There's been a significant amount of hand wringing about the Islanders recent play. Here's a look at three key elements to a team's success, and how the Islanders have fared.
All of the following numbers are for 5v5 minutes, adjusted for score, and represent rolling ten game averages.
First up is the one most people look at first to see how a team has been playing: CF%.
So we can see that the Islanders have basically ranged from good to dominant over the course of the season. Lately we've been more in the merely good range, but still good, and generally around our season average of 54%.
Next up is Corsi Against, a good barometer of shot suppression, which is pretty important.
Here the Islanders have ranged from exceptional to not at all good. Currently for season-long averages, Detroit is best at 45 CA per 60 and Buffalo is worst at 66 CA per 60. So you can see how the Islanders have really run the gamut this year in this regard. Unfortunately, the not at all good portion has come over the past month. Fortunately, it has generally started to trend in a positive direction. Hopefully that can continue, and get back under 55, which would put them into the average range. Getting under 50 would be ideal. But if there is a serious reason for concern, it's this. Though we've continued to win the possession battle, we've gotten into too many track meets, and high-event hockey can hurt you.
Finally, we'll peek at PDO, which generally captures a team's luck.
Lastly, we can see the Isles luck has been up and down this year, which makes sense, obviously. But we can see that lately they haven't had a ton of bounces go their way. Given their other struggles, it's easy to see why they've been losing close games lately, even if they haven't been playing too poorly. In essence, while earlier in the season they were good enough to overcome bad luck, that hasn't been the case lately, and we've seen them come in closer to .500 hockey.
Summing up, there may be reason for small amounts of concern, but it's not time to get on the ledge yet. If they can get back to suppressing shots more effectively, we'll very likely see them get back to the team we saw at times earlier this year.