Being Reasonable About Garth Snow’s Second Rounders

Since I love spreadsheets so so much, I decided to soldier on and run the analysis I did regarding of Garth Snow's 1st rounders to his 2nd round picks.

To explain, what I am trying to do is to determine the overall success rate of NHL draftees by using a fairly large set of "test" data: the 5 entry drafts of 2003-2007, and using that rate as a standard against which to compare Garth Snow's picks. I measured a draftee's success by assigning him one of four categories based on his NHL career (or lack thereof): All-stars, Key Players (non All-star top 6 F/top 4 D/starting G), NHLers (any regular NHLer not in the prior two categories) and Busts (players who never became regulars for any extended period).

Here are the rates for second rounders picked in the 2003-2007 entry drafts:

Picks 31- 40 (50 total picks)
Allstars: 1 2.00%
Key Players: 4 8.00%
NHLers: 5 10.00%
Busts: 40 80.00%

Picks 41- 50 (50 total picks)
Allstars: 3 6.00%
Key Players: 6 12.00%
NHLers: 9 18.00%
Busts: 32 64.00%

Picks 51 - End of round 68 total picks)
Allstars: 2 2.94%
Key Players: 4 5.88%
NHLers: 15 22.06%
Busts: 47 69.12%

The surprise is the relative lack of success of picks in the 31-40 range. This is likely just a statistical anomaly or an indication of how much of a crap shoot player development is as you get into the later rounds. (This also suggests that breaking down the round in this manner may not make much sense).

Let's compare these rates to Garth's second rounders. Garth has picked six second rounders: four in the 31-40 category (Trivino, Ness, Koskinnen and Mayfield) and two in the 51 and higher category (Hamonic and Sundstrom). A yield of two successful NHLers would just about match the success rate in our data set, meaning that anything better would be above average.

To date, one of Garth's picks is already an NHLer: Travis Hamonic. Thus, two additional NHLers would need to emerge from this group for Garth to beat the average. Already, one of them -- Trivino -- looks like a bust and another -- Ness -- looks fairly close to the NHL, while Mayfield, Koskinnen and Sundstrom seem to be developing nicely. It should also be kept in mind that Hamonic is no marginal NHLer -- he is a top 4 defenseman who is likely to keep improving. Less than 10% of second rounders reach that level of success.

So while we need to reserve judgment on Garth's second rounders, his record is looking fairly solid thus far.

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