FanPost

Expanded List: Analysis of OHL forwards going top-10 in NHL drafts 2003-2013 (Dal Colle, Bennett, Ritchie, Perlini Comparables)

Incoming? - Claus Andersen

NOTE: This is in the process of the charts being converted. Also adding Ritchie and Perlini.

Here are all of the OHL forwards drafted top-10 since 2003. (And a couple more 11th and 13th from the 2003 Super-draft.) The majority of top NHL forward prospects have come through the OHL in recent seasons, including six 1st overall picks.

Player...Year...Age at start of season (Oct)... Goals scored by team during regular season... Points-per-game... draft position

(Bolded players entered draft immediately after the season.)

Player Pre-draft Year Age start season Team Goals For NHL draft pos Points-per-game
PKane 2006-2007 17Y11M 311 1st overall 2.50
SGagner 2006-2007 17Y2M 311 6th overall 2.23
Tavares 2006-2007 16Y1M 292 1st overall 2.00
Hall 2009-2010 17Y11M 331 1st overall 1.86
McDavid 2013-2014 16Y9M 312 2015 draft 1.77
Stamkos 2007-2008 17Y8M 251 1st overall 1.72
Seguin 2009-2010 17Y9M 245 2nd overall 1.68
Yakupov 2011-2012 18Y0M 243 1st overall 1.64
Strome 2010-2011 17Y3M 273 5th overall 1.63
Bennett 2013-2014 17Y4M 301 2014 draft 1.60
Yakupov 2010-2011 17Y0M 243 1st overall 1.55
EStaal 2009-2010 18Y0M 222 2nd overall 1.48
BRyan 2004-2005 17Y7M 245 2nd overall 1.44
Couture 2006-2007 17Y7M 242 9th overall 1.44
Bailey 2007-2008 18Y0M 279 9th overall 1.43
Dal Colle 2013-2014 17Y4M 232 2014 draft 1.42
Skinner 2009-2010 17Y5M 286 7th overall 1.41
Duchene 2008-2009 17Y9M 264 3rd overall 1.39
Kadri 2008-2009 18Y0M 287 7th overall 1.39
Monahan 2012-2013 18Y0M 209 6th overall 1.34
DBrown 2002-2003 17Y11M 217 13th in 2003 1.31
Horton 2002-2003 17Y5M 243 3rd overall 1.26
Hodgson 2007-2008 17Y8M 259 10th overall 1.25
Landeskog 2010-2011 17Y11M 256 2nd overall 1.25
Monahan 2011-2012 17Y0M 268 6th overall 1.24
Galchenyuk 2010-2011 16Y8M 243 3rd overall 1.22
Perlini 2013-2014 17Y6M 223 2014 draft 1.22
Ritchie 2013-2014 17Y10M 233 2014 draft 1.21
Boedker 2007-2008 17Y10M 289 8th overall 1.18
JCarter 2002-2003 17Y9M 232 11th in 2003 1.16
Scheifele 2010-2011 17Y7M 231 7th overall 1.14
Burmistrov 2009-2010 18Y0M 327 8th overall 1.05
JStaal 2005-2006 17Y1M 269 2nd overall 1.00
BPouliot 2004-2005 18Y1M 201 4th overall 0.97
Horvat 2012-2013 17Y6M 279 9th overall 0.91

NOTE: Connor McDavid is draft eligible in 2015...Other non-bolded players were in same position, under-aged.

First, I am going to eliminate a few who are not quite as comparable: Kane, Tavares, Hall, McDavid, and Gagner. The first four are clearly head-and-shoulders above Dal Colle, both talent-wise and on this chart. Gagner was on the same team as Kane, so his numbers are greatly inflated. I am also removing the under-aged seasons of Yakupov, Monahan, and Galchenyuk. They had follow-up seasons which influenced where they were drafted. (Monahan's and Yakupov's follow-up seasons remain on the chart. Galchenyuk was injured his pre-draft season.)

I am also going to remove the bottom four on the chart, except for Jordan Staal. The other three didn't have pre-draft seasons that were all that impressive from a points-per-game aspect. Staal was very young for his draft class, so 1.00 points-per-game is noteworthy.

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Here are the remaining players, this time sorted by age going into their pre-draft season:

So subtracting the super-elites (Tavares, Kane, Hall, McDavid), these are the youngest players to register an impressive points-per-game their pre-draft seasons.

Player Pre-draft Year Age start season Team Goals For NHL draft pos Points-per-game
JStaal 2005-2006 17Y1M 269 2nd overall 1.00
Strome 2010-2011 17Y3M 273 5th overall 1.63
Bennett 2013-2014 17Y4M 301 2014 draft 1.60
Dal Colle 2013-2014 17Y4M 232 2014 draft 1.42
Skinner 2009-2010 17Y5M 286 7th overall 1.41
Horton 2002-2003 17Y5M 243 3rd overall 1.26
Perlini 2013-2014 17Y6M 223 2014 draft 1.22
BRyan 2004-2005 17Y7M 245 2nd overall 1.44
Couture 2006-2007 17Y7M 242 9th overall 1.44
Scheifele 2010-2011 17Y7M 231 7th overall 1.14
Stamkos 2007-2008 17Y8M 251 1st overall 1.72
Hodgson 2013-2014 17Y8M 235 2014 draft 1.75
Seguin 2013-2014 17Y9M 243 2014 draft 1.64
Duchene 2006-2007 17Y9M 239 8th overall 1.30
JCarter 2002-2003 17Y9M 232 11th in 2003 1.16
Ritchie 2013-2014 17Y10M 233 2014 draft 1.21
Boedker 2007-2008 17Y10M 289 8th overall 1.18
DBrown 2002-2003 17Y11M 217 13th in 2003 1.31
Landeskog 2010-2011 17Y11M 256 2nd overall 1.25
Yakupov 2011-2012 18Y0M 243 1st overall 1.64
EStaal 2002-2003 18Y0M 222 2nd overall 1.48
Bailey 2007-2008 18Y0M 279 9th overall 1.43
Kadri 2008-2009 18Y0M 287 7th overall 1.39
Monahan 2012-2013 18Y0M 209 6th overall 1.34

This chart helps to show why Strome wasn't really a reach for Islanders at 5th overall.

It also shows that the youngest forwards drafted top-10 from the OHL the past 11 years have transitioned well into the NHL: JStaal, Strome, Skinner, and Horton were the only ones under 17.5 years to start their pre-draft season, until Bennett and Dal Colle this season. And three of the four played in the NHL the season after they were drafted.

In fact, there doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between age going into the draft and when the player's break-out season will occur in the NHL, according to this chart.

What strikes me the most, perhaps, is there isn't a flat-out bust in the entire group. Bailey hasn't quite met expectations, but for 9th overall he's panned out okay. Boedker (8th), Hodgson (10th), Strome (5th) and Scheifele (7th) have hit bumps, but all appear on track to becoming solid NHLers.... And except for Strome, their numbers (especially combined with age) are nowhere near Dal Colle or Bennett.... Yakupov has been disappointing, but it's only been two years. He could easily turn into a very good (even great) NHLer still.

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How about ordered by team-goals scored? Which players may have benefited from playing on teams who simply scored a lot of goals?

Player Pre-draft Year Age start season Team Goals For NHL draft pos Points-per-game
Bennett 2013-2014 17Y4M 301 2014 draft 1.60
Boedker 2007-2008 17Y10M 289 8th overall 1.18
Kadri 2008-2009 18Y0M 287 7th overall 1.39
Skinner 2009-2010 17Y5M 286 7th overall 1.41
Bailey 2007-2008 18Y0M 279 9th overall 1.43
Strome 2010-2011 17Y3M 273 5th overall 1.63
JStaal 2005-2006 17Y1M 269 2nd overall 1.00
Duchene 2006-2007 17Y9M 239 3rd overall 1.30
Hodgson 2013-2014 17Y8M 235 10th overall 1.75
Landeskog 2010-2011 17Y11M 256 2nd overall 1.25
Stamkos 2007-2008 17Y8M 251 1st overall 1.72
BRyan 2004-2005 17Y7M 245 2nd overall 1.44
Seguin 2013-2014 17Y9M 243 2nd overall 1.64
Horton 2002-2003 17Y5M 243 3rd overall 1.26
Yakupov 2011-2012 18Y0M 243 1st overall 1.64
Couture 2006-2007 17Y7M 242 9th overall 1.44
Ritchie 2013-2014 17Y10M 233 2014 draft 1.21
Dal Colle 2013-2014 17Y4M 232 2014 draft 1.42
JCarter 2002-2003 17Y9M 232 11th in 2003 1.16
Scheifele 2010-2011 17Y7M 231 7th overall 1.14
Perlini 2013-2014 17Y6M 223 2014 draft 1.22
EStaal 2002-2003 18Y0M 222 2nd overall 1.48
DBrown 2002-2003 17Y11M 217 13th in 2003 1.31
Monahan 2012-2013 18Y0M 209 6th overall 1.34

Does this chart tell us anything? I am not sure. It perhaps suggests that Bailey benefitted by being on a high-scoring team. And maybe Brown (or even Monahan) went under-the-radar for their drafts because their Junior teams simply couldn't help them record points.

But then what do we make of Skinner and Jordan Staal being towards the top of the chart? Each transitioned very well into the NHL-- surely better than expected for Skinner. Did teams let Skinner slip in the draft because they thought his numbers were inflated from being on a high-scoring team? Did the same happen with Strome? Will it happen with Bennett?

Regardless, this is an encouraging chart for Dal Colle. The only others on teams scoring under 250 goals to come near Dal Colle's points-per-game clip were Ryan, Seguin, Horton, Yakupov, Couture, Monahan, E Staal, and Brown.

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Below is a chart of one other way to look at how the scoring of teammates is perhaps inflating numbers. I added up the points-per-game of the top 5 scorers on the player's Junior team (includes his own). I then divided the player's points-per-game number by the larger number. The goal is to try to figure out what percentage of points the player scored out of the top-5 scoring players on his team. (The accuracy of this depends somewhat on games played by each player.).... BTW, this is a measurement that Draisaitl would look very impressive. I'll get to WHL charts soon, with an expanded list.

I substituted this new number in place of the team-scoring number and ordered by this new number.

Player Pre-draft Year Age Top-5 points % NHL draft pos PPG Breakthrough NHL
Seguin 2009-2010 17Y9M 30.00% 2nd overall 1.68 2nd 67 in 81
Couture 2006-2007 17Y7M 28.10% 9th overall 1.44 4th 56 in 79
EStaal 2002-2003 18Y0M 27.90% 3rd overall 1.48 3rd 100 in 82
Bennett 2013-2014 17Y4M 27.60% 2014 draft 1.6 TBD
Yakupov 2011-2012 18Y0M 27.40% 1st overall 1.64 1st 31 in 48
Monahan 2012-2013 18Y0M 27.30% 6th overall 1.34 1st 34 in 75
Strome 2010-2011 17Y3M 26.60% 5th overall 1.63 3rd 18 in 37
DBrown 2002-2003 17Y11M 26.10% 13th in 2003 1.31 4th 46 in 81
Ritchie 2013-2014 17Y10M 25.80% 2014 draft 1.21 TBD
Stamkos 2007-2008 17Y8M 25.10% 1st overall 1.72 1st 46 in 79; 2nd 95
Perlini 2013-2014 17Y6M 24.90% 2014 draft 1.22 TBD
Dal Colle 2013-2014 17Y4M 24.70% 2014 draft 1.42 TBD
BRyan 2004-2005 17Y7M 24.10% 2nd overall 1.44 4th 57 in 64
JCarter 2002-2003 17Y9M 23.90% 11th in 2003 1.16 3rd 42 in 81
Bailey 2007-2008 18Y0M 23.60% 9th overall 1.43 2nd 35 in 73
Duchene 2008-2009 17Y9M 23.20% 3rd overall 1.39 1st 55 in 81
Horton 2002-2003 17Y5M 23.10% 3rd overall 1.26 1st 22 in 55; 2nd 35
Skinner 2009-2010 17Y5M 22.10% 7th overall 1.41 1st 63
Hodgson 2007-2008 17Y8M 21.50% 10th overall 1.25 4th 33 in 63
Kadri 2008-2009 18Y0M 21.00% 7th overall 1.39 4th 44 in 48
Landeskog 2010-2011 17Y11M 20.90% 2nd overall 1.25 1st 52 in 82
Scheifele 2010-2011 17Y7M 20.40% 7th overall 1.14 3rd 34 in 63
Boedker 2007-2008 17Y10M 17.50% 8th overall 1.18 1st 28 in 78; 6th 51
JStaal 2005-2006 17Y1M 17.00% 2nd overall 1 1st 42

Aha! This chart seems a little more telling than the last one. Most of the best scoring talent rises to the top of this one, while it shows that Scheifele, Boedker, Hodgson, and Kadri may have benefited from being on a pre-draft Juniors team with other high-scorers. (Kadri had Tavares, for example.) Bennett finds himself among great scoring talent, especially considering his age. And Dal Colle is surrounded by good company himself, especially considering his age.

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This following chart is goals-per-game for each player his pre-draft season. Instead of using a decimal, I multiplied by 82 so that we could see what it would look like over a long season. (I realize they only play about 60 games in the OHL, but with 82 we can compare it to the player's best NHL season for goals-per-game stretched out over 82 games.)

So, for instance, Stamkos scored at a 74-goal pace (over 82 games) his pre-draft OHL season. Then he scored at a 60-goal pace (over 82 games) his best NHL season so far.... A few of the younger guys are 'N/A' because they don't seem to have come near their career-season for goals in the NHL yet.

Player Pre-draft Year Age WHL goals stretched NHL goals stretched Breakthrough NHL
Stamkos 2007-2008 17Y8M 74 60 1st 46 in 79; 2nd 95
Skinner 2009-2010 17Y5M 64 38 1st 63
Seguin 2009-2010 17Y9M 62 38 2nd 67 in 81
Yakupov 2011-2012 18Y0M 61 N/A 1st 31 in 48

Landeskog

2010-2011 17Y11M 56 26 1st 52 in 82
Bennett 2013-2014 17Y4M 52 N/A TBD
Ritchie 2013-2014 17Y10M 52 N/A TBD
Horton 2002-2003 17Y5M 50 32 1st 22 in 55; 2nd 35
BRyan 2004-2005 17Y7M 49 35 4th 57 in 64
Dal Colle 2013-2014 17Y4M 48 N/A TBD
Perlini 2013-2014 17Y6M 48 N/A TBD
Hodgson 2007-2008 17Y8M 48 27 4th 33 in 63
DBrown 2002-2003 17Y11M 48 32 4th 46 in 81
EStaal 2002-2003 18Y0M 48 40 3rd 100 in 82
JCarter 2002-2003 17Y9M 47 46 3rd 42 in 81
Duchene 2008-2009 17Y9M 45 30 1st 55 in 81

Monahan

2012-2013 18Y0M 44 44 1st 34 in 75
Strome 2010-2011 17Y3M 42 42 3rd 18 in 37
Couture 2006-2007 17Y7M 39 36 4th 56 in 79
Boedker 2007-2008 17Y10M 38 19 1st 28 in 78; 6th 51
Kadri 2008-2009 18Y0M 37 38 4th 44 in 48
Bailey 2007-2008 18Y0M 35 24 2nd 35 in 73
JStaal 2005-2006 17Y1M 34 33 1st 42
Scheifele 2010-2011 17Y7M 27 27 3rd 34 in 63

The first group on this chart is elite OHL goal scorers. (Along with Tavares, Kane, Gagner, and Hall, I am sure.) They each were 1st overall-- or at least borderline-- talent, except for Skinner, who fell to 7th in the draft largely because of size concerns.

The next group has Bennett and Dal Colle near the middle of it. Notice how they are the youngest in the group, which is a good sign. The expected career-season in the NHL for this group seems to be about 30-40 goals. This is mostly 2nd/3rd overall talent, with Brown and Carter from the 2003 super-draft, and Hodgson 2008 10th overall. (I cut off Monahan because he was older, but you can easily include Monahan and Strome in the middle group, if you'd like.... Or you could cut off Duchene from the middle group.)

The bottom group has three players who just about matched their OHL pre-draft goal-pace in their best NHL season: Couture, Kadri, and Jordan Staal. (Carter also did this.) That is significant when looking at Bennett's 52-goal pace and Dal Colle's 48-goal pace. Perhaps a career season of 40-45 goals for either is not out of the question if they develop well. (Although a modest estimate, according to this data, would be a career-season around 35 goals, perhaps averaging 25-30 for peak seasons.... Perhaps more if with Tavares.)

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Next up: organizing by height. Let me be clear. Height is often misleading, as body type/frame is generally more important in discussing size. (Would you rather have 6'0" Brown or 6'1" Bailey?) However, since height is the only measurement of size I could find that is fairly consistent with all the players (comparing 18 year-old weight to 22 year-old weight is useless), here are the heights.

NOTE: I used hockey database to find heights. The official prospect height measurement is 6'0.25" for Bennett and 6'1.5" for Dal Colle. (I'm sure some of these other players are rounded up too, though.)

Assuming 6'1" is average height for an NHL forward, they are divided into three groups: taller than average, average, and shorter than avergage.

EStaal.......2002-03....18Y0M....6'4"....1.48 (2nd) (3rd 100 in 82)

JCarter.....2002-03.....17Y9M....6'4"....1.16 (11th super-2003) (3rd 42 in 81)

JStaal........2005-06....17Y1M.....6'4"....1.00 (2nd) (1st season 42 points)

Monahan.....2012-13....18Y0M...6'2"...1.34 (6th) (1st 34 in 75, TBD)

Dal Colle...2013-14...17Y4M...6'2"...1.42 (2014 draft)

BRyan........2004-05....17Y7M....6'2".....1.44 (2nd) (4th 57 in 64)

Horton........2002-03....17Y5M...6'2"...1.26 (3rd) (1st 22 in 55; 2nd 47 in 71)

Scheifele...2010-11......17Y7M....6'2"....1.14 (7th) (3rd 34 in 63)

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Seguin........2009-10...17Y9M...6'1"....1.68 (2nd) (2nd 67 in 81)

Couture....2006-07...17Y7M....6'1".....1.44 (9th) (4th 56 in 79)

Strome........2010-11...17Y3M....6'1"...1.63 (5th) (3rd season 18 pts in 37 games)

Stamkos....2007-08...17Y8M...6'1"....1.72 (1st) (1st 46 in 79; 2nd 95 in 82)

Bailey......2007-08....18Y0M....6'1".....1.43 (9th) (1st 25 in 68; 2nd 35 in 73)

Landeskog..2010-11...17Y11M...6'1"...1.25 (2nd) (1st 52 in 82)

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Bennett.....2013-14...17Y4M...6'0"....1.60 (2014 draft)

DBrown.......2002-02...17Y11M..6'0"...1.31 (13th super-2003) (4th 46 in 81)

Hodgson...2007-08.....17Y8M...6'0"...1.25 (10th) (4th 33 in 63)

Kadri..........2008-09....18Y0M....6'0"...1.39 (7th) (4th 44 in 48)

Boedker....2007-08....17Y10M..6'0"....1.18 (8th) (1st 28 in 78; 5th 26 in 48; 6th 51 in 82)

Yakupov.....2011-12....18Y0M...5'11"....1.64 (1st) (1st 31 in 48)

Duchene......2008-09..17Y9M...5'11"...1.39 (3rd) (1st 55 in 81)

Skinner......2009-10....17Y5M....5'11"...1.41 (7th) (1st season 63 points)

One thing I find interesting about the bottom group: the three shortest players each had very good immediate post-draft seasons. They are all excellent skaters. Yakupov and Skinner each struggled their 2nd season. (Injuries for Skinner?)

None of the tall players had a great immediate post-draft, from their NHL numbers and what I recall. Monahan and JStaal were helpful immediately in the NHL, though.

Out of the tall players, it seems Dal Colle has the most impressive combination of points-per-game and age, but Bobby Ryan is close. (In fact, even including Tavares, Hall, Kane, and Gagner, this is true, as none are taller than 6'1", according to hockeydb.)... When you consider Eric Staal is 2 inches taller than Dal Colle, his combination of points-per-game, age, and height is perhaps more impressive than Dal Colle.... So Dal Colle had arguably the most impressive pre-draft season out of any of the OHL forward prospects above average height, when we take age into consideration, the past 12 drafts. (I know he is only 1/2 an inch taller than Strome, Seguin, Stamkos and Hall, who each had a more impressive pre-draft season than Dal Colle, but I thought it was noteworthy.)

The average height players (6'1") are 4 NHL stars, Strome (who looks like he could develop into an NHL star), and Bailey.

From scouting reports it seems Dal Colle needs to add more muscle, but he does play with some physicality, and he has a wide enough frame to put on muscle without slowing his skating much.

It seems that in large, the better skaters transition better to the NHL than the lesser skaters. Skating ability seems especially important-- moreso than size. But everyone who has had a good combination of both has succeeded at the NHL level. (Bailey lacks in each department, compared to most of these guys.... Going by scouting reports it seems like Dal Colle is already ahead of Bailey in physicality, and perhaps skating too.)

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One last chart. This is an effort to use all of this information to rank the players. Basically, I combined points-per-game and age (~60%), team goals (~12%), % top-5 scoring (~12%), goals/game (~12%), and height (~4%). More detailed explanation in next paragraph, for those interested. (It is technical, so feel free to skip it.)

I took points-per-game, added 0.03** for each month a player was under 18Y0M. Then I organized that into a ranking. I multiplied that ranking by 5. Then I did rankings for each of the other three charts (1 through 22). Then I gave each player a number for height (1, 3, 5, 7, depending on height). Then I totaled up the numbers from the rankings for each player.

**It took me a while to decide on 0.03. With this number, a player 17Y0M scoring 1.20 points-per-game is equal to a player 18Y0M scoring 1.56 points-per-game. That seems about right.... But of course each player develops physically at a different pace. Feel free to disagree over this number!... Jordan Staal is still near the bottom of this list for most impressive pre-draft season scoring-wise, despite being 9-11 months younger than a lot of these guys, and being compensated for that.

(Of course, going by stats, Tavares, PKane, Hall, and Gagner would slot in before these players.)

Ranking...(Score)...(draft position)

1) Stamkos (37) (1st overall)

2) Seguin (39) (2nd)

3) Bennett (49) (TBD)

4) Strome (50) (5th)

5) Dal Colle (53) (TBD)

6) Yakupov (56) (1st)

7) EStaal (69) (3rd)

8) Couture (71) (4th)

9) BRyan (73) (4th)

10) Skinner (81) (7th)

11) Horton (94) (3rd)

12) Duchene (102) (3rd)

13) Monahan (105) (6th)

14) Hodgson (108) (10th)

15) Brown (108) (13th in super-draft)

16) Bailey (126) (9th)

17) Carter (136) (11th in super-draft)

18) Kadri (139) (7th)

19) Landeskog (142) (2nd)

20) Scheifele (144) (7th)

21) JStaal (150) (2nd)

22) Boedker (177) (8th)

The top 12 or 13 forwards on this list all look like very good NHLers to me. Could Bennett or Dal Colle bust? Sure. Will either? The numbers indicate they won't.

<em>Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.</em>

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