FanPost

Possible goal pr*j*ct**ns for next season if no moves are made


Im going to assume our lineup looking something like this:

Nelson-Tavares-Okposo

Lee-Nielsen-Bailey

Grabner-Strome-Clutterbuck

Martin-Cizikas-Mcdonald

Dehaan-Hamonic

Hickey-Visnovsky

Donovan-Strait

What I'm going to do, is look at each players past 1-3 seasons (for those that have actually played full seasons in the NHL), take their shot totals, and multiply that by their career shooting percentage to find out what their goal totals would be like for those seasons without any luck, then use the average of those seasons to see what we could expect as a goal total for them next year

Obviously this is very very veerryyy far from a perfect analysis but I'm bored and I'm not that smart so oh well

For the players that have at least a full season, numbers adjusted and all, our lineup would look like this (the numbers in the parenthesis will be their expected goal total over an 82 game season, rounded off to the nearest whole number)

Nelson(16)- Tavares(35)-Okposo(19)

Lee(Incomplete)- Nielsen (16)- Bailey(14)

Grabner(23)- Strome (incomplete)- Clutterbuck (15)

Martin(8)- Cizikas (7)- Mcdonald (11)

Dehaan(Incomplete)-Hamonic(4)

Hickey(3)-Visnovsky(12!)

Donovan (incomplete)-Strait (3)

Total goals scored not including incomplete players : 186

So for the rest of them, I'm just going to take their career G/GP pace and extend it to a 82 game total

Lee (34!)

Strome(16)

Dehaan (5)

Donovan (3)

So with that, the Lineup looks like this

Nelson(16)-Tavares (35)-Okposo (19)

Lee(34)-Nielsen (16) Bailey(14)

Grabner(23)-Strome (16)- Clutterbuck (15)

Martin (8)- Cizikas (7)- Mcdonald (11)

Dehaan(5)-Hamonic(4)

Hickey (3)- Visnovsky (12)

Donovan (3)- Strait (3)

This brings the lineup total to 244 goals, good for 2.98 G/GP as a team, which wouldve been good enough for 5th in the league this past season

Now, obviously some of these numbers seem a bit, extravagant, others a bit low (I doubt Okposo doesnt break 20 next season, and Nelson would surely get more if hes on the first line) So heres what I think is a more realistic projection

Nelson(20)-Tavares (33)-Okposo (25)

Lee(22)-Nielsen (16) Bailey(11)

Grabner(21)-Strome (16)- Clutterbuck (15)

Martin (7)- Cizikas (7)- Mcdonald (7)

Dehaan(5)-Hamonic(3)

Hickey (3)- Visnovsky (6)

Donovan (3)- Strait (2)

The new total is: 222, good for 2.71 G/game, which would put us at 14th in G/game this season, tied with Toronto

Again, this is hardly scientific, just something I felt like looking into. Also, apologies if someone has already posted something similar and I just missed it or completely forgot because I'm an airhead

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