NYI 2013-14 Rookies Elite in CorsiOn (with adjustments)

Corsi sandwich. - Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

The following charts help to show how well the Islanders' group of 2013-14 rookies did, according to Corsi.

This first chart basically shows that, according to Corsi numbers, the Isles had five of the top six rookie skaters in the Metro division, in terms of possession. The two adjustments for this chart are:

QoT-QoC (-0.70)

This means that for every 1.00 of CorsiOn by the rookie's teammates, the rookie was docked 0.70 CorsiOn. This helps adjust so that it evens out rookies on strong possession teams with rookies on weak possession teams.... It also helps adjust for a player lining up next to an especially strong or weak teammate (possessionally), unless the two players are on the ice together an extremely high amount of the rookie's time-on-ice, at even-strength.... It also adjust for quality-of-competition, but that is a much smaller adjustment than quality-of-teammates.

ZoneStarts (-0.34)

This means that for every percentage-point above 50% for offensive zone starts, the rookie was docked 0.34 CorsiOn. So this adjusts for players being "buried" with lots of defensive zone starts or players being "protected" with lots of offensive zone starts.

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As you can see, the NYI rookies were not only impressive according to Corsi numbers among Metro rookies, but only Kucherov in the Atlantic Division played nearly similar amount of total TOI minutes as Nelson/Donovan/deHaan and managed close to the same Corsi score. Rookies in the West faired a little better, with Toffoli, Maroon, Vatanen, Marincin, Hertl, and Arcobello putting up impressive Corsi numbers..... Still, NYI have three or four of the top 10 rookies for Corsi numbers, according to this chart.... Lee and others didn't have a solid sample size, but they showed promise.

EDM, ANA, and TBL rookies also did well. They are differentiated by color. Notice how EDM landed two rookies high on the chart, despite the team putting up poor Corsi numbers.... That is what the adjustments are meant to do. Without adjustments, Marcinin was -5.28 Corsi On and Arcobello -4.24.... CorsiRel, however, adjusts too far, as Marcinin is 15.5 in CorsiRel, due to his EDM teammates being so poor in Corsi stats.

Note that this doesn't necessarily mean that Nelson, Donovan, and deHaan will have solid Corsi numbers over their careers, but their 750+ minutes (each) last season was a pretty good sample size. (Each of their WOWY numbers supports that they helped teammates have better Corsi numbers when they were on the ice their rookie season.)

This next chart narrows the rookies down to players with 40+ GP and a positive CorsiOn score.

I also added two adjustments for this chart:

On-Ice Faceoff % (-0.41)

Winning a faceoff in the defensive zone actually leads to a team having a better chance of taking the next shot attempt than losing a faceoff in the offensive zone. So this helps boost players who are on the ice when their team loses a lot of faceoffs. (And also docks players who are on the ice when their team win a lot of faceoffs.)... This is a slightly larger adjustment per percentage-point than Zone-Starts, but the range is much less, as faceoff % is generally 45%-55%.... So the adjustment per player is generally less, but can still be substantial.

PDO (+0.025, or +1 for every 40 PDO)

I am figuring out whether it is mostly score-effects that causes this or whether it is because goalies allowing goals doesn't produce a rebound chance, but either way there is a correlation, and either way there should be an adjustment.... This may be adjusting too far for the NYI players in the negative direction if it is mostly due to scoring effects, since Isles actually had the lead a pretty good amount of time last season, despite a low PDO (remember the 2-goal leads blown?).... Regardless, the adjustment for On-Ice Faceoff was greater in the positive direction for NYI rookies, as you can see, below:


This chart above suggests that NYI had three of the top seven rookies last season, in terms of CorsiOn, with those four adjustments.... And the other four were each from four different teams.

Now let's take a look at 2011-12 and 2012-13 rookies.... For 2011-12, I kept the same minimums (40 GP and 12 pts). For the lockout season I lowered it to 30 GP and 10 pts.... I only used the initial two adjustments for this chart coming up, because I don't have on-ice faceoff% for players before the 2013-14 season. (So this chart doesn't account for PDO either-- omitting both helps to keep NYI rookies similar relative to others on the chart.)


Some impressive company here, with Voynov, Saad, Irwin, Hamilton, Tarasenko, and Gallagher-- each of whom had highly regarded rookie seasons.... I don't know Drew Shore of FLA well, but his WOWYs were quite impressive his rookie season.

Muzzin did play the bulk of his time (1288 of 1843 minutes) with Doughty. But get this: the two together were 60.6% CF. Muzzin apart from Doughty (554 minutes) was 64.5%. Doughty apart from Muzzin was 55.2%.... I'm sure Doughty probably faced tougher competition apart from Muzzin than Muzzin did apart from Doughty, but that's still very impressive for Muzzin.... LAK land three rookies onto the chart with Muzzin, Toffoli, and Voynov.

So according to the chart above the most impressive rookies for Corsi the past three seasons in the Metro were three NYIs and two NYRs. And the five played more minutes than anyone with impressive Corsi numbers in the Atlantic.

Perhaps this is part of the reason that the Isles have been slow to bring their rookies into the NHL. Many team's rookies struggle with possession numbers, while the 2013-14 NYI class was arguably the best group of rookies possessionally in the NHL the past three seasons. (Out of 90 groups.)


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