Our seasonlong, weekly power rankings and media punditry roundup typically waits for the opinion polls to update, but let's face it... nobody's going to pay attention to what happened during the regular season once playoffs games have begun (and rightfully so). So we're going to put up the two publications' opinions that have posted thus far and add the others later when (if) they ever get around to it.
Meanwhile, the usual LHH Power Rankings get a few more columns so it looks all special-like.
Weekly Roundup of Opinion Polls
(Can you "round up" a pair of things? Or is this more of a matching thing?)
|Site||Updated||New Ranking||Prior Ranking||Comments|
|ESPN||4/13/2015||13||14||The Islanders gave away home-ice advantage in the waning seconds of Game 82 against Columbus, and now we'll see if that hurts them against the big, talented Capitals. Jaroslav Halak has to be better or this will be over in a hurry.|
|USA Today||4/13/2015||9||9||John Tavares finishes second in scoring race with 86 points.|
|Average||11||11||More later (maybe)!|
OK no reason to dwell much on this now. As for the Power Rankings, I figured we'd see how the final rankings stand up to a few fancy stats:
LHH Power Rankings
First, the usual pertinent info. Every regular season game has now been added:
|GP||Reg W||OT W||SO||OT L||Reg L||LHH Pts||LHH Pct||LHH Rating||Playoffs?|
|1||New York Rangers||82||43||6||9||2||22||313||0.636||119||Y|
|2||Tampa Bay Lightning||82||43||4||8||3||24||304||0.618||116||Y|
|4||St. Louis Blues||82||37||5||13||3||24||287||0.583||112||Y|
|11||New York Islanders||82||34||6||13||1||28||269||0.547||107||Y|
|12||Los Angeles Kings||82||37||1||10||7||27||270||0.549||105|
|13||Detroit Red Wings||82||32||7||14||4||25||270||0.549||105||Y|
|18||San Jose Sharks||82||34||2||10||3||33||248||0.504||101|
|21||Columbus Blue Jackets||82||28||5||11||3||35||227||0.461||98|
|25||New Jersey Devils||82||26||1||12||7||36||210||0.427||87|
|26||Toronto Maple Leafs||82||22||3||10||3||44||180||0.366||85|
Ottawa and Calgary finish outside the top 16 (but not too far out), while Los Angeles and Dallas are left to wonder if a stronger strength of schedule did them in a bit (the fact that Ottawa doesn't play in the West notwithstanding). The Rankings Index is supposed to have roughly half the teams above 100 and half below, but as the season wore on, the number at or above 100 slowly increased. This is likely due to the extraordinary number of tanking teams this year. A strong draft will do that, I guess.
So, how strong are the Rangers, if they're that much higher than everyone else? Do the Kings really deserve to be in the playoffs? I figured a few fancy stats might help answer these questions, so I turned to War on Ice to see if there were any correlations to either possession numbers (in this case, Corsi in close situations) or luck (PDO). Here's what I found. I'll explain the columns below:
|LHH Rating||CFC||CFC Rank||PDO||PDO Rank||Composite||Comp Rank|
|1||New York Rangers||119||49.7||19||101.9||1||50.64||16|
|2||Tampa Bay Lightning||116||53.8||4||101||7||54.34||2|
|4||St. Louis Blues||112||51.2||14||100.5||10||51.46||12|
|11||New York Islanders||107||52.9||8||99.3||26||52.53||8|
|12||Los Angeles Kings||105||53.9||3||100.2||14||54.01||5|
|13||Detroit Red Wings||105||53.6||6||99.9||19||53.55||7|
|18||San Jose Sharks||101||51.8||11||99.1||27||51.33||13|
|21||Columbus Blue Jackets||98||46.3||26||99.7||20||46.16||24|
|25||New Jersey Devils||87||47.7||23||100.7||8||48.03||23|
|26||Toronto Maple Leafs||85||45.2||27||99.4||24||44.93||28|
So it's still ranked by LHH's power rankings index. The next two columns are Corsi in close situations, and each team's rank. Oddly enough, many of the best possession teams finished in the middle of the pack of our power rankings. The highest rated team in our rankings, the Rangers, are actually below average in Corsi Close.
Maybe the Power Rankings favor lucky teams more? That's the next two columns: PDO (all situations since we are talking about luck after all) and each team's PDO ranking. The Rangers and Canadians are the two highest PDO teams and there they are in first and third of our power rankings. Three of our four worst teams in the power rankings are the bottom three in PDO. But all other teams are rather mixed. Our Islanders, for example, are one of the "unluckiest" teams in the league, yet finished 11th in the power rankings.
Maybe if you took both into account? The last two columns are the Composite (Corsi close × PDO), and the ranking for each team in that regard, and again things are a bit mixed, but the correlation is at least somewhat there. Only two teams (San Jose and Boston) are in the top 16 in terms of the Composite score, yet are outside the top 16 in our power rankings. LA held their own in terms of possession, and were above average in PDO, so they seem to be extremely unlucky in not making the playoffs.
But all in all, I think I just concluded that it's better to be lucky AND good. Which we all knew already. I'll shut up now. Except that I firmly believe that PDO isn't entirely luck... unless you consider having a generational talent in goal, or a host of really good snipers as "lucky."
Anyways, on to the playoffs. Let's go Islanders!!!!