FanPost

Jack Capuano and the Islanders Fourth Line (and Cory Conacher)

Bruce Bennett

A main point of contention entering the season was the coaching staff and the fact that it wasn't completely revamped. To many, this team simply cannot win with Jack Capuano in charge. While the team is 5-2 now, there have been no shortages in frustrating moments regarding the tactics and personnel that Capuano has used in particular situations. Going into a complete shell in the third period against Boston, the collapse against Toronto and whatever that game against the Stars was all had people up in arms over what this team's strategy is. The most common complaints involve his failure to change the lines, the usage of the fourth line and the repeated use of them in predictable situations, most notably after goals.

Last season the Islanders fourth line was the most utilized in all of hockey, but where are they this year? To isolate this, all players were thrown into a pool and their minutes were taken as a percentile. Those in the 75th percentile on their respective teams were classified as first liners, the 50th as second liners, the 25th as third liners and the remainder as fourth liners.

Players that haven't played in fifty percent of their teams' games didn't count (so Lee and McDonald were not factored in). The minutes listed are the averages of the players belonging to each line. Going through and isolating the five on five minutes this season, the fourth line has seen slightly less usage than last year. They are now the second most utilized fourth line in all of hockey in terms of occupying a percentage of five on five minutes. The minutes have barely budged from 10.48.

Team As Minutes As a Percentage
Line 1 Line 2 Line 3 Line 4 Line 1 Line 2 Line 3 Line 4
Ottawa 12.32 11.56 10.69 9.83 27.74% 26.03% 24.08% 22.15%
NY Islanders 14.93 11.75 10.80 10.36 31.21% 24.56% 22.58% 21.65%
Nashville 13.49 12.14 11.43 10.14 28.57% 25.72% 24.22% 21.49%
Edmonton 15.00 12.49 10.95 10.40 30.71% 25.57% 22.42% 21.30%
Columbus 12.75 12.06 11.46 9.72 27.72% 26.22% 24.92% 21.14%
Calgary 13.70 13.02 12.89 10.56 27.31% 25.96% 25.69% 21.05%
Vancouver 12.94 11.24 10.80 9.31 29.21% 25.37% 24.38% 21.03%
Tampa Bay 13.69 11.98 10.10 9.42 30.29% 26.51% 22.36% 20.85%
Boston 13.38 12.78 11.78 9.89 27.98% 26.71% 24.63% 20.68%
Los Angeles 13.71 12.40 11.04 9.61 29.32% 26.52% 23.62% 20.55%
Dallas 14.31 12.39 11.06 9.75 30.12% 26.07% 23.28% 20.52%
Detroit 13.61 11.97 11.04 9.25 29.67% 26.08% 24.07% 20.17%
San Jose 14.18 13.20 12.28 9.93 28.59% 26.62% 24.77% 20.02%
NY Rangers 13.94 12.46 11.77 9.47 29.25% 26.16% 24.71% 19.87%
Florida 12.13 11.35 10.18 8.32 28.90% 27.04% 24.25% 19.81%
Carolina 13.69 12.94 12.23 9.41 28.36% 26.81% 25.34% 19.49%
Anaheim 14.06 12.64 10.77 8.98 30.27% 27.21% 23.18% 19.34%
Buffalo 13.86 12.73 11.51 8.98 29.45% 27.04% 24.44% 19.07%
Winnipeg 13.46 12.59 11.00 8.30 29.68% 27.77% 24.25% 18.31%
Montreal 13.56 13.01 11.01 8.41 29.48% 28.28% 23.95% 18.29%
St. Louis 13.83 13.06 11.25 8.46 29.68% 28.03% 24.13% 18.16%
Colorado 13.09 11.98 10.56 7.75 30.17% 27.62% 24.33% 17.87%
Minnesota 13.75 12.51 11.08 8.04 30.30% 27.57% 24.42% 17.71%
Arizona 13.51 12.60 11.02 7.92 29.99% 27.98% 24.46% 17.58%
Pittsburgh 14.21 13.19 11.41 8.21 30.23% 28.05% 24.26% 17.47%
Chicago 14.20 13.29 10.51 7.83 30.98% 29.00% 22.93% 17.08%
Washington 15.00 12.52 11.38 7.85 32.07% 26.78% 24.35% 16.80%
New Jersey 13.68 12.73 11.57 7.29 30.21% 28.13% 25.56% 16.10%
Toronto 14.38 12.93 11.91 7.09 31.05% 27.92% 25.71% 15.32%
Philadelphia 14.48 13.33 10.70 6.95 31.85% 29.33% 23.55% 15.28%

So the fourth line's utilization has fallen to second. Meanwhile the second line is now the least used in hockey and the third line is the third least used. Interestingly enough, the first line has seen an increase in minutes and is now the third most used line in all of hockey in five on five situations. This is all great for the first line since they're a proven commodity, but how has the fourth line played compared to other fourth liners organizations? The Corsi ratings should say everything that needs to be said. Note that in this case relative Corsi in this instance is a measure of the total team with all players and doesn't adjust for players that have been injured, demoted or moved. Here are the zone adjusted Corsi numbers.

Team TOI CF CA CF/20 CA/20 CF% CFREL%
Detroit 222.10 190 119 17.11 10.72 61.49% 9.66%
Chicago 144.93 174 113 24.01 15.59 60.63% 4.93%
NY Rangers 193.95 159 127 16.40 13.10 55.59% 2.01%
St. Louis 149.28 134 99 17.95 13.26 57.51% 0.89%
NY Islanders 217.15 176 173 16.21 15.93 50.43% 0.71%
Tampa Bay 235.58 172 152 14.60 12.90 53.09% -0.29%
Ottawa 185.87 145 183 15.60 19.69 44.21% -0.38%
Los Angeles 166.38 142 135 17.07 16.23 51.26% -0.43%
Dallas 215.18 169 189 15.71 17.57 47.21% -0.61%
Edmonton 249.67 198 211 15.86 16.90 48.41% -1.10%
Washington 142.00 115 103 16.20 14.51 52.75% -1.40%
Carolina 197.57 129 146 13.06 14.78 46.91% -2.43%
Buffalo 221.82 120 224 10.82 20.20 34.88% -2.84%
Anaheim 206.13 145 172 14.07 16.69 45.74% -2.93%
Winnipeg 174.33 111 134 12.73 15.37 45.31% -3.92%
Florida 158.40 115 121 14.52 15.28 48.73% -4.94%
Philadelphia 97.87 69 94 14.10 19.21 42.33% -5.46%
Pittsburgh 162.18 103 114 12.70 14.06 47.47% -5.80%
Columbus 204.20 147 179 14.40 17.53 45.09% -5.87%
Calgary 304.88 185 298 12.14 19.55 38.30% -6.78%
Boston 199.02 125 140 12.56 14.07 47.17% -8.22%
Colorado 179.13 107 176 11.95 19.65 37.81% -8.65%
Nashville 222.97 130 162 11.66 14.53 44.52% -10.03%
Minnesota 144.65 102 114 14.10 15.76 47.22% -11.53%
Arizona 152.07 94 145 12.36 19.07 39.33% -11.71%
Montreal 176.97 100 142 11.30 16.05 41.32% -12.70%
Vancouver 195.55 104 156 10.64 15.95 40.00% -12.79%
New Jersey 153.60 76 122 9.90 15.89 38.38% -14.39%
San Jose 247.75 131 250 10.58 20.18 34.38% -15.59%
Toronto 141.75 68 138 9.59 19.47 33.01% -17.21%

Pretty good for a fourth line! A positive relative Corsi and over 50 percent in Corsi for percentage. This is quite the turnaround for Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas and company compared to last year when they were around 44-45 percent, right? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Take a look at who the players are that are playing the least volume in five on five scenarios and technically comprise the fourth line:

Name Est. Line TOI/G CF CA CF/20 CA/20 CF% CF Rel
OKPOSO, KYLE 1st 15.49 119 122 19.20 19.69 49.38% -0.74%
TAVARES, JOHN 1st 15.41 117 118 18.98 19.14 49.79% -0.09%
CONACHER, CORY 1st 13.89 94 111 16.92 19.98 45.85% -5.83%
KULEMIN, NIKOLAY 2nd 12.29 84 67 17.09 13.63 55.63% 7.53%
CIZIKAS, CASEY 2nd 11.91 68 80 14.27 16.79 45.95% -5.05%
MARTIN, MATT 2nd 11.05 60 71 13.58 16.07 45.80% -5.07%
NELSON, BROCK 3rd 10.91 84 63 19.24 14.43 57.14% 9.43%
STROME, RYAN 3rd 10.90 84 2 19.27 0.46 54.55% 6.16%
BAILEY, JOSH 3rd 10.60 62 51 16.72 13.75 54.87% 6.08%
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 4th 10.46 49 43 18.74 16.44 53.26% 3.98%
CLUTTERBUCK, CAL 4th 10.34 60 62 14.51 14.99 49.18% -0.82%
NIELSEN, FRANS 4th 10.27 67 68 16.31 16.56 49.63% -0.27%

Not exactly what fans would expect. Cizikas and Martin are playing more than half the roster in five on five scenarios and are doing so with very lackluster results. One could make the excuse that power play and penalty kill time should be factored in in which case Martin does fall to last on the team in minutes, but Cizikas still maintains more ice time than Bailey, Strome, Clutterbuck, Grabovski and obviously Martin. In addition to this, the first line employs Conacher who is doing quite horridly to start the season. Only nine first line players in this scenario have worse relative Corsi ratings than Conacher with most of those players that are doing worse in said statistic being on positive possession teams. The only player out of the nine with a lower Corsi for percentage is Matt read.

It's still early in the season and many people could have said all this with the eye test, but it's still worth noting that the coach is still up to his old tricks when it comes to ice time. The team is doing well for the time being, but having the three worst possession players averaging more minutes than prospects who are already doing better seems to be an asinine idea that could eventually haunt the team. This is particularly true when one of the poorly performing players is playing on the wing with the franchise player. With any luck, the staff will recognize the problems and correct them accordingly before they start to do any damage. If not, hopefully the organization makes a change.

The numbers were taken from http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/.

<em>Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.</em>