Now that Phoenix has found itself a new owner...
Is Garth Snow actually drafting well, or are we all just pr*j*ct*ng again?
There's been a lot of debate about how strong Garth Snow's draft record actually is, five drafts into his tenure as the New York Islanders general manager. The comment here is a good example - I'm going to quote it for ease of discussion.
I hear ya, but how many picks have we had since 2007?... I can almost guarantee that we have had the highest of quality of opportunity in those drafts. ie How many first rounders, 2nd rounders, etc? JT was a gimme. Are you happy with Bailey? or deHaan? I get that it’s still early and these guys are young, but all things considered, I’m surprised we haven’t hit pay dirt on at least one other player drafted since 2007, given our opportunity.
Please note - I'm not trying to single out anyone. I'm moving this to a Fan Post because it's worth going over how the Isles got here and where they hope to be going, and how they mean to get there. There's a lot to go over in just this short comment: quality and quantity of picks, how other teams did, how the Isles have done in the past. And since the quoted comment was left in reply to something I wrote, it falls to me. Please bear with it.
329 comments
|
3 recs |
Tweet
Is It Hockey Or Rugby? - The Scrum in The Crease
We can all remember a few seasons back when there were even more reviews of goals then there is now. It basically concerned the rule that the puck must proceed the shooter into an already recently enlarged crease and if a goal was scored, it would not count if there was even a toe of a skate in the crease before the puck.
All of this changed when the "Hockey Geniuses" decided that the pro sport needed more scoring to compete with higher scoring, Football, Baseball, and Basketball, - and not like low scoring Soccer, - generally a laggard in popularity in North America.
#I'dTradeDPfor
at this point i'd trade Rick DiPietro for anything. he is eating valuable money (shut up about the damn cap, we can put it somewhere else), creating media problems, and making us the laughing stock of the league. If any valued website credits the islanders with anything (re: John Tavares), it is instantly revoked and a comment about DP is made. it needs to stop.
so: a game. who/what would you trade rick dipietro for?
me first
#i'dtradeDPfor a free seat in the loudville section
"Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda"
I am disgusted every time I hear about another team's rookies finding success in the NHL. Although we got Tavares the year he was drafted, I want to vomit every time I have to listen to hockey analysts raving about Chris Kreider.
Given we haven't finished above eighth place in 10 years I took a look back at the last 12 years to figure out who we've been drafting and who we could have had to roughly gauge the quality of our scouts. This list of "coulda hads" is as follows:
Jeff Skinner, Erik Karlson, Claude Giroux, Martin Hanzal, Mike Green, Zach Parise, Jason Spezza (and wouldn't have traded Zdeno Chara), and Marian Gaborik among others...see appendix below.
Conclusion: Our scouts suck.
Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but if you are undergoing a rebuild and don't want to spend any money, strong scouting is a prerequisite for success and from reviewing the historical first round draft list, I seriously question our scouting ability. Passing on Parise, Getzlaf and Perry in 2003 was a complete sin, and not spotting Skinner, Karlson or Giroux in '10, '08 and '06 also speaks to a lack of an eye for talent. I believe this is a lingering problem because these latter misses can not be blamed on Milbury (a.k.a. "Dinglebury").
I hope Nino, Bailey and Okposo prove me wrong but, as many of you have continually pointed out, this organization needs a complete management overhaul before we can reasonably expect to see a quality product on the ice. No surprise we've been leaving talent on the table.
Appendix:
2011: Strome...jury is still out on this one but looks like he's doing pretty well
2010: Nino's 1 goal...we could have had Jeff Skinner
2009: Picked JT...good move (that's 1 solid pick out of 12 I will list here = Jim Abbot's batting average)
2008: Picked Bailey...we could have had Michael Del Zotto (a top 4 d-man), Erik Karlson (a top 4 d-man who scored 19G & 59A) Tyler Myers (a 6'8" top 4 d-man), John Carlson (a....seeing a pattern here?)
2007: Isles finished 14th the year before and we traded away our pick for a Crying Oiler named Ryan Smyth (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=desNNUzLjZg)...Kevin Shatenkirk went 14th but actually not a bad year to waste your pick
....heading toward the Mike "Dinglebury" years, here's where it gets good
2006: Picked Okposo...could've had Claude Giroux (nice!)
2005: Picked Ryan O'Marra (aka Ryan O'Who?)...could've had Hanzal, Kindl, Oshie, Downie, instead we got nobody
2004: Picked Petteri Nokelainen... passed on Travis Zajac, Andrej Meszaros and Mike Green
2003: Robert Nilsson (traded with O'Marra and the '07 pick to Edmonton for Smyth)...could've had Zach Parise!!!, Ryan Getzlaf!!! Mike Richards, Corey Perry!!!
2002: Picked Sean Bergenheim...the Isles finished 8th that year...and still didn't make it past round 1 (thanks for making me an Islanders fan dad!!!)
2001: We traded our first round pick and Chara for Yashin...could have had Spezza (in all fairness to Dinglebury, that trade did get us to a comfortable 5th in the east playoff spot)
2000: If the Islanders move one day, I think we can call this draft year "the beginning of the end"...WE PICKED RICK DIPIETRO...we could have had Heatly, Gaborik or Hartnell
Early predictions for 2012/2013
Last year before the season started and very early during the seasons I made some pretty bleak predictions and the Islanders lived down to them all.
1st observation Sept 26, 2011 Just a thought on training Camp
It does not seem they have a plan for the 3rd and 4th lines. What should have been done with the 3rd and 4th liners was decide at the beginning of camp who was going to be on what lines and stick to it. Give them a chance to grow and learn each others strengths and weaknesses. Not only during the games but practices they are split into different groups at different times. It just shows they do not know how to handle those 2 lines and that scares me
2nd observation Octbober 2, 2011 Mordred's Preseason Scouting Report
Okposo still can't find the net.....Okposo needs this season to put it all together or needs to become a 3rd liner.
The Islanders have no Idea what they want to do. There is no cohesion on who is on what lines, what position, or what their role will be. This is not a good sign. Yes Reasoner and Rolston on paper were an upgrade...Gilles is still a waste. There would be no need for him if they would have left well enough alone. What we lost is toughnes. I am not talking goonish I am talking Toughness. The Islanders are a very soft team.
Jurcina is hurt again surprise, surprise.If he can not stay healthy he is not worth anything to the Islanders. Also Eaton and Mottau look worse than they did last season if that is possible. The Defense again is looking like it will be our weekest link on this team.....Reese is not NHL material but still looks better than Eaton and Mottau. The smallest defenseman in camp is Ness and he looks better than most. Not a very good sign.
it will be a very long season again. It might be entertaining because o the scoring but the Islanders are going to give up alot of goals and be a lottery team again.
October 21 After 5 game review
Since Nino is hurt and it is one of those nagging injuries I would rather send him back to the Juniors for 1 more season. PA is playing well and I would rather have him stay in the Juniors than having him play 3rd line duty time.
October 27 Time to juggle lines
If changes are not made - The 3rd and 4th line continue horrible play. The 1st line continues to dominate. 2nd line starts to come around but too late. The goalies keep us in games but we continue to play below .500 hockey. The defense is too old and little by little the Islanders give up more goals as the season progresses. By December we are not out of the playoff hunt but we are falling further away.
They need to make changes or it will become another bleak season.
Those were my thoughts before and early on in the season.
My predictions this season: More Dread from Mordred:
1. The Islanders get the 4th pick and take 1 of the defenseman. He will make the team out of training camp.
2. No major trades or FA acquisitions during the off season. A couple of minor moves like last season. We lose Parenteau to FA.
3. Dipi saga does not end and again says he will be ready and healthy for training camp.
4. The Islanders during camp are going to have to fill out the following spots:
A. 1st Line RW
B. What are the 2nd and 3rd Lines and how to distribute Neilsen, Okposo, Grabner and Bailey and who to add to round off those 2 lines.
C. Create a legit 4th line that can bring toughness to this team.
D. Fill 3 defensive spots on this team out of Donavan, DeHaan, Katic, Ness, and their 2012 draft pick.
All in all I see another Lottery Pick in 2013!
Where do you see the Islanders finishing?
Is It Time For NHL Expansion Into Canada? [Reader Poll]
Just a brain twister to think and discuss: rather than poaching other cities’ teams and fans turning against fans, why not add two expansion teams in Canada, and simultaneously provide a long term plan to eventually expand the NHL to a 40-team league with 5 playoff rounds? This would return the league to “playoff profitability” levels retained when there were only 21 teams. Rationale with some interesting numbers below:
Now before the knee-jerking responses about thinning out the league’s talent, etc., let's assume that is common knowledge that is already known by everyone. Expansion has to be at a pace that the current available talent allows, without jeopardizing the current quality on the ice. That said, I’d argue there are enough goalies and checkers but a shortage of top 6 forwards and defensemen to permit significant expansion. Also, I don’t think there are 40 North American cities that can at present support an NHL team; however, I do believe there is enough talent to expand to 32 teams, and there are more than 30 cities in North America that can support an NHL team. Hockey is also a growing sport in several countries, including Germany, and surprisingly China to name a few.
52 comments
|
1 recs |
Tweet
Trade Poulin/Nilsson + Pick For Top Pair D
1. We have a desperate need for a top pair big young stand-out Defenseman which probably cannot and will not be addressed by the RA route because of the historic reluctance of top players to accept our often generous offers for well known reasons including our poor standings record and failure to make the play-offs. In addition our poor playing facility and equally dismal outlook for a new building weigh heavily on a player's desire to play here.
2. Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Tampa,and Montreal among others in the West are desperate for help at the Goalie position.
3. The above named teams have many young [under 30] Ds under contract that could serve us well.
4. Since we would still retain Nabokov, Montoya, and either Poulin or Nilsson we are still well covered at that position.
This step is necessary if we are to have any chance of making the play-offs next season which in turn could lead to better attendance and renewed interest by private interest and money directed at a new Arena which all agree must happen if the team is to stay on the Island.
Draft, Offseason and a Realistic '12-'13 approach
Depending on who Columbus picks - Forsberg, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, or Murray - that will strongly determine who will be available to the Isles at 4. All signs point to Ryan Murray or Matt Dumba, but will Garth really draft a d man this time ? I feel like if Forsberg falls to the isles at 4, then The Isles may jump all over it and then try to trade up from the #34 pick to get a d man like Hampus Lindholm, who is rising fast.
Trading the 4th pick for an established forward or D man could be a way to go, but Garth Snow does not have the gravitas to pull off something that creative.There is no OEL for Nino + or a huge package for Nash, Brown, Stafford, Pavelski, or even Iginla, because all that would require a level Moxi and know how that Snow lacks.
The Isles could always trade down - maybe trading the 4th pick to the Lightning (10, 23), Caps (11, 16), or Sabres (12,26) for their 2 first Rders, but the Isles (hopefully) will not be picking in the top 5 again, so they should take the talent and run.
There can be a smaller deal that could be made that would upgrade the Isles Top 9 forwards and that deal would be with Edmonton. It is not for the Nail. Edmonton will want 'a home run' type deal for the no.1 or for Taylor Hall - meaning Hedman for Hall or Larsson for Hall or Myers for the Nail. That's not the deal I'm talking about- This is purely speculation, so here it goes: How about a swap of 2009 1st rd. picks Calvin De haan for Magnus Paarjarvi. Paarjarvi would look nice on Fransie's or Bailey's leftside. De Haan could start at Edmonton right away and Magnus can possibly see some top minutes. It might take a bit more, but nothing a 3rd or 4th rder couldn't solve.
How much more time? How much more patience is needed?
I thought, I'd take a step back to the begining of the rebuild and try to figure out what any team needs to be a playoff team and then see how much of this is in place with the Islanders and how much more time will Snow need to complete this.
I had thought a team would need at least 5 to 6 top line forwards, 4 defenseman plus a #1 goalie. The team would also need an overall consistent team defense and depth to withstand injuries or one poor season from one of your top players.
If you agree with the above or not, where do the Islanders stand going into next season and seasons immediately following it. However, first I think we would need to agree on what is a top line forward and a top 4 defenseman. I would think a top forward is a player capable of playing on the powerplay and scoring 20 to 25 goals for the season, or over 60 points. How many players well the Islanders have on next years roster like this? If the resign Parenteau, they should have least four (Tavares, Moulson, Parenteau and Okposo). I think Strome, Nino, Nelson and Bailey could all turn into this type of player but, when?
Regarding the defense, a top 4 defenseman needs to be able to log 22 to 25 minutes, on the PK and PP. The Isles have three of the 4 going into next year but, who will be the 4th? Is MacDonald really a top 4 defenseman? Would he be a third pair on a really god team? When will Donovan or deHaan be ready? If the Isles are able to draft Ryan Murray or Matt Dumba when will they be ready? How many more years does Scott Mayfield need?
Will Kevin Poulin or Andres Nilsson turn into a #1 goalie.
Since I don't think the Isles yet have the 5 to 6 forwards, 4 solid defenseman or #1 goalie, they therefore don't have the overall team defense or team depth needed to challenge for a playoff spot.
If they can't sign a player like this through Free Agency and can only secure these players through the draft, how much longer will it take? I do think the slow rebuild is working, but it's slow. Once done, the Islanders could be a very good team. If, Strome, Nino, Bailey and Nelson develop into top players to join Tavares, Moulson, PAP and Okposo. If a defense of Murray or Dumba with Hamonic, MacDonald, Mayfield, deHaan and Donovan is realized. If Poulin and/or Nilsson are the real deal. That's a lot if IFs?
But, this may take two or three more years or more? Since the lease expires in 2015, can we wait that long? So my question to you is. How much more time are you willing to be patient and wait for the Islanders to be a playoff team. Not just a sneak in and be out in four games but, a team that could be a 4 or 5 seed going into the playoffs.
How much more patience do you have?

by
by
by 






