Although anything is possible, Ryan Strome will most likely start the season in Bridgeport. The few available spots in the Islanders' forward corps were filled in the offseason by acquisitions. On top of that, Jack Capuano and Garth Snow have strongly hinted that Brock Nelson would be first in line to fill any holes.

This would be a mistake. Strome is an elite talent highly touted by experts. His point production has been stellar and consistent: an eye-popping 1.63 point per game (PPG) as a 17 year old in the year before the draft, dropping to a "mere" 1.48 PPG in his first post draft year and increasing to 1.77 PPG this past season. His stats in Juniors are below

He has no gaping holes in his game (in Pronman's words, "not a whole lot to nitpick about Strome. He does not have a glaring weakness.") and no character issues. At 20 years old he's ready to help the team. Is he perfect? No, but neither is Peter Regin or Kyle Okposo. Sure Strome can improve his game in the AHL but he can also do so in the NHL.

I also thought that putting Strome in the AHL would nearly be unprecedented. My sense was that high end forward prospects with no glaring holes in their game who continue to progress after they are drafted nearly always make the NHL roster within a year or two of their draft year.

To check whether this impression was correct, I looked at all top 10 forward draft picks since the 2000 Entry Draft to determine how many were not given a spot on their NHL team's opening roster by their 3rd post draft season. I didn't include players who were given meaningful NHL experience in their first or second seasons (and presumably weren't given a roster spot because they failed in their earlier audition), players kept off their team due to the 2004 lockout or players who were likely unavailable to their teams because they were in college or a European league.

As it turns out, out of 80 draftees, only 6 players failed to make their team's NHL roster in their third post draft year. In addition, not one of these 6 players matched Strome's level of production in Juniors and most encountered significant issues in their development after they were drafted. But, as you will see, there is one draft pick who, while not matching Strome's production, came pretty close and serves as a great template for Strome to follow.

Mikhail Yakubov

Drafted: 10th overall, 2000 Entry Draft, Chicago Blackhawks
NHL Stats: 53 GP, 10 G, 2A.

Pre/post-draft Career:

Comment: While I don't know much about Yakubov, based on his stats, he didn't do much in his post-draft career to justify a promotion to the NHL. Yakubov played in the RSL (the predecessor to the KHL) in his post draft season and went scoreless, followed by a season in Juniors, where he scored a respectable, if not spectacular, 89 points in 71 games. He spent the next season in the AHL and didn't make his NHL debut until his fourth post-draft season.

Andrei Kostitsyn

Drafted: 10th overall, 2003 Entry Draft. Montreal Canadiens
NHL Stats: 398 GP, 103 G, 119 A.

Comment: Again, unlike Strome, Kostitsyn's post-draft career wasn't that strong. He scored one point in the KHL in his post draft year and was assigned to the AHL the next season, where he scored 23 points in 66 games. He did not make the team out of camp the next season but was a mid-season callup.

Benoit Pouliot

Drafted: 4th overall, 2005 Entry Draft, Minnesota Wild
NHL Stats: 291 GP, 61 G, 63 A.

Comment: Superficially, Strome's junior career echoes Pouliot's: Both burst on the scene relatively late and shot up the prospect rankings based on a single season's performance. However, Pouliot's numbers never matched Strome's, who was nearly a year younger than Pouliot at their repsective drafts. In addition, Pouliot's numbers in the AHL (where he played in his second post draft season) were not impressive for a high end prospect (36 points in 67 games).

Zach Hamill

Drafted: 8th overall, 2007 Entry Draft, Boston Bruins
NHL Stats: 20 GP, 0 G, 4 A.

Comment: In his first post draft season in juniors, Hamill scored 75 points in 65 games, a unremarkable level of production for a 19 year old and well below Strome's numbers at that age. Hamill played in the AHL and produced mediocre numbers for a high end draft pick -- 26 points in 65 games.

Logan Couture

Drafted: 9th overall, 2007 Entry Draft, Boston Bruins
NHL Stats: 232 GP, 89 G, 78 A.

Logan Couture had a solid Juniors career, consistently scoring significantly above a point per game pace. Yet despite his performance, San Jose assigned him to their AHL affiliate in his third post-draft year. San Jose's development decisions seemed to pan out as Couture has established himself as one of the league's better forwards. However, we shouldn't draw to much from San Jose's handling of Couture.

First of all, he never matched Strome's performance in Juniors and at the time of his draft he was not as highly touted as Strome at the time of the draft and was considered a bit of an overdraft by San Jose at 9th overall. Second, San Jose was a perennial Cup contender at the time. In his third draft year, San Jose's forward corps included Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley, Ryan Clowe and Joe Pavelski. San Jose finished first in its division and went to the conference finals. There was simply no room on the roster for Couture.

Scott Glennie

Drafted: 8th overall, 2009 Entry Draft, Dallas Stars
NHL Stats: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A.

2007-08	Brandon Wheat Kings	WHL	61	26	32	58	50	10	|	Playoffs	6	1	0	1	7	2
	Canada Western U17	WHC-17	6	4	6	10	2		|
2008-09	Brandon Wheat Kings	WHL	55	28	42	70	25	22	|	Playoffs	12	3	15	18	11	10
2009-10	Brandon Wheat Kings	WHL	66	32	57	89	50	36	|	Playoffs	15	3	7	10	14	2
2010-11	Brandon Wheat Kings	WHL	70	35	56	91	58	4	|	Playoffs	6	3	7	10	6	0
	Texas Stars	AHL	4	0	0	0	2	-2	|	Playoffs	6	1	0	1	2	0
2011-12	Dallas Stars	NHL	1	0	0	0	2	0	|
	Texas Stars	AHL	70	12	25	37	26	-8	|
2012-13	Texas Stars	AHL	37	5	9	14	10	4	|	Playoffs	9	0	0	0	8	0

Like Logan Couture, Scott Glennie's Junior career was solid. However, there were significant questions surrounding his game as he finished Juniors (was ranked 64th best prospect by the Hockey News in 2011) and his development was interrupted by a concussion during training camp, damaging his chance at making the NHL club out of camp in his third post-draft season. But, again, his post draft performance in Juniors did not match Strome's stratospheric numbers.

The focus on these six distracts from the fact that 75 other prospects that were given a shot by the beginning of their third post-draft season. And in fact, the vast majority of those prospects (approximately 65 of them) got a shot at the NHL by their second post-draft season. So, yes, assigning Strome to Bridgeport to start the season would be highly unusual,

Who knows. Maybe management surprises me and Strome gets a spot on the team. But if he does, his development would be entirely consistent with how nearly every other prospect in his position has been handled in the recent past.