Bits: Islanders Return Ty Wishart to Bridgeport, Wallace Waived; Atlantic Life Daunting
by Dominik on Feb 22, 2012 12:51 PM EST
in Bits o' Islanders News
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PrintYour Islanders roster moves of the day are minor: Seldom-used winger Tim Wallace was placed on waivers and seldom deployed defenseman Ty Wishart was returned to Bridgeport.
(If I'm reading things right, Wishart's loan does not require waivers because his recall -- which wasn't on emergency basis -- was not long enough. But that's for later CBA-diving.)
This likely means one thing and possibly more: A now-caged Travis Hamonic is more likely to come off IR for Friday, which would mean the Islanders will still have extra defensemen at the NHL level. [Update: One of them, Newsday's Arthur Staple suggests the Islanders may call up a forward for Friday's game.]
Staple also reported Mike Mottau was close to ready the other day, while Aaron Ness' impressive audition continues for now. If there are feelers for any of the Islanders' veteran pending UFA defensemen like Mark Eaton or Milan Jurcina, the Isles will have coverage.
Wallace hadn't played since Feb. 12, with Marty Reasoner's return from IR bumping him. Wishart, well he logged 17:16 in St. Louis and that was that. The Isles don't appear compelled to use him, but given this paper move we'll see how things evolve if any vets are sold or hurt. [Update: Indeed, Michael Fornabaio reports signs of injury recovery progress for guys in Bridgeport, as well as a looming PTO likely to become an AHL deal.]
On to the bits:
With last night's goal, Frans Nielsen now has as many goals (13) as Kyle Okposo and just two fewer than Michael Grabner. That's a problem.
With last night's assist on Nielsen's goal, P.A. Parenteau now has 42 assists, one fewer than Pavel Datsyuk. That's not a problem ... for Parenteau. I get why his agent is tempting him to chase the summer money.
With last night's results, the Islanders' four Atlantic Division foes have the four top point totals in the Eastern Conference. Seriously, a familiar problem.
Of course, only two of those Atlantic teams have higher point totals than the Central's top four teams.
Still, with about a quarter of the season left to go, the Islanders have 10 of their final 22 games against Atlantic opponents. Even tossing schedule rhythm concerns aside -- the Isles have a five-game road trip, and four sets of Saturday/Sunday back-to-backs to go -- that's an imposing schedule that you would think demands a calculating look at their chances. Sell, sell, sell.
Other divisional notes: The Islanders have a winning record against every Southeast team except Florida (0-3). They have a winning record against no Northeastern team except Buffalo (2-1-1 after last night's regulation loss). Their only winning record in the Atlantic is against ... Philadelphia? (also 2-1-1). Carolina and Buffalo are the only Eastern teams with whom the season series are finished, however.
The lone Western Conference opponent still on the docket? The season finale in Columbus April 7. No doubt all NHL eyes will be on that riveting affair.
Islanders/NHL Reading
- John Tavares on self-improvement and realistic expectations via AOL/Sporting News. Good quotes from Mark Streit there too.
- The Islanders official site highlights David Ullstrom, Anders Nilsson, Andrey Pedan in their prospect roundup.
- And they talk about those hot Sound Tigers.
- Die by the Blade recaps last night from the Buffalo perspective, goes through the painful process of explaining how yes, technically the playoffs aren't out of the question but
- Jeremy Roenick says the Islanders are a little to young to drop the hammer in meaningful games. Or something like that. [FanShot here]
- The Sharks are supposedly in on the Rick Nash sweepstakes. Last night they got spanked by Nash and Jeff Carter.
- Friedman's 30 Thoughts, always a good read.
- The best and worst NHL teams under the post-lockout CBA.
- From the Times, the rare story of a Jewish athlete repping the German colors.
- BU Stuff: Nicastro charged with two counts of rape; Jack Parker says the program is transparent.
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30 thoughts link is going to NHL.com's story on Nash
Why yes, I do have a man crush on Bailey and Martin, and no, I don't care what you think about it
BREAKING: NINO'S DEVELOPMENT IS BEING HELD BACK
By his sister:
nino niederreiter @thelnino25
Hope my sister is almost done shopping at the forever 21 store #feellikeacreeperjustsittinghereinachair lol
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Feb 22, 2012 1:03 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
COUNTERPOINT: NINO IS PROGRESSING RIGHT ON SCHEDULE
nino niederreiter @thelnino25
Thank god she is done ….. Only took her what…. 40min #Jesus
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
Ha!
Hockey player tweets always crack me up. They seem more normal then other athletes.
Being born in New York and rooting for the Islanders, Jets, and Mets. Yeah, I know.
Twitter: cmauceri524
by CharlieIsles on Feb 22, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
If Nino was shopping with Grabs's sister
they’d be in and out of the store in 5 minutes.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 22, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
If Nino at his age can be labeled a creeper
I better never set foot in a mall again.
Actually, that sounds like a fine idea.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 22, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
We also better stay away from:
Beaches
County fairs
Parks
Islander home games
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 22, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
I put my binoculars away during TV timeouts.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Especially matinee games
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
If they'd put him out with his 1st or 2nd line Sister, he'd be just fine!
But they keep sending him out there with his 4th line sister. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT HIM TO DO? SCORE? That’s gross!
by Les Beaver on Feb 22, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
The Times article about Evan Kaufmann is quite interesting
thanks for posting
"I didn't come out of a cereal box." --Bob Dylan
This is what I found for reason Wish doesn't have to clear waivers
“If a player cleared waivers and is subsequently recalled during the same year, he does not have to clear waivers again unless he has either played 10 or more NHL games or has spent 30 or more days on an NHL roster since last clearing. Otherwise, he will have to re-clear waivers to be assigned.”
Ahhhhh there you go
They could get away with it cause he cleared waivers once already.
No Sleep 'til....We Find Some Secondary Scoring
Watch they'll recall him again in a few days.
Theoretically, they can juggle him until the end of the season.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 22, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
one of my favorite things about LHH (besides Frans worship)
Is the CBA translations. Everyone here does a great job at figuring out a highly complicated document.
And just think, we all get a new one to learn this summer!
Definitely a poster at Lighthouse Hockey until 2015, then maybe somewhere else.
by ArsenalLI on Feb 22, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Downside
I have to delete any comments I made about how the team is run by idiots who recall players that have to clear waivers if they get sent back down, and they then don’t play them. Just another day in my job as Armchair GM…
Success was survival and, kid, it still is
by IslesFanInNJ on Feb 22, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks
That’s the section I was thinking of — and Wishart was recalled nine days ago — but I didn’t open it to check for the random CBA exceptions that shove you three sections away to discover the Sunday afternoon 48 hours after the last full moon loophole.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Whoops
Fixing that…
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Grabs & KO
With last night’s goal, Frans Nielsen now has as many goals (13) as Kyle Okposo and just two fewer than Michael Grabner. That’s a problem.
I think that pretty much sums up our secondary scoring problem this year. We need Grabs to be at least a 25 goal guy (preferably 30+) and KO to have at least 20. It’s hard to say how much of their under performance this year is on them and how much is on the team’s overall inability to move the puck.
Grabner in particular seems to be in a funk. Last season even when he wasn’t potting break away goals at a record pace he was able to get some nice wrist shots off in the slot for goals. We haven’t seen much of anything from him this year offensively. It doesn’t seem like the talent went away but he hasn’t looked right since he had that groin injury.
Definitely a poster at Lighthouse Hockey until 2015, then maybe somewhere else.
As always, it's complicated
Grabner’s pace at the end of last season virtually assured a small bounce back down to earth. And to be fair, with 22 games left to go he could still easily end up with 20, even 25 goals if he gets on a run.
I think his overall game has been good, Okposo has been more of an uncertainty from game to game, and of course the blueline and bottom six’s inability to contribute much offense at all has really hurt.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Also remember
Kyle Okposo didn’t score a goal for the first two months of the season. No way this team can compete if one of their top 6 players goes on such a lengthy funk. I mean, who does he think he is, Scott Gomez?
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 22, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If only Okposo could face the Islanders
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 22, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
so he can make our goalies look good
dinging shot after shot off post after post?
These comments crawl up from the depths of the deepest Chasm of Saar
"Look coach, my positioning is perfect every time!"
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
You think so?
I think his overall game has been good,
He’s actually my biggest disappointment this season, with Streit a close second. (I’m not including the Devil Dogs and Marty Reasoner-types, as I got from them what I expected. That is to say, not much.)
Obviously, the drop in offensive production is significant (projecting out at his current pace he’s looking at 19 goals, almost half of what he got last year). While I did not think last year’s pace was sustainable and expected some dropoff, I was thinking maybe to the mid- or upper-20’s (considering the amount of breakaways I expected him to continue to get). His current 10 assists (for a total of 25 points at this time), are also, shall we say, less than ideal. He’s not a good puck handler, and I’ve noticed this year he’s had difficulty accepting passes cleanly.
By your mention of his “overall game”, I assume you mean his defensive/special teams contributions. Certainly his speed (or the “threat” of it) is disruptive to the other team’s point men when the Isles are on the PK. He’s often shown decent instincts in picking off passes along the blue line, and defesnive awareness in keeping with his man. However, I don’t see him as a “tough” player to play against — and by “tough” I don’t mean a big checker/pugilist a la Matt Martin, but willing to “battle for pucks” in a hockey sense. I understand hitting is not his game, but too many times with the puck along the boards I see him waive his stick at it rather than use his body, or do a “fly-by” on the forecheck without putting any actual pressure on the puck carrier to make a decision.
So while by no means do I think Grabner is a “bad” player, I wouldn’t say that his “overall game has been good.” As I said, overall (meaning all in offense, defense special teams) I think he’s been a disappointment versus expectations (and salary). But obviously this is only my “eyeball opinion” (whatever that’s worth) because I ONLY WATCH THE GAMES1!!?!!
by Hey Hanrahan on Feb 22, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
I pretty much agree
Grabner’s speed often makes up for his lack of muscle on defense, but I don’t think of him as close to Nielsen defensively. When he’s skating well and very noticeable, he is an excellent player to have (even when he’s not scoring goals), but when he’s invisible (seems at least half the games this season), he seems average defensively and well below average attacking, because when he doesn’t utilize his speed attacking, he’s also being outmuscled along the boards and it kills Isles’ momentum.
And when he is buzzing offensively, he’s usually buzzing defensively too. In this way, his game seems more extreme (polarized) than most Isles forwards.
Of course, I think if Isles had the luxury of using him on the 3rd line (where a lot of us think he would fit best) in a checking-and-countering role, he wouldn’t have as many games where he’s nearly invisible.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Grabner
the difference between our being a real .500 team (equal goals scores/goals against)
can more or less be accounted for by the 10-20 additional goals I thought he would have
he’s been the biggest problem
Streit has also been disappointing to be sure in his own way
Uh, no.
We’re what -36 in goal differential now? So if by some logic you think we should’ve expected 20 goals more from him this year ALREADY (which means you’d have him on pace for something like over 40 goals….yikes!), we’d still be -16. And that’s assuming Grabner’s additional goals wouldn’t have resulted in less goals from other players.
That’s going way too far.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 22, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No, he had 34 last year.
You can’t throw out half the year to get the trend you want.
Just because you way overrated the guy doesn’t mean he’s the biggest problem. It means you overrated him.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 22, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
he was on a pace for 40 goals last year as a rookie
???
You can say he was on pace for 40 if you look at part of his season.
If you look at a different part of his season, he was on pace for less than half that.
After a season is over, “on pace” doesnt really make sense. He scored 34G, so that WAS his pace over the season.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 23, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Nitpicking
I agree 40 goals was a long shot. As I indicated above, I didn’t even expect him to pot 34 again. I would have been happy with 27-30.
But I think Cary’s real point, which remains, is: If Grabs pots just 10 more (or 8 or more or whatever) over the course of this season, wouldn’t it be fair to assume it may account for, I don’t know, 3 more wins (or more points via OTLs). Obviously, we can’t pin a number on it, but it seems logical to assume it would account for something.
Don’t get me wrong, the same could be said if Okposo, Bailey, etc. (the list is long) scored to their (perceived) ability. The point is that the difference between Grabner actual vs. expected scoring is the greatest.
by Hey Hanrahan on Feb 23, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I love how many definitions there are of .500 in NHL.
What a screwed up system for NHL!
1) Equal goals scored/goals against
2) Total number points at end of season = 82
3) Reg wins, reg losses, OT wins, OT losses, shootout wins, shootout losses method
4) Wins = losses (no matter how won/lost)
5) Wins = losses, but shootouts count as ties, so subtract Bettman Bonus Points.
6) The “I hate math, but I know my team ain’t .500” method.
The 3rd definition has a bunch of sub-methods too.
Did I miss any?
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
It's not all Grabner
Okposo hasn’t hit a stride at all. Bailey’s shooting percentage is down from 10.8 to 7.5, and he’s taking fewer shots. Rolston has been wifflecrap. The defense has gone from 24 goals to 13; Blake Comeau went from 24 to COZOing to Calgary.*
* And his 4-7-11, minus-4 in 40 games, while playing 16 minutes a night, aren’t exactly setting the Canadian heartland on fire. Imagine if they’d kept him and that’s all he was doing here! People would be calling for him to be scratched, waived, and non-tendered.
Overall the team is actually taking slightly more shots this year than last (29.5 vs. 29.0) but their shooting percentage has dove from 9.3 to 7.6. That’s where your secondary scoring has gone.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
by mikb on Feb 22, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Dom's basically mentioning that while Grabner's scoring is certainly disappointing
his defensive play has been unaffected. He’s faced the toughest competition on the team this year and has by a good bit the best defensive numbers on the PK.
I expect Grabner to be a streaky scorer which might make his goal totals inconsistent. But as long as he provides excellent defense, he’s a pretty good asset, and he’s making only 1 million dollars this year.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 22, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
PK
Your point is well taken with respect to he PK. He is clearly a superior PK’er, which of course is valuable. That said, I think that to some degree defending a PK and defending ES are different skills. The “board battling” type skill is much less necessary for the man defending up high on the PK, whose primary job is to take away lanes and pressure the point men (other players further down low do more of the board battling). Whereas at ES, this is less the case and all players need to chip in to dig out pucks. Again, I’m not looking for him to turn into Kyle Okposo, just not concede possession so easily.
And as far as the $, well, technically you are correct (due to the escalating nature of his contract), but his cap hit is $3M (which is how I personnally view him from a financiall perspective). Out of curiousity, if he neither progresses not regresses, will he be overpaid/underpaid/fairly paid in years 4 and 5 of his deal?
by Hey Hanrahan on Feb 22, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
His value is probably around 2-3M
so yes he’d be overpaid at the end of the deal.
I ignore the cap hit since we have a cap floor issue, not a cap ceiling one, so its irrelevant.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Understood.
But that’s why I look at the avg. yearly contract value ($3M) as the right metric to compare his play to. He is intentionally underpaid now and intentionally (likely) overpaid later.
Even still, you seem to think his current production is within the realm for that $3M, which is not unreasonable.
by Hey Hanrahan on Feb 22, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe if he could ever convert on a fucking breakaway he’d be less streaky.
JFC, he’s got to be the worst breakaway man in NHL history.
=d
Claude LaPointe
says, “merci”
(although based on number of breakaways, it’s probably still Grabner. I still like him, but man he’s got to nail those).
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
Grabner should just train all summer with Nielsen.
We need him to develop an Austrian Backhand of Judgment (and Clever Twitter Quips).
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
Can we call it the "Bachhand of Judgement"?
Nassau Coliseum ice is forged from Long Island's tears.
by GreekIsles83 on Feb 22, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I think he has the skills, but not the composure.
He has a good enough wrist shot for that to be a threat. He’s pretty quick laterally. I think he needs to try a quick wrist shot more. Then he can fake the wrister and get the goalie to bite. Just a little overcommitting to a possible shot and Grabner can get around him. (No one should be better at skating around a goalie.)
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
I think he doesnt yet have the hands to catch up with his feet
how many times does he over-skate a puck on what would have been an odd man rush?
Get him practicing his stick-handling and get those hands to be as quick as those feet and he could be deadly
They call it the Mausoleum, but they should call it the Insane Asylum, because that is what its like being an Islanders fan. Even so, I bleed blue and orange and always will. GO ISLANDERS!!!
by Jtpdolphins2009 on Feb 22, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
Makes you wonder why they don’t separate him at every practice, and say, “Hey Grabs, why don’t you forget about the breakouts and just go down to the other end with DP (or Al) and just do shootouts. Come up with a few go-to moves. Here’s a book by Pavel Datsyuk. And Special Instructor Nielsen will be down there shortly to assist you.”
I mean, they probably have, but practice makes perfect!
by Hey Hanrahan on Feb 22, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Datsyuk's book on breakaways would be just as useless as Bossy trying to coach.
There was a good thread a couple weeks back. Some great lines.
But point taken. With Grabner’s abilities, it seems he should overcome it at some point and score close to the league average on breakaways. (30% is it?)
But if it’s 30%, people will still be shaking their heads when he misses 7 out of 10 times. (Just as people will shake their head every time KO hits the post, even if his % is league average next season.)
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with the weaknesses you mention
The most plausible theory I’ve seen recently is that the finishing troubles have gotten to his head, and I can buy that. I also think his number of chances still is a better sign than not getting chances at all (which befalls so many of his teammates).
Certainly he’s not a big puck battler on the boards or intimidating presence — this is why I don’t want him hitting though, Hemsky-ing his body when it’s not his strength. And teams have probably adjusted to his longball threat to some extent. I also notice those pass reception troubles (though I can’t help but notice how many passes are bouncing or in his skates because the passer didn’t lead him).
Those are issues keeping him from becoming a better player, things that the Isles probably thought would all improve when they anted up for a long deal. But all told yes, I still think his overall game has been good and helpful to Nielsen. He’s a consistently disruptive presence. Could be better and hope the potential to be consistently better is there, but I can’t help thinking if he had 5 more goals the lens on him would be different.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
For the record, I'm not sure the finishing troubles aren't simply part of who he is.
He’s always had a Shooting % around 11-12% in the minors, unlike last year’s 14-15%, which seems odd for a guy with so many breakaways. Which meant either:
1. The breakaways and the use of his speed he’s shown as an Isle didn’t come till last year; or
2. He’s always gotten lots of breakaways but just has always been somewhat lousy at finishing.
I think 2 seems more likely at this point.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
I believe its point #2
But Grabner is still young. Whats important to me is that he gets the chances. As long as he keeps getting breakaways it means he is working and fulfilling a role. His hands will eventually catch up with his feet with some more experience.
Plus the threat of a breakaway can be just as effective from a defensive stand point.
Nassau Coliseum ice is forged from Long Island's tears.
by GreekIsles83 on Feb 22, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Plus the threat of a breakaway can be just as effective from a defensive stand point.
It’s more effective with a Gaborik on the ice.
But yeah, defensemen don’t like the coach to see them giving up breakaways, even if it’s to Claude Lapointe.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Well the latter is a good deal of why he's great defensively
A breakaway threat:
A. Causes opponents to be unable to be as carefree with the puck from the point and less willing to take closely covered shots.
B. Causes breakaways which are periods where you can score and OPPONENTS CANNOT SCORE – and on a PK, that’s especially useful (plus it provides times for changing and makes an opponent have to re-enter the zone)
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
And also for 'B'
It has the potential of drawing a penalty. (And the resulting power play is safer defensively, assuming scoring is lower 4-on-5 than 5-on-5.)
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
Now imagine if he converted at a higher percentage, not only does it mean better possesion numbers, but wins.
I wonder what his breakaway conversion rate is compared to the general NHL conversion average.
Nassau Coliseum ice is forged from Long Island's tears.
by GreekIsles83 on Feb 22, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Also means we have Pavel Bure II on our hands
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Isn’t a bigger issue that he’s only generating 2.2 shots/game this year as opposed to 3 last year? Even at his current lower shooting % he’d be at 20 goals already if he was still getting 3 shots/game.
His overall chances are down, and I think that includes breakaways. I know there isn’t a way of knowing this, but I feel like he had a lot more breakaways last year.
by afrosupreme on Feb 22, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
No way of knowing about breakaways
But you’re correct that shots/game is down and that it’s a bigger issue, though it’s less noticable.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Would this be attributed to the poor D?
Could this be the reason for Grabner’s lower shot total?
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
Its part of it.....
but the question is this: Is our D really that much worse than last year? Our shots overall are UP! Not Down.
I mean last year we were rolling Hamonic-AMac, Radek-Hillen, Gervais-Jurcina most of the time, but lots of crappy D-Men came up.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
That's actually something I've been asking myself all year
Was it actually possible for our D to get worse after last year? And is the D this year worse? I don’t know what the proper metrics are to judge that.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
That's an excellent point.
I don’t even get why Grabner’s breakaway conversion is one of the hot topics during many broadcasts or after most games. In my opinion, that’s really not been the main issue with him this season. Your numbers say a lot and it actually gets more telling even if we look at what he did from January on last year (once he’d ajdusted, found his legs, been paired all the time with Nielsen, etc.). He averaged 4 shots per game from early January until the end of the season. He had so many games with 5, 6, even more shots last season. Lately, he hasn’t had 3 shots once in 11 games.
Clearly, FnGO was so tremendous last season in parts because the opposition hadn’t been aware of Grabner’s speed. And it was clear not only their scoring, but also their shot metrics are likely to regress a little. But I didn’t expect Grabner’s shots/game to be down from 4 to 2.2 and I don’t think it’s good enough what he (and his line) have done in that department this year. Not sure why exactly his numbers are so much down apart from the fact that the opposition’s adjusted, but I guess he can do better and maybe they should play him a little more.
by BenHasna on Feb 22, 2012 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I was wondering
since we were talking the other day about his minutes being cut, if that was having an effect. Last year when he got going in January he was getting 3.6/g in 14 minutes of ice time. The rest of the year he was over 17 min/g and around 4 shots/g.
This year he got 17 min/g in October, November, and December, but even in his best month (Nov), only average 2.8 shots/g. Since then he’s been getting a shade under 15 min/g.
His offensive zone starts have dropped a touch 44.3% to 42.5%, but sometimes I think that might even help him get shots, going so quickly from offense to defense.
As you say, you had to expect less this year, with teams being prepared for him. And we’ve all speculated that maybe that groin injury has taken a half step from him.
But there might be one more telling stat. Last year his Corsi RelQoC was 0.527. This year it’s 0.973. He’s facing competition roughly twice as hard as last year. Now I thought maybe this was because he got easier minutes before he was paired with Frans last year, but Frans has a similar trend 0.507 last year, 0.858 this year. It stands to reason that when you are facing that much better caliber player, you’re going to find shots harder to come by. Whether this is Capuano trying to get them out against the opposition’s top line as much as possible, or other teams getting better checkers out against him, I’m not sure (though I’d guess the former). Either way, all of this is combining to cut into his chances.
by afrosupreme on Feb 22, 2012 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
QualComp
I don’t think you can compare QualComp numbers like this. Maybe garik16 or someone has a better explanation, but even Gabe’s always telling to not make these comparisons accross years or, as some also do, accross teams. It is kind of an absolute value the way it’s calculated, not a relative one, and you’d think you could compare it, but as said as far as I know it doesn’t make too much sense.
That said, I do guess competition has been slightly tougher for him this year overall than last year. He played on the 3rd line mostly early in the season last year and surely didn’t face top lines there. This year he’s been on the 1st or 2nd line for all but maybe 5, 6 games. And Nielsen does play a lot of tough minutes of course. But that really was the case last year, too. Both this and last season it’s always been JT and Nielsen against the top-2 lines. And there, JT often plays against better checkers because that’s what the opposition wants – and Nielsen often plays against better offensive threats because that’s what the Isles want. But since Capuano took over they’ve really relied on the top-2 lines only to do the heavy work and overall I doubt the quality of competition has had a huge effect on Grabner’s play from the 2nd half of the last season to this one.
By the way, I also think QualComp for a Nielsen type line is always a bit too high, whereas it’s a bit too low for a JT type line. Nielsen as said plays against a lot of offensive threats – think the Sedins as an extreme, but of course guys like Brad Richards/Gaborik, Kovalchuk in the division – and those guys often have inflated Corsi numbers because they get a lot very favourable zone starts. They’re not actually as good as their Corsi (rel) might imply. On the other hand, JT plays a lot against the Malhotra types – think Callahan, Jordan Staal – and Corsi numbers of these guys often don’t quite tell the story because those guys get a lot of starts in the defensive zone and just by Corsi alone don’t seem to be very impressive players.
Of course, if we look at Vancouver or the Rangers we look at the context, take this stuff into account and value the work of the Malhotra types quite highly, but the metric calculating QualComp numbers of course can’t do that and just figures, ah JT played against Callahan (and the primary shutdown duo), Nielsen played against Gaborik (and 2nd pair D), well that was a tough night for Nielsen and just a half tough one for JT… In fact, it was probably the other way around because as much as Gaborik is a scoring threat it is probably easier to drive play against him as against Callahan and the #1 D pair.
That’s not saying QualComp is useless, though. Whether someone is among the top 6 or the bottom 6 in this stat on a certain team pretty much always should tell the right story. But I think the stat is not good enough to interpret every small gap or trend. And as said, if I watch the games of a certain team I’d like to make the adjustments mentioned just above and indeed would figure here JT’s played the toughest competition this season. Again, it’s still been very tough for Nielsen and Grabner, too, because they rarely get help from the bottom-6 when it comes to taking on top-2 lines.
Interesting
I didn’t realize that, but it makes sense I guess. So if I’m understanding you, it’s more of a number used to rank players on a single team, in a single year based upon how tough their minutes were?
Looking at it that way, it’s a little different story. In 10-11 Grabner ranked third, behind Moulson and JT (fourth if you include KO’s half season). But the spread was fairly small, .527-.582. This year he’s leading forwards at .979, with Frans next at .861, but then there is a dropoff to JT and PAP in the .620s.
Does this type of comparison make sense, or am I even more confused? Because this would seem to indicate there’s been a definite bump for him and Frans this season. Although you make good points that sometimes these numbers can be a little misleading.
Yes, Gabe’s mentioned it a few times, e.g. here in the comments:
Also, in general, first-order qualcomp is not really valid across multiple teams. It does a very good job rankings players within a given team.
There’s also a link in there to some very educated discussions on Vic’s site. Haven’t read it, though.
A specific problem of Corsi Rel Qual Comp (and QualComp) is that it isn’t a global stat. The basis for these stats are relative stats (relative +/- and relative Corsi of the opposition). So, if someone leads the league in Corsi Rel (as Okposo almost did last year, 3rd behind Pacioretty, Grabovski) it doesn’t mean he’s the absolute best player in the league. It just means the gap between him and his team mates is bigger than the gap beetwen any player in the league and his team mates. For Okposo that was the case because FnGO was awesome and Konopka and Bailey were terrible. Of course, when playing against the Isles last season down the stretch, minutes against Okposo were very tough indeed, but the CorsiRelQualComp suggested that it was the toughest minutes in the league and that probably wasn’t quite right. So, there’s something in there that screws up the absolute values of these QualComp metrics, but indeed does a decent job ranking the players within a team.
The gaps within a team I guess can be interpreted, but I doubt it makes sense to look at very small gaps.
In sum, it’s possible there’s been a little dump for Nielsen’s line this season, but I personally would doubt it. I think my point about the numbers being misleading at times is pretty strong. Let’s look at some matchups this season. Against the Rangers, JT’s almost exclusively played against Girardi/McDonagh, Grabner’s played against Del Zotto most of the time. The CorsiRelQualComp treats these three players as almost identically tough to play against because they have very similar Corsi Rel numbers. But there’s no question Girardi/McDonagh are the better players – they’re achieving the same Corsi numbers in vastly tougher circumstances (way tougher competition, clearly less favouarble zone starts). So, clearly if we think about it JT’s faced tougher competition against the Rangers than Grabner, but it won’t show up in the stat.
Against Carolina, a frequent matchup for JT was Gleason/Allen, for Grabner Harrison/Faulk. Here, CorsiRelQualComp will think Grabner played slightly tougher minutes because Harrison/Faulk are better in Corsi Rel than Gleason/Allen. But again, in reality Gleason/Allen are probably tougher to play against.
The numbers of players in other teams might not show the same pattern and for the Isles we won’t see this against every team and maybe even the reverse against some teams. But with the way the Isles are set up at this point, with such a clear #1 offensive threat and a distinct #1 defensive line, I think it’s a very common thing. And that’s why I’d be careful to interpret the gaps or even rankings within the top 6. The fact that the top 6 play much stronger competition than the bottom 6 is not in doubt, though.
It's probably less than it looks at first glance
although I’d argue that the forwards Grabner faces might be more important than the defensemen. Going against strong forwards that can get the puck into the Isles zone and keep it there is going to hurt his numbers more than defensemen who are good in their own end; i.e. players less like to make mistakes and lose the puck on offense (first-line forwards) make it harder for him to get chances.
Although your point is sound if you assume better defensemen would probably be less likely to allow him to get behind them going through the neutral zone.
I don’t know. There’s too much going on. Either way-he’s got to get more shots!
by afrosupreme on Feb 23, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
I suspect they're part of who he is
I just don’t know what his breakaway history is pre-Islanders.
There are some things I think he could do better on breakaways, and some things that I’m not sure are fixable or even his fault. Where that falls out in the averages is hard to tell.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Apart from second and third line scoring...
The Islanders have 13 goals total goals this season from the 11 defenseman who have suited up for the Isles this season.
That has to change also
by EastsideIslander on Feb 22, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
True
If they put up more goals I’ll start giving them a pass for their grammar.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Looks like
I’ve been banging my head against the wall too much this past week. I need some quiet-room time.
by EastsideIslander on Feb 22, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
That's a good idea
Because it feels real good when you stop
They miss Hamonic.
He franchise defenseman for grammar.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
don't forget to put a title on your pics
i forget exactly why though but someone will know
These comments crawl up from the depths of the deepest Chasm of Saar
That way people can click title and it will collapse the picture. This is especially helpful with GIFs while on mobile device so it doesn't slow down scrolling.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
And for people at work who'd prefer to collapse images
Not that any of you work.
I mean, not that any of you would goof off at work. That’s the ticket.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
No worries
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
The Dan Girardi quote is good too
"It’s kind of scary to think he(JT) can get that much better than where he is now."
Quite the compliment from a bitter rival.
No Sleep 'til....We Find Some Secondary Scoring
Easy to praise when you are on the top of the heap looking down
I have even noticed less hate from my Islander-Hater-Ranger-Fan-Friends. And these are people who bag the Islanders every chance they get.
by GreekIsles83 on Feb 22, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Tough to hate
a woeful team likes our…
And it’s long suffering fans.
Get out of the sticks, Charles, move to Queens!! Come, Get some respect a Professional team deserves!!
He's just fearing how good Tavares will look
as a Maple Leaf.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 22, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's a wonderful cherry...
on your pile of shit, sir.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
by JPinVA on Feb 22, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Surprised Roenick didn't tell Isles fans to kiss his ass
FYI, Columbus traded 29 year old Vermette, he of the amazing 27 point (-17) season and 3.75 million cap hit to Phoenix for 2012 2nd round, 2013 5th round, and Curtis McElhinney. A bit overpaid?
"Scorching the back of my neck with a revolving red light!"
I HATE JR
unfortunately he FAILED to point out all of those WILY VETERAN ACQUISITIONS that were supposed to provide the leadership and glue to put this team over the hump…
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Never a fan of JR, but....
….I have to say that blog of his was absolutley spot on. A quote from it: "These guys work hard, but they’re finding ways to lose when they’re in critical situations. It frustrates me and I’m sure it frustrates Islanders fans everywhere. It’s about time this young team matures and doesn’t accept getting blown out 6-0 when they’re in arm’s reach of a playoff spot. "
He’s actually very complimentary of the Isles in general, but I have to agree with him. Do they want to make the playoffs? That’s a great question, and one I was asking myself during these last two games. There was just no fire or desire whatsoever…that’s the most concerning about it all.
P.S. We need Haley Friday night.
I agreed with him on much as well
I don’t want to bag on these guys’ effort, they have actually looked more competitive than in years past. But I do feel the last few games have seen a drop off. Even taking into account missing our best goalie and defenseman, as well as the flu bug, this team shouldn’t be losing 6-0 to Ottawa at this time of year. If the playoffs were really the “at-all-costs” goal, we would see more of it left out on the ice, more passion.
This was the game that burst the bubble for me and said, it was a nice effort but its time to tool up for the next season. It was a great effort in the middle stanza, but the hole was too big at the start and the consistency needs to get better. (and losing the aging hangers on might help a bit next year).
Nassau Coliseum ice is forged from Long Island's tears.
by GreekIsles83 on Feb 22, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
The Isles seem to play flat on these afternoon home games. Maybe it just doesn't feel like game time because
its too early on they’re waking up in their own beds.
I feel like...
…Isles used to play much worse for matinee games 5-10 years ago than the past 3 years (or so), but I have no data to back it up.
I remember recently a few times when it seemed like Isles caught other team napping for matinee games.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
never said i didnt agree with JR here
i just prefaced my hate for him (it goes beyond his hockey talk, i met him in vegas)
he’s right in his blog, but he just blames youth when there is more veteran leadership this year than last year
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JR tends to speak in cliches and platitudes
That’s fine, there’s a place for those and certain truisms to them, especially from where a lot of players view and think the game. He’d never make a coach or GM because he tends to view the sport in this limited “wanted it more” kind of way, but that subjective bird’s eye view has a place.
He may have some points … or the Islanders — who have rarely “quit” in a game all season long — might be spent and exhausted after a season spent trying to catch up to get even to this point. They’re underskilled and undersized, and that’s a tough way to make it to this part of the year and come up with a meaningful run.
They’ve just skated on a knife’s edge all year long, and I sooner buy (and expected) that Hamonic’s injury would be a big domino more than I’d interpret a bad loss as “not wanting” the playoffs.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 22, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
as a carpenter (which i'm clearly not)
you can’t build anything solid without a good trusty HAMMER
(or a nail gun-but those are pricey)
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We need to draft Yakpov!
The we could have HAMMER and NAIL on the team :)
Nassau Coliseum ice is forged from Long Island's tears.
by GreekIsles83 on Feb 22, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Nail assisted by Hammer works.
It seems too obvious, though. Like Miro Satan playing for NJ or Gerbe Baby for the Philadelphia Cryers.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
I'm gonna go with this right here, man. How much do I owe you?
Success was survival and, kid, it still is
by IslesFanInNJ on Feb 22, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I was worried about this all along
It does feel like the Isles keep losing “big” games. I don’t think it’s for lack of trying*. I think the critical element is focus…on behalf of our opponent. When we catch teams 10-20 in the league on a bad night, we sneak up on them and beat them — usually clinging to a one-goal lead. When opponents arrive genuinely needing a gane and ready to play, we look like the 24th-best team in the league. As games get more important, we don’t fare as well. It’s another hump in development we have to get over, I think.
OK, not *everyone is trying their best all the time….wait, I dropped my pencil, have to walk across the room to go get it while everyone else runs across the street to cover that fire…
It's hard to tell
Because with all the variables in a season, it’s still hard to suss out what’s what for patterns like these. I mean, to me “as games get more important” can also mean “we’ve pushed our luck just to get to this point of importance, and the pendulum is due to rebound.”
I think about some of the efforts against Carolina, whom they swept (OT/SO-aided) and I think any of those could have easily been losses and any of them could have looked worse than the final score. Then you have the Philly games, they won one they deserved to win, lost won they deserved to maybe win, and won one they probably deserved to lose.
So not dismissing any of these possibilities as factors. But ultimately, they are a low-scoring team with a poor goal differential, and that means a knife’s edge margin of error most of the time, and to me that’s a more significant factor beyond any psychological or subjective variables (variables which I believe are very real, just hard to pinpoint like some such Heisenberg Principle).
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
But what fun is randomness!
Blame is much more fun. It’s true, so many of their wins lately have been a coin flip. A crazy 4 out of their last 5 wins by one goal. I do think it’s meaningful that they are, more often than not lately, getting blown out when they lose (before last night, three blowout losses preceeded by a not-so-close 4-2 loss). To me that suggests a team barely hanging on and not really able to compete when faced with tougher teams.
Let me try this line of logic. Everyone is talking about how great the Yankees starting pitching is this year compared to last year…but last year, starting pitching wasn’t the problem. It looked ugly and patchwork, but the results were fine. Hitting was actually the problem, timely hitting specifically … I feel the same about the Isles defense. It’s not good, but it’s not the problem. We are ranked 22nd in goals against this year, and within a stone’s throw of 15-16. The real problem is we are ranked 28th in goals and buried at the bottom. I love Grabs and KO, but probably, their lack of scoring is the real story of the year.
So again, when games get tight, we just can’t score. Any pro team can neutralize one opponent’s player when the chips are on the table. In other words, the low margin of error is squeezed into no margin of error when teams focus and play well against us.
Yeah, that offense is a big problem
I think lately no Hamonic and no Nabokov (or no head-standing Nabokov) have also been factors.
I’m not in the “Capuano’s not an NHL coach” camp but I do wonder if there are things he could try to maximize or spread the offense other than doing the same thing, essentially. I mean, you can’t get any O out of Pandolfo or Rolston at this point, so it goes back to the roster hand he’s dealt, but … well here I am back to chicken or egg.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 22, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Vermette's a nice player
Salary is hefty but swap him into the Isles lineup for Bailey or Reasoner right now and you have a much better forwards corps.
Columbus’ goal differential is the worst in the league (-56 overall!) and their goaltending is awful, so don’t hold his -17 against him.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
On an already good defensive team
Vermette should excel. He’ll fit right in with the Coyotes.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
Vermette is exacly what this team doesnt need.....
another soft, pass first, lefty shooting player down the middle. I wont hold his -17 against him, but ill hold his 27 points against him on a team where he’s obviously getting ample opportunity. I seriously doubt Antoine Vermette can work magic in between Matt Martin & Brian Rolston or Nino Niederreiter and Jay Pandolfo. Ill pass.
by LaFontaine16 on Feb 23, 2012 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
Everything I'm seeing
says Howson got roasted on that trade. Apparently by all advanced statistics, Vermette’s a beast (Nielsen-ish) and has suffered from poor shooting percentage luck (about 3-4% below his norms).
Neil Smith @bigdealneil94 @KeithLHHockey @craigjbutton hey keith GFY
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Quick check for flying pigs
I actually agree with something that Roenick says.
These guys work hard, but they’re finding ways to lose when they’re in critical situations….
I sure hope they can get back into the playoffs sometime soon.
Islanders fans have endured enough already.
"...I was here on Day 1 when Garth decided to do the rebuild, and I really want to see it through." -- Frans Nielsen
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Feb 22, 2012 3:12 PM EST reply actions
Interpretation
Newsday’s Arthur Staple reported Mike Mottau was close to ready the other day
Three of Mottau’s four limbs have regained full range of motion.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 3:15 PM EST reply actions 8 recs
Leave Mike Mottau's brain out of this!
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
We don't need little snow angels skating around.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
too late, that man already runs a training camp for snow angel hopefulls
These comments crawl up from the depths of the deepest Chasm of Saar
by bob l on Feb 22, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 9 recs
Here at The Mike Mottau School of Hockey, we focus strictly on the fundamentals:
1. Making snow angels in a futile attempt at defense.
2. Skating very, very slowly.
3. Opening the door to the bench.
4. Watching opponents fly by without wrenching your neck.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Feb 22, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
lol\
They call it the Mausoleum, but they should call it the Insane Asylum, because that is what its like being an Islanders fan. Even so, I bleed blue and orange and always will. GO ISLANDERS!!!
by Jtpdolphins2009 on Feb 22, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Had to post, just to get my signature into this thread.
Every time Mike Mottau plays defense, a snow angel gets its wings.
Ruutu signed for 4 years, average of $4.75M per
Link. Oh, for the love of Parenteau…
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Well Ruutu's got more NHL experience than Parenteau......
and that’s about it.
Crap.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
yeah, what a crazy contract
10.5%+ on-ice shooting in the last two seasons paying off pretty nicely…
I don't know him too well.
Better than Downie? Worse? Is this a gross overpayment, as it appears? He’s 29 years old (one month older than PAP).
Does either transaction (Downie or Ruutu) help us see what PAP may sign for? What he may be worth in a trade?
Seems his value is in the ballpark of these two, no?
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
It's a good sized overpay.
Ruutu is inferior to PAP in every way except that he’s got a longer track record…..in which he’s been inferior to PAP.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
They're different players
I was under the idea that Ruutu is a power forward, not a passer/playmaker like PAP
UVa Student. Twitter: @ericdavidmorris
by edavidmorris on Feb 22, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Ignoring the styles of play argument
Ruutu plays worse D, against worse opponents, and doesn’t provide as much offense.
(And the power forward designation is one that is really way overused at this point.)
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 22, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Even for playoff hockey?
Even when the refs are putting away the whistles, as they have been across the NHL in the past few weeks?
Not to say the Parenteau is physically weak. I’d rather have PAP on my playoff team than a physical middle-6 forward with a “good overall” game.
But if PAP was 10% stronger (or whatever would be a noticeable difference), he would be quite a bit more valuable for playoff hockey, with more ability to win puck battles.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying that strength isn't an asset
I’m saying that the term “power forward” is thrown around a ton in the NHL without a lot of consistency as to what it means and why it’s desirable.
There’s a large bit of evidence this is because the classic thought of power forward (a guy who hits and scores) has basically disappeared from the NHL this decade.
Copper & Blue has done some good work on this.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
This really changes the dynamic
I would still love the Isles to hold onto him, if the terms aren’t so onerous. However, Ruutu’s deal takes him off the market, and this increases PAP’s trade value to a team that was looking for an offensive boost.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
Yeah, I think I over reacted and spun what you said to make a point.
I do that sometimes.
Funny too, with the “hits and scores” definition. They didn’t record checks back 10-15 years ago, right?. Looking at Parenteau’s 1.3 (or so) hits-per-game, one might be tempted to call him a power forward. Not many bone-crunching hits, but he doesn’t shy away from a good opportunity to hit someone.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
I do that a lot
so no big deal.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
I feel good about the resolution.
Any good kittens we can go kick together? Or is that still not PC?
A little off topic, but I think next All-Star game Henrik and Daniel should square off (even if they’re on the same team). Someone should pass them the oversized carnival-style boxing gloves. First guy to fall to the ice buys dinner. Start a tradition that might actually draw some viewers for future AS games. (And don’t tell me about the sanctity of hockey. That game is already a gong show.)
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
how can you say Ruutu plays worse D against worse opponents?
These matchup arguments and assumptions are so dumb to me. You cant possibly watch enough Carolina Hurricane games to know this. And not every coach matches lines.
by LaFontaine16 on Feb 23, 2012 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
Holy ballfuck
That was literally my response when I read this. Wow.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
Yeah, I can't see this ending well
Either Snow overpays or lets the asset walk (that can’t happen…can it?). Hope he’s able to drive up the deadline price at this point.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Do you think?
I’m torn. Still RFA for RFA between pretend playoff teams, so I just wonder.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
True
I forget the RFA part. And the DET first was for a dman, so maybe there’s not much to read into there.
We're screwed
Ok Garth…time to trade him. Unless you give him what he was asking for, whIch I’m hoping was less than what Ruutu just got. But if it was less, Walsh is probably like, “Garth, did I say $4.5M per, sorry I meant $5.5M per. Freudian slip.”
by JPinNYC on Feb 22, 2012 7:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Funny story about Hamonic's absence
See the sudden decline/drop in shot% after a nice rise? That peak is the game before Hamonic gets injured.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 22, 2012 5:31 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Trying to make sense of these charts.
They appear accumulative, since it levels out over time. (Or were the first few games really that volatile? Can’t be.) Does the “0.5” stand for 0.5% or for 50%? And what does PDO mean?
Basically I understand that blue line represents shots for divided by shots against and green line is goals for divided by goals against.
Does that mean Isles just dipped back under taking as many shots as opponents this season? And they’re only scoring 42 goals to opponents’ 58 (ratio)? Isles goaltending save % has been decent, so that must mean team shooting % is awful.
If it is accumulative, that means this chart (as far as shots) is visually downplaying the Isles’ drop in shots For/Against since Hamonic injury, since it is harder to “push” the line up or down as the season goes on, right?
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
Yes the charts are cumulative.
.5 stands for 50%. yes this means that the Isles just dipped back to taking under 50% of shots while the team is on the ice at even strength (the charts are even strength only).
Ignore PDO for now – it’s a luck measuring stat but irrelevant to my point. It explains goal % being so low here because of team shooting percentage.
And correct, the chart “downplays” the drop in SF/SA because it’s cumulative, but I think the trend is pretty clear.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Yes, cumulative. Thanks.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
I'm happy to see Carolina overpay for Ruutu.
I’d rather not have Garth signing contracts like that (again). If Parenteau gets around that, I also would not complain (at least he’s putting up points to justify his payout).
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
P.A is the 21st leading scorer in the league right now. He is going to need to be paid. Will he need as much as
Ruutu? I don’t know. I hope not. Because he has only been an NHL regular for a couple of years I don’t think he’ll need to be paid as much as Ruutu but Ruutu’s contract is still useful for determining what P.A.‘s market value is. I think they’ll need to pay him at least $4million/yr. Then again maybe there is something I’m missing here. Anyway its more than I would have thought before the Ruutu signing.
It's likely that Carolina paid a premium to make sure he wouldn't hit the FA market
meaning that Ruuto would get less in Free Agency. But the Isles will have to pay that premium ALSO to sign him before the deadline, and it can be argued that the premium effect is minimal since you in Free agency will have multiple bidders driving up the price.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
What an interesting read this will be if he hits the market
I wonder if there is a “meh, AHLer, Tavares Effect” impression out there among GMs about him? Of course it only takes one (or two) to mitigate that.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Wishful thinking, but I like the optimism.
by JPinNYC on Feb 22, 2012 7:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Haha
Well at least curiosity if not optimism. I’d prefer Parenteau signed (at a hometown discount of course!) but I’d like a parallel universe where I could observe what his summer market demand is.
For example, I don’t know why there’s all this talk of LA or SJ needing to pick up Nash or Carter’s unruly contracts when they could add a rental offensive distributor like Parenteau who is much lower risk now and, if he performs, could be retained for a palatable number.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Maybe they'll read LHH comments about PAP and not know what...
… this means.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 22, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking the same thing today
But I think your also missing the Bergenheim Effect, in which a player cashes in quite simply because a team needs to reach the Cap Floor
"Mark D: the internet's foremost chronicler of Milburian insanity" - Pretty Good Idiot
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
If PA is looking for 4.5 mil a year he will be gone
I don’t care what we pay him not my money but Snow won’t give him that money and maybe shouldn’t but right now we need all the scoring we can get and until we can sign ufa’s I don’t think we have a choice but to overpay PA. Now if we trade him I hope it’s not for yet another pick. At some point weneed a pulse to comeback. Yeah I understand Wishart wasn’t a great pick up but maybe he can be a depth d man down the line. I just hope we can take another step and finally get in the playoffs next year hopefully no more scabs get signed.
Can't pay PAP an amount so close to JT and more than MM, IMO
"...I was here on Day 1 when Garth decided to do the rebuild, and I really want to see it through." -- Frans Nielsen
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Feb 22, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
But they can
I mean, they currently pay Rolston and DiPietro more than either of them, dont they?
In all fairness, neither Moulson nor JT were top 5 in anything. Im not saying he is better than either of them necessarily, Im saying that every year contracts are given out relative to other contracts given out.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 22, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
Tavares was definitely not in the top 25 of anything.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 22, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Isles cant fall into the trap of “everyone has to be paid less than JT” because JT has a very, very reasonable contract. If they do, they are basically ensuring that they cannot sign/keep their quality UFAs.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 22, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'm afraid I agree with you
I surmise he doesn’t want to disrupt the team pay structure he’s been able to create. I mean, in one hand, most would agree he doesn’t deserve that much more than Moulson. But does he deserve less than Ruutu? All depends on what pay scale you use…the Islanders or the rest of the league. If we’re not prepared to give him what he wants, we don’t move closer to the goal of the Stanley Cup playoffs…..UNLESS Garth is able to pull off a great trade. So….there are only two options for Garth right now….pay him what he wants, or trade him.
If he doesn’t do anything and wait until after the season to make some (what will be) feeble attempt to sign him, then he’s a bad GM and should be fired. Plain and simple.
assessment of our 12 starting forwards for next year
Tavares, Moulson, Nielsen, Nino, Martin keep
Okposo – hoping he’s been playing hurt this year
that’s 6 out of 12 I’d keep
Bailey – l wouldn’t resign him after this season
Pandolfo, Rolston – later devil dudes
Reasoner – find a taker for this guy (like now)
PAP – trade him now if he isn’t going to sign with us
Grabner – not convinced anymore – maybe Tallon was right
Ullstrom, Cizikas, Dibenedetto could all be ready
Maybe we get lucky on Lee or Nelson – pair them with Kabanov & Strome and we’ve got 12 forwards next year
And maybe this helps us have some perspective on what we could trade now for a big RH Defenseman who isn’t afraid to hit
such as Luke Schenn – Burke must be desperate by now….
Schenn..really? He's awful.
Well defensively. And we have plenty of those guys.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
From what Ive seen I dont think Schenn is awful defensively
But I cant say I watch all his games, either.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 23, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
He's never faced good competition.
So what he looks like is misleading.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Interesting.
You have to wonder though whether he is being sheltered or if the Leafs genuinely think they have better options.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 23, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
I don't really care what they think.
The fact is he’s performed poorly considering the weak competition.
(He’s been on 2nd pair seemingly the last two years, but Toronto gives its first pair basically ALL the tough competition, so the second pair faces weak competition and the third pair faces beyond crappy competition, like the Rangers do. That said, they’re correct to have their top pairing be Phaneuf/Gunnarsson)
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
My point was just asking, if the Leafs have better options to go up against the toughest competition, does that necessarily mean that Schenn would falter if he was in their positions.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 23, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
Well they do
and they also have one D pair they absolutely DO NOT TRUST.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
addendum
They might as well keep Bailey and Reasoner in this scenario. Realistically, the Isles have to be prepared to have several of those younger possible contributors struggle, and perhaps require some more time in the Bridge, or in college in Lee’s and Nelson’s cases. Then there are the inevitable injuries that the Isles seem to specialize in most of the time. A team normally carries 14 forwards on their active roster.
Tavares, Moulson, Nielsen, Martin, Nino, and Okposo, I don’t think anyone will disagree with, though for some their roles are up for debate. Bailey, as enigmatic as he’s been, is only 22 and still the best center the Isles have behind Tavs and Frans, so the Isles wil almost certainly re-sign him. Like it or not, he’s a useful NHL player now, and all the promising center prospects the Isles have developing are not likely to be as good or better by October. Reasoner will likely stay as the fourth center/mentoring figure for the same reason. Grabner’s got a long and team-friendly deal, and is one of the team’s best PK forwards, as well as a dangerous counterattacker.
That’s nine. Five slots left. PAP’s future is up in the air, but I would imagine Snow would love to add him to Teh Core, so that’s four openings. Ullstrom is likely to rejoin the club as well. This leaves DiBo, Cizikas, Kabanov, Petrov, and Strome to compete for the last three roster spaces, and Lee and Nelson still in school. If one or the other signed a pro deal, they’d still probably need a year to compete in the AHL before they could be considered likely to make the team and contribute.
Now, if you only kept six instead of nine, suddenly that’s eight slots to fill. You’ve only named seven forwards to fill all those spots, and that’s if the Isles sign both Lee and Nelson, and then all seven of them make the team! You’d have to get back forwards in exchange for Grabner, Reasoner, PAP, and Bailey to fill the roster, sign them on the open market come July 1, or draft a forward and immediately play them in the league at 18. Not that the Isles haven’t done this recently, but it’s always a dicey proposition.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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I don't like to yell and use all caps because I think it's unnecessary and rude (and snotty)
But Michael Grabner is absolutely NOT A PROBLEM FOR THIS TEAM. Did you truly expect him to score 30 again? Quite frankly, I didn’t, at least not this season. Last season, all he had to do was rely on his speed because no one knew who he was; he was our little secret. But between the Calder nomination and the growing support around him, the secret got out. He has to adjust his style of play, and I’m sure he will by next season.
Also, he’s one of the best defensive forwards on this team, and when your defensemen suck as much as ours do, you can never have too many defensive forwards. Jumping to this conclusion and claiming he IS a serious problem that this team has – especially when you consider the vast majority of problems that this team actually does have – is rather insane.
I know that this comment will come across as rather rude, but dear God, with all the things wrong with this team, Grabner is not one to blame. I would love if he converted more of his breakaways, but that doesn’t necessarily win us any more games.
by sayvillelax94 on Feb 23, 2012 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Grabner's not THE problem
but he’s definitely a problem. His production is down by about 40%, and this team needs as much secondary scoring as they can get.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
I agree it could definitely be better
But Garik pointed out somewhere that even if he did pot 20 more goals, our goal differential would still be at like -16.
by sayvillelax94 on Feb 23, 2012 8:10 AM EST up reply actions
You know what would be great?
If Okposo, Bailey, Rolston, Reasoner, and Nino could’ve scored maybe 3 – 5 more goals each.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 23, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
Okposo’s on pace for 18 goals, which is only one shy of his career highest, but anything below 20 goals to me is a disappointment for him.
Bailey’s had terrible linemates all season, although yeah, he should still have more than….6 goals Jesus Christ.
Rolston is the epitome of terrible, he wouldn’t have more goals if he was paired with JT all season.
Reasoner, who the fuck knows.
Nino’s a rookie playing with Jay Pandolfo, so I’m going to give him a pass for the most part.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 23, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
6 goals isn't bad...
…for a 3rd line center with one winger who is “the epitome of terrible.”
Again I say, give Bailey a full year with Ullstrom instead of Rolston and watch Bailey’s point total shoot up.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 23, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
I think 2012-2013 is do or die time for Josh, and hopefully he has the consistent linemates (Ullstrom-Martin?) to put together a better season.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 23, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You want to move on from Grabner?
I don’t know what to say.
by afrosupreme on Feb 23, 2012 7:54 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Bailey
has a two year deal anyway. He’s here next season at 1.05 mil. Then RFA again.
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Fun with stats!
Well, GVT anyhow. According to hockeyprospectus’ all in one stat, guess who the least valuable forward in the NHL is this year? And for a bonus guess who is #2?
If you want to spoil yourselves, see here: http://hockeyprospectus.com/sortable/
Note, This list was updated before Monday’s games, so it’s slightly out of date…but the point is made.
*Note2: This doesn’t mean that the player I’m mentioning in this comment who’s still on the Isles is always going to be that bad. Just interesting.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
4 Isles are WAY ahead of the rest of Isles on this list.
after 4th at #59, the next Islander is around #160.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 23, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
Gee I wonder which Islanders.
(I wouldnt count the goalies, so let’s make it 3. GVT way overvalues Goalies)
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
lol
I’d trade DP for Mason
"Mark D: the internet's foremost chronicler of Milburian insanity" - Pretty Good Idiot
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
You do remember that Roloson is half a dozen years older than Nabokov, right?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 23, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Well if you do remember that, then Im not sure what point youre trying to make. Who is offering Nabokov anything like a 6y deal?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 23, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
My point is goalie’s can fall off fast. They don’t need to be over 40. Nabokov is already very old by NHL standards.
by afrosupreme on Feb 23, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Thats why a year or two makes much more sense, as opposed to 3-4-5 years.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 23, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Two years seems to be the debatable line here.
Just about every one of us seems to think a one-year deal for reasonable money is a good idea.
Two years is extra risky, I think, because there is a decent chance Nabby’s wheels fall off the second year and both Nabby and Rick are taking up salary while not contributing much.
But personally I’d take a gamble on 2 years, up to $6 million total. I think Nabby has a good chance of providing 2 more solid seasons. (And the 2nd season he may only need to play 30 games if Poulin or Nilsson can manage 50.)
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 23, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Score one for GVT
Nino has been terrible this year. Can’t really blame him since it’s not his fault he was put where he clearly doesn’t belong.
=d
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
