Let me first make clear that there is a vast difference in the general quality of a typical top WHL forward drafted since 2003, compared to OHL forwards. Here are the OHL forwards drafted top-5 since 2013:
1st overall: PKane, Tavares, Hall, Stamkos, Yakupov
2nd overall: Seguin, EStaal, BRyan, Landeskog, JStaal
3rd overall: Duchene, Horton, Galchenyuk
4th overall: Pouliot
5th overall: Strome
Compare that to the WHL since 2003:
1st overall: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2nd overall: (None)
3rd overall: (None)
4th overall: Johansen, EKane, Ladd
5th overall: Niederreiter
That's right: thirteen top-3 picks from OHL forwards, and only one from WHL forwards. That said, Johansen, Evander Kane, and Ladd haven't disappointed at 4th overall, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has somewhat at 1st overall.
On to the charts! New, improved charts. Crispy.
Player | Pre-draft Year | Age start season | Team Goals For | NHL draft pos | Points-per-game |
SReinhart | 2013-2014 | 17Y11M | 235 | 2014 draft | 1.75 |
Draisaitl | 2013-2014 | 18Y0M | 243 | 2014 draft | 1.64 |
RNHopkins | 2010-2011 | 17Y6M | 268 | 1st overall | 1.54 |
EKane | 2008-2009 | 17Y2M | 319 | 4th overall | 1.46 |
Hamill | 2006-2007 | 18Y1M | 239 | 8th overall | 1.30 |
Glennie | 2008-2009 | 17Y8M | 295 | 8th overall | 1.27 |
Brule | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 212 | 6th overall | 1.24 |
BConnolly** | 2009-2010 | 17Y5M | 173 | 6th overall | 1.19 |
Mueller | 2005-2006 | 17Y6M | 203 | 8th overall | 1.12 |
Ladd | 2003-2004 | 17Y10M | 220 | 4th overall | 1.06 |
Virtanen | 2013-2014 | 17Y2M | 287 | 2014 draft | 1.00 |
Johansen | 2009-2010 | 17Y3M | 266 | 4th overall | 0.97 |
Setoguchi | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 234 | 8th overall | 0.93 |
Niederreiter | 2009-2010 | 17Y1M | 266 | 5th overall | 0.92 |
** BConnolly only played 16 games his pre-draft season, scoring 19 points. Due to this very small sample size, he is left off the rest of the charts.
With this first chart, we can already see that it is pretty much four players above the rest for their pre-draft season. Reinhart's PPG/age combination is clearly above that of Draisaitl. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is comparable to each because he is quite a bit younger. Evander Kane is even younger, but his team scored 50+ more goals than that of the other three.... According to the data from this chart, I'd say Reinhart is clearly ahead of the other three, who are all around the same.
After that, there is a group of players who were selected 6th-8th overall and largely haven't done much in the NHL. Using the data from this chart, perhaps order of impressiveness goes something like: Brule, Hamill, Glennie, Connolly, Mueller. (Note that Connolly's data is only from 16 games played, due to injury.)
The bottom group has actually had quite a bit more NHL success than the middle group. Both Ladd and Johansen (CLB now) went 4th overall and have had great success in the NHL (Johansen just breaking through this season), while Setoguchi went 8th overall and has been a useful NHLer, and Niederreiter was 5th overall and his NHL career is very much to-be-determined....
Yet none of these four put up points anywhere close to that of the top-4.
Comparing Draisaitl's 1.64 PPG with Setoguchi's or Ladd's PPG is like comparing a Tavares 80-pt season with a Callahan 50-pt season-- it really is silly to try to compare the two. In other words, the bottom group-- and even the middle group-- aren't really good comparables for Reinhart, Draisaitl, RNHopkins, and EKane. But I will leave everyone in for all the charts (except Connolly), because there haven't been many good pre-draft comparable seasons by WHL forwards the past 12 years, unlike the OHL.
Player | Pre-draft Year | Age start season | Team Goals For | NHL draft pos | Points-per-game |
Niederreiter | 2009-2010 | 17Y1M | 266 | 5th overall | 0.92 |
EKane | 2008-2009 | 17Y2M | 319 | 4th overall | 1.46 |
Virtanen | 2013-2014 | 17Y2M | 287 | 2014 draft | 1.00 |
Johansen | 2009-2010 | 17Y3M | 266 | 4th overall | 0.97 |
RNHopkins | 2010-2011 | 17Y6M | 268 | 1st overall | 1.54 |
Mueller | 2005-2006 | 17Y6M | 203 | 8th overall | 1.12 |
Glennie | 2008-2009 | 17Y8M | 295 | 8th overall | 1.27 |
Brule | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 212 | 6th overall | 1.24 |
Setoguchi | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 234 | 8th overall | 0.93 |
Ladd | 2003-2004 | 17Y10M | 220 | 4th overall | 1.06 |
SReinhart | 2013-2014 | 17Y11M | 235 | 2014 draft | 1.75 |
Draisaitl | 2013-2014 | 18Y0M | 243 | 2014 draft | 1.64 |
Hamill | 2006-2007 | 18Y1M | 239 | 8th overall | 1.30 |
Here is the same data sorted by age. Out of the older players, there has only been one top-5 pick. But none of the older players have had near the points-per-game as Reinhart or Draisaitl. If nothing else, this chart helps to reinforce*** the lack of comparables. Reinhart and Draisaitl scored too much.
***Keep "ReinForce" in the memory bank, incase Isles can figure out how to collect all three: Griffin, Sam, and Max.
Player | Pre-draft Year | Age start season | Team Goals For | NHL draft pos | Points-per-game |
EKane | 2008-2009 | 17Y2M | 319 | 4th overall | 1.46 |
Glennie | 2008-2009 | 17Y8M | 295 | 8th overall | 1.27 |
Virtanen | 2013-2014 | 17Y2M | 287 | 2014 draft | 1.00 |
RNHopkins | 2010-2011 | 17Y6M | 268 | 1st overall | 1.54 |
Niederreiter | 2009-2010 | 17Y1M | 266 | 5th overall | 0.92 |
Johansen | 2009-2010 | 17Y3M | 266 | 4th overall | 0.97 |
Draisaitl | 2013-2014 | 18Y0M | 243 | 2014 draft | 1.64 |
Hamill | 2006-2007 | 18Y1M | 239 | 8th overall | 1.30 |
SReinhart | 2013-2014 | 17Y11M | 235 | 2014 draft | 1.75 |
Setoguchi | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 234 | 8th overall | 0.93 |
Ladd | 2003-2004 | 17Y10M | 220 | 4th overall | 1.06 |
Brule | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 212 | 6th overall | 1.24 |
Mueller | 2005-2006 | 17Y6M | 203 | 8th overall | 1.12 |
Same data, this time sorted by team-goals-scored. As we see, Draisaitl's and Reinhart's teams scored about an average number of goals despite their incredible production, while Virtanen's team scored quite a few more goals.
Player | Pre-draft Year | Age | Top-5 points % | NHL draft pos | PPG | Breakthrough NHL |
Draisaitl | 2013-2014 | 18Y0M | 29.70% | 2014 draft | 1.64 | TBD |
SReinhart | 2013-2014 | 17Y11M | 28.40% | 2014 draft | 1.75 | TBD |
Brule | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 28.20% | 6th overall | 1.24 | Bust |
RNHopkins | 2010-2011 | 17Y6M | 27.00% | 1st overall | 1.54 | 1st season 52 pts in 62 |
Hamill | 2006-2007 | 18Y1M | 23.60% | 8th overall | 1.30 | Bust |
EKane | 2008-2009 | 17Y2M | 23.00% | 4th overall | 1.46 | 2nd season 43 pts in 73 |
Ladd | 2003-2004 | 17Y10M | 22.70% | 4th overall | 1.06 | 5th season 49 pts in 82 |
Glennie | 2008-2009 | 17Y8M | 21.10% | 8th overall | 1.27 | Bust |
Mueller | 2005-2006 | 17Y6M | 21.10% | 8th overall | 1.12 | 2nd season 54 pts in 81 |
Virtanen | 2013-2014 | 17Y2M | 20.00% | 2014 draft | 1.00 | TBD |
Johansen | 2009-2010 | 17Y3M | 19.70% | 4th overall | 0.97 | 4th season 63 pts in 82 |
Setoguchi | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 19.30% | 8th overall | 0.93 | 4th season 65 pts in 81 |
Niederreiter | 2009-2010 | 17Y1M | 18.70% | 5th overall | 0.92 | TBD |
Out of the top five scorers on his team, Draisaitl had 29.7% of the points, according to the individuals' points-per-game. This chart is another indication that Evander Kane had more help scoring than the other three top prospects. That is not necessarily a big red flag, though. Johansen scored less than 20%, but he had a heck of a 2013-14 NHL season. He had a good enough pre-draft season to be selected in the 2010 draft before Connolly and Skinner (OHL), who each showed more offensive promise their pre-draft seasons-- especially the much smaller Skinner.... But this chart does suggest that Draisaitl and Reinhart faced the toughest shutdown opponents night after night, without a ton of offense help from their line mates. That is worth something, especially for Draisaitl, who wasn't as highly regarded as Reinhart coming into the 2013-14 season.
Also note that RNHopkins is the only player to put up considerable NHL points his immediate post-draft season. (But he's also the only one to have close to the points-per-game pace as Reinhart and Draisaitl.) Kane was able to produce in the NHL in his 2nd post-draft season. So the only two real comparables transitioned rather quickly to the NHL from the WHL.
Player | Pre-draft Year | Age | WHL goals stretched | NHL goals stretched | Breakthrough NHL |
EKane | 2008-2009 | 17Y2M | 65 | 33 | 2nd season 43 pts in 73 |
Virtanen | 2013-2014 | 17Y2M | 52 | N/A | TBD |
Draisaitl | 2013-2014 | 18Y0M | 49 | N/A | TBD |
SReinhart | 2013-2014 | 17Y11M | 49 | N/A | TBD |
Brule | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 46 | 21 | Bust |
Niederreiter | 2009-2010 | 17Y1M | 45 | N/A | TBD |
Glennie | 2008-2009 | 17Y8M | 42 | Bust | Bust |
Mueller | 2005-2006 | 17Y6M | 41 | 15 | 2nd season 54 pts in 81 |
Setoguchi | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 39 | 31 | 4th season 65 pts in 81 |
Hamill | 2006-2007 | 18Y1M | 38 | Bust | Bust |
RNHopkins | 2010-2011 | 17Y6M | 37 | 24 | 1st season 52 pts in 62 |
Ladd | 2003-2004 | 17Y10M | 35 | 29 | 5th season 49 pts in 82 |
Johansen | 2009-2010 | 17Y3M | 29 | 33 | 4th season 63 pts in 82 |
Here is each forward's WHL pre-draft season's goals-per-game, stretched to 82 games so that we can compare it with his best NHL season thus far (also stretched to 82 games). Evander Kane blew everyone else away, but do remember that he had more offensive support than all the others.... Virtanen also had more team-support scoring his goals than Draisaitl or Reinhart.
If anything, there is an inverse-correlation between goals scored in the WHL and goals scored at the NHL level. Kane scored more than 2x the pace of Johansen their pre-draft WHL seasons, yet, they scored equally their best NHL seasons, thus far. Ladd, Nugent-Hopkins, and Setoguchi (cough-Thornton) each had good seasons scoring goals in the NHL after scoring at less than a 40-goal pace their pre-draft seasons.
One thing to note is that none of these forwards seem to have successfully transformed his game to more of a grinding role after struggling not to score in the NHL, enabling him to stick as a bottom-6 forward. Setoguchi is probably the closest to this description. And Niederreiter could possibly end up fitting that. But for Brule, Glennie, Mueller, and Hamill, their games didn't quite translate to the NHL. And perhaps Hamill and Brule simply don't have the physical ability to play in a more defensive role.... Of course, this probably won't affect Reinhart or Draisaitl. Each promises to put up at least good 2nd line point-totals in the NHL.
Player | Pre-draft Year | Age | Top-5 points % | NHL draft pos | PPG | Breakthrough NHL |
6'3" | ||||||
Ladd | 2003-2004 | 17Y10M | 22.70% | 4th overall | 1.06 | 5th season 49 pts in 82 |
Johansen | 2009-2010 | 17Y3M | 19.70% | 4th overall | 0.97 | 4th season 63 pts in 82 |
6'2" | ||||||
EKane | 2008-2009 | 17Y2M | 23.00% | 4th overall | 1.46 | 2nd season 43 pts in 73 |
Mueller | 2005-2006 | 17Y6M | 21.10% | 8th overall | 1.12 | 2nd season 54 pts in 81 |
Niederreiter | 2009-2010 | 17Y1M | 18.70% | 5th overall | 0.92 | TBD |
6'1" | ||||||
SReinhart | 2013-2014 | 17Y11M | 28.40% | 2014 draft | 1.75 | TBD |
Draisaitl | 2013-2014 | 18Y0M | 29.70% | 2014 draft | 1.64 | TBD |
Glennie | 2008-2009 | 17Y8M | 21.10% | 8th overall | 1.27 | Bust |
Virtanen | 2013-2014 | 17Y2M | 20.00% | 2014 draft | 1.00 | TBD |
6'0" | ||||||
RNHopkins | 2010-2011 | 17Y6M | 27.00% | 1st overall | 1.54 | 1st season 52 pts in 62 |
Setoguchi | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 19.30% | 8th overall | 0.93 | 4th season 65 pts in 81 |
5'11" | ||||||
Hamill | 2006-2007 | 18Y1M | 23.60% | 8th overall | 1.30 | Bust |
Brule | 2004-2005 | 17Y9M | 28.20% | 6th overall | 1.24 | Bust |
Ah, and now we come to the height chart. Does this one show anything? It is interesting to compare this one along with the OHL chart at the bottom of this FanPost. For instance, all the players taller than 6'2" (who have been drafted top-10 the past 12 years) have been selected higher than their points-per-game would suggest drafting them, and all of them have done very well at the NHL level: Ladd, Johansen, EStaal, Carter, and JStaal.... Yet Jordan Staal is the only one of the five to have his breakout season within two years of being drafted: 42 pts his immediate post-draft season.
And how about the shortest forwards? The shortest forwards selected top-10 the past 12 years are/were 5'11": Hamill, Brule, Yakupov, Duchene, Skinner. Each of these five either had a very good immediate post-draft NHL season-- as the OHLers did-- or they busted-- as the WHLers did. And Yakupov may pull off both! I guess if a forward is a little under-sized, he better be playing near an NHL-level already to use a top-10 pick on him.
Meanwhile, the sweet-spot for high-scoring forwards in the NHL seems to be around 6'1" right now. There are scorers of all different heights, but forwards around 6'1" (or 6'0" with abnormally strong legs-- the shorter the player, the stronger the legs have to be-- Crosby 5'11" needs very strong legs, St Louis 5'8" needs freakish legs) are often the most dynamic, able to use a combination of power and finesse to score. (Seguin, Stamkos, Tavares, Kessel, Hall, Sharp.)... At 6'1", Reinhart, Draisaitl, and Virtanen are a good height to succeed as scorers in the NHL.
Also a big thing to consider: Virtanen (210 lbs) and Draisaitl (209 lbs) are already NHL-weight. Compare with some of larger Isles forwards listed on NYI website right now: Lee (225), Martin (206), McDonald (214), Okposo (216), Nelson (196).