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10 Game Chunk #5: Playing Like a Playoff-Bound Team Would

Ten-game segment #5 began filling up way back on January 21st. Thanks to a week off, it didn't end until Super Bowl Sunday's Rangers game. This means some teams are already well into Chunk #6.

This was the best segment of the year for the Islanders, going 6-3-1. It was good enough to be tied for 4th best in the Eastern Conference. Posting the same record in chunks #6, 7 and 8 would put the Isles at 39-31-10 and 88 points, with a 50/50 shot at the playoffs if they split the last two games, and a 66% chance if they took both.

First, a look at the standings with each team, frozen at 50 games:

Star-divide

The Rangers have 71 points to lead the entire NHL. They've opened up a 5 point gap over the Bruins and Flyers. The Islanders find themselves with 49 points in 50 games, which puts them 12th in the East, 7 points behind Washington for the 8th spot. Their elimination number stands at 58. Any combination of points earned by the 8th place team and no earned by the Isles reduces that number.


Team W L OT PT Team W L OT PT

NYR 33-15- 6 71 DET 33-16- 1 67
BOS 32-16- 2 66 VAN 31-15- 4 66
FLA 24-15-11 59 SJS 29-15- 6 64
PHI 30-14- 6 66 STL 30-13- 7 67
PIT 29-17- 4 62 NSH 30-16- 4 64
OTT 27-17- 6 60 CHI 29-15- 6 64
NJD 28-19- 3 59 LAK 24-16-10 58
WSH 26-20- 4 56 MIN 24-19- 7 55
----------------------------------
TOR 25-19- 6 56 COL 26-22- 2 54
WPG 22-22- 6 50 DAL 26-22- 2 54
TBL 22-23- 5 49 CGY 23-21- 6 52
NYI 21-22- 7 49 PHX 22-20- 8 52
BUF 21-24- 5 47 ANA 19-24- 7 45
MTL 19-22- 9 47 EDM 19-26- 5 43
CAR 17-24- 9 43 CBJ 13-31- 6 32

Records for Games 41 - 50


Team W L OT PT Team W L OT PT

PIT 8- 2- 0 16 NSH 9- 1- 0 18
OTT 7- 2- 1 15 DET 8- 2- 0 16
PHI 6- 2- 2 14 STL 7- 1- 2 16
NJD 6- 3- 1 13 ANA 7- 2- 1 15
NYI 6- 3- 1 13 VAN 7- 2- 1 15
NYR 6- 3- 1 13 LAK 5- 2- 3 13
WSH 5- 3- 2 12 CHI 5- 3- 2 12
TBL 5- 3- 2 12 SJS 5- 4- 1 11
TOR 5- 4- 1 11 CGY 5- 4- 1 11
CAR 4- 3- 3 10 COL 5- 4- 1 11
FLA 4- 3- 3 10 PHX 3- 3- 4 10
MTL 4- 4- 2 10 EDM 3- 5- 2 8
BOS 4- 5- 1 9 MIN 3- 6- 1 7
WPG 3- 6- 1 7 DAL 3- 6- 1 7
BUF 3- 6- 1 7 CBJ 2- 7- 1 5

Scoring

The Isles are now credited with 122 goals (includes shootout point), which is 16 off the league average of 138. Boston still leads, with 176 scored, but Philadelphia has narrowed the gap, in second with 167.

In this segment, Nashville and Pittsburgh led the way with 34 goals each. The Islanders had 26. The league average was 25. Edmonton had only 15, with Buffalo at 16 and Winnipeg at 17 to bring up the rear.

Defense

The Isles are debited with 146 goals against (including shootout points), which is 10 over the league average of 136, and good for 24th in the league, and in spitting distance of the top 20. The Rangers and St. Louis have allowed only 102 goals each. The Lightning have allowed 170 and Columbus 169 at the back of the pack.

In the last segment, the Isles allowed only 20 goals, 5 below the league average. St. Louis allowed only 13 and Nashville 15 to lead the way. Columbus let in 39 and Minnesota 36 at the bottom.

Differential

The Islanders improved to -24 on the season, 26th best in the league. Boston continues to lead at +66. Detroit is in second with +43. Not suprisingly, Columbus trails everyone at -54. Next closest is Carolina at -30.

In the last chunk, the Isles were +6, tied for 6th best in the league. Nashville was +10. Ottawa and Anaheim were +13. On the flip side, Columbus was -19 and Buffalo -15.

Penalty Minutes

Through 50 games, the Islanders accumulated 456 PIM, 3rd fewest in the league behind Phoenix (397) and Detroit (422). The league average is 575. Boston was the most penalized team (772) followed closely by Philadelphia (769).

In the last segment, the Islanders' 62 PIM was more than only Toronto (42, go figure), Nashville (55), and Phoenix (61). St. Louis racked up 189 minutes for the most, followed by Columbus at 164). The league average was 103.

Power Play

Through 50 games, only Vancovuer (23.0%), Nashville (22.5%), Edmonton (21.6%) and Philadelphia (20.9%) converted a higher percentage of their power play opportunities than the Islanders (31/155 20.0%). The league average was 17.4%. Montreal (12.5%) and Phoenix (12.8%) were the worst.

The Islanders have given up the league average in SHGA at 4. Boston is the only team to not have one against, while the Devils have given up 13.

In terms of power play opportunities, The Islanders are tied with Colorado for 28th with 155 chances. At 149 chances, only Phoenix has had fewer. Philadelphia has had 220 advantages to lead the NHL. The LA Kings are next with 196. The league average is 174.

In this chunk, the Islanders were 5/26 19.2%, slightly better than the league average of 18.1%. Nashville led the way at 11/33 33.3% followed by Carolina at 7/24 29.2%. The Rangers converted on only 1 of 28 chances (3.6%), easily the worst in the league this stretch. Phoenix is the only other team in single digits at 2/23 8.7%.

The Islanders gave up 1 SHGA, just about the league average. Winnipeg gave up 5 on 29 PP opportunities, scoring only 4 for themselves. Tampa Bay gave up 3. 12 teams did not give up any.

The Isles 26 PP opportunities was 3 below the league average of 29. Philadelphia had 39 and LA had 38 chances. Phoenix, Edmonton and Buffalo had only 23 at the low end. Carolina and Columbus had only 24 each.

Penalty Kill

Through 50 games, the Islanders had killed off 127/150 84.7% of their penalties, good enough for 8th best in the NHL. Montreal (172/192 89.6%) and New Jersey (155/173 89.6%) led the way. Toronto (124/165 75.2%) and Columbus (127/167 76.0%) were on the bottom.

San Jose was shorthanded the least at only 140 times. Only them and Phoenix (146) were shorthanded less than the Islanders 150. Philadelphia has been shorthanded 205 times and Ottawa 199 for tops in the league.

The Islanders have scored 3 shorthanded goals. The league average is 4. Calgary has no shorties and New Jersey 11 at the ends of the spectrum.

For this chunk, the Islanders killed off 21 of 23 penalties, 91.3%, which was 5th best in the league. Toronto killed off all 11 (not a typo) of their shorthanded sessions to lead. Montreal, apparently taking all the penalties in Canada, killed off 35/37 (94.6%) for second. 9 teams were below 80% on the kill, with Buffalo at the bottom (23/31 74.2%).

Dallas and Los Angeles were down a man (or more) 38 times each, and Montreal and Washignton 37 times each for the most times short. The afformentioned near-angelic Maple Leafs were short only 11 times, 7 better than the next purest team, Phoenix, with 18. In chunk number 4 (games 31-40) the Leafs were shorthanded 38 times. In contrast, the Islanders were shorthanded the least in that segment at 22 times, which up until this batch was the least ever for any team in any segment this season.

New Jersey led this chunk with 3 shorties scored. The Islanders and Ducks had 2 each. 11 teams scored 1 each and 16 teams scored none.

Special Teams Index

STI combines the PP and PK stats (including shorties for and against). In short, divide the number of PP goals for - SHGA and divide by PP opportunites. Then add that number to the PK results (subtract SHGF from PPGA). The league average will be 100%.

The Islanders continued their climb towards the top, finsihing 5th at 104.1%, up from 102.1% at game 40 and 97/1% at game 30. Vancouver (109.2%) and Boston (107.4%) lead the way. Nashville is 3rd at 106.8% and Pittsburgh 4th at 105.8%. On the other side, Tampa Bay was laat at 89.3%, just behind Columbus at 90.3%.

Last segment, the Islanders posted a then NHL season high 124.6%. This time around, they only managed a 115.4%, good for 3rd. Nashville set the new mark at 125.3%. There were 6 teams below 90%, with Washington's 83.1% and Columbus' 83.3% at the bottom. The worst so far this season was San Jose in games 21-30 at 73.6%.

Hitting

The average NHL team has thrown 1,114 hits through 50 games. Matt Martin had 227 to lead the league. The Islanders are now an above average hitting team with 1,149. The Rangers have been credited with 1,456 to lead the league, followed by the Kings with 1,371 and Dallas at 1,365. Nashville and Buffalo have each only been credited with 899.

For this chunk, the Rangers had 322 hits. Toronto had 293 hits (yet only 11 penalties, hmmmm) for second place. Pittsburgh had 292 in this segment. The Islanders had 262, above the league average of 242. In going 9-1-0 and +19 this segment, Nashville apparently forgot TEH GRITZ witrh only 186 hits registered, 10 fewer than Boston and Buffalo.

Timing

The All-Star break wreaked havoc on this chunk. Detroit played 10 games in only 18 days. Chicago, Nashville, Ottawa and Winnipeg had 19 days for 10 games. On the other side, Minnesota had 31 days to get 10 games in, while Vancouver, St. Louis and Florida had 29 days. The Islanders got their 10 done in 24 days, which was the league average.

The Google spreadsheet with all the info is here, and has been updated with stats through 50 games for all 30 teams.

Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.

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Fun stuff

With all these interesting numbers to digest, I hate to even distract with this lament, but:

The afformentioned near-angelic Maple Leafs were short only 11 times, 7 better than the next purest team, Phoenix, with 18.
I mean really, now. Are they doing mind voodoo on the refs before games?

(Picturing Ron Wilson to the officials: “Hey, don’t know if you noticed, but our PK is still awful, so we’ve decided to stop taking penalties. Just FYI. Oh and would you hold my wallet during the game? There’s a thousand dollars in it.”)

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on Feb 5, 2012 11:43 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

This sounds like a job for

those guys at Freakonomics. Maybe one day when I feel really geeky, I’ll do a dive through the game results to see just how many times a team hasn’t been called for a penalty in a game.

A matrix of teams / PIM by officiating crew could be interesting, too.

Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.

by Torgo on Feb 6, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Great job

as always.

Nice to see us finally have a chunk in the black in goal differential. We’ve been pretty close to 0 most of the year, but that 11 thru 20 chunk where we went -20 really kills the season (and killed the season in so many ways).

Posting the same record in chunks #6, 7 and 8 would put the Isles at 39-31-10 and 88 points, with a 50/50 shot at the playoffs if they split the last two games, and a 66% chance if they took both.

That’s the problem in a nutshell.

by afrosupreme on Feb 6, 2012 10:23 AM EST reply actions  

Nice job Torgo

The thing that jumps out at me is that the Islanders need a division change. When you have to play 6 games against 4 teams that rarely have sub-.500 stretches it’s tough to compete against the other 11 teams in the conference.

I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA

by JPinVA on Feb 6, 2012 11:33 AM EST reply actions  

I hate the Atlantic Division so much. SO MUCH.

It was cursed and horrible the first year it started.
I absolutely long for realignment.
Im so sad that the D conference will not come to pass next year, I cant even describe how bummed I am.

Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)

by TheMetalChick on Feb 6, 2012 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Nah

If you want to beat stronger opponents, you just need to get better.

Of course, if they move to Kansas City in 2015, you get your division change… maybe… I get the feeling Winnipeg will still be in the Southeast in 2015.

Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.

by Torgo on Feb 6, 2012 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

The Isles are not fucking moving to fucking Kansas fucking city. Enough with this already!

Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)

by TheMetalChick on Feb 7, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

It applies in so many ways

Payrolls, need to randomly dress goons … travel is the only nice thing about this division.

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on Feb 6, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

we are doing well but dropping further back

we have to hope the Jets can beat the Leafs and the Caps even though the Jets are ahead of us

while we take care of the Flyers and the Habs.

Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all

by Rickfansince76 on Feb 7, 2012 7:47 AM EST reply actions  


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Islanders Schedule

1979-80


May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.

The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.

1980-81


May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.

Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.

1981-82


May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.

A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.

1982-83


May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.

Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.


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