More photos » Paul J. Bereswill - AP

"Keep smiling, but are those expectations I see on the horizon?"

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Hardly a day goes by when Islanders fans don't think of the team in the context of the word "rebuild" -- even if that's not a word GM Garth Snow likes to use.

But that's what's happening for the past two seasons, and a comparison of the roster constructed by Snow for 2007-08 to the one we see at the tail end of 2009-10 gives us a glimpse of how Snow course-corrected in early 2008 and put his stamp on the team.

The 2007-08 roster is a good comparison not just because it was the first season for which Snow had a full summer to tinker (Neil Smith signed several of the 2006 free agents), but also because it was the final season before Snow concluded -- and convinced Charles Wang -- that the franchise needed to pull back to scratch rather than continue grabbing stopgap free agents whose collective ceiling was yet another one-and-done 8th playoff seed.

Through the draft and a few select free agency signings, Snow is building a new core for the Islanders. With more pending free agents likely to exit and another draft (with a pick possibly high enough to help in 2010-11), this summer should bring about the moment where Snow can say, "This, this is the team I've been working on."

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More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

The elusive Islanders powerplay goal.

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I just don't see how calling Gillies up for tonight's game helps much. Gordon doesn't skate his enforcers much (and I don't think he should), and though their implied "puttin' on the foil" presence on the bench may provide the confidence of security for the other Islanders, I've yet to see evidence of that helping gain wins. Improved special teams -- now that would help garner wins.

>>a rare and accidental moment of clairvoyance from yesterday's game preview

Maybe it's because we tend to focus on the development of the young players and the lingering presence (to some) of veterans, or maybe it's because there is so little media following this team. Whatever it is, I'm surprised so little attention is directed at the Islanders' failing special teams. Seems the situation would warrant at least a terse Scott Gordon "We're a depleted squad" response.

Though hardly world-beaters at 5-on-5, this season the Isles have improved at full strength over their abysmal 2008-09 performance. With a .82 GF/GA differential at 5-on-5, they still rank just 28th (right behind Detroit, strangely). That might be enough to win more games -- if only the Islanders had even an average special teams unit. But they don't.

The powerplay ranks 28th (15.5%). The penalty kills ranks 29th (an abysmal 74.7%). For both units, this is not a recent problem, though Andy Sutton's departure and Andrew MacDonald's injury surely exacerbates the PK's difficulty.

It's not for lack of PP opportunities or too much PK work, either: Through 66 games -- 34 road, 32 home (over time teams get more PPs at home) -- they've had 245 PP opportunities, which is 20th most in the league. Not luxurious, but not bottom of the barrel. They've been shorthanded just 233 times, which is the 9th fewest in the league.

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More photos » John Bazemore - AP

Who's next?

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I'm a believer -- and have been for a while -- that the market for NHL goaltending has become flooded, which is why Martin Biron didn't get the money he wanted last summer, and Biron and others did not move at this trade deadline in anything but random backup swaps. In the cap world, there are good Ken Holland-esque arguments that unless you have [insert your "He's the bomb!" elite goalie of choice] in the top five or so, then it may not be worth your money to pay up for high dollar and long term. Get your Semyon Varlamov (or Cam Ward 2006, or Patrick Roy 1986) on and ride that pony to the land where rookies and adequate vets (Oz-zie, Oz-zie) become Cup winners.

Voila, your bargain youngster has earned his Playoff Tested badge.

But, well, there is always a psychological aspect to the value of goaltending: Toss aside numbers and "outperforming his contract" for the moment and think about the toll figuring out which bargain goalie you can trust takes on the locker room, the management, and the fans and media. That toll, as we've seen in Chicago all season long, creates some misery that, frankly, is not fun and leads to suspicion of a ripple effect on even an elite roster.

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A source also said that the team's performance has been hindered by the undesirable dynamic with three goaltenders in play.

"Look at where we were at, we had a playoff spot," said a player who requested anonymity. "Then we went on a losing streak and now we're on the outside looking in."

>>Newsday [sub.], quoting some Quixote who thought five shootout wins means you're a playoff team

Let it never be said that carrying three goalies doesn't pose problems, both logistical and psychological: From practice to game time to the delicate rhythm of crazy goalies, it certainly does. Yet let it also never be said that a player seeking excuses will have trouble finding them -- and anonymously venting them when things go bad.

The Rick DiPietro situation is far from ideal, yet at least this year the Islanders finally entered the 12-step program to address it. First step: Admit that you have a problem. They drafted goalies in the 2nd and 3rd rounds last summer, they signed two established NHL starters for this season, and they had a plan for re-introducing the man on the 15-year contract when ready to be tested. It was never going to be graceful, but it had to be done for this franchise to move forward. Everyone knew that evaluating DiPietro was an uncomfortable but necessary step for the franchise's long-term planning. ("Can he be healthy again? If healthy, can he regain his form?" etc. Necessary questions, all.)

I understand players being bummed that it hasn't worked out to perfection for the eminently likable Martin Biron: He overpriced himself last summer, ended up with this 1C situation as a last alternative, never played well enough to wrest the starting reins from Dwayne Roloson, and thus wasn't a desirable commodity at the trade deadline. That's a shame.

And this is just Newsday's first "controversial" locker room story of the season, so I don't want to blow it up; I welcome more locker room insight. But what alarms me as a fan is the stipulation from a player that this is why the team started losing and lost its ever-tenuous, incredibly brief, shootout- and extra-games-played-aided January hold on "a playoff spot." And not, you know, the entire roster's inherent deficiencies. Let's review the facts, shall we?

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The NHL has provided more than $2 BILLION of committed contracts in terms of players to the Olympics. The Capitals have provided in our six players more than $200 million worth of talent as well, I believe. And in payment back we received two free tickets to each game per team :-). Seems like a fair exchange, huh?

And we aren’t allowed to do any press work on site or media streaming in any way or use the Olympic logos or see our players or park at the arena and on and on. I bet I am violating some rules in blogging about the Olympics as I am not paying a penny to do so. I didn’t ask for permission or credentials either.

I love the Olympics but we don’t have a fair exchange of value that is for sure.

>>Capitals owner Ted Leonsis

I like international hockey, but there are some absurd sides to the [space for rent] Olympics that make this avenue toward a "best-on-best" hockey tournament almost intolerable to me -- not the least of which is the U.S. broadcast rights holder's failure to reliably and promptly televise the games for which the NHL has shut down.

Looking for highlights of these NHL players on the NHL Network? Sorry, not allowed. Want to watch an authorized live stream? Sign up and install this Microsoft plug-in. Want to know when the game will be on? It's after curling, already half-way through the first period, on a different NBC cable outlet, until a bit later when we'll switch the channel again. Deal with it -- and in the meantime, check out this dancing "competition" where the winners are determined by judges of debatable impartiality.

Dick Pound, the anti-doping hero of so many famous sweeping claims about drugs in the NHL, is on the International Olympic Committee and -- wouldn't you know it? -- finds the Olympics essentially beyond reproach, no matter what happens.

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This is an exercise I like to do as each season goes down the tubes approaches the trade deadline. Lucky for me, this season we have two "trade deadlines," and with the passing of one this afternoon, it's time we look at the Islanders' current payroll for next year, minus current unrestricted free agents like Jon Sim and Andy Sutton, but inclusive of restricted free agents. The idea is to play GM and sketch how to fill the roster next year and meet the salary floor, which if the cap stays flat will be around $41 million.

A few caveats to get out of the way before looking at the depth chart below:

• These numbers aren't official; they're mostly from CapGeek, which is usually pretty reliable. Though the NHL wants us to play fantasy sports and fantasy GM and generally think about their product as much as possible, they're strangely never in a rush to let fans know what the real deal is with player contracts. "Fan friendly when it's convenient," is the apparent rule.
• Figures for guys like Josh Bailey, Kyle Okposo and John Tavares include bonuses. All figures are cap hits, not salaries.
  
• Figures listed for RFAs like Bergenheim, Schremp, MacDonald and Moulson (denoted by asterisks) are their 2009-10 salaries. All of them, if retained, will receive minimum raises but quite possibly more than that.
• Tambellini and Kohn (and a few others) are on there because they're on the roster now, even if they're unlikely to be full-time Islanders next season. You can assume that if they're not re-signed or on the roster, their replacements will make at least that much.
• Brendan Witt's $3 million cap hit is not there because he's not on the NHL roster right now. Obviously if he made a Sim-like return, that changes things.

Done with caveats, follow after the jump for the totals, the roster holes, the fuming about Yashin, and the beginning of your wild free agent shopping:

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Have you noticed that Andrew MacDonald now has 32 games under his belt this year and is plus-7 -- tied for third-best on the team? That's behind forwards Frans Nielsen's +13 and Josh Bailey's +9. Not surprisingly, these Islanders also have the best 5-on-5 results -- along with a few others you might not expect.

Among those perhaps is Jack Hillen, whose ceiling is sometimes debated in comments here. Hillen (+5 by the way) is getting more minutes than he should on a thin blueline at this point. He is undersized, and that size mismatch has at times led him to take too many minor penalties (18 thus far) to compensate. But 5-on-5 figures show that overall he's handled the minutes pretty well -- with Andy Sutton the toughest minutes on the squad, by the way -- and he's now gone seven games since his last penalty. I wouldn't be surprised if familiarity is getting him a little more respect from the referees by now, as some of his early season spate of minors were harsh if not outright illegitimate calls.

The above are the top 10 Islanders at 5-on-5 thus far, according to the "Rating" (i.e. +/- per 60 min. relative to teammates) at Behind the Net. Check this BtN link for the full squad, where you'll find minus-9 Kyle Okposo and minus-10 John Tavares low on the list. Note these figures are a couple games behind, but they yield a good picture.

A few more explanatory notes and some talk of even-strength scorers -- a big deal with the powerplay struggling -- after the jump.

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More photos » Nam Y Huh - AP

"Darrrrrrrrrr...me defense play, money make..."

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Was yesterday's big "Tonight We're Gonna Trade Like it's Nine-teen-Ninety-two" party a one-time thing, or has it re-organized the landscape for what Garth Snow can do this spring and summer?

Snow has long stated the crucial assumption that he views his Islanders cap space as an asset. We have long fantasized around here that he might be able to put that asset to good use by lifting a solid player or two from the league's fat cats who have spent like kids in a candy store. But the fact is Snow can't leverage it if other GMs don't agree that it is, in fact, valuable. In other words, to acquire a high-paid player who is better than what the Islanders give up, Snow's trading partner has to agree that the cap room has a value on top of the player(s) he's getting back. The fewer of those GMs who exist, the harder it is for Snow to twist their self-inflicted knife.

There are a few other fun factors to consider which came up in email banter yesterday. (The managers for SBN hockey sites like Lighthouse Hockey have a discussion list where we fight over whose site is prettier coordinate logistics and such, and these points came up during yesterday's OMG! trade buzz.)

The first point came from Derek of Oilers site Copper & Blue:

Maybe today is the day that we can point to and say that hockey GMs have finally figured out how to manage player movement in a capped world?

(He concluded it with a jab at his own GM, but since I'm unethically posting snippets of semi-private correspondence, I'll stop there.)

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