A quick look at the play of Islander Forwards

The season is almost over, so I think it's time to start taking final looks at the individual players on this team to think about next year, and where we have holes to fill.

In this post, I'm going to look at some of the advanced statistics of Islander Forwards. Only forwards with 20 or more games played are included.

NAME GP TOI/60 Relative +/- per 60 Relative Corsi Quality of Competition Relative Corsi Quality of Teammates Relative Corsi/60 Corsi / 60 Penalties Taken Per 60 Penalties Drawn Per 60 Zone-Start %
Kyle Okposo
29 13.2 1.4 0.769 5.419 23.4 11.13 0.9 1.4 45.7
Michael Grabner 69 12.17 1.36 0.53 2.949 13.6 0.57 0.3 0.9 43.8
Frans Nielsen
66 11.78 1.14 0.534 3.867 13.1 0.69 0.3 0.8 41.1
P.A. Parenteau 72 14.11 0.45 0.252 2.395 10.7 -1.77 0.9 1.2 55
John Tavares
70 14.97 -0.16 0.368 3.105 8 -3.89 0.7 0.8 54.5
Matt Moulson 73 14.39 0.09 0.414 3.102 7.2 -4.06 0.5 0.9 53.1
Blake Comeau
68 13.67 -0.36 0.171 -2.218 2 -7.94 0.5 0.8 43.6
Josh Bailey
61 12.81 -0.39 0.331 -1.177 -1.3 -10.06 0.7 0.6 41.8
Jesse Joensuu 33 11.41 -1.27 0.705 -1.548 -10.6 -19.44 1.1 0.3 43.2
Matt Martin
59 9.8 -0.52 -0.016 -4.628 -19.6 -23.65 1.2 0.6 44.7
Zenon Konopka
73 8.62 -0.58 0.12 -5.821 -20.7 -25.94 1.8 1.1 28.8
Trevor Gillies
33 2.81 -0.95 -0.711 -8.634 -42.3 -49.24 5.8 1.3 42.9

Table 1: A Table showing a variety of relevant advanced statistics for Islander Forwards on FIVE ON FIVE play.
Relative Corsi/60 = A Player's Corsi while they're on the ice MINUS the team's corsi when the player is off the ice.
Corsi/60 = Total Shots directed toward opponent's net MINUS Total Shots directed toward Your OWN Net (Per 60)
Relative +/- Per 60 = A players +/- while on the ice MINUS their +/- while off the ice Per 60 minutes.
Zone-Start % = The percentage of faceoffs you're on the ice that are in the offensive zone (not including neutral zone faceoffs)
Relative Corsi Quality of Competition = A measure of the skill of the average opposing player on the ice. (Basically it's the average Corsi Relative of the opposing players on the ice while this player was on the ice.)
Relative Corsi Quality of Teammates = A measure of the skill of the average teammate on the ice. (Basically it's the average Corsi Relative of the linemates and D-Men who are on the ice at the same time of this player)

I've ordered this table from the best relative corsi on the team (Kyle Okposo) to the worst (Trevor Gillies). What's interesting is that with the exception of Jesse Joensuu (who played equal minutes with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines), this resulted in the each of the Islanders' four forward lines being together on the chart. This shouldn't be a surprise really, as these are results while a player is on the ice, and thus we'd expect linemates to have similar numbers....but well the 4th and 3rd lines haven't been the same all year round as much as the top two lines, so earlier this season the numbers were a little jumbled. I've taken the liberty of coloring each line in a different color: FN-GO is Green, The Tavares Line is in Red, the Bailey-Comeau-[Schremp] line is in blue, and the fourth line is in orange (note: Matt Martin is listed on the 4th line since he matches up there and has played drastically more time on that line anyhow).

A couple of quick thoughts: FN-Go is the Isles best all-round line, which should not be surprising to anyone. While collecting exact data on this line is near impossible, we can get a close approximation in Kyle Okposo's statistics, since 75% of Kyle's time is played with the full FN-GO line. For every 60 minutes Kyle has been on the ice (and thus FN-GO), the Isles have had a shot differential (shots directed toward opponent's net MINUS shots directed at our own net) of +11.13. Consider, that would put the line equivalent to the #2 line in 2-way play (though not necessarily scoring) to the #1 Vancouver Canucks. And that's without getting favorable faceoffs and playing against top competition! This line is really an amazing 2-way line that any team would love to have right now.

The #2 line in terms of all round play (D and O, not just scoring) is the MM-JT-PAP line. Their corsi numbers aren't bad considering how bad the team's D has been for good parts of this year and well, take a look at their Relative +/-s. While all three players seem to have pretty bad +/-s, those numbers are deceiving: for Moulson and Parenteau, the team's actually scores more than it is scored upon when those two are ON the ice rather than OFF the ice, while Tavares is only a tiny bit negative (oddly enough the it seems the only cause of this I have found is that Tavares has had basically no time with Nielsen, while the other two have had tiny moments winging for Frans). Regardless, they are not as bad on D as the +/- would have you believe.

The #3 line is where things get a little worrisome. Comeau has actually put up a positive offensive contribution this year (Yes people, he has 20 goals). Both of these players are solid on the PK as well. However, Bailey, who we'd hope would be at least a good 3rd center if not #2 center (taking Frans' place as Frans ages) has actually REGRESSED since February.....remember back then I talked about how he had clearly improved defensively? Well all of those numbers have since become worse. Which is worrisome - it seems very possible that those numbers may have been due to another force, like playing a little with Michael Grabner.

Anyhow that's all I've got for now, like I said, this was a quick look that I did mainly in class.

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