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LHH Power Rankings, January 6th, 2015: New Year's Resolutions Edition

New Year, new smaht and hahd attitude!

By ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles

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Promise us less of this.
Promise us less of this.
Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

I haven't broken a New Year's resolution in over 15 years. Mostly because that's when I decided to stop making them. The opinion polls seem to think the Isles don't need much of one, either.

Weekly Roundup of Opinion Polls

Site Updated New Ranking Prior Ranking Comments
1 CBS 1/6/2015 5 6 An ugly loss to the Oilers somewhat mars a recent stretch of fantastic hockey from the Islanders. They're 7-2-1 in their last 10 and it seems like they are the good kind of streaky this year.
2 ESPN 1/5/2015 5 9 OK, so they lost to the lowly Oilers on Sunday night. Hey, someone has to lose to them once in a while. That doesn't take away from the awesome season the Isles are having.
3 TSN 1/6/2015 7 9 7-2-1 in the past 10 games is pretty nice, but Sunday night's 5-2 loss in Edmonton (Edmonton!) is tough to swallow.
4 Fox 1/1/2015 7 7 New York has moved into a tie with the slumping Penguins atop the Metropolitan Division. The Islanders are one of the biggest reasons the Eastern Conference playoffs look so much more interesting this season.
5 USA Today --- --- --- None this week
6 SI 1/6/2015 7 5 Basic discussion was over the three-goal choke games. Go to link to read the full text.
Average 6 7 Sure, we think you're good, but... you didn't think we'd let the Oilers thing go, did you?

If the opinion polls had a resolution for the Isles, it'd be "Don't play bad teams" I guess.

LHH Power Rankings

For games through 1/5/15.

GP Reg W OT W SO OT L Reg L LHH Pts LHH Pct LHH Rating
1 Chicago Blackhawks 39 19 2 6 1 11 142 0.607 120
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 39 19 3 5 2 10 145 0.620 117
3 Nashville Predators 38 18 3 7 1 9 143 0.627 117
4 Tampa Bay Lightning 41 22 2 5 0 12 155 0.630 116
5 Montreal Canadiens 39 20 1 6 1 11 144 0.615 115
6 New York Islanders 39 16 4 7 0 12 133 0.568 113
7 Anaheim Ducks 41 17 4 9 2 9 149 0.606 112
8 St. Louis Blues 39 17 3 5 1 13 131 0.560 110
9 Vancouver Canucks 37 17 3 3 2 12 127 0.572 110
10 New York Rangers 36 16 3 6 0 11 126 0.583 110
11 San Jose Sharks 40 18 1 6 1 14 132 0.550 109
12 Toronto Maple Leafs 40 17 1 4 2 16 122 0.508 109
13 Washington Capitals 38 16 3 4 4 11 128 0.561 109
14 Detroit Red Wings 39 16 3 8 2 10 136 0.581 108
15 Los Angeles Kings 40 17 1 6 4 12 132 0.550 102
16 Dallas Stars 38 16 0 3 5 14 115 0.504 99
17 Winnipeg Jets 40 15 3 5 4 13 125 0.521 98
18 Minnesota Wild 37 14 2 3 3 15 107 0.482 98
19 Calgary Flames 40 13 5 4 2 16 114 0.475 97
20 Florida Panthers 37 11 1 10 4 11 108 0.486 93
21 Boston Bruins 40 12 5 6 2 15 114 0.475 91
22 Ottawa Senators 38 10 3 6 4 15 98 0.430 91
23 Philadelphia Flyers 39 11 3 5 2 18 97 0.415 90
24 Columbus Blue Jackets 37 11 2 5 2 17 93 0.419 89
25 New Jersey Devils 41 11 1 8 1 20 96 0.390 87
26 Colorado Avalanche 39 8 2 7 6 16 89 0.380 83
27 Arizona Coyotes 38 9 3 5 2 19 85 0.373 79
28 Carolina Hurricanes 39 9 1 5 1 23 75 0.321 77
29 Buffalo Sabres 40 7 1 7 2 23 71 0.296 76
30 Edmonton Oilers 40 8 0 4 6 22 72 0.300 73

A bit of a surprise as the Isles move up a bit, with a larger index number. This is likely from many of their vanquished opponents having good weeks, rather than from the Isles' own play, but a 2-1 record is pretty good anyways. Meanwhile, people who have been complaining that the Maple Leafs were rated higher than the Islanders can finally rest well at night. Their recent play has them down to a tie for 11th.

Meanwhile, here's a quick idea of the significance of regulation wins...

The team with the worst record right now is the 29th ranked Buffalo Sabres (a win percentage, by our scoring system, of .296). Beating them would give a base score of 7 × .296 = 2.072. To get the same score by beating a team in overtime (where the multiplier is 5), that opponent would have to have a win percentage of .414, which is basically where the 23rd ranked Flyers are. If the game goes to a shootout (multiplier of 4, regardless of outcome), the opponent would have to have a win percentage of .518 (17th ranked Winnipeg Jets territory).

If you run that same example with a middle of the road team, it's even more stark. A regulation win over 15th ranked Los Angeles is better than an overtime win against any other club. It's as good as an OT win over a team with a percentage of .770. No team is even close to that. Winning in overtime is better than losing, of course, but winning in regulation is far better. You might argue that it doesn't matter in the NHL's standings, and that's true, but as I have argued before, a truly elite team closes out games in 60 minutes, rather than hanging on until four-on-four drills or a skills competition

So when the Islanders cough up a lead, only to win it in OT or a shootout, it makes a difference. If I had one thing to recommend to the Isles for a new year's resolution, it would be to develop a killer instinct. I know chokes happen sometimes, but if most of those three goal leads never vanished, they'd be first overall.

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