Nino struggling without Johansen - Portland Winterhawks plus/minus WOWY

The Portland Winterhawks are a very interesting club - just generally due to the wealth of talent they've had on their team over the last few years and of course specifically for all Islanders fans and Swiss thanks to Nino Niederreiter (and Sven Bärtschi). Particularly this season, with two top-5 picks of last year's draft as well as three guys likely to be selected in the 1st round this year, they've been so deep it's tough to tell who's doing what for them, who's driving the bus and who on the other hand might mainly benefit from having all that talent around him. That's why I took a closer look at their plus/minus stats.

Plus/minus is far from a perfect stat of course. Even over the course of a whole season the numbers can be skewed quite a bit due to unconsistent goaltending or (un)lucky shooting, as we saw for the Islanders last season. And just due to the nature of the juniors game this might easily be more of a problem even down there. Also, without having watched any games the numbers are more difficult to interpret in the absence of any advanced stats, such as quality of competition, etc. But still, as they don't track any shot metrics, in order to get an idea of the overall game of the kids, plus/minus is still the best stat available in juniors hockey.

By the way, I'm not generally an expert when it comes to the Winterhawks. So, would be cool to read in the comments from everyone who's seen them play and can add stuff regarding who was used in what kind of roles, etc.

Anyway, some of the results might not mean a whole lot, but others provide a hint at what should be considered when talking about expectations for the future of these kids. Most notably, it looks like Nino Niederreiter has struggled away from Ryan Johansen - in fact the Winterhawks have been outscored marginally over the past two seasons when Nino was on the ice without Johansen.

First of all, a quick look at the Winterhawks' most important players. You can find detailed roster info or traditional stats on the official site.

		birth	Position	NHL Draft
8	Rattie	1993	RW	2011, 1st round
11	Gabriel	1991	LW	signed as free agent by Columbus
14	Cunningham	1990	C	2010, #96 Boston
17	Boychuk	1991	LW	2010, #208 Buffalo
18	Ross	1992	LW	2010, #43 Toronto
19	Johansen	1992	C	2010, #4 Columbus
22	Niederreiter	1992	RW	2010, #5 New York Islanders
27	Bärtschi	1992	LW	2011, 1st round
28	Leipsic	1994	C	2012

2	Rutkowski	1992	D	2010, #137 Colorado
6	Ponich	1991	D	2009, #48 St Louis
7	Morrow	1992	D	2011, 1st round
26	Wotherspoon	1993	D	2011, 2nd round
37	Aronson	1991	D	2010, #78 Nashville
44	Wrenn	1991	D	2009, #43 San Jose
51	Pouliot	1994	D	2012

Time On Ice summary

One thing I've always wondered is how much their coaches juggled lines. Since they don't even track TOI totals in the juniors it's impossible to get an exact messure of how much time certain guys spent with certain other players. But the plus/minus WOWY numbers are a decent approximation. So, I went through all the game reports (regular season and playoffs) and counted how many EV goals happened on either side while a certain player was on the ice and then calculated the fraction of these goals a certain other player was on the ice at the same time. For example, I found that Nino was on for 81 EV goals for and 50 EV goals against (131 in sum). Johansen was on the ice for 86 of these 131 goals, meaning that Nino spent around 0.66 of his time together with Johansen. The table below shows these numbers for all their important players:

		2	7	6	8	11	14	17	18	19	22	26	27	28	37	44	51
8	Rattie	0.32	0.35	0.13	1.00	0.01	0.46	0.06	0.09	0.18	0.04	0.26	0.79	0.13	0.44	0.20	0.24
11	Gabriel	0.39	0.22	0.37	0.02	1.00	0.03	0.27	0.42	0.29	0.27	0.27	0.05	0.03	0.32	0.03	0.27
14	Cunningham	0.26	0.32	0.04	0.70	0.02	1.00	0.07	0.15	0.03	0.14	0.30	0.67	0.03	0.49	0.35	0.21
17	Boychuk	0.32	0.38	0.11	0.12	0.17	0.09	1.00	0.02	0.13	0.12	0.32	0.02	0.36	0.30	0.21	0.29
18	Ross	0.45	0.36	0.18	0.12	0.21	0.14	0.02	1.00	0.57	0.57	0.17	0.03	0.06	0.40	0.16	0.21
19	Johansen	0.40	0.32	0.20	0.21	0.11	0.02	0.08	0.45	1.00	0.57	0.23	0.22	0.04	0.39	0.21	0.19
22	Nino	0.40	0.37	0.10	0.05	0.12	0.12	0.08	0.53	0.66	1.00	0.21	0.12	0.05	0.41	0.25	0.24
27	Bärtschi	0.35	0.28	0.14	0.81	0.02	0.45	0.01	0.02	0.19	0.09	0.25	1.00	0.16	0.41	0.24	0.28
28	Leipsic	0.31	0.34	0.13	0.28	0.03	0.04	0.41	0.09	0.08	0.09	0.29	0.34	1.00	0.29	0.23	0.34

2	Rutkowski	1.00	0.53	0.27	0.33	0.14	0.18	0.17	0.32	0.36	0.31	0.06	0.35	0.15	0.07	0.03	0.05
7	Morrow	0.58	1.00	0.02	0.39	0.08	0.24	0.22	0.27	0.31	0.31	0.10	0.30	0.17	0.11	0.09	0.10
6	Ponich	0.63	0.04	1.00	0.30	0.30	0.07	0.14	0.30	0.42	0.18	0.03	0.32	0.14	0.15	0.07	0.04
26	Wotherspoon	0.08	0.13	0.02	0.38	0.13	0.28	0.24	0.18	0.29	0.23	1.00	0.36	0.19	0.32	0.10	0.33
37	Aronson	0.06	0.10	0.06	0.43	0.11	0.31	0.16	0.27	0.33	0.30	0.21	0.39	0.13	1.00	0.33	0.22
44	Wrenn	0.05	0.14	0.05	0.34	0.02	0.40	0.19	0.19	0.32	0.33	0.12	0.40	0.18	0.58	1.00	0.10
51	Pouliot	0.08	0.14	0.03	0.37	0.14	0.21	0.23	0.23	0.25	0.27	0.34	0.42	0.23	0.35	0.09	1.00

All entries in bold indicate a number bigger than 0.33. So, if you read from the left, for example for Nino, you can see that Rutkowski (2), Morrow (7), Ross (18), Johansen (19) and Aronson (37) were his most frequent line mates. Clearly, Bärtschi and Rattie played together almost exclusively, often centered by Cunningham who joined the Winterhawks later in the season. Ross-Johansen-Nino were together a lot, too, with guys like Gabriel, Boychuk, Leipsic and others rotated into either line.

Plus/minus summary

So, going from how often certain guys played together I went to how well they did when playing together. It's probable that a couple of SH goals entered my data, but pratically I tried to grasp only even-strength goals of 10-11 (regular season and playoffs, excluding empty-net situations). For example, I simply took a look at all EV goals scored when Nino was on and then checked for who was on at the same time. So, Nino was as mentioned on for 81 EV goals for and 50 EV goals against (+31). Johansen was on together with Nino for 58 of Nino's 81 goals for and 28 of his goals against (+30). This means that Nino's plus/minus rating when on without Johansen amounts to +1 (+23/-22), opposed to +30 when on together with Johansen, and thus +31 for him overall.

As it's tough to get a good read on plus/minus numbers with differing totals I calculated goal ratios. In the above example that gives us numbers of 0.62 (Nino overall) - meaning that 0.62 of all goals scored while Nino was on the ice were in Portland's favor - 0.67 (Nino-Johansen together), 0.51 (Nino without Johansen). Before I'll take a closer look at some interesting players, here's the summary of the plus/minus ratings of the player on the left together with the player on top. Entries in bold this time indicate the totals for the respective players.

goal ratio with:

		2	7	6	8	11	14	17	18	19	22	26	27	28	37	44	51
8	Rattie	0.61	0.56	0.64	0.59	1.00	0.60	0.45	0.73	0.59	0.57	0.56	0.59	0.68	0.62	0.68	0.50
11	Gabriel	0.57	0.46	0.64	1.00	0.54	1.00	0.38	0.64	0.71	0.69	0.38	0.67	0.00	0.63	0.50	0.63
14	Cunningham	0.60	0.59	0.40	0.60	1.00	0.59	0.38	0.47	0.75	0.56	0.59	0.64	0.67	0.63	0.65	0.50
17	Boychuk	0.55	0.49	0.50	0.45	0.38	0.38	0.50	0.50	0.67	0.45	0.45	0.00	0.67	0.57	0.47	0.52
18	Ross	0.56	0.65	0.59	0.73	0.64	0.47	0.50	0.62	0.64	0.58	0.57	0.75	0.43	0.60	0.68	0.77
19	Johansen	0.62	0.65	0.74	0.59	0.71	0.67	0.67	0.64	0.66	0.67	0.60	0.58	0.67	0.64	0.66	0.76
22	Nino	0.58	0.59	0.77	0.57	0.69	0.56	0.45	0.58	0.67	0.62	0.52	0.69	0.57	0.63	0.61	0.68
27	Bärtschi	0.63	0.62	0.65	0.59	0.67	0.63	0.00	0.75	0.58	0.69	0.53	0.59	0.59	0.61	0.63	0.48
28	Leipsic	0.60	0.67	0.30	0.68	0.00	0.67	0.67	0.43	0.67	0.57	0.65	0.59	0.59	0.61	0.50	0.56

2	Rutkowski	0.57	0.60	0.59	0.61	0.57	0.60	0.55	0.56	0.62	0.58	0.30	0.63	0.60	0.64	0.60	0.56
7	Morrow	0.59	0.57	0.33	0.55	0.46	0.58	0.49	0.65	0.65	0.59	0.19	0.62	0.67	0.59	0.57	0.44
6	Ponich	0.59	0.33	0.62	0.64	0.64	0.40	0.50	0.59	0.74	0.77	0.50	0.65	0.30	0.82	0.60	1.00
26	Wotherspoon	0.30	0.19	0.50	0.56	0.38	0.58	0.45	0.57	0.60	0.52	0.51	0.53	0.65	0.47	0.50	0.59
37	Aronson	0.64	0.59	0.82	0.62	0.63	0.62	0.57	0.60	0.64	0.63	0.47	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.66	0.63
44	Wrenn	0.60	0.57	0.60	0.68	0.50	0.65	0.47	0.68	0.66	0.61	0.50	0.63	0.50	0.66	0.60	0.40
51	Pouliot	0.56	0.44	1.00	0.50	0.63	0.50	0.52	0.77	0.76	0.68	0.59	0.48	0.56	0.63	0.40	0.57

And here's the summary of the goal ratios of the player on the left when on the ice without the player on top. That's more for those interested in the raw data, though. Detailed analysis will follow below.

goal ratio without:

		2	7	6	8	11	14	17	18	19	22	26	27	28	37	44	51
8	Rattie	0.58	0.61	0.59		0.59	0.59	0.60	0.58	0.59	0.59	0.60	0.61	0.58	0.57	0.57	0.62
11	Gabriel	0.53	0.57	0.49	0.53		0.53	0.60	0.47	0.48	0.49	0.60	0.54	0.56	0.50	0.54	0.51
14	Cunningham	0.59	0.59	0.60	0.56	0.58		0.61	0.61	0.59	0.60	0.59	0.50	0.59	0.56	0.56	0.62
17	Boychuk	0.48	0.51	0.50	0.51	0.53	0.51		0.50	0.48	0.51	0.52	0.51	0.41	0.47	0.51	0.49
18	Ross	0.67	0.60	0.63	0.60	0.61	0.64	0.62		0.60	0.67	0.63	0.62	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.58
19	Johansen	0.68	0.66	0.64	0.68	0.65	0.66	0.66	0.67		0.64	0.68	0.68	0.66	0.67	0.66	0.63
22	Nino	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.62	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.66	0.51		0.64	0.61	0.62	0.61	0.62	0.60
27	Bärtschi	0.58	0.59	0.59	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.60	0.59	0.60	0.58	0.61		0.59	0.58	0.58	0.64
28	Leipsic	0.58	0.55	0.63	0.55	0.60	0.58	0.53	0.60	0.58	0.59	0.56	0.58		0.58	0.61	0.60

2	Rutkowski		0.54	0.57	0.56	0.58	0.57	0.58	0.58	0.55	0.57	0.59	0.55	0.57	0.57	0.57	0.58
7	Morrow	0.53		0.57	0.58	0.58	0.56	0.59	0.54	0.53	0.56	0.61	0.55	0.55	0.56	0.57	0.58
6	Ponich	0.67	0.63		0.61	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.63	0.52	0.58	0.62	0.60	0.67	0.58	0.62	0.60
26	Wotherspoon	0.53	0.56	0.51	0.48	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.49	0.47	0.51		0.49	0.47	0.52	0.51	0.47
37	Aronson	0.61	0.61	0.60	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.62	0.62	0.60	0.60	0.65	0.61	0.61		0.59	0.61
44	Wrenn	0.60	0.60	0.60	0.56	0.60	0.57	0.63	0.58	0.57	0.60	0.61	0.58	0.62	0.52		0.62
51	Pouliot	0.58	0.60	0.56	0.62	0.57	0.59	0.59	0.52	0.51	0.54	0.57	0.64	0.58	0.55	0.59

Nino outscored without Johansen

Here's a summary just for Nino. It's basically the same numbers as above, just arranged a little more neatly.

		TOI	with Nino	without Nino		Nino without…
18	Ross	0.57	0.58	0.67	16.11%	0.66	14.07%
17	Boychuk	0.12	0.45	0.51	11.36%	0.63	39.33%
14	Cunningham	0.14	0.56	0.60	5.95%	0.63	11.30%
19	Johansen	0.57	0.67	0.64	-5.64%	0.51	-24.21%
27	Bärtschi	0.09	0.69	0.58	-14.99%	0.61	-11.46%
11	Gabriel	0.27	0.69	0.49	-28.96%	0.61	-11.46%

2	Rutkowski	0.31	0.58	0.57	-0.74%	0.65	11.90%
44	Wrenn	0.33	0.61	0.60	-1.49%	0.62	2.70%
26	Wotherspoon	0.23	0.52	0.51	-2.53%	0.64	24.24%
37	Aronson	0.30	0.63	0.60	-3.94%	0.61	-3.06%
7	Morrow	0.31	0.59	0.56	-6.13%	0.63	7.15%
51	Pouliot	0.27	0.68	0.54	-20.92%	0.60	-11.43%
6	Ponich	0.18	0.77	0.58	-24.17%	0.60	-21.78%

Reading example: Ross spent 0.57 of his time together with Nino. 0.58 of the goals scored while the two were on together were in Portland's favor. 0.67 of the goals scored when Ross was on without Nino were in Portland's favor, meaning that Portland was 16.11% better when Ross was on the ice without Nino compared to when they were on together. Finally, 0.66 of the goals scored when Nino was on without Ross were scored in Portland's favor, meaning that Portland was 14.07% better when Nino was on the ice without Ross compared to when they were on together.

So, loosley speaking, since both percentage numbers are positive, Portland was best when the two were not on together at the same time. That might have many reasons, though, and doesn't necessarily mean the two had bad chemistry. For example, the goaltending behind them could just have been awful when they were on together, or they could have been used against specifically tough competition.

The most notable result for Nino are certainly the numbers with/without Johansen. As mentioned already, Nino was clearly worse without Johansen (0.51) compared to with Johansen (0.67). We can see that also Johansen suffered slightly from being away from Nino (0.64), but obviously not nearly as much as Nino suffered from being away from Johansen. Again, that might also have to do with things we can't observe, such as goaltending, shooting or quality of competition, but it's an interesting result for sure.

That's why I went back to do the exact same analysis for last season, as well, and added the results to the above numbers. The following numbers therefore include all EV goals in 09-10 and 10-11 (regular season and playoff each).

		TOI	with Nino	without Nino		Nino without…
19	Johansen	0.70	0.63	0.61	-3.17%	0.48	-23.81%

So, over the course of the last two seasons, Portland was marginally outscored (-3, goal ratio 0.48) when Nino was on the ice without Johansen. On the other hand, when Johansen was on without Nino (+21, 0.61), Portland was just about as strong as when Johansen and Nino were on together (+47, 0.63). Again, plus/minus isn't a perfect number and particularly the results for Nino without Johansen can easily be skewed also over the course of two seasons. Then again, the sample is not tiny, consisting of 154 games and 254 total goals for Nino overall. And we can observe the same trend in every period, thus 09-10 as well as 10-11 and regular season as well as playoff. So, it's maybe not an incredibly strong result, but I would definitely conclude that Nino has benefited much more from playing together with Johansen than the other way around.

Now, that obviously doesn't mean Nino can't have a good career. This here is limited to plus/minus ratings and some of Nino's (other) numbers and just generally his assets still look very good. So, a lot is still possible for him, but I'm not quite sure his overall game ever will be as good as advertised. However, more importantly, I'm not sure returning to Portland next season would be such a bad thing. I guess that would help his overall game and, assumingly without Johansen, he could take on an (even more) important role there indeed.

Johansen driving the bus

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Johansen	without Johansen		Johansen without…
27	Bärtschi	0.19	0.58	0.60	3.96%	0.68	18.22%
8	Rattie	0.18	0.59	0.59	-0.37%	0.68	13.68%
18	Ross	0.57	0.64	0.60	-6.51%	0.67	5.81%
22	Nino	0.66	0.67	0.51	-24.21%	0.64	-5.64%
17	Boychuk	0.13	0.67	0.48	-28.75%	0.66	-1.43%
11	Gabriel	0.29	0.71	0.48	-32.54%	0.65	-7.65%

37	Aronson	0.33	0.64	0.60	-7.36%	0.67	3.51%
2	Rutkowski	0.36	0.62	0.55	-12.31%	0.68	9.37%
44	Wrenn	0.32	0.66	0.57	-12.61%	0.66	0.32%
7	Morrow	0.31	0.65	0.53	-19.18%	0.66	1.09%
26	Wotherspoon	0.29	0.60	0.47	-21.57%	0.68	12.54%
6	Ponich	0.42	0.74	0.52	-29.40%	0.64	-14.23%
51	Pouliot	0.25	0.76	0.51	-32.56%	0.63	-16.41%

See Nino's section for how to read this table, etc.

There's no doubt Johansen's been driving the bus for this team. As you can see in the column "...without Johansen", being away from Johansen hurt almost every player's numbers. Johansen on the other hand has been very consistent (see "Johansen without") no matter who he was on with. With 92 scoring points in 63 games he was terrific also in that area and should have a pretty nice career ahead of him.

Ross not suffering as much as Nino

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Ross	without Ross		Ross without…
14	Cunningham	0.15	0.47	0.61	30.10%	0.64	36.90%
22	Nino	0.53	0.58	0.66	14.07%	0.67	16.11%
19	Johansen	0.45	0.64	0.67	5.81%	0.60	-6.51%
11	Gabriel	0.42	0.64	0.47	-26.47%	0.61	-3.97%

6	Ponich	0.30	0.59	0.63	6.18%	0.63	5.98%
2	Rutkowski	0.32	0.56	0.58	4.87%	0.67	20.90%
37	Aronson	0.27	0.60	0.62	1.86%	0.63	4.30%
26	Wotherspoon	0.18	0.57	0.49	-13.38%	0.63	10.25%
44	Wrenn	0.19	0.68	0.58	-15.19%	0.61	-11.16%
7	Morrow	0.27	0.65	0.54	-17.83%	0.60	-7.46%
51	Pouliot	0.23	0.77	0.52	-32.81%	0.58	-24.74%

Unlike Nino, Ross didn't suffer too much from being without Johansen. But again, that doesn't mean he's a better player or something. Might just be fluke first of all and then Nino is surely ahead of Ross in other areas of the game, such as goal scoring.

Bärtschi pretty consistent

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Bärschi	without Bärtschi		Bärtschi without
19	Johansen	0.22	0.58	0.68	18.22%	0.60	3.96%
8	Rattie	0.79	0.59	0.61	4.12%	0.63	6.48%
28	Leipsic	0.34	0.59	0.58	-1.30%	0.59	0.31%
22	Nino	0.12	0.69	0.61	-11.46%	0.58	-14.99%
14	Cunningham	0.67	0.64	0.50	-21.43%	0.56	-11.40%

51	Pouliot	0.42	0.48	0.64	33.94%	0.64	33.43%
37	Aronson	0.39	0.61	0.61	-0.52%	0.58	-5.58%
44	Wrenn	0.40	0.63	0.58	-6.67%	0.58	-6.46%
26	Wotherspoon	0.36	0.53	0.49	-7.74%	0.61	14.82%
6	Ponich	0.32	0.65	0.60	-8.00%	0.59	-10.29%
7	Morrow	0.30	0.62	0.55	-11.60%	0.59	-5.13%
2	Rutkowski	0.35	0.63	0.55	-13.02%	0.58	-8.06%

Bärtschi, discussed around here last week, is obviously not on the level of Johansen, but has some remarkably consistent numbers for a rookie playing the first season in North America. It's tough to compare him with Nino for many reasons, but Bärtschi however wasn't hurt by being away from Johansen at all. The addition of Cunningham to his line seemed to be quite a big help, however. Anyway, as this scout here indicates he might develop into a very fine all-around player.

...Rattie too

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Rattie	without Rattie		Rattie without
19	Johansen	0.21	0.59	0.68	13.68%	0.59	-0.37%
17	Boychuk	0.12	0.45	0.51	11.36%	0.60	32.27%
27	Bärtschi	0.81	0.59	0.63	6.48%	0.61	4.12%
14	Cunningham	0.70	0.60	0.56	-7.62%	0.59	-3.28%
18	Ross	0.12	0.73	0.60	-17.67%	0.58	-21.10%
28	Leipsic	0.28	0.68	0.55	-19.08%	0.58	-15.09%

51	Pouliot	0.37	0.50	0.62	23.29%	0.62	24.24%
7	Morrow	0.39	0.55	0.58	5.57%	0.61	11.35%
37	Aronson	0.43	0.62	0.61	-1.71%	0.57	-7.60%
6	Ponich	0.30	0.64	0.61	-4.48%	0.59	-7.99%
2	Rutkowski	0.33	0.61	0.56	-8.17%	0.58	-3.69%
26	Wotherspoon	0.38	0.56	0.48	-13.60%	0.60	8.84%
44	Wrenn	0.34	0.68	0.56	-17.13%	0.57	-15.53%

Rattie, listed as #1 among RW in the upcoming draft, has played almost exclusively with Bärtschi and their numbers indeed look similar. Both have been good also away from each other - even a bit better actually by these numbers. Given Bärtschi's less experienced and has collected more points it looks alright Rattie will probably be selected after Bärtschi in this year's NHL draft.

Morrow mediocre without stars

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Morrow	without Morrow		Morrow without…
11	Gabriel	0.22	0.46	0.57	22.46%	0.58	24.88%
8	Rattie	0.35	0.56	0.61	9.55%	0.58	3.87%
22	Nino	0.37	0.59	0.63	7.15%	0.56	-6.13%
17	Boychuk	0.38	0.49	0.51	4.75%	0.59	21.50%
19	Johansen	0.32	0.65	0.66	1.09%	0.53	-19.18%
14	Cunningham	0.32	0.59	0.59	-0.82%	0.56	-5.31%
27	Bärtschi	0.28	0.62	0.59	-5.13%	0.55	-11.60%
18	Ross	0.36	0.65	0.60	-7.46%	0.54	-17.83%
28	Leipsic	0.34	0.67	0.55	-17.92%	0.55	-18.08%

51	Pouliot	0.14	0.44	0.60	36.22%	0.58	32.93%
44	Wrenn	0.14	0.57	0.60	5.81%	0.57	-0.87%
2	Rutkowski	0.53	0.60	0.54	-9.28%	0.53	-11.62%

Joe Morrow is an offensive defenseman projected to be selected mid-1st round to late-1st round in this year's draft . His numbers here are good, but not great. He seemed to play a lot on the 2nd pair with Rutkowski and had good numbers with him indeed as well as with the Johansen line, but did not quite manage to keep this level when on without Johansen or with other D partners. Listed as number 6 among defensemen he's certainly a good player, but not sure the narrative of him having been overshadowed by all the talent on Portland's team is correct. It might rather be that he's listed a little high exactly because of that talent around him.

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