Why losing PAP wouldn't hurt as much as you think
by OzzyFan on Feb 16, 2012 3:00 AM EST
Email
PrintYes, losing a top 6 playmaking forward would hurt, but not nearly as much as one would think. Yes, I think PA is a solid top 6 forward right now, but not nearly as good as his numbers suggest for multiple reasons and his void can be filled out more then people would think in the immediate future:
PAP isn't as good as his numbers this year suggest because:
-It's his contract year. Does anyone really think PAP will play as hard and as good as he has this year for the length of his next contract? Not a chance, partially due to aging and partially for other obvious reasons.
-PAP is playing on the 5th best PP in the NHL. Obviously getting ample PP time next to JT/Moulson/Streit/(and even Nielsen to an extent) has it's perks. And out of all the top 4 PP minute players, PAP has the lowest number of pts. Coincidentally? I don't think so. Moulson/JT/Streit are all better/more-important offensive players then PAP imo. In fact, comparatively to PP toi and taking into account Nielsen being on PP2 for a lot of the early season because of Rolston, Nielsen is similarly effective on the PP to PAP.
-PAP gets top 3 forward/top offensive line zone starts for our team. Now I don't believe the zone start to points correlation equation Neil Greenberg gave is accurate, but I'd say confidently giving someone offensively capable but not necessarily an "offensive dynamo", like Okposo, getting PAP's zonestarts would make him a 5pts/yr higher offensive player.
-PAP scores 40-50% of his goals on the PP and teams haven't prepared for PAP because they've focused on JT ahead of him and PAP hasn't had much NHL exposure. PAP isn't near as much of a goalscoring threat as people would hope and once teams watch more tape on him and figure out his offensive "game", they can gameplan for him better. And just knowing how much of a goalscoring threat he is, they will gameplan for him better, cheat towards the pass when he has the puck, and force him to take "hard-goalscorer" shots when the time comes. Odds are PAP's production goes down a bit because of this. You throw PAP on a 2nd PP unit, he'd be around a 10goal/yr player.
-PAP is the 3rd highest toi forward on the team, just another capable offensive player taking/upgraded-to those extra minutes should at least accumulate a few more pts then they usually do on average.
-PAP is turning 29 in March and is at or has hit his theoretical peak offensive play. It should and likely will only be downhill from here.
-Because of the above reasons, you can't realistically expect PAP to maintain his 65-70pts/yr play. Sure, he could be a 55-65pts player if the dice roll correctly for him in the next couple years. But if you give him a 4-5yr contract, the odds of him being an overall 45pts player averaged over the time of the contract would be more likely then him being a 65pts player over the life of the contract.
If we lose PAP, we could fill the immediate hole better then people realize because:
-Someone will step into his top PP minutes that was on the 2nd unit already. Our 1st PP unit is extremely effective and should be a strength for the next few years with or without PAP. Just flopping someone like KO or Bailey into PA's spot on the 1st PP should be able to fill-in for 75-90%(~80-82% averaged based on numbers) of PAP's pt production there, based on all past performances. So that PP wouldn't lose much effectiveness with PAP gone as most would think. Honestly, even MacDonald could fill in for 75-90% of PAP's PP pt production playing the pt on the 1st PP given his previous pts/second there and a slight effectiveness correlation equated in.
-Based on the above calculations, just throwing someone like Okposo into PAP's role should increase Okposo's yearly average production by 15-25pts. A lot of people don't realize how much of an impact being on a top PP unit with ample ice time, and getting top o-line favorable zone starts can increase/"inflate" ones statistics.
-2 capable offensive players we have that have been used in checking roles(low o-zone starts) this year "could" fill-in for a good portion of pt production that PAP has brought. Okposo and Grabs(Okposo has started being used this way recently though). It's easier to replace a checking forward then it is an offensive forward(although we have the cliental for both), and given our system, you would think any of Cizikas/Nelson/Martin/Lee/Ullstrom(?)/Bailey-even if his future isn't at center, could fill out a solid checking line next to nielsen.
-Strome and Nino are both projected top 6 forwards, odds are 1 of them will fill out into a capable enough top 6 forward within the next few years as PAP would have been over the next few years.
-PAP's a good stickhandler, but Strome has better hands. Nino has solid hands, Nielsen has solid hands, and Bailey has decent hands. All capable of being an entry zone puckhandler for each top 9 line, or even on the PP if need be. Dump and chase isn't a bad move either if need be and is even smart in some cases, lol.
-PAP isn't as good of a puckhandler as you'd think. His takeaway to giveaway ratio is a -15 this season, worst among all forwards on the team, meaning PAP has lost the puck 15 more times then he has taken it away from opponents. Not a quality puck control guy. Moulson and JT both are +23 and +30 respectively in this category and PAP is the only negative takeaway to giveaway forward on the team. Next closest to PAP is Rolston at even strength in this stat.
-PAP gets into more penalty trouble then most forwards on the team. Last year he had 46pim in 81gms, 3rd most minors behind JT and Konopka. This year PAP leads our team with 22minors, 7minors more then Martin who is 2nd on the team with 15minors, and is on the verge of a 32minor/64pim from minors season. And statistically, PAP takes .4 more penalties/60min then he has drawn this year. A bad habit and something that hurts this team more then it helps. Undisciplined maybe? Plays on the proverbial penalty taking edge too much?(as seen by his crosscheck penalty last game) Is a scrappy player? Either way, those are bad things and the outcome is a negative for this/his team.
So yes, we can fill most of the hole PAP would leave offensively in the near future and the evidence is above. Obviously this isn't the end all be all on the topic, just some thoughts and numbers I ran. Discuss.
Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.
43 comments
|
Add comment
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Strome is going to be good, but not next season. He won't be ready to be a top 6 guy next year, and based on what Nino has shown this year, he isn't quite ready for top 6 time either.
Gotta keep PAP if the money is reasonable i.e. 4 years $14M.
Don't be surprised if Nino(or Strome, but Nino more likely), put up a 20goal/40pts season next year.
Other 18yr old rookies have came in and done better, while Nino is gonna be 2yrs post draft then and Strome “could” be the next Jeff Skinner. Obviously this isn’t a sure thing, but don’t take heavy consideration what Nino has done this offensively year next to 2 completely offensive inept forwards while being used on a “checking” line of sorts, with 46.9% o-zone starts himself. Not really being used at all to produce offensively, especially because he has near no PP time and only 9min/gm of toi. Remember Nino was also drafted to be a goalscorer. Just the sheer bumping him up to a 3rd line and getting him some 2nd unit PP time should at minimum turn him into a 10goal scorer for next year. We really have no idea how much offense Nino is capable of, but based on juniors numbers, he would be an extreme dissappointment if he never became a 20goal scorer. I don’t want to say he will no question do it, but these players have all netted 20goals+ in their rookie years: Jamie Benn, Wheeler, Frolik, Berglund, Neal, Versteeg, Mueller, etc. A player of Nino’s caliber should definitely net 15goals next year with a decent center(although some question Bailey’s abilities if it’s him) and 2nd PP unit time. We’ll see, but if I had to predict how many goals next year Nino would score, I’d say the over/under is ~15, higher if he’s on the Tavares line or Nielsen line.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Yes
and to get more minutes for Nino is for the Snow at some point to realize that we have to give him and Ullstrom more ice time and that next season begins before the end of this season and give a better overhead view of the ice to the over paid and over the hill gang Snow brought in that turned out to be only salary cap mules.
Great writeup, Ozzy.
What would YOU do if you were GM?
Being born in New York and rooting for the Islanders, Jets, and Mets. Yeah, I know.
Twitter: cmauceri524
I'd like to keep PAP, but only as a stop gap because as I posted above, we can find someone to replace most of his pts production.
And since we have the cap room, I’d say 3yrs@4mil-4.5mil/yr. Problem is I don’t think he’ll sign it. He wants “term”, is what we’ve all heard. Likely someone on the market will give him 5yrs@$4mil/yr, but that’s just my educated guess and I think it will occur if we don’t resign him. And I can’t blame him either, that’s a lot more guaranteed money and this year could very well be his peak performance/best cashing out year.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I was about to post rpetty much the same thing...
I’ll just add two comments:
1) Good write-up
2) if the Isles once again can’t overpay for free agents, there’s a chance (depending on how the new CBA goes) that they might need to overpay PAP. If this is true, he might settle for less years. Three years at $5 million per is the same money as five years at $3 million, after all.*
- just throwing numbers up there as an example. I leave actual contract value to you guys.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 17, 2012 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
And... Footnote fail.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 17, 2012 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks. I agree that since we are gonna have to reach the salary floor anyway for the next couple years.
Overpaying PAP as a “stopgap” with a 3yrs @$5mil/yr deal would make sense.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
If they won't resign, Trade both Nabby & Pap
Pap might be attractive to a team with scoring down the middle…and a team with two goalies, like Van, could move one for a need elsewhere, filling the whole created with Nabby…of course a team with a need for a number one goalie would be interested too.
If packaged, and with their low salary, especially Nabby, there is enough parity in the NHL that some team might see it as a shot to win the cup, might even overpay.
No question the Isles need to add one, maybe two experienced D.
If Ness is for real (I am still waiting to see how he deals with getting hit by guys 6 inches, 40 pounds heavier), I think ideally you would want him paired with a player like Streit, both players can skate, pass and play offense…they of course would then be your first offensive zone pairing, and never get defensive zone starts (someone might want to teach Ness the hip-check, Darius? The Captain himself?).
Hamonic as an established number 2 Dman, and Amac in my mind as a very good number 5 Dman, I’d be willing to move Pap and Nabby for a solid, defensive zone specialist Dman, who is physical, fights, can make the first pass or at least to Amac, can logg long minutes and is signed for 3 or 4 years.
That would leave the team short a number one D, barring UFA or trade, Donovan and DeHaan are prospect fill ins, but would never be expected to be genuine number one Dmen by next season.
#1D Hamonic
Streit Ness
Amac *acquistion (maybe Mayfield someday)
Donovan
DeHaan
Wishart
I have confidence in Poulin playing 30-40 games next year. No confidence in DP’s health. Team will need to sign Montoya or someone else.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Feb 16, 2012 11:16 AM EST reply actions
Good post and breakdown. I think Ness is slowly working himself into at minimum the bottom pair next year.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
if it gets you a shot at the cup and you have depth @ D, you make that trade
Van or the Hawks, the Wings come to mind
by CanadianIsleslifer on Feb 16, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
I think we could get a good d-man prospect, an nhl ready d-man might be difficult. Team's love their depth for the playoffs.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
you don't think someone would give up
a D man comparable to Alberts or Rome for Pap and Nabby and maybe a pick? Isles can even through in a choice of Eaton, Staois or Jurcina. For a team like Van, that is their 6th and 7th Dman. They would then be able to package their most tradeable asset, G Sneider for help elsewhere, cap willing. That is just one potential example should the cards fall the right way.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Feb 17, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Uhh
Isles can even through in a choice of Eaton, Staois or Jurcina.
Wouldn’t the idea be to sweeten the deal? :)
by sayvillelax94 on Feb 17, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Ozzy - good job.......
some observations and conclussions are open to discussion, but in general I agree that he may be worth more right now than in 11 days and certainly by the summer. It would be a shame to lose him for nothing and that could happen if Snow loses the poker game that is going on while we all writing about it here. He could fetch a 2 pick by the trade deadline but not more since the opposing GMs know he is a UFA this summer. A package with Nabby to the Hawks who are playing poorly all over the ice might yield us a #2 pick + one of their stud farm hand big Ds in Rockford [their AHL Farm team] and maybe a second player as well.
Interesting stuff, good food for thought
You’re right about the PP reliance and that we shouldn’t expect 70 points, but … well truly I expect 50+ points. And I don’t see who’s going to replace that.
Also, I think his right-shooting is a part of why the PP works, and why he’s important there.
I put almost zero stock in his takeaway/giveaway ratio: It’s a dubious stat, and there’s basically just a high volume of events there that indicates he’s in on the action and on the puck a lot.
Granted, he definitely commits turnovers and sometimes tries to do too much, but he’s quite clearly one of the few players who can rush the puck up ice and find linemates in stride. The Islanders need more of that, not less of that, and I’m not counting on any prospects to deliver it next year.
Finally, if the Isles suffer from their bottom six, then having PAP around is exactly what they need, as even if he’s bumped by a rising star prospect, that only means we actually have competent forwards embedded more deeply in the lineup.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 16, 2012 12:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I lean more with this,
Could we live without PAP, maybe, will we do as well without him if no hole is filled and we rely solely on prospects, no. I do agree that Nino could potentially pot 15 goals next year, that Strome could potentially could have a Jeff Skinner Rookie season, but would I want to count on any of that production, not really. I would rather count on 50 points from PAP.
I would rather give the money to PAP to allow us to keep players developing for the sake of developing and not being asked or thought to produce because of his absence. Also there are all the intangible factors that you are not really going to see with a rookie right away, and that is team chemistry, outspoken, loud, and yeah, gritz.
- couple of points on the main post too,
It seems like you dismiss anything PAP does on the PP, as if somebody will fill the slot and boom magic. He is a reason it is the 5th best PP in the league, along with 4 other reasons. Take him out and I see it being less effective. Not to mention the chemistry the PP has, just throwing another bird in there will not be the same.
It is a good thing PAP is a PP specialist actually, because that means you can slot him on any line and take his talents to that line, whether it is third or second line. Like Dom said, if somebody bumps him, he can easily move around.
The hitting 29 and magically going downhill from there does not really cut it as a point. 2nd NHL season at 29 years old, which is a different story than being 29 and in his 9th NHL season. He has more room to grow, less injuries, and less people know about him. I think he can certainly be an even better player next year. For a guy like PAP, decline might not start till say 33 or 34 or whenever.
Kind of going off that and adding towards, why wouldnt he play at the same level now. Like you said, most of his Points come from the PP, I doubt that takes a nose dive just because he getting paid. Maybe ES, maybe. Also PAP seems like the type of person, this is purely speculation, but a counter argument on something subjective anyways, that he wants to be known in this league and prove others wrong, like oh say all those other teams that never gave him a shot, or passed him up. The guy is a gamer, its pretty clear, that attitude doesn’t usually die off.
Question, on the speculation that somebody could fill in for PAP and could assume at least 75 percent of his production, was PAP playing on the team on more specifically on that PP when say Okposo or Macdonald played?
I understand we would all rather him stay here, but I do not think he is easily replaced and it would cause problems all the way down the depth chart. I would rather PAP stay here for 4 years and pull 50 points a season, mainly doing PP duty on the 2/3rd line then have to make a rookie, Okposo, Grabner, Macdonald or whoever fill his role and then get somebody to play their role too.
by ghalbart on Feb 16, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
rec'd both this and Dom's
And actually, it’s not even true he scored most of his points on the PP. He’s 22nd in the league in EV points (21st in total points) and for example is 2nd in the league in 5-on-5 1st assists per 60. I know it’s not the most telling stat and the following is mainly for fun, but since this stat has been tracked by Gabe, only Crosby, Malkin, both Sedins, Brad Richards, Krejci and the current leader Ray Whitney have had seasons with better numbers than PA’s current ones there.
by BenHasna on Feb 16, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I don't dismiss PAP on the PP, I just think he is the 4th most important on the top PP behind JT/Streit/Moulson.
I think chemistry talk is a bit overrated. If you are playing with the talent group of moulson/JT/Streit on a PP, it’d be hard to not click much with them, and they should elevate the best of you as a player. Yes, I do believe our PP isn’t as good without PAP, but I don’t believe it drops much without him because we do have suitable/solid replacements for his production.
The PP production of Okposo in the past is without PAP on it and the PP production with A-mac is with PAP on it, but without Streit so I think that’s somewhat of a wash there.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to keep PAP for a few more years too, but if we do lose him, I believe we could fill in the missing gaps from him leaving fairly well in the next couple years and extremely well long term.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I see your points, I just
cannot imagine us being as good or better next year without him, just from shuffling around and relying on rookies.
I think you are weighing to heavily on our offense as reasons for success.
Defense is this team’s biggest weakness, (and depth scoring, but I addressed that in my response to Dom’s post below). Just upgrading our bottom 3 d-men to at least 1 or 2 functionally reliable d-men would be a huge stride for this team, especially if that d-men can log 19-20min/gm reliably. And just based on what we have in the ahl right now, Ness-coming up and playing solidly, Donovan supposedly around Ness’s level and/or better offensively, DeHaan was a 1st round d-prospect, wishart should a ton of promise on the bottom pair last year. We really should see substantial improvement there next year and that could be huge for our team. We were a league average scoring team last year with konopka/gillies/haley/martin-somewhat “bad” last year playing lots of games, streit hurt for the whole season, okposo hurt half the season, and PAP adding “only” 50pts. Nino is coming up(Strome might), some ahl prospects are gonna come up, and we may even add someone in the offseason for bottom 6 depth. I think offense isn’t gonna be the issue at all unless we bring in ancient players that disturb our flow/work-ethic or injuries complete destroy our producton. Our top line’s production is as good mostly any top line’s production in the NHL, our 2nd line has struggled at times but is adequate offensively. Offense shouldn’t be an issue, defense could be but is looking much better. Honestly though, the playoffs will be another tough reach next year with or without PAP unless our D really takes a nice jump next year in performance or we add a solid 3rd liner/bottom 6 forward.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Okposo is a RH shot, so he could fill in with the top PP well. Nino liked the right side too down the line, and Strome is RH, so it doesn't look as crazy of a fill-in as one would think.
I think the negative takeaway to giveaway ratio shows us how much PAP is a “high risk-high reward” passer/forward or as you say, he also tries to do too much with the puck at times.
Obviously the puck management thing is arguably the biggest thing we’d have to worry about with losing PAP, not really the points production. That said, I believe the takeaway to giveaway ratio shows he just isn’t very safe with the puck. That’s fine if you might agree with that, but just looking around the league, there’s a reason why the top puckhandlers in the NHL have + ratios in this category and show you the “riskiness or thinking issues-so to speak” of some of the other “highly thought of” puck carriers/possessors in the NHL.
I think the bottom 6 issues are overstated going forward honestly. Nino isn’t fit to fill out a 4th line role but is forced to do so even if it’s against his nature/game, Wallace is a depth player by all means, Pandolfo has no place on this team in the future, and Reasoner is having the worst year of his career. The 4th line shouldn’t be an issues going forward, especially if as it looks, a couple AHL prospects look ready to take one or 2 of those jobs next season(Cizikas/Ullstrom). The 3rd line I honestly believe is just a “3rd person”/Rolston-issue. The Rolston/Comeau/Bailey thing caused issues for the 1st 20 or so games of the season, and after that it’s visually been more effective. Martin looks capable of having a 10goal season with a good portion of his year on the 4th line and having heavily limited PP time and playing with Rolston. Bailey looks like he could very well be an adequate defensive forward with playmaking skills(although his decision making and going to the next step where we want him hasn’t happened yet), and in all honesty I think Nino should very well be ready to add 10goals+ to that line next season. I don’t think the 3rd line is really a big issue going forward, that should in all honestly be “passable”/“adequate” as a 3rd line, just not predictable spectacular next year unless Nino makes a big stride or Bailey makes a big stride. And this is still all assuming that Snow doesn’t add a bottom 6 forward to the team next year, which he very well could and likely will(possibly a 4th liner though) for depth purposes.
In a perfect world, we’d have PAP for another couple years, but in all honesty I don’t think that’s gonna happen unless Garth gives in and I don’t think he will.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Right.
The Isles should try to re-sign him. But trading him will not screw the team as others might believe
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
This is my point, and I think people are misinterpretting what I'm saying.
Obviously we highly likely can’t replace all of PAP’s, likley 50pts+ production the next year or 2, but we could likely fill-in/replace 75-85% of it with in team promotions(okposo/grabner/macdonald-PP) and maturation of prospects(Strome/Nino/Ullstrom/Cizikas). Okposo has decent offensive instincts and on a top functionaly PP(not like the one he was on a couple years ago), could really surprise people with his production, and possibly even elevate his 5-on-5 offensive game too(if the zone starts and more ice time wouldn’t already). Then you have to replace “okposo the 30-40pts checking forward”, which I believe could be decently compensated in house by someone on a line next to nielsen fairly well.
This isn’t about us 100% replacing PAP with no ill effects, this is damage control. And I truly believe the damage control of losing PAP wouldn’t be as bad as people think. That said, I think the perfect thing to do with him would be to resign him for 3yrs as a “stopgap” of sorts. Any longer is likely too long arguably because of cap space/cliental “issues”(also dependent on our team budget) and possible aging decline.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
well said
not time to jump onto the life raft if he does get moved/walk
These comments crawl up from the depths of the deepest Chasm of Saar
My feelings on this
Long-run, yes I think the team will be fine with or without PAP in the lineup. He’s proven that he’s a 50+ point per season player two years in a row now, and whether that’s inflated due to PP time or the JT91 effect, it doesn’t matter – the guy makes points happen. Sure, down the line it’s projected that one of Ullstrom/Nino/Strome/Rahk/Nelson/Lee/Kabanov/Petrov will replace his productivity, but when, exactly?
Expecting Nino to pot 15 goals or Strome to have a Skinner-like season for next year is wishful thinking. It depends upon who their linemates are and how they’re being utilized, and unfortunately I feel like there isn’t enough talent on the Isles to turn either of these two into consistent goal scorers for next season.
The one thing that worries me about losing PAP for next year is that, as it stands right now, only three Islanders are on pace for a 50+ point season – Tavares, Moulson and PAP. PAP has been off the 1st line for over a month now, and yet continues to be on pace for a 50+ point season. Remove him from the equation, and you’re looking at an even more depressed offense for 2012-2013. Expecting Okposo, Grabner, Nielsen, Bailey, or any of the incoming rookies to make up for PAP’s point differential is questionable – frankly, I have zero faith that any of those players can contribute the offense that PAP has. We’re looking at a middle-6 that has severely disappointed and struggled in the offense department, so removing one of the best offensive players this team has would do severe damage down the depth chart.
If he was signed through to the end of 2013, then I’d be more okay with letting him go and relying on seasoned Bridgeport players (Ullstrom, Rahk, Kabanov, Petrov (?)) or offensively gifted junior players (Strome, Nino) to step in. But frankly, that’s not the case, and without PAP I think we’re looking at a team with a worse offense for next year.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 16, 2012 1:19 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Read my reply's above(specifically garik reply).
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Saying the obvious............
and repeating what most have been saying on various threads…………. if we don’t make a deal we can live with, – with PAP, by the deadline we may end up losing him for nothing this summer as a UFA. If he gets that far, why wouldn’t he test the waters before aggreeing to a contract he probably already turned down? So the next week or so IMO will tell whether we can either sign him or get something back for him as a rental. I’d be happy with a #2 pick, but I think we would be better off with a trade for a top 4 still young big D which we don’t have and need and is not down at BPT for use next season. We could make the play-offs with out PAP, but not with an upgrade at defense.
ps
meant obviously in the last sentence [with out an upgrade at defense.]
We cannot lose PAP for nothing!!!
Garth has done a great job in making draft picks and picking jems from the waiver wire. I would love to have him back for the next 3-4 years, but if you cannot sign him now, you have no choice but to trade him.
If you package PA with a prospect, possibly Nabby and a draft pick you should be able to bring back a valuable asset in return. Garth has the chips…. We cannot continue to accept the losing. This team needs to continue to improve. Having PA and gaining some of the efficencies Ozzy has mentioned should help to bring us to the next level, but if you can’t sign him we cannot go backwards. Take some of those chips and turn them into another asset.
As many have commented throughout the year, we are entering the critical time of the rebuild. If Garth does not handle this correctly it was all for nothing. You cannot have a team depending on 5 to 8 first or second year players and expect to be a playoff team. I also feel many are overestimating just how good this team is right now. Every big game we have had vs an eastern conference team we get totally outplayed. Nabby has kept it interesting and it has been great to be engaged in scoreboard watching for the first time in years but do not let Nabby’s brilliance fool you into thinking this team is ahead of where it is. If you lose PA and get nothing of significance in return this team goes another year backwards in realistic hopes of competing.
Just my opionion
by Best Thing Going on Feb 16, 2012 5:04 PM EST reply actions
i see your point
however, i just dont see us nabbing a player with similar point production from the free agent pool.
by jrams16 on Feb 16, 2012 8:48 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Sorry Ozzy I Gotta Disagree With You on This One
You ask: Does anyone really think PAP will play as hard and as good as he has this year for the length of his next contract?
Yes. This is a blood and guts guy, along the lines of a Marty St. Louis (who, granted, has a higher level of skill). It took PAP a while to get to the NHL, but he made it because he’s got no quit in him. He’ll continue to play hard.
Yes, he plays on the 5th best PP in the NHL. He’s partly responsible for that. He’s no free rider on that score.
Why does it matter that he gets top 3 forward/top offensive line zone starts? Since he produces, that can continue.
No, he’s not the goal scoring threat that some other players are. Yes, he’s quickly becoming a real high end assist guy. And very recently, he’s now taking to rushing the puck up ice, and doing that very effectively.
PAP may be coming up on 29 but he’s gotta a motor that doesn’t really stop. Unlike some other players, I would not expect a significant drop off over a 4 or 5 year period.
We can all talk about replacements, but there are no guarantees. If someone outplays him, you can trade PAP as long as you don’t include a no trade and the new contract is pretty reasonable.
I don’t mind the penalty minutes. A lot of those are retaliation penalties and nasty shots. I like that aspect of PAP’s game.
by rmblifn on Feb 16, 2012 11:37 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
It’s his contract year. Does anyone really think PAP will play as hard and as good as he has this year for the length of his next contract? Not a chance, partially due to aging and partially for other obvious reasons.
to say this is the reason seem unwarranted to me. He playe dhard last season, his first full season, and came in ready to be better this season as anyone should do.
The fact is he helped the JT line, and when taken off he has helped Frans too. He looks to be a legitimate passer to me.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Feb 17, 2012 8:49 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
It's not the fact that I don't think he can play "hard" as he does this year as next year. It's that I don't think PAP will be playing as "hard" as he does now as he would when he's 34yrs old.
Which is likely gonna happen.
And it’s not really that I don’t think PAP is a great passer, he is. I just don’t think he’s a 70pts player. As I said above, top PP minutes on a top 5 PP/playing alongside Streit/JT/MM, Getting top line o-zone faceoffs, ample ice time, all have their benefits to help one rack up points. You swap Okposo or Grabner into that role and mathematically they should be able to throw up an extra 15-25pts/yr, ala PAP switching roles would turn him from a 70pts forward to a 50pts forward, which I think PAP is around. Even moreso when you consider his next contract is gonna be paying him till his mid-30’s and he’s hit his “theoretical” peak offensively already.
Don’t get me wrong, I think PAP is an excellent playmaker, it’s just that his high numbers are the effect than the cause. I don’t think he’s gonna pull a Ville Leino, going from a 50pts to a 25pts forward after he left Briere and went to Buffalo, but if PAP leaves this team and PP I would not for 1 second be surprised of him turning into a 45-50pts forward on average for the next couple years. Just for comparions sake, PAP putting up a 15goal/60-70pts season against the stuff he faces isn’t nearly as impressive as say, David Backes putting 25-30goal/60-70pts seasons against tougher competition in a heavy defensive zone starting/“checking” situation or Mike Fisher putting up a 25goal/50-60pts season against much tougher competition in a heavy d-zone starting/“checking” situation. It’s not just about productivity, but context too.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
You do realize
that the argument you’re using here to discredit PAPs contribution is the same one that you were fighting Greenberg about when he was using it on JT right?
Neil Smith @bigdealneil94 @KeithLHHockey @craigjbutton hey keith GFY
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Feb 20, 2012 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not really, the part I'm using is was maybe 1/5th of his argument, and I by no means agree to the percentage or amount these things inflate numbers like he stated.
If Greenberg made these calculations, he’d “find out” PAP’s numbers were inflated by 23-35pts instead of my more realistic calculation. And I also think PAP as somewhat more of a 2ndary scoring option, meaning JT creates the most the offense altogether with his passing and goalscoring and “runs” the line, Moulson scores the most goals, and PAP is just the “3rd” most important producer on that line as the assists/playmaking guy. JT is the creator of the offense, and PAP is somewhat a cause(but not totally) of JT’s play and moulson’s finishing ability. Again, I don’t think PAP is terrible, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that JT/MM/PAP are all in the top 30 of scoring in the NHL. And I don’t think a playmaker is as important as a goalscorer. There is both cause and effect from PAP on that line though and on the PP, difference is I think MM/JT help PAP more than PAP helps them. MM was a 30goal scorer before PAP got there. JT was a 24goal/54pts rookie before PAP got there. JT was considered an elite offensive talent his whole life, Matt Moulson was a top 24goalscorer in the NHL before PAP came. I hate to throw PAP into a negative light, because he is a good playmaker, but he’s not a 70pts player without being on a top 5 caliber PP, he’s not a 70pts player without all the playing luxuries he has, as I’ll state below. I think he is a 50-55pts playmaker over the next couple of years on an ~average team’s top line.
And I think the main difference between my argument and Greenberg’s argument is that mine is a within team argument. Because of the fact “PAP” plays on the JT/MM line, gets the top line o-zone faceoff percentage, gets top PP minutes on a top PP, etc, his stats are a bit inflated and getting to the important part of the point, “most” of PAP’s stats can be immediately replaced by other “efficient” offensive players on the team. As I stated above, most of his PP production can be filled in for, and just throwing an okposo or grabner type(not 30goals grabner) into PAP’s role on the team as a whole should statistically boost one’s stats by 15-25pts. That said, Okposo “probably isn’t” a 100% fill-in because he probably isn’t a 50pts player away from JT(although who knows given Okposo’s progression), same with Grabner. But still, damage control wise this isn’t all that bad at all. Yes, losing a 50pts/yr playmaker will hurt the team, but will by no means cripple us and if Nino or Strome surprise us in the next 2yrs, we might barely miss him. Remember, this year we’ve done “this good” with ultimately no secondary scoring and terrible defense. Just the defensive upgrades along I’d assume would be enough to make up for losing 20pts of production from the lineup(possibly even less given health and better/younger choices throughout our roster for offense/puckmoving). I just think his loss is very overstated.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
PAP just keeps on rolling.
When you draft a kid you hope he can become a 70-80 pt player on your hockey team. We had one fall into our laps and the more I think about it the more we need to sign him now. We are the cheapest hockey team in the league. We the fans cannot accept losing a player like PAP over a few dollars that almost every other team in the league would give him if they were not at or approaching the cap. We have been preconditioned into the mindset of we have to underpay or lose the player.
If Wang can’t pay competative compensation for talent then sell the team already and get someone in here who actually cares about winning.
by Best Thing Going on Feb 20, 2012 11:44 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I so totally think you’re off the mark here, I can hardly believe you’re serious writing this whatever., PA is an excellent player, his stats are right up there with the best and he’s very nicely integrated with the team. You can’t replace him,. you can go on, obviously, but his loss would be a severe one.There are now several Islanders whose loss would be most unfortunate at this point in time. Were the team more developed.. and it’s growing with every game. But, to lose an excellent player entering his prime … no, I don’t agree it wouldnt be as bad as one might think. I think it would be worse.
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
Islanders Schedule
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Who are the Non-Smythe candidates for the Devils, Kings?
- End is near for Rick Nash, Blue Jackets as trade discussions set to resume
- Why the Devils and the Kings are evidence the Capitals shouldn’t trade Alex Ovechkin
- Eulogy: Remembering the 2011-12 New York Rangers
- Stanley Cup Final: 5 keys for New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings
SBNation.com Recent Stories
1979-80
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
