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New York Islanders Passing Stats through 46 Games of 2014-15

Full-season Beast Mode. - Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Passing Project Updates

Since my last post on January 2, a lot has changed with the passing project. The guys at war on ice have reached out to Ryan Stimson seeking to add our data to their website, and while the integration hasn't happened yet, we've had to change the way we track as a result. Not only are we counting passes and secondary passes that lead to Corsi events, now we are tracking the time, shooter, and several other factors, (one-timers and Royal Road) to help us better understand shot quality. And while I have only been tracking this way the past 7 games, we've already seen some great data coming from it.

Additionally, we are making a short movie to explain the passing project! Our goal is to be as transparent as possible so that when you watch the games, you won't have to think "I wonder if they count that as a pass." You will hear from all six trackers who cover the Islanders, Devils, Blackhawks, Rangers, Panthers, Flames, and Capitals. And while we are aware of our slim chances at Best Picture with a February release, we've decided to go ahead anyway.

Leddy and Boychuk Save the Day

As garik mentioned in a recent post, the Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk pairing have been really good this season, like really good. Looking at Corsi alone and WOWY analysis, it's reasonable to surmise that Leddy is the primary driver on that pairing.

However, he does owe a lot to Johnny B. who contributes 32.4% to those numbers with passes and shots. Johnny's been unlucky at even strength, specifically with goal scoring: he's taken five less shots than Nick but somehow Nick has seven EV goals to Johnny's zero. We would reasonably expect him to equal if not surpass Leddy in goal scoring the rest of the way. Re-signing Boychuk should be Garth's top priority this offseason. He's a fan favourite, leader in the locker room, and half of one of the best pairings in hockey.

DefenseTable

Brian Strait: A National Concern

On the flip side of the coin is Brian Strait, target of many Islander fans' ire. It hurts to pile on but his season so far offers nothing remarkable. Among defensemen he's last in Corsi Contribution/60, Corsi Rel, and worst of all seems to be dragging down Thomas Hickey, whose been a positive Corsi Rel player the past two seasons. Strait is the worst passer on the team, second to worst shooter, and biggest obstacle to Matt Donovan getting a shot at the NHL.

Below is a chart showing the above table with the additional context of Competition TOI% (higher means harder competition) and Corsi Rel (right is better). The size and colour of bubbles is their Corsi Contribution/60.

DefenseChart

It's interesting to note how tied together the pairings seem to be. One would expect this for TOI% of Competition and Corsi Rel for regular partners, but it's harder to explain similar bubble sizes. You'd think this is where individual skill would really shine. With our new method of pass tracking we can see how often d-men pass it between themselves and how often they share in their own Corsi Contributions as a result. Below is a table showing each defensemen and who is most often the recipient of their passes that lead to shots (SSS warning: this data has only been tracked the past seven games):

DefensePasses

This sample is so small it's hardly worth looking at, but will become more fascinating with more data. In any event, we can see that Calvin de Haan and Travis Hamonic most often pass it to one another, which explains their similar bubble sizes. It's worth noting this pair faces the toughest competition yet manages the third and fourth best Corsi Contribution/60 on the team respectively.

As suspected, Hickey passes to Strait a lot which means he shares in his Corsi Contributions. The reverse is not true however: when Strait decided not to pass to no man's land, he gave it to Grabner 28.6% of the time. And while Strait is not much of a shooter, he's even less a passer, explaining why he's the smallest bubble on the map.

The Offense Saves the Day

Finally John Tavares is on top just as Bossy intended. Right behind him are Kyle Okposo and Ryan Strome. Strome, who is three years longer than JT and five years younger than Kyle, is showing all the signs of becoming a superstar and should have Isles fans very excited for the future. In the next segment of Corsi Contributors are Frans Nielsen and Mikhail Grabovski. Frans has had extremely bad luck this season regarding even strength point scoring: he has a mere ten points this season, good for ninth among forwards. His ability to generate Corsi events (15.56) however suggests he should be in the top four the rest of the way. And of course shot quality matters, but Josh Bailey having 20 even strength points to Frans's 10 just doesn't seem right.

OffenseTable

The Fourth Line Runs for Office

Don Cherry calls it as he sees it, but he doesn't always see it correctly. One week ago the CBC commentator called the Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas, and Cal Clutterbuck line "the best fourth line ever in hockey." Even as Islanders fans, who often cry for media attention, we know this is hyperbole.

OffenseChart

I mean come on, just look at the chart! They're the smallest circles and face the easiest competition. Their Corsi ceiling is likely 50%, and they've only had one goal since January 9th. Actually the chart doesn't tell the whole story here: the trio are actually tops on the team in limiting the other team's possession. While more offense from them would be nice, it's likely the result of the "dump and chase" strategy we've heard so often. At least through the first 46 games of the year, this line has been an asset and not cause for agita.

Interesting stat: Martin has been on the ice for 15 even strength goals against this season in 505 minutes, a 1.79 GAA!

Conclusion

Everything is more than okay in Islanders country and shows no signs of stopping. You can enjoy their last season at Fort Neverlose with no reservations and should be able to wear your Isles gear with pride in May and hopefully in June.

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