An Analytic Take: Jason Chimera is a downgrade on Matt Martin

ownthepuck

The Islanders entered today with three holes in their forward corps - two in the top six, and on the fourth line with the loss of Matt Martin.  To fill the fourth line hole, the Isles signed Jason Chimera for two years at $2.25 Million.  That's not cheap for a fourth liner.  Unfortunately, the Isles may have actually downgraded despite spending more.

As the chart above shows, Chimera is a different type of fourth liner than Matt Martin.  He's actually able to put up points at even strength, whereas Martin scoring was not very common.  He puts a good amount of shots on net and shoots at an okay clip (but below average) - unlike Martin, if Chimera is out there on a 6 on 5, it's not wholly outrageous (still bad).

Of course the cost of that is that Chimera is a black hole possession wise.  Matt Martin suppressed shots against, which allowed the fourth line to be an okay line defensively.  Jason Chimera.....can't do that.  So if Cappy puts out the fourth line against opposing top lines like he did last year, Chimera will be a liability.

Moreover, and here's the real problem - Chimera is 37.  He's only going to be getting worse at this point, and he's at the age where players often fall off a cliff.  So while Chimera is not technically a downgrade on Martin if he plays like he did the last three years, he's not likely to actually play at that level.

In short, this is not a good signing for the Isles.  There were a few cheaper forward options - some of whom are still unsigned - who they could've signed for a non scoring fourth line role that Martin played.  Instead they signed a guy who requires a different role for a greater amount of $ and who is likely to decline.