FanPost

Islanders Analysis: Good goaltending, offense undone by poor defense, PK

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I like to start my analyses with my conclusions. So here they are :

1) The penalty kill is very poor.

2) The 5 v 5 defense is very poor.

3) The 5 v 5 offense is surprisingly quite good.

4) The power play has been unlucky.

5) The 5 v 5 goaltending has been very good.

The site xtrahockeystats.com keeps the statistics expected goals for and expected goals against. They get these by assigning a probability to each shot based on comparable shots in a database. It takes into account more than just shot location. It takes into account whether it was from a pass across the ice, whether it was a breakaway and other factors.

Based on xtrahockeystats.com's expected goals the Islanders have the worst 5 v 5 defense in the NHL. They have the highest 5 v 5 EGA/60 (0.88) of any team in the league. Their actual GA/60 is also poor (0.80) but is significantly better than the EGA/60. This suggests excellent goaltending (or just plain good luck).

Also based on this their 5 v 5 offense is quite good as their EGF/60 is 0.83 and their actual GF/60 is right in line at 0.82.

They don't seem to have expected goals for special teams situations so for that I look at shot metrics. The penalty kill allows the 2nd most shots on a per minute basis in the league. That's bad.

The power play, however, ranks 14th in shots generated an a per minute basis. That's pretty good but not great. They have not scored at the rate which that would predict. I attribute that to bad luck.

The irony of the Islanders season so far is that they are outscoring their opponents at 5 v 5 by 61 to 59. They have allowed 20 power play goals against and have scored only 11.

So I believe that, once again, the goaltending is papering over a terrible defensive system. Their 5 v 5 offense is really ok. Cappy's impression that the offense is the problem is contradicted by the numbers.

I believe that they collapse around their own net in their own end way too much and that this is why they allow so many shots against and such good quality shots against. You can clog the middle of the ice but that allows lots of time and space on the outside, especially for the opponents d-men at the points, and eventually the d breaks down and good chances result from it.

I believe they need their defense to spread out more and immediate pressure on the puck carrier. That is how you'll prevent them from making plays. Not by clogging the crease area. Also it makes it easier to break the puck out as it gives the defensemen an easier outlet when they retrieve a loose puck. I think a similar philosophy plagues the penalty kill.

The problem here is that Cappy can point to the 61 to 59 goals at 5v5 and use that to defend his defensive philosophy. I think that is the problem. Good goaltending is a blessing but it can also be a curse when it allows management to delude themselves.

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