To Hope, or Not to Hope...
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 9:28 PM EST
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There's been lots of talk about here recently about the Isles' chances of making the playoffs, especially in relation to the trade deadline (should we trade this guy or that guy or will they be the ones who get us to the Promised Land?). On one side, you have people seeing the points differential between the Isles and 8th place slowly shrinking, and on the other, you have those who count the number of teams between the Isles and 8th and say it can never happen.
So I had some spare time during lunch today to analyze the hill our team must climb. Here's what I found.
First up is determining how easy the Isles' remaining games will be. That's fairly simple: just figure out each team's strength of schedule for their remaining games (Str Schd column below). After listing all the remaining games and averaging out the points percentage of each team's remaining opponents (in other words, adding the current "winning percentage" of each opponent and then dividing by the remaining number of games left), we get this for the Eastern Conference:
| W | L | OTL | Pts | Pts Pct | Str Schd | Rank | ||
| 1. | NY Rangers | 37 | 13 | 5 | 79 | 0.718 | 0.54865 | 13 |
| 2. | Boston | 34 | 18 | 2 | 70 | 0.648 | 0.55747 | 9 |
| 3. | Florida | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 | 0.591 | 0.52752 | 15 |
| 4. | Philadelphia | 31 | 18 | 7 | 69 | 0.616 | 0.56541 | 5 |
| 5. | Pittsburgh | 32 | 19 | 5 | 69 | 0.616 | 0.57112 | 4 |
| 6. | New Jersey | 32 | 20 | 4 | 68 | 0.607 | 0.57252 | 2 |
| 7. | Ottawa | 29 | 22 | 8 | 66 | 0.559 | 0.55766 | 8 |
| 8. | Toronto | 28 | 23 | 6 | 62 | 0.544 | 0.56359 | 6 |
| 9. | Washington | 28 | 23 | 5 | 61 | 0.545 | 0.54937 | 12 |
| 10. | Winnipeg | 26 | 26 | 6 | 58 | 0.500 | 0.55531 | 10 |
| 11. | NY Islanders | 24 | 24 | 8 | 56 | 0.500 | 0.57537 | 1 |
| 12. | Montreal | 23 | 25 | 9 | 55 | 0.482 | 0.54858 | 14 |
| 13. | Buffalo | 24 | 26 | 6 | 54 | 0.482 | 0.57175 | 3 |
| 14. | Tampa Bay | 24 | 26 | 6 | 54 | 0.482 | 0.55210 | 11 |
| 15. | Carolina | 21 | 25 | 11 | 53 | 0.465 | 0.56035 | 7 |
[Points percentage is the percentage of points your team has earned versus the total number of points that could have potentially earned. Therefore, if your team played 50 games so far, then there's 100 points up for grabs. If your team has 60 points, then your team has a .600 points percentage.]
The last column, Rank, shows who has the toughest remaining schedule, and our Isles are #1. Unfortunately, that's the opposite of a good thing. They have the toughest remaining schedule of all Eastern Conference teams, while the four teams immediately above them (Ottawa through Winnipeg) have either easy or middle-of-the-road schedules left to their seasons.
Yikes! This isn't starting off very well. I was going to next project how the teams would do based on their strength of schedule, but obviously at this point, any such calculation would only show the Isles dropping further. So let's try something else instead.
How about games remaining versus the competition? Four point games are incredibly crucial, so if the Isles win the majority of their games against the Ottawas and Washingtons, they'd be in pretty good shape, right? Let's just focus on seventh place (who the Isles currently trail by 10 points) down to the Isles' current position:
| Points | Games | Potential | ||
| Behind | vs. | Gap | ||
| 7. | Ottawa | 10 | 3 | 4 |
| 8. | Toronto | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 9. | Washington | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 10. | Winnipeg | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 11. | NY Islanders | --- | --- | --- |
If the Isles won each and every game against the teams that stand between themselves and the playoffs, the Isles would still be four points out (the "Potential Gap" above). But there's another thing to consider: games in hand. The Isles have three in hand on the Sens, and one in hand each on Washington and Winnipeg. If the Isles win all of those games as well, they'd leap frog the Sens, Caps, and Jets, and would be in 8th place, four points behind the Leafs. And remember: that's if the Isles win ALL of those head-to-head games, and then still find a way to maintain their razor-thin leads over the Sens, Caps and Jets the rest of the way, while carrying out the most difficult remaining schedule.
Add to that the fact that the teams above our Isles also have games remaining against each other. There are plenty of potential three-point games that can make life even more difficult: the Sens play the Caps, Jets, and Leafs once each. The Caps and Leafs play twice, as do the Caps and Jets. There will definitely be two points handed out to each of the teams above the Isles for each of these games, so at least some of those thin leads that the Isles would have if they won every head-to-head match-up with these teams are actually a mirage.
Look, I'm the first person who wants to believe that there's a chance the Isles are getting into the playoffs, but they would have to play so over their heads and then some to get it done. Is there a chance? Well, yes. In fact, according to Sports Club Stats, the odds stand around 4% before the start of tonight's games (assuming a coin-flip determining a victory). I'd love nothing more than to think they can pull it off, but if you were Garth Snow, and you did this math, it'd be hard not to start looking towards next year. [UPDATE: Actually, as pointed out by Mark D, the odds were 14% assuming coin flips. 4% was the odds when the program weighs the coin flip based on current records. Apparently they switched what the default is since the last time I've viewed the site. So Mark just tripled our chances! Woo-hoo!!!]
All of these stats are as of the close of 2/14/12. There are about a dozen days until the trade deadline, and about half a dozen Isles games. I'll revisit this issue a day or two before the deadline to see if anything changed significantly. But I would think that if the odds are still that bad at that point, Garth will start shopping a few people. Is it really worth holding on to players who you don't think will re-sign, just for that small sliver of a chance that all the planets align correctly for a #8 seed?
Sorry to those who might've had their hopes dampened by this. I'm sure you already knew the odds weren't good, but that didn't stop you before. No reason why you should stop now.
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Great work on compiling the data and running the numbers as they say. The numbers here and else where speak the truth on the odds and reality of the Islanders making the playoffs. As a person and a sports fan, everyone always wants and will hold onto a belief that no matter what the odds are they will defend their team to the very last second possible until all hope is obliterated.
What I really enjoyed is how you brought forth this information in a non-sarcastic and non-condescending tone that everyone can understand and use to their benefit when looking at our chances of making it to the playoffs and whether or not the Islanders should make certain moves.
It will be interesting to see where we are at the end of February along with the other teams. March certainly looks like a hell of a schedule and I would be proud of the team to at least make this an over .500 season while playing some desperate all out trench warfare style of hockey.
by ghalbart on Feb 15, 2012 10:15 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Thanks.
I actually went through this exercise because I had no idea how realistic it was. I always new the Bettman Bonus Point makes things look closer than they really are, but this really drove the point home for me. So what you see as you read this is me literally trying to figure things out, and then in the end reluctantly coming to the rather grim conclusion. But, if Sports Club Stats can run a bunch of seasons and have the Isles find a path to the playoffs in some of those seasons (no matter how few they are), then I, too, will have that little bit of hope in the face of everything else.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone have
Garth’s email address? Just in case…
Great crunching. It sucks, but that October/November stretch really was a dagger. Unfortunate, because they are playing much better now.
I think part of the reason why we are looking so much for hope...
… is that the Isles played so well at the end of last season. I really thought they’d be in a better position this year, even if they would ultimately fall a bit short.
So, yeah, that early part of the year really deflated me.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, but it does not factor in momentum
If we look at this projection using the last ten games as its basis, we see a closer situation. Certainly, this is not entirely scientific, but does reflect on current momentum. And while the 5-3-2 is not ridiculously unrealistic, it may of course not be enough. The difficulty of the schedule may be cause for concern, but then again the difference is not all that great in percentage points.
So I’d conclude that there is room for cautious hope at this stage and the next week or two will clear things up a bit further.
It is Diduck.
Except we've been extremely lucky in those 10 games to actually do as well as we have.
We really haven’t played better than usually in the last 10.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
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by garik16 on Feb 16, 2012 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, sometimes we forget that we were outplayed and without some puck luck and a lot of nabby luck, that record would be drastically different.
Likely even below .500 hockey.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
On the other hand
The refs took a couple of points from us- the phantom Hamonic penalties (delay of game and high stick), the phantom JT dive, and possibly others.
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Feb 16, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think we just have to take that as a given, unfortunately
There’s a bias against lower-rung teams. Calls that the Isles might’ve gotten earlier in the year simply don’t happen as often as they should now. So long as the Isles benefit from the officiating when they’re in the top half of the league (whenever that happens), then I won’t complain much about it.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, I hope you're right.
I tried not to factor in momentum, because then I’d also have to factor in injuries like Hamonic, which for sure will make 5-3-2 or an even better record more difficult to maintain every 10 games.
But I had a lot riding on this year. Not only for the fact that the Isles played so well in the second half of last year, but because a better Islander team could help to force the local Nassau politicians into getting off their five-holes and doing something about a new arena. So like many others, I was looking at the standings and hoping that it wasn’t as bad as it looks.
The numbers seem to say that it is that bad, though. But not impossible. I guess we’ll be talking again near the end of next week, Paumanok. Cheers!
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 11:12 PM EST reply actions
(reply fail. should be in reply to Paumanok's post)
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
I hope so too
Although I was being too cautious to be called right if they do pull it out.
In any case, Hamonic’s injury already factors into to 5-3-2, I believe, as it was 6-2-2 or something at one point, but we just don’t know who might catch fire – or be injured for that matter.
Also, I’d point out that the Islanders have a game in hand on the Leafs as well, and will have another one on them in an hour or two (although Toronto is leading 2-1 in the 2nd). Now if the Oilers only come back to win this one…
It is Diduck.
Game's tied now. :-D
Although I see that the Sens won. Doh!
Time for bed. Good night.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
Another thing not in our favor: Regulation/OT wins
The tiebreaker now is Regulation Wins + OT Wins (the ROW column in the standings at nhl.com).
Right now the Isles are six points (three wins) behind the Leafs, 12 (six wins) behind the Sens by points, yet they’re three ROWs behind the Jets, seven ROWs behind the Capitals, and five ROWs behind the Leafs and Sens. One and two ROWs behind Montreal and TB, too.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Shhh, don't remind!
But yes, they’ll need to beat them by a full point in the standings. Or just win all remaining games the old-fashioned way, of course.
It is Diduck.
Well in order to catch the other teams, the Isles would need to beat all of those teams head-to-head.
ANd they’ll need to do it in regulation so the other team doesn’t get a Bettman Bonus Point. Therefore, if the Isles just do what they have to do, that would be quite a few ROWs right there.
It’s the least of our concerns, sadly. The fact that these other teams will be desperate to grab points is our bigger and more obvious issue.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 7:16 AM EST up reply actions
The Problem is That the Islanders Can't Get Out of the Atlantic Division Cellar
As long as they remain in last place in the division, they’re only fighting for two playoff spots since they are already conceding spots to the Rangers, Flyers, Penguins, Devils, the Northeast Division Winner and the Southeast Division winner.
Until they get out of the basement of their own division, the playoffs are likely to be a dream.
I don't see how that makes a difference
Unless the best SE team is worse than all Atlantic teams, which is of course theoretically possible.
It is Diduck.
I’ll bet given your calculations that The Islanders would never even have gotten to the point they are now … 6 points behind 8th last playoff spot place.
Numbers are numbers – probabilities are what they are, However, some things aren’t taken into consideration., For a good example – this is a team in development and one that has specifically been developing this year. Their odds almost can’t be taken so mathematically into consideration as you;‘ve done because they are and yet aren;t the same team that played the games you are looking at in the past months. My point is that this is a good team that is just becoming a good team and while it may be comprised of the same people who played last November, they aren’t the same players. So, that invalidates a large part of your point in my opinion, And that’s why statistics cannot always give the exact or correct answer – If you think because of your analysis that the Islanders might as just go home and forget the rest of the season… I hope you don;‘t live your personal life that way as you’d never try to go past your limits and grow and that;s what I see this team as having done and continuing to do,. Nabokov isn’t the same Nabokov we saw 3 months ago neither is most of the group, So, your points are interesting, but I wouldn’t just sit down and die because of them.
Like i said...
… If you were hopeful before i wrote this up, then you shouldn’t be deterred now. My point is that it is not impossible, although highly improbable. Enjoy the chase, by all means!
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 7:21 AM EST up reply actions
Great job, and this is the reason I think we should resign or move PAP and Nabby.
Garth needs to be realistic here and play his cards correctly. You can’t let PAP go for nothing if we can’t resign him and you can’t let Nabby walk for nothing if he has solid trade value now, actually both have solid trade value now as PAP is a top 30 offensive forward right now and Nabokov is 7th overall in save percentage.
I’d also be a good time to start checking out what we have in ahl prospects before next season, mainly d-men because the ufa fillings we will need to do for our top 7. But also we should gauge what we have in our ahl forwards too.
But people also have to remember that draft picks can be very valuable and turn into solid nhl players for us in the future or even the rare “gold” picks, in team example: Hamonic-late 2nd rounder/Nielsen-late 3rd rounder/MacDonald-6th rounder/“Martin even to an extent”-late 5th rounder. These picks we acquire could make a big difference, or at minimal(say a 3rd and a 1st or a 3rd and a 2nd) a should be bottom 4 d-man or bottom 6 forward(and possibly a great one).
Brock Nelson was a late late 1st rounder, if we could turn PAP and Nabby into Brock Nelson instead of losing them for free in a non-playoff year, wouldn’t you do that 99 times out of 100? Think about it.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
by OzzyFan on Feb 16, 2012 1:39 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
For the record to answer the title of this question:
YES HOPE.
Don’t expect.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 16, 2012 2:00 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Hope
If over the next 6 games before the trade deadline, we can get atleast 8 points, we will be playing meaningful games in March for the first time in 5 years. I would take that at this point in the re-build. Also, having the toughest schedule means we should be up for more games and not over-look opponents.
If they do that....
…. I’ll run these numbers again. I hope the picture will be considerably brighter in that event.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 7:23 AM EST up reply actions
a double edged sword
For sure….making the playoffs is a step in the right direction….getting swept in the first round ( by the rags ) (AGAIN) keeps me up at night.
by WRANGLERICK on Feb 16, 2012 6:20 AM EST via mobile reply actions
understood
And I wanna sleep !….another philly type run would be sweet tho. I get the " mountain " needs to be climbed one hill at a time. Just like ’ 75 – ‘79, I’m an old timer, what can I say ?. Just like bossy has been quoted…it wasn’t the 84 oilers that stopped us from 5 cups in a row, it was the 79 rangers that stopped us.
by WRANGLERICK on Feb 16, 2012 9:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't wanna make the playoffs if I'm gonna here we were swept this year by them, "and" they possibly win the cup.
That would be a nightmare we isles fans won’t live down for a while.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
But not knowing what the future beholds, you would be okay with a 1st round series vs. Rags, right?
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 16, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Yes. I think we'd be able to steal at least 1gm from them in reality.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
That's the spirit!
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 16, 2012 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t wanna make the playoffs if I’m gonna here we were swept this year by them, “and” they possibly win the cup.
I dont want to see 1994 all over again, either- believe me- but IMO making the playoffs is always better than not making the playoffs. They have to keep trying- I dont care if they fall short as long as they are doing their damnedest to get there. In the end all I really want (and would be disappointed if I dont see) is a season over NHL-.500.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 16, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah. But getting blown out could theoretically "hurt" their mentality going forward into playoff series's
Not that I agree with all that psychological stuff.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I'm with TMC on the falling short, but I want to see them go for it, and have that experince for next season.
Even if we don’t make it.
How do Islander fans spell hope?
T-A-V-A-R-E-S
by BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Feb 16, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Even if we make it and we get destroyed by the Rangers in the first round
The series itself could be enough to not only add another spark to the rivalry, but attract A LOT more fans. For all we know, the County is waiting for proof that the Islanders staying would be beneficial for them (which it would be even if they dropped like a stone and played 15th place hockey for the next 5 years).
It’s like when you’ve been in a relationship for a long time, one breaks it off, and then they want you back. You could play the dignity card and disallow him/her from “winning” what they want, but at the same time it might just feel better to get back together. Unfortunately, this is more of a business than a relationship, and Wang may very well leave with his dignity in tact – sort of.
by sayvillelax94 on Feb 16, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
March comes in like a lion
and pretty much turns into a damn pride of lions for the Islanders. If they make it out with a respectable record, I’ll be happy.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Feb 16, 2012 9:47 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
One of the things
that always comes up is ‘can the Isles maintain this pace?’
10 games is just 10 games, or about 12% of a full season. I started the build of the 6th 10-game chunk, and besides tracking just games 51-60, I’m also going to have a section for games 21-60, or roughly half a season’s worth of data.
What it boils down to, is that if you toss out the first games for everyone, is that the Isles are a ‘high-bubble’ team: Our record would put us in 8th place with 19-13-4 42 points, but only 3 points out of 4th place and 3 points ahead of 9th, and that factors in that we still have 4 games to play before hitting game 60, and have 1-3 games in hand on many teams.
So we ‘have’ been getting it done enough for half a season. The question is ‘can this team not only maintain the pace, but find a higher gear to overcome the disaster of games 1-20?’ We’d be going up against an insanely tough schedule.
Like Fox Mulder, I want to believe. The upside is that if we do make it in, we will be a hot team who beat top competition, essentially making us playoff-tested before the playoffs. We’d be in a position to put a scare into whoever we draw in round 1. I will hold out hope for that until the math says it’s over.
The reality is, though, that we will just miss. We lack the depth of those teams above us. A lot of our recent success is smoke, mirrors and a goalie on fire. We aren’t lighting the lamp nearly as much as we need to. We really are only a player or 2 away from being a solid playoff-lock, and for a change, those players don’t need to be Jesus and Chuck Norris.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
by Torgo on Feb 16, 2012 9:52 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Chuck Norris on skates.
We’d have to immediately rename the Atlantic Division as the new Norris Division, of course.
Anyway, yeah I agree with you, Torgo. All those games the teams above us have left against each other sure don’t help. Seven games total, so anywhere between 14 and 21 points to be earned by those four teams. That’s around 3 to 5 more points for each of those teams, if they roughly split the games.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
great work on this thread
Since Torgo’s brought up the segment since game #21 and the Isles’ success there, do you have the schedule data readily available to quickly calculate the strength of schedule during this stretch? I guess it would be much closer to 0.500 and might put their record (19-13-4) into perspective a little.
Also, maybe if you need ideas to do something similar at some point, what I’d find cool is a detailed breakdown in terms of how many games the various teams play against teams from certain segments of the standings, e.g. how many games each against teams with records <0.500, 0.501-0.600 and >0.600. But it’s great anyway, thanks for doing this.
I think i might be able to cobble that together from the power rankings data i keep.
I’ll check when i get home. I have to make a small correction to the above post, as well. Mark D pointed out that the 4% number i mentioned is actually 14% if you click on the coin flip method. I accidentally cited the weighted method based on teams records to date. Oops.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Toronto and Ottawa both won so it's back to an ugly 8 points out
I keep hope alive but I also stay realistic. It just doesn’t look good.
As for the hardest remaining schedule that is mostly the result of intra-division games. The Ranger games are always a toss up no matter what the standings, the Isles have had relative sucess against the Devils (not so much the Pens). Also, as we get close you might see teams already a near lock ‘take the night off’ against the lower teams. Throw in the back-up etc. The Isles also tend to play up to better teams so I don’t see the hard sched as a total negative.
No Sleep 'til....We Find Some Secondary Scoring
Man I detest the negative vibes around here
This is a fan site and fans are supposed to root FOR the team. Who cares about stats and probabilities? If the team can keep winning, they have a chance to get in the playoffs. We are getting to the last 20 games and the team still has a chance. They have one of the 26 best players in the league and a goalie on fire. For the first time in a long time, they will likely be playing games in March that mean something to THEM in the standings. But we still have posts here urging a trade of the current top goalie and a key forward. In other words, they want to pack it in on yet another season. Enough, please, enough, especially if getting in the playoffs means a shot at derailing the Rag wagon in the first round. Next year is for next year. How about trying to enjoy this year for a change.
by kennyboy13 on Feb 16, 2012 11:25 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Yes, yes, yes.
-Yes, I know that the Isles will need to stay hot for a period longer than they have in recent memory
-Yes, I know that they will have to accomplish this against against opponents disproportionately represented by the beasts of the Patrick Division
-Yes, I know that they will also have to count a whole bunch of other teams getting cold or at least not catching fire
-Yes, I know that this team is seriously flawed, especially with our best D-man out, and while many teams in our conference teams are flawed as well, our flaws are more severe for the most part.
I know all these things yet I still dream and root and hope for the playoffs, and playoffs are certainly not out of the realm of the possible. Because that it what a fan does.
SLOW CLAP!!!
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Feb 16, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I appreciate the enthusiasm.
But if you look above, you’ll see that I’m not actually urging any trades, at least not just yet. But I would understand why Garth would move someone, if he did. That question I posed at the end was what I figure is going through Snow’s mind. It’s the worst position a GM could be placed in at this time of year.
Anyway, a little more than a week from now, we’ll hopefully have a clearer picture
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
either way...
from the current situation, i still think PAP will re-sign at the end of the season and Nabby will finish the year with the team while the isles continue to fight towards a spot while playing competitive, fun hockey.
"Redemption? Sure. But in the end, he's just another dead rat in a garbage pail behind a Chinese restaurant."
Shifting hope
There’s always something to hope for. Thanks for the work you did for this article. Now that I see how slim the chances of getting to the playoffs are (even with stellar play from here on out), I will just shift my hopes to other things, such as Grabner to get going, nobody else to get injured, Neidermiser to get a couple of goals, and the team to finish strong again like they did last season. In turn that will give me hope for them to go farther next season and the cycle begins again lol. There’s still plenty to be hopeful about!
Don't throw it away just yet!
At the very least, wait until the trade deadline. That is, after all, when Garth has to decide how much hope he has left for the season.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
You Gotta Believe!
I can remember jumping out of my seat and screaming like an Idiot when Dubie made that last save to send the Isles to the Playoffs…I knew they’ed prob not make it out of the first round ( I’m a fan, but a realist too ), but man that was fun….I’d really like to see them make the playoffs and burst the Rags bubble…you gotta believe, still…
RDP for GM!
by JimFromStJames on Feb 16, 2012 12:36 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Yeah, me too...
And that’s with my Ranger fan dad and brother-in-law abusing me every step of the way. That sure would be sweet.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Great analysis
And I don’t consider this a negative. It is a realistic look at what lies ahead for the team. I knew that had a hard road schedule coming up ( 11 out of 15), but didn’t realize they had the toughest schedule remaining. It won’t be easy, but If the Mets can choke away a lead in September two years in a row, the Islanders can make the playoffs! 4% is better than 0%.
BTW, IF SnowWang is planning on moving PAP, the time to do it is near with Ruutu out for 3 weeks.
"This season is a serious misallocation of valuable hockey resources"- Saving Private Tavares
I just want to point out
that right now, the Isles are 11th in the conference and 23rd overall. We’re currently 8 points out o f 8th in the conference and a Playoff spot. Do not forget that we’re also only three points away from being 15th in the conference and 28th overall.
There’s not a lot of margin between finishing 9-11 in the conference and picking from the midrange leavings in the draft and finishing 15th in the conference and (hopefully getting lucky) and picking one of the top two or three.
The final outcome doesn’t change my impression of where this team will be next season.
"...I was here on Day 1 when Garth decided to do the rebuild, and I really want to see it through." -- Frans Nielsen
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Feb 16, 2012 1:32 PM EST reply actions
So in other words...
…if the Isles are not going to make the playoffs, then having a very tough schedule in March may be a blessing rather than a curse. It could allow Isles to play very well and still end up with the 3rd or 4th overall pick in the draft, which would give Garth his pick of a few very good defensemen. Is this along the lines that you are thinking?
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 16, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ummmmmm
NO, I would NEVER think that.
"...I was here on Day 1 when Garth decided to do the rebuild, and I really want to see it through." -- Frans Nielsen
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Feb 16, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
that fn b2b with toronto
where we got 0 pp chances is feeling like it may be a solid reason we dont make it… letting them get + 3 points on us… if we simply split that series we’re 4 back of them with 2 in hand…
These comments crawl up from the depths of the deepest Chasm of Saar
by bob l on Feb 16, 2012 1:36 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Thanks so much!
Appreciate the effort behind crunching the numbers. I reamain…..obliviously optimistic!
"The Long Island Electric Company will come full voltage again".
by HeyGoalieGoalieDave on Feb 16, 2012 3:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I believe that tops "Cautiously Optimistic"
Well played, Sir!
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 16, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
