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Parsing Hockey's Future's Islanders Top 20 Prospects Spring Edition

A couple of days ago Hockey's Future published their new list of Top 20 prospects in the Islanders system. After reading it, it leaves one to wonder: Has the author actually watched any of these guys this year?

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The Likelihood of Making the Playoffs in the East


(Hey guys, just wanted to let you know that I'm basically copying and pasting this from a fanpost by Missy from the Nucks Misconduct blog. I thought it was interesting {98% chance of playoffs if we run the table} so I figured I'd share it.For those who are interested, This leads to the original post and This leads to the Western Conference post)

As some of you are probably aware, Sports Club Stats is a fascinating website that tracks each team's likelihoods of making the playoffs, what they need to clinch spots, and what seeds they're most likely to finish in.  Here's an explanation of how it works, direct from the site:

Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times, keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.

Fascinating.

Anyways, with most teams now sitting at 15 games left in the season, I felt it was time to show each team's chances.  After the jump, I'll show each team, what they need to guarantee clinching a playoff spot, what will make them guaranteed to drop out of the playoffs entirely, and their most likely finishing position.  This post is for the Eastern Conference.

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Weight is out for the season

 

Via Katie Strang

 

As much as I like Weight, I think now would be the perfect time to step down as captain and hand the reins over to Kyle Okposo. If nothing else it will give Isles fans something to cheer for. Maybe a desire to see how the new "C" adjusts to his role will put some more butts in the seats at NVMC now that the playoffs are effectively out of the picture.

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An Early Look at Islanders UFA Targets

[Editor's note: This is a FanPost we can probably chew on for several weeks. Thanks for doing the legwork, mdelbags.]

I apologize for jumping the gun on this but I'm a teacher and have been giving standardized tests all week, so I've had a lot of down time to day dream...I figured I might as well pass the time by playing Isles GM and take a peek at every available UFA for this summer.  We already have a resident Draft expert in BCISLESMAN...so I'm applying for the UFA job.

I started out just printing out a list of all the players set to become unrestricted free agents (nhlnumbers.com) at the end of this season. I then constructed a list of players that I would like for the Isles to attempt to sign.  That list was way too long to make any sense of so I created another list attempting to target players that may fit a need that the Isles will have this summer going into next season. I broke the needs into separate categories in order from most pressing to least and numbered the players based on my preferences. When selecting players I tried to keep age and salary in mind.  I tried to stay away from players well into their 30's unless the need was for a veteran and steered clear of the obvious All-stars (there are no Kovalchuks, Marleaus, Lidstroms or Nabokovs here).  That type of player just doesn't seem to make any sense for where we are in our rebuild.  

Please correct any misconceptions or misplacements I have made as I'm sure there may be quite a few.  Who did I forget...who should I have omitted? 

Poll
What type of player do you think is the most important for the Isles to sign this summer?

  325 votes | Results

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96 comments  |  1 recs |

What I want to see in the last month of 09-10

I am a little disappointed that the Isles have fallen off and will more than likely miss the playoffs(dropping to 14th in the standings). That said I am happy we had some success this year. I am very happy with Roloson. I think Bailey has improved abd hope to see similar from JT next season. I am overall happy with JT, it is tough that he hasn't scored in 20 games, but atthe start of the season I would have been happy knowing he could put in 15+ goals.

Now, what I hope to see in the last 17 games:

John Taveras scoring a couple of goals. I think it is very important he has a positive last few games in order to come back next season confident. I fear that if he ends the season at 17 goals it may mess with his head. I would like to see him break 20 goals

Matt Moulson-  Lets see him put in #25, if he gets hot could we see 30?

Kyle Okposo- hope he can break 50 points, and that could start with a goal. Last time he went without a goal for awhile, when he finally tallied a score he had a great couple of weeks after.

Josh Bailey and Rob Schremp- I think they have both been the bright spots of the season. I see them constantly making plays, so I just want to see more of the same, and hopefully luck is on their side and they tally a few scores.

Frans Nielsen- I just want to see his name consistently on the score sheet. He seems so talented but doesn't have the numbers, except in the shootout.

Trent Hunter- He came back strong from his early season injury, and since has done very little. Maybe he can do the same when he gets back in the lineup. He needs to be a lot more consistent next season

Jon Sim- he has been scrappy all season long, he can score on occasion but maybe Matt Martin can take his role, or take Tim Jackman's role. We need Martin's energy im the lineup, I thought he brought a lot to the games before the break. Tim isn't the player we need when he can't be physical.

Blake Comeau- well he has been hot, can he do more of the same, he has proven that he can play. Lets hope it is more consistent. I hope he is back from the hit and scoring a few more times. maybe he needs some PP time.

Richard Park- I would like to see him get less TOI. I would like to see some other guys get PK time, just to find guys who can play next season. Park is good at the PK, but now is the time to experiment and find the next generation of PK. what can it hurt, we are what 78%.

Doug Weight- I like this guy, but he has very poor numbers. I would find it hard to warrant him coming back. 1/16/17 just doesn't cut it. I like his locker room presence though so if he can put a few points up at the end of this season, and we resign him, that isn't the worst thing.
Bergy- I have lost my confidence in him, I would rather he was a scratch and Tamby got the TOI. tamby has 7g/6a/13points in 27 games, Bergy 5g/8a/13points in 47 games. Both feature some speed, and tamby is much better in a shootout.

Mark Streit- he has been the most consistent D we have, and even after playing during the olympics he seems to be strong. I hope he can put a few PP goals in here to end the season, break 45 points.

Bruno Gervais- how about a + the last part of the season,

Freddy Meyer- shoot more, some PP time on point, he seems to have a better shot than previously shown

Jack Hillen- just stay healthy, he hasnt been the same since the shot to the face, but he is playing decent. He was playing very good before hand, and as long as we get him back healthy next season he is a good player

Dustin Kohn- just log some TOI, give him different tests, PK, PP 4 on 4, lets see what he can learn for next season

Andy MacDonald- I think we have to wait until next season to see him again, just get healthy.

Dylan Reese- also just log some TOI, shoot some, lets see that offensive you have.

 

PP- we are better since the break, keep it up

PK do something, how about 85% the rest of the way

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Not that I am a conspiracy theorist type person but...



DP's latest injury is B.S.  This is an elaborate scheme by Frank Cashen Snow in order to move one of the other goaltenders. He didnt like the offers that were coming in because the other GM's knew that he was under the gun and HAD to make a move on one of his netminders, this potential DP 'swelling' may cause some teams (SECOND city, filthadelphia) to step up their game  and offer a higher pick

 

or

 

sigh...he is simply just hurt again and in that case I am sick of it.. stick with Roleson and maybe trade him draft day or for something else for the expiring contact if you dont get what you want now.

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Botta reports Philly and Chicago fishing for Roloson

This could be a very intriguing trade deadline for this team. If Snow can pull a late first for Sutton and a second for Roloson this team is in great shape heading into the draft. Optimally I think you'd like to see Philly get in on the bidding for Sutton. That will throw Washington and perhaps a few other eastern conference teams in the bidding. I don't think anyone wants to go a long series having to face both Sutton and Pronger for six to seven games.

Overall I'd say this team, if they trade Roloson and Sutton at the deadline, is solidly in the running for the services of Cam Fowler. I don't see anything standing in the way of them landing the third overall pick in the draft barring any lottery ball madness.

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Olympic Hockey not filling the void of NHL hockey




Now I am a huge patriot and love my country. I served for 5 years and still stay involved with protecting the American way but I am just not into the Olympic Hockey that much. I am watching and think we have a good shot at gold, and that is somewhat exciting but not as exciting as watching the Islanders skate to a victory. Maybe it is because there are 2 Rangers on the team and no Islanders.

I would rather see the games go back to the old format, and leave the NHL alone. I am like a drug addict in withdrawl, and might lose it before 3/2 when the Islanders take up their season again.

What will happen between now and then? Who will be traded? I am about 95% sure someone is gone. Can Taveras have a positive run at the end of the season? can Rollie and DP share the goal and play well enough to win? Why wasn't DP sent to Bridgeport to play some?

Just some thoughts, missing NHL hockey

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Czechoslovakia vs Russia

Anyone else think that this would be a good idea?  When the Soviet Union was still intact this was one of the greatest rivalries ever in international play.  A team of the top players in both the Czech Republic and Slovakia will compete against Russia in a Summit Series like event every year, two years or four doesn't matter, to see who reigns supreme. 

Some might say it won't be competitive but I beg to differ.  Before the start of the Olympics many people looked at Slovakia's and the Czechs roster and saw that if they put the two together than they would have a pretty good team.  Others might say it wouldn't make sense to put players from two countries that split apart back together but remember there are plenty of Czechs playing with Slovaks in the NHL and in Europe.  I would love to see this match up and would watch every game if it was on T.V. though considering I'm the only one that I've seen think of this idea but I pray it happens.  Feel free to disagree with me.

Poll
Is this a good Idea?
Yes, good idea and I think it can happen
0 votes
I like it but this will never happen
5 votes
Wouldn't work
3 votes

8 votes | Poll has closed

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Women's Tournament


Not really sure if anyone else has been watching the women's tournament, but it has been surprisingly good hockey so far.  I have never really watched too much women's hockey in the past.  In 1998, the first year they were in the Olympics, the hockey, to be honest, was not very good.  But to see how much improved the game has gotten in only 12 years is pretty amazing. 

The only downside in my opinion is that there is no checking.  But the game is very wide open due to that; so maybe it's not all bad. 

Just a quick post to try and open people's eyes to it.  Canada is playing Sweden right now on MSNBC.  Check it out!

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