P.A. Parenteau Contract Talkus Interruptus; NHL Power Rankings
The mid-day news update -- already a topic of discussion here and even garnering a comment-heavy FanPost -- was Client P.A. Parenteau's twitterific agent Alan Walsh telling TSN's Darren Dreger ... well what was it exactly? Dreger summarizes it like this:
Walsh and his client don't believe it is appropriate to pursue contract discussions at this time, but will listen if the Islanders are eager to negotiate.
That is not an absolute "shelving until after season's end," as the TSN headline stipulates, but rather a negotiating tactic. More specifically, Walsh emailed Dreger in part:
"Now is the time to play hockey, not to discuss or focus on contracts. When the season is over, I'm sure both parties will work diligently towards an agreement."
Unspoken: But of course if the Islanders offer what we want we'll sign tomorrow.
This close to the Game of Chicken's fish-or-cut-bait point, I get it. Few want to make life-changing decisions under duress. (And in fact, psychologists strongly recommend against it.)
The funny thing is, the closer the Islanders get to a playoff position, the more Walsh can call the Islanders' bluff here -- as it would be all the more deflating to trade him with 8th place in sight. Yet as often discussed here, a low-budget team should either sign Parenteau now or trade him at the deadline. Unlikely playoff push or not, the Islanders have to treat the deadline with an eye on the future. The closer Parenteau gets to free agency, the greater the odds he tries to field inflated offers on the open market.
Which means the question for the next two weeks is: Who flinches first? The Islanders (Snow), or Parenteau (Walsh)? I interpret from this public declaration of negotiation-couched-in-"hockey" one or both of the following:
- Walsh/Parenteau have found the Isles parameters thus far unsatisfying, to the point they're willing to accept a trade, or/and
- They think the Isles playoff push is so real that Snow dare not deal one of his best wingers in the middle of it, for fear of an internal or external PR hit.
It's going to be a fascinating climax. Prediction: Parenteau shall be King.
Media NHL Power Rankings Survey
Here is our weekly roundup of media rankings and commentary, which were compiled before last night's regulation win in Winnipeg.
| Outlet | Rank | Last Week | Their Commentary |
| CBSSports | 26 | 23 |
Great move to lock up Frans Nielsen, an underrated and extremely valuable part of their young core. |
| THN (Proteau) |
25 | 24 |
Evgeni Nabokov is 6-3-0 with a 1.58 goals-against average and .949 save percentage in his past nine games |
|
ESPN (LeBrun) |
23 | 23 | That was a gut-wrenching loss to Florida on Sunday afternoon. They needed to keep it going, especially at home. |
| Sportsnet | 29 | 24 | As the Islanders continue their losing ways, dropping home games to Florida and Montreal last week, will Evgeni Nabokov get traded before deadline? |
|
TSN (Cullen) |
17 | 16 | The Isles sit eight points out of a playoff spot, but could go right up until the deadline before making any decisions on whether they are buyers or sellers. They have seven games before the deadline, including two against eighth-place Ottawa and three against teams outside of playoff spots. |
| Fox | 24 |
24 | The Isles have been playing better despite only one regulation victory in their past 10 games entering this week. Nino Niederreiter (32 games, one goal, no assists, minus-17 through Sunday) has been among the more disappointing of the league’s highly regarded rookies |
| Average |
24 |
22.3 |
"Won't you gentlemen have a Pepsi?" |
For reference, here is last week's power rankings post.
Real Power Rankings
And now on to our weekly "real" power rankings courtesy of Mike, or ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles (who is the one you'll find tirelessly compiling FIG picks in the game thread), who conceived and delivers these week after week. They are calculated in true "power ranking" fashion -- i.e. how well teams fare based on their opponents' records.
These reflect figures through Monday's games. The Islanders actually dropped back one since last week, to 25th, but it's Anaheim who is rising with their recent hot play, where a once-gold-lottery-bound team may end up passing the cloud of teams at the bottom of the Eastern Conference (in the overall standings).
| W | L | OTL | Pts | Pct | PWR | ||
| 1 | NSFW | 36 | 13 | 5 | 77 | 0.713 | 2153 |
| 2 | St. Louis | 34 | 14 | 7 | 75 | 0.682 | 2080 |
| 3 | Detroit | 38 | 17 | 2 | 78 | 0.684 | 2044 |
| 4 | Vancouver | 35 | 15 | 6 | 76 | 0.679 | 2021 |
| 5 | Boston | 34 | 17 | 2 | 70 | 0.660 | 1943 |
| 6 | San Jose | 31 | 17 | 6 | 68 | 0.630 | 1858 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 32 | 19 | 5 | 69 | 0.616 | 1831 |
| 8 | Nashville | 32 | 18 | 6 | 70 | 0.625 | 1822 |
| 9 | Philadelphia | 31 | 18 | 7 | 69 | 0.616 | 1820 |
| 10 | New Jersey | 31 | 20 | 4 | 66 | 0.600 | 1793 |
| 11 | Florida | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 | 0.591 | 1768 |
| 12 | Los Angeles | 27 | 19 | 11 | 65 | 0.570 | 1730 |
| 13 | Chicago | 29 | 20 | 7 | 65 | 0.580 | 1692 |
| 14 | Phoenix | 27 | 21 | 9 | 63 | 0.553 | 1681 |
| 15 | Ottawa | 28 | 22 | 8 | 64 | 0.552 | 1641 |
| 16 | Toronto | 28 | 22 | 6 | 62 | 0.554 | 1636 |
| 17 | Washington | 28 | 23 | 5 | 61 | 0.545 | 1631 |
| 18 | Calgary | 26 | 22 | 8 | 60 | 0.536 | 1618 |
| 19 | Colorado | 28 | 25 | 4 | 60 | 0.526 | 1617 |
| 20 | Minnesota | 25 | 22 | 8 | 58 | 0.527 | 1602 |
| 21 | Dallas | 28 | 24 | 3 | 59 | 0.536 | 1567 |
| 22 | Winnipeg | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 | 0.509 | 1507 |
| 23 | Montreal | 23 | 25 | 9 | 55 | 0.482 | 1497 |
| 24 | Anaheim | 22 | 24 | 9 | 53 | 0.482 | 1469 |
| 25 | NY Islanders | 23 | 24 | 8 | 54 | 0.491 | 1460 |
| 26 | Tampa Bay | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 | 0.491 | 1459 |
| 27 | Buffalo | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 | 0.491 | 1455 |
| 28 | Carolina | 21 | 25 | 11 | 53 | 0.465 | 1426 |
| 29 | Edmonton | 22 | 28 | 5 | 49 | 0.445 | 1404 |
| 30 | Columbus | 16 | 34 | 6 | 38 | 0.339 | 1026 |
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Comments
I like P.A.,
he’s valuable, he’s not a 1 year wonder and I want him to stay, but if his demands are out of line, then see if they can move him for a d-man or a 2nd line center….orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr put him in a package for Rick Nash (ok, I gotta get better meds)
by Staten Islander on Feb 15, 2012 4:24 PM EST reply actions
PAP Runs the Risk of Asking for Too Much With an Expiring CBA
If the new CBA reduces the salary cap, PAP might find himself priced out on any team he would want to play for, and he might wind up having to take the same or less than the Islanders are offering now just to play on another lousy team with available cap space.
that is awesome
Definitely a poster at Lighthouse Hockey until 2015, then maybe somewhere else.
It's cool i guess.
They read LHHockey and it made the front page. So it’s not super surprising. .
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Pretty cool G-man...
I went back and read through the thread again. While reading it, I had this thought.
The man who is going to give the Islanders a high draft pick or prospect for Nabokov has probably been around the game for longer than you or I have been alive.
So the first thing he’ll do is go to his pro scouting department, and send a scout out to see Nabby work live. He’ll look at how he cuts off his angles, how sharp his reflexes are, his puck handling decisions, his focus, and probably a few dozen things I can’t even think of.
And when he gets his report back I’d be a slave to advanced stats if the word “lucky” was on that report.
So, yeah, it’s nice to see a statistical analysis of why YOU would trade Nabby… but I’m guessing it doesn’t mean jack shit as to why somebody would want him. remember, we claimed off waivers after detroit signed him… and he was FAR FROM LUCKY in the KHL.
Watch the games, see what the guy does… that’s the true value in the man.
It’s funny… if you’re right, the stats were right. If you’re wrong, you just read the stats wrong. I wonder if the stats told you that Moulson was LUCKY to even be getting an NHL paycheck based on his 2006-08 performance.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
(FWIW, Moulson's AHL stats made his shooting % seem sustainable)
but I would’ve told you after 1 year that “We need more data” to know if it was sustainable (a sign of true talent) or mainly luck driven.
:-P
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Give P.A what he wants
within reason.. He is a guy that produces & will continue to produce in the future I think if we want to build something we need to keep our best players & I think he’s one of them.
3 Teams 3 Different Sports Same Torture!!!
by Kung Fu Panda 48 on Feb 15, 2012 4:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions
For those wondering about playoff chances
This site is very useful. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/NYIslanders.html
UVa Student. Twitter: @ericdavidmorris
Montreal has a 13% chance but we have a 4%?
Please….they’re done.
You should've seen her face. It was the exact same look my father gave me when I told him I wanted to be a ventriloquist.
the numbers must account for favorable officiating
Definitely a poster at Lighthouse Hockey until 2015, then maybe somewhere else.
by ArsenalLI on Feb 15, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 10 recs
That and the Isles play in the toughest division in the league...with 10 (I think) more games to play against said division.
It’s a tough road ahead.
Not saying we’re toast, but we’ve got a tough road ahead.
I'm NOT a jinx!
by BrassBonanza10 on Feb 16, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The weighted rankings take schedule strength into account
which is why Montreal is rated as having a better chance despite having a poorer record. If you click “50/50” on the upper left side of the screen you get the percentages based on each game being an even chance as a win or loss.
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Feb 15, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Also goal differential.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Montreal has a -2 GD. We have -26.
In other words, Montreal should be a True .500 team. Our goal differential suggests we’re terrible.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
isn't our goal differential a bit misleading due to all the 3 minute left goalie pulls?
Definitely a poster at Lighthouse Hockey until 2015, then maybe somewhere else.
Not really.
We’re -34 in 5 on 5 (no ENG goals). 8 on Special teams. Total=26.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
I think that has to do with strength of remaining schedule
Montreal’s remaining schedule is much easier than ours.
"...I was here on Day 1 when Garth decided to do the rebuild, and I really want to see it through." -- Frans Nielsen
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Feb 15, 2012 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
The odds are based on...
… taking the remaining schedule and playing it out thousands of times. Each game is weighted equally (coin-flip, with a certain percentage getting Bettman Bonus Points based on historical data). So it’s not like actual advanced statistic based formulas, and therefore is not perfect.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
(But that being said....
… the point of the site is to show whether a team has any chance at all or not, not so much the percentages themselves).
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Just statistics and numbers.
UVa Student. Twitter: @ericdavidmorris
by edavidmorris on Feb 15, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
But which are far more objective than your biased eyes.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 15, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I know, just funny to me.
Stats don’t mean anything more than a snapshot of what has already happened (much to AP77’s point below). Statistics when combined with a human element, become absolutely meaningless in regards to forecasting, as it becomes to unpredictable, especially over time. I’ve been trying to forecast market returns and economic shifts, as per my job, for the past few years using a multitude of economic statistics, behavioral finance concepts, while trying to mix technical trading rules at the same time. Years of studying this crap has gotten me to the point of being able to forecast interest rates and GDP growth to ~30% accuracy. As someone who works with stats all day long, I tend to rely more on heuristics and fundamental skills vs. “unbiased indicators” (which are usually biased to a sense anyways), as you can usually develop a better feel for things that way. Hence, why I look at a monte carlo simulation of hockey and realize that its probably a simplistic approach that doesn’t take in to account factors beyond W/L. Momentum should have its own weight, if they’re going to look at GD and other measures. Garbage in, Garbage out haha.
You should've seen her face. It was the exact same look my father gave me when I told him I wanted to be a ventriloquist.
by mikefromVA on Feb 15, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Pfft
Whatever — stats are just records of things that happened in the past that can be used to predict what may happen in the future. I wouldn’t bother with them.
=d
by AP77 on Feb 15, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
After every game percentages change.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
But not by much
We’ve been between 1% and 5% for about a month. It can jump in extremes toward the end of the season, but right now it’s hard to budge it too much either way.
We've made up 4 pts in the standing in a quick period time it seems...
Wasnt that long ago when we were 10 pts out…Getting closer…
ANY GIVEN NIGHT...
three words that only come to mind when predicting an outcome.
"Redemption? Sure. But in the end, he's just another dead rat in a garbage pail behind a Chinese restaurant."
I was going to post about this...
Love it when a media outlet takes a couple of losses as the norm, but disregards the winning after the break.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
"This thing of ours".
KO, Mouls, Frans, and JT all signed here because they want to be part of this “thing of ours”…I could be wrong but Paps seems a little less loyal to this team than the names listed above..At least that’s what I get from his agents comments….The guys I listed appreciate the opportunity the Isles gave them that no other team would give them and that is to play top line minutes…To say that this isn’t a time to talk about contracts is ludicrous…What is he the GM of the NY Yankees? No, hes a selfish agent. I want Paps if he wants us. But if all he cares about is the $$$ then ship his ass out and get a top D-man for him…
"get a top d-man for him"....how? Which d-man?
Maybe the Kings would deal Jack Johnson for him but even that is a long shot because PA is a UFA. You’re not getting a top d-man for a pending UFA.
Also, Jack Johnson is only a top D man if you're the opposing team
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Feb 15, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
lol, rec'd.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I hear ya..
I want Nabby to stay unless we can get a good trade which is unlikely as well…So maybe package them together? idk
I want both to stay…I just don’t see that desire to stay like you saw from the others…
Let's not jump to conclusions
just because they’re negotiating. I can imagine that PAP understands that the chemistry is working well on the Islanders and might not somewhere else. His memory is surely longer than a year and a half.
It is Diduck.
by Paumanok on Feb 15, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is also agent speak.
PAP had a great game last night so the agent spoke today. Coincidence? If he slumps for a week, the agent says nothing publicly and lets Snow know that he is open for talks.
Not only spoke today, but also
- Called PAP the “Isles sniper” after his two-goal game
- asked on Twitter last night for nicknames for Parenteau
The guy works Twitter as if it will work fans into a frenzy and somehow change the GM’s mind. Whatever tool you can find, I guess.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
What he's creating is...
THE PARENTAU TRAP
![]()
This is where agent tries to get a benchmark through the press, so he knows where to set the price in July. This was tried successfully in 2007 by Jason Blake… see how that worked out for both parties.
Garth, YOU set the PRICE, and the deadline(hopefully FRIDAY), and if PA doesn’t sign then get something for him. If he signs somewhere else it just wasn’t meant to be anyway… and all you’ll get for the return you didn’t accept is 25 games f PA Parentau.
That being said, I hope they sign PA for 3 more years.
PS: Isn’t it great not having Botta saying, “Parentau loves Long Island, and wants to be part of this team” every day in his blog… #HowILostMyCreds
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
by JPinVA on Feb 15, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Uh....Blake got a pretty good deal
Of course the Blake situation was different – the Isles had 62 points in 57 games on 2/15/2007, meaning they were a good deal closer to the playoffs.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
It would have been harder...
for Snow to trade blake in feb 2007. I certainly didn’t want him to do it, so I’m not putting him down for either not trading blake, or trading for Smyth. But I will use that as an example of arguing value in the moment vs the future.
At that point he probably didn’t realize that the team that got them to the playoffs would all be gone, and they’d have to serve a year in limbo until they started the rebuild.
Now… that is all a reality set in stone. So, you have to start extending expiring assets early, or selling them for what-ever you can get. PAP might fetch a nice price.
Most likely nothing happens, and we are left wondering what went on behind the scenes. especially if they don’t make the playoffs, and PAP leaves in July.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
by JPinVA on Feb 16, 2012 8:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
POINT BLANK EXCLUSIVE: Long Island Love It and Leave It - How Garth Snow and Charles Wang are driving players away
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Feb 15, 2012 9:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 4 recs
SNOW AND WANG CRUSH PAP'S DREAMS.
Ryan Suter and Shea Weber couldn’t be reached for comment, but you know after how they’re treating Pierre Alexander there’s no way they would want to sign here.
You are joking, right?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 16, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure they are. :-)
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 17, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't read too deeply into Walsh's comments.
He knows his client is hot. He knows his client can grab big money based on his performance. He is doing what he must through the media. Few players (especially ones with potentially breakout seasons like PAP) are going to say “I’m happy just getting the opportunity to play, so I’ll take anything to keep it up.”
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
I never said that Pap should say these words...
"I’m happy just getting the opportunity to play, so I’ll take anything to keep it up."
Thats rediculous…he can be a pro and say the right things like Frans and JT..
Hasn't he already said the right things about wanting to remain with the team?
These words in this post are his agent’s.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Feb 16, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's an agent's job to be self-interested
Player: first (ideally)
Agent: second
Team: just 1 of 30.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
player: first
Walsh’s mission statement at the top of his twitter page
To protect clients rights, promote their interests and maximize their compensation
here’s some recent “maximizing compensation” deals for other Octagon clients in years and dollars:
Giroux 3 yrs/$11.250m
2.75 / 3.5 / 5m (cap $3.75)
David Krejci 3 yrs $15.75m
3 yrs at $5.25m
Brassard 4 yrs/$12.8m
2.8 / 3 / 3.3 / 3.7 (cap $3.2)
RJ Umberger 5 yrs $23m
5 / 4 years @ 4.5 (cap $4.6)
David Booth 6 yrs/$25.5m
3.5 / 3.75 / 3yrs @ 4.5 / 4.75 (cap $4.25)
Milan Michalek 6 yrs $26m
3 / 3.5 / 4.25 / 4.5 / 4.75 / 6 (cap $4.333)
How many of those guys were RFAs when signed?
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
just Giroux and Brassard
i included the capgeek link on each players name.
a couple guys have struck deals at the end of RFA.
Oddly, Parenteau isn’t included in the client list of Forwards so there could be a few more than what the Octagon site says. Walsh might want to add his photo to the list since he’s supposed to be pumping his tires.
They have a nice list of goalies as clients.
Nice list
Thanks for posting that.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Patrick Kane - tradeable for a goalie?
This PuckDaddy article covers that topic. Discuss.
Success was survival and, kid, it still is
I kane't imagine that.
It is Diduck.
by Paumanok on Feb 15, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Kane would like it on Long Island
There aren’t that many cab drivers out there.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Feb 15, 2012 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
I’ll have what she’s having.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 15, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Are the Islanders giving up too much?
by Metzfan22 on Feb 15, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You do realize you just offered a rental forward and a rental goalie for arguably the best d-man in the NHL signed for 10yrs and a top line o-talent signed for another 3yrs?
Kane>PAP rental
Kane>PAP rental + Nabby rental
Keith>Kane + PAP rental + Nabby rental. lol
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
sarcasm font, Ozzy =D
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
DOH. I'm an idiot.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I was thinking
Nabby, PAP and Moteau, for Kane, Keith and Seabrook. What? It’s my brain.
Thou shalt not recognize false enemies, they are the Rangers, you shall have no other enemies before them.
AND "Thank you Dale Tallon"
by since70too on Feb 15, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You couldn't get
Kane or Keith alone for PAP + Nabby. We’d need either a #1 or a Strome in addition to make that happen.
by afrosupreme on Feb 15, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Done
But Dale Tallon isn’t Chicago’s G.M. anymore.
Thou shalt not recognize false enemies, they are the Rangers, you shall have no other enemies before them.
AND "Thank you Dale Tallon"
Think of a comparable as the Mike Fisher trade to the Preds.
Not the best example because Kane is signed for 1 more year then Fisher was at the time of the trade, and Kane is a better offensive player then Fisher is a 2-way forward.
Preds traded a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder for Fisher as a “take what we can get trade”(with possible Carrie Underwood influencing Fisher’s want to go to destination), so I’d expect at least 2 1sts for Kane, or similar value. It should take PAP + Nabby + 1st rounder just to get them thinking because Kane is that good and signed 3yrs more after this one, and PAP/Nabby are just rentals.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
That's different
Nashville has been aggressive trading high picks for a playoff chance. Remember when they got Brendan Witt? We have no one they’d want that badly but if they’re snooping around, they’re a good place to open the bidding.
I don't think it's a perfect comparison, but it's pretty much the closest thing we got if we wanna talk recent "top 6" forwards signed for multiple years traded.
I don’t think at all that a 1st and 2nd for fisher is a big overpayment, I don’t even think it’s an overpayment given him signed for those extra years. It was just a way to try and gauge Kane’s theoretical trade value.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I'm interested. Go on.
It would have to be a lot more than Nabokov for Chicago to do it, but we can work around that.
A tweet that got me thinking...then some other possible things
StanleyCupofChowder @cupofchowdah
presented without context for your discussion pleasure: I’d be okay with Dougie Hamilton getting traded.
Then this article in which the Bruins may need a replacement for Horton due to concussion:
http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/15/bs-might-need-to-find-a-replacement-for-horton/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Horton (17G, 15A) has missed the last eight games, a stretch that’s seen the B’s go 3-5-0 and get blanked three times. His absence isn’t the only explanation for the team’s mini-slump, but it hasn’t helped.
Acquiring a player who could step in for Horton, if necessary, won’t be easy for Chiarelli.
Frankly, I’d probably do PAP or even KO for Hamilton in a heartbeat. He’s absolutely tearing it up for Niagra, and Boston kind of has their D set for a while. He’s obviously also a teammate of Strome and cost controlled for years. (Also why Boston may not give him up)
Point being, I’m in the camp that Walsh is posturing, but in doing so is damaging PA’s trade value, increasing his ability to get toward FA status (figuring Snow won’t be able to get good value and will be forced to field a high offer) and generally putting things in print that you wouldn’t figure would get there unless there was a problem. Considering that PA kind of got the ball rolling with the talk of a contract, this is kind of troubling to me.
PA is vastly different than Nabby. He is older, plays a position with less leverage, and less likely to fetch a steep price. Holding on to him and losing him to FA won’t be nearly as damaging as losing out on the loot if you let PA go.
If this is in fact the case (that he doesn’t want to negotiate until the off season), you simply must move him. A place I never considered was Boston because they had been insane, but this recent mini-slump while Horton’s been out of the lineup may be a nice bargaining chip.
Neil Smith @bigdealneil94 @KeithLHHockey @craigjbutton hey keith GFY
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
You can have my EZPass. It works on the Mass Pike, too.
Success was survival and, kid, it still is
by IslesFanInNJ on Feb 15, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
I say we rent a Lighthouse Party Bus and get hammered. PAP is our guest the way there, and Dougie is our guest on the way back.
by Metzfan22 on Feb 15, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Question about Hamilton
What’s his flow like? Because whoever they get for PAP has to be able to fill his role on the team’s Flow Chart. I’d hate to see them lose their edge on the THS (team hair standings)
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Feb 15, 2012 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Both of the MMs (Martin and Moulson) are primary players as far as the flow chart goes.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 15, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think it'd take more then just PAP because Hamilton was such a draft pick and PAP would only be a rental.
Okposo straight up might do it, and would make sense because he could fill-in for Horton as a “power forward type” and chip in some goals, especially with Krejci centering him. Or they could use Okposo on a checking line next to bergeron if they want and he’ll still score goals.
I don’t know how much they are valuing Hamilton though. It could very well take Okposo + a pick/prospect. And would highly likely take PAP + pick(s)/prospect(s) or maybe even + a d-man???
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Okposo straight up might do it, and would make sense because he could fill-in for Horton as a "power forward type" and chip in some goals, especially with Krejci centering him. Or they could use Okposo on a checking line next to bergeron if they want and he’ll still score goals.
Okposo is playing with Tavares, one of the best players in the game, and yet still can’t score any goals.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
The last time Okposo played half a season with Tavares he scored 20goals.
And he has had “okposto sydrome” away from JT, so I wouldn’t be one ounce surprised if Okposo netted 25-30goals on a Krejci/Lucic line.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
KO only scored 19 goals.
And B. he scored 19 goals on 7.6% shooting. That is NOT a goal scorer.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Okposo is not a goal scorer.
We have always hoped he would be, but he isn’t. He’s a power forward who may pot 20 goals once in a while. He’s a big body who helps the forecheck. That’s it. Any discussion of Okposo’s goal scoring ability is missing the point with him.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
But
He had that season once where he theoretically could've gotten 20 goals.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
Snow lied.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Feb 16, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Correct
He does not need to be a 30 goal first line scorer. This rebuild is not about accumulating the most goal scorers possible. It is about accumulating all of the right pieces to become a perrenial Stanley Cup Contender.
KO has the talent to be one of those pieces and he should be an Islander for a long time.
I have a lot of faith in Okposo's shot. He has talent, he netted 19goals in his rookie year in college, and at times he's showed he has a great shot.
He was 21 when he shot at 7.6% in his 1st year against top 6 competition and with middle of the pack/average team o-zone starts. He’s shooting at 10.9% this year so far, and his “simulated” full season goals/82gms this year is good enough for 18goals while playing on the 2nd PP unit. I don’t think it’s a question of “if” Okposo will have multiple 20goal seasons in his NHL career, just when imo. I also think if he continues to develop a “driving to the net” game or even just an in front of the net cleanup game, he can definitely do it.
I’m sure you’ve seen his shot:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQz68zd6Z9Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izSkZVivbzg
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I still have hope for KO...
These guys are acting like we must be delusional to think he still has allot more to give…
I'd definitley send PAP and a pick...
if it’s clear you can’t resign him.
Okposo straight up, would be one of those deals that would make Snow lose sleep for three of four years. That could be how long it takes Hamilton to be as valuable as Okposo is for this club.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
Could be weird
but I would have to think that KO is replaceable by either Strome or Nino in the next couple of years if not by a Kirill, Martin or Ullstrom.
I always feel like hard board work and defensive tenacity can be taught…KO doesn’t have that knack for the net. And lately, he hasn’t really been around it or mixing it up that physically either.
He had it for a few weeks there, but it fell apart again. (not that anyone is necessarily lighting it up, but man does he disappear a bit physically sometimes).
19 goals isn’t a ton playing on a line with JT. (this 19 goal thing is starting to sound like DP’s all-star season when we refer to it…once upon a time). I’m not holding out a lot of hope for him to remain a 1st liner…maybe not even a second. So if theycan land a potential 1st pairing D, I’d go for it.
Neil Smith @bigdealneil94 @KeithLHHockey @craigjbutton hey keith GFY
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
He got hurt...
Before he got hurt he was awesome…I see no reason to ignore the fact that he potted 19 when he was in his 2nd season or first full season… He used to be an animal on the puck game in and game out under Gordon. What does that mean? He has has it in him. That’s what I think. Its just so frustrating to see him disappear physically like he has this year. I hope these injuries, the concussion, and the injury that took him out for half a season will not ruin his potential. I don’t think it will and he will get it together. I don’t expect his shooting % to get that high tho. He is not a sniper. That’s why he needs to go to the dirty areas of which he is sometimes reluctant to do it seems…I do think Gordon knew how to push KO’s buttons unless it was the system that was conducive to KO’s strengths which is skating and fore-checking…You guys are giving up on the guy to easily, I think…But we all have opinions…You know what they say about opinions…:)
And I think his shooting % thing will be a problem
for goals especially. I mean, he’s playing on a line with Moulson who’s like 15% and JT who is probably going to round out to a 12-14% guy. So, KO’s shot attempts have gone down. He’s not going to hit that 249 again…at the pace he’s on this season, it would take him about 115 games to get to 250.
But agreed, the less physical disappearing KO is the frustrating part. I’m not necessarily giving up on him…he can obviously be a very productive player. However, I don’t think he’s a first line talent except in emergency situations. I think he does carry that mystique of power forward though, and there is always a hope/need for that, so if you can make a good deal for him, you should.
I don’t think the Isles will mind you…they just signed him to a 5 year deal and gave him a letter, so they probably won’t…Personally, I’d consider it.
Neil Smith @bigdealneil94 @KeithLHHockey @craigjbutton hey keith GFY
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Feb 15, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
I think he can work on a first line, and I sure hope he returns to some consistency (of work and effort, not production…though that’d be nice too), but he’s not one of those “gotta have here” first line pieces.
I’d definitely bump him for a high-quality D-man. But not, as some asshat Twitter-ized, for goaltender Ben Bishop.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Its sad hearing Isles fans talking about getting rid became one of my favorite players...
1 tough season isnt gonna make me turn on the guy…
I like him a lot
I want him to be that player we’ve seen in him at his better moments.
But you know, I was even ready for Frans to leave if he didn’t sign on the line.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Possibly
If Okposo becomes a 15-20 goal, 50-pointish guy, that’s a credible second-liner. In 2009-2010, KO’s 52 points was tied for 87th, out of 764 skaters with points. Remove the five defensemen who bettered 52 points, and that’s 82 forwards. There are 90 top-liners, so that isn’t all that bad.
Believe me, I understand how frustrating that sounds. In the NHL I grew up with, 50 points was thought of as passable performance. In 1983 (to grab a random year), the 87th-best scorer in the league happened to be another Islander, Bob Bourne. He had 62 points. Removing defensemen brings Bourne up to 74th, with 63 forwards on top lines. Relatively speaking, Bourne’s scoring output was, arguably, slightly worse.
(At 52 points that season were four players: Dan Daoust, Doug Halward, Dale McCourt, and Mark Tardif, tied for 116th out of 537 point-scorers.)
Back then, there were more goals per game spread out over fewer teams and players. Sometimes I tend to think of guys in that .667-.750 PPG average (about 55-62 points) as merely OK players because every team had a bunch of them. Now, though, only the top-scoring teams boast that kind of depth. Since the lockout, even top-five offenses rarely have more than four 50-point forwards. (The 2006-07 Sabres had seven, which is the most I could find on one team. Detroit had six plus two defensemen in ’05-06. The 09-10 Caps, who scored a post-lockout-best 318 goals, had five plus Mike Green.)
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
Oh absolutely, I'm aware of the scoring differences
it’s just the thought of team need vs. team strength. Currently, there really isn’t a lot of strong D possibilities while there are replacement parts at forward coming up (obviously not NHL tested or ready necessarily). Just the idea of “you have to give to get”.
I am not advocating doing it just to do it…I’d do it for the right player…KO is an important piece to this team right now, and can be a beast.
Neil Smith @bigdealneil94 @KeithLHHockey @craigjbutton hey keith GFY
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
If you're Bahston
Would you trade Hamilton for PAP and a #2?
It depends
In certain situations, yes. For instance if I think I am a scoring forward away from a cup or that Horton is going to be tough to replace from within and PAP can help that and get a deep playoff run for the team.
But definitely not just for shits and giggles…only if I thought it would be a deep playoff run or a cup. Theoretically, Hamilton can sit in their system for years. They have cap space, people will sign there, and they have tradeable assets that they won’t need for a few years. They can play for “win now”, so it’s certainly not like they have to take the Islanders mentality toward trades and rebuilds when they consider roster moves.
PAP doesn’t seem very Bruin-y though.
I could only imagine trading KO over there and once he puts the black on, he turns into what everyone wanted him to be…all Lucic -like.
Neil Smith @bigdealneil94 @KeithLHHockey @craigjbutton hey keith GFY
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Feb 15, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
I think PAP is more Bruinish...
In that he works where-ever you put him. PAP makes his linemates better. Kyle is an upgrade if the line lacked a puck retention specialist… but PAP can get first liners the puck, or he can get fourth liners the puck while playing each role effectively… because he sees the ice better.
The only reason I think Kyle is more valuable to the Islanders right now, is because he’s locked up, and he is in a category of player that are not in abundance in their system. Strome might be scheduled to replace PAP already if they can’t re-sign him. Kabanov is the next RH F that would have top six potential… and it will be a long time (IMO) before Kabanov makes people forget Kyle Okposo.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
That's actually a realistic deal.
It’s debatable if the Isles do it though.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
might need to take a player from Boston
according to Capgeek, Bruins Cap Hits is estimated at $55,342,143 on 15 contracts leaving GM with projected Cap Space of $8,957,857 to re-sign
3 RFA’s
Tuukka Rask, Benoit Pouliot, Andrew Bodnarchuk
+/-
6 UFA’s
Chris Kelly, Greg Campbell, Daniel Paille, Shawn Thornton, Joe Corvo and Hennessey
then add PAP cap hit of ~$3.5 to ~$4.5m
If Hamilton makes the team, his ELC cap hit is $1.525m
Campbell isn't worth taking since his dad's influence on games seems to have waned.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Feb 16, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bruins may have lost another forward last night
Injury sends Peverley back to Boston
Peverley was one of their shootout specialists so PAP could fill in nicely, esp with Hortorn also out.
If the Bruins were interested in Moulson before he re-signed, maybe they would like some PA in their lineup. Send Dougie Hamilton on down to the Island. We’ll have room for him.
Hate to see PAP go..
but ya can’t let him go for nothing.
He knows what the isles need to do. If he wants to stay, now;s the time to get it done. I’m comfortable with KO on the top line.. he knows we are too. He needs to decide if he wants to be an islander.
This is part of the rebuild process. He won’t be the last of players we planned on having traded away for a better of the team.
by TA on Feb 15, 2012 5:34 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Now is not the time.
Anytime before July 1st is the time. “Now” is an arbitrary point in the season where the team could win big or falter.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
Yeah, but,
anything after the trade deadline and youre pretty much just trading for the right to negotiate. The team isn’t getting PAP to help their team win. Wait until the offseason and his value goes from a nice return to a 3rd rounder.
by TA on Feb 15, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
You do realize PAP's value then drops from a likely 1st rounder to a 5th/6th rounder?
All for what? A 5% chance of making the playoffs?
Win big? Please don’t tell me you think this team as it sits could win a cup when you say that.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Never did tell you anything about a cup.
If there is a trade out there, then Garth should go for it, but treating the situation as now or we’re completely fucked seems silly to me. If Snow doesn’t trade PA it might mean he is resigning, or it might mean a serious assist machine is going to win big on the market while the Isles lose. It is entirely silly to assume that PA is not part of the future, and to trade him for the sake of it because you are afraid Garth won’t be able to resign him is equally silly.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Feb 16, 2012 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
I was asking what you meant by win big.
The thing is “If Snow doesn’t trade PA it might mean he is resigning him” is a highly questionable statement. PA’s said he wants term, PA’s agent has said Snow know’s what we want. Snow “knows” what he needs to do to resign PAP. He either chooses to do it and resign PAP before the deadline, or should trade PAP. This isn’t a question of “if” PA should be part of the future, this is a question of if we will or won’t resign PAP. And since Garth has already done some talks and negotiations with PA/his-agent, he knows what he needs to do to resign PAP. Garth has to choose to either pay PAP what he wants/what it would take or move him for what you can before the trade deadline.
I really don’t understand “to trade him for the sake of it because you are afraid Garth won’t be able to resign him is equally silly”??? What do you think Garth has been doing in the contract negotiations? Garth knows what he has to do to resign him, and by no means is trading him away “for the sake of it”, it would be trading away a valuable expiring contract for a great return instead of losing him for nothing at free agency. It’s common sense to approach the situation that way, especially since we have a “5%” chance at the playoffs this year.
There is no “if Snow keeps PAP he is likely gonna resign him” because he has the ability to do it now and knows what PAP wants, and letting PAP hit July 1st without a contract is gonna let him go to whatever team is offerring him $4mil+/yr “longterm”. It’s as simple as give PAP what he wants or move him for a good draft pick/prospect.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Three questions
What was the offer that Garth had for Ehrhoff this past summer?
Is Ehrhoff a more valuable player in the NHL than Parenteau?
Does it make more sense for Isles to overspend on other teams’ UFAs than to overspend on re-signing their own UFAs?
(I know that if Parenteau was a defenseman, instead, it would be a different story.)
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 15, 2012 5:59 PM EST reply actions
Ehrhoff was different because D was a big weakness for us(and still is).
Ehrhoff was overrated, but it is what it is. PAP is obviously more valuable now and likely over the course of the next couple years then Ehrhoff is to a team. Thing is, PAP wants to be signed till he’s 34, and who knows how good he’ll be then. He does play a rambunctious style that could lead to injuries. Skating is a lot of his game and skaters do slow down over time, thus potentially making him decline “more drastic” with age then say a Moulson or Holmstrom type player. And we obviously have a lot of forward prospects coming up in the next couple years: Strome/Nino are top 6 talents, Nelson is a should be top 9 forward, and then we have a group of 5-10 players that could be anything to ahl depth guys to nhl bottom 6ers (or in some cases, potential top 6ers: Kabanov, say Lee possibly, etc).
I don’t think overpaying is the issue here, I think it’s all about the number of years. Could garth say give PAP 3yrs@4mil/yr? Sure, could garth give PAP 5yrs@4mil/yr? Yes, but it’s a much different shellng out that kind of money into PAP’s “declining years” and not knowing how our prospects pan out, other needs with that money could be, it really doesn’t make sense to give him so much guaranteed money till that age.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
I think that PAP's hands and rink vision are the selling points
He may lose half-a-step but he’s always going to be able to put the puck where he wishes, and recognize a play more quickly than most of his opponents. His decline may be slower than a guy like, say, Grabner.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
Yes, he should be about as good on the PP 5 years from now...
…if he can avoid serious injury. And having only played 162 NHL games, his body may hold up fine through 32-33 years old.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 15, 2012 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
PAP does also get a lot of "transition"/"hustle" points.
I don’t think he’s gonna just turn into a terrible player by 35yrs old, but he could. I think because of his skating he is a solid 2-way player and can find open space, ex: Streit being closed off easier entering the zone then he was earlier in his islander career. But this is all theoretical anyway.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg
Prediction...........
as we speak the parties are banging out a contract. PAP has benefited from playing with JT and others. He will probably not get that opportunity on another team. Everyone knows that including him and other GMs. 4years 16M will get it done and before the deadline. If an offer like that won’t do it, then he goes at the deadline. Unfortunately a UFA rental will at best get us a #2 pick. That would be better than overpaying him now or letting him walk for nothing this summer.
by altosax on Feb 15, 2012 6:05 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Is he really worth 4/16?
I’d point out that’s a sweeter deal than Moulson is getting. Moulson is a more valuable player than PAP. It’s not really close.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
he might be a more valuable player than PAP
but there is no one to replace PAP for a few years, arguably, and you are not getting any FA’s to come in and pot 70 points. So you sign him for maybe a bit more than Moulson and be done with it.
For a few years is stretching it.
If the Isles believe Nino is ready for a top 6 job (likely) next year, and that their other forward prospects (Kirill 1, Kirill 2, Strome) will be ready within another year…..well PAP is not quite expendable, but he’s not necessary either.
Not the type of player to overpay for.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
What are your terms for "not even close" here?
Regarding Moulson – Parenteau? Also, which one is more likely decline over the next few years?
I don’t see Parenteau as replaceable next year — certainly not by Nino — so I’d be okay with overpaying in either salary or term (not both). He’s obviously driving a harder bargain than Moulson.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 15, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd give Parenteau 3M per.
(As for who’s more likely to decline I’d go with Parenteau. Assist men are easier to find than goal guys. Moulson’s actually younger!)
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Is goals vs. assists what makes it "not even close" to you?
Moulson seems to be durable, but he takes more beatings in front of the net. Not quite a “power forward” but that role is always a concern as it ages. Parenteau is smaller, doesn’t shy from contact either.
Parenteau is one of those cases where “driving possession” can actually be taken literally rather than statistically: He provides a puck movement and advancement attribute that Moulson does not. I think their respective values on this team are damn close.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I won't even attempt to guess at injuries
And Moulson’s ironman streak is insane.
That said, as much as I love possession-drivers, Moulson’s ability to score goals is rarer. So yeah that’s what makes me value Moulson much higher. Career 14.4% Shooting Percentage guys are kind of hard to find.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
/knock on wood
Right, I’m just bringing injuries up to brainstorm other factors. Would even give a small plus in Parenteau’s column for being a righty shooter.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Kind of agree
This is why I thought PA would come in a good bit under Moulson’s $3.1 and Grabner’s $3, but at the same time I feel he’s as valuable a player (and he’s had a pretty superior CorsiRel the past two years), if that makes sense; i.e. in reality for a team he’s as valuable, but in the marketplace he’s less so because you believe his abilities are easier to come by (though they very well might not be).
There aren't too many...
…decent-sized forwards who can skate and pass as well as PAP, and hit some.
The top 13 even-strength assist guys in the NHL:
H. Sedin 33
Parenteau 28
Whitney 28
St. Louis 27
Hossa 26
Eriksson 26
Lupul 26
Kane 26
(4 tied with 25: Benn, Wheeler, Datsyuk, Thornton; Spezza 24)
Perhaps Moulsons are rarer, but it’s close, I think.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 15, 2012 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
Guys like Moulson and Parenteau need each other to be truly effective
Parenteau isn’t finishing fifth in the league in assists passing to a guy like Jon Sim, and Moulson isn’t scoring 30 goals three straight times without a playmaker. They’re great compliments to each other.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
gaaah
ComplEments. I’m sure they compliment each other too, especially on their flow, but that’s not important right now.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
by mikb on Feb 16, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, that's what I'm after
On the open market it may be different, but on this team…
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
PA for me
Moulson’s kind of my favourite and I know such talent is very hard to find, but PA is the more valueable player in my opinion. And if it’s still Moulson, it’s definitely very, very close.
But regardless, though I’m starting to guess here, I think no prospect will be on PA’s current level until at least the beginning of 2014-15. So, I don’t think ghalbarts “a few years” is stretching it there. And that’s just overall value we’re referring to here. If we go by PA’s specific abilities, driving the play and such, I’m not sure any winger currently within the system will ever reach PA’s level. So, actually for me he is exactly and for multiple reasons the type of player to overpay for.
Clearly, if you estimate him lower, some prospects higher or the needs of the team differently, then the standard “sign by the deadline or trade” might well apply, but for me it doesn’t really work in this case. Sure, Garth needs to listen and be aware what it means if he can’t sign him in the next couple of weeks, but still, in my opinion he also needs to make sure to treat this as a very special case. Honestly, if they move PA I can’t see how the playoffs will be a realistic goal next season.
We disagree here I think
" Honestly, if they move PA I can’t see how the playoffs will be a realistic goal next season."
I envision a dramatically revamped D more than making up for a loss of PAP, though I would like to re-sign him.
That said, I don’t think the Isles can keep him if he reaches Free Agency, so I think he still fits the trade or sign now mold.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
But what's going to "dramatically revamp" our D next season?
Unless we somehow land a top-4 defenseman, via trade or free agency, our defense will probably look a lot like this:
MacDonald-Hamonic
Streit-DeHaan
Donovan-Ness
None of them are bad players, and in fact their youth alone puts them ahead of our defensemen right now in terms of speed, but that’s three rookies, one of whom is playing a top-4 role.
Now my hope is that DeHaan and Donovan join Ness and get the call-up at some point this month or next just to get a taste of the NHL before next season. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.
by sayvillelax94 on Feb 16, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
I am with you on this one
Two different players, valued differently. Also we cannot assume that any of our Prospects will turn into 70 point guys, we hope, but we cannot assume. PAP is there now, and there is no reason for a sudden decline over the next 2 – 3 years with his type of play. The guy is not turning 35 or 36 as it seems you think he is.
Nino is a power forward, or at least that is what we hope for in him, Strome our closest prospect to a guy like PA and JT will not deliver next year and should not be asked to replace the play making that PAP brings on other lines.
Assumptions are the mother of all **** ups. Just wanted to add that, lol. But we are speculating on everything on this site anyways, right.
Who does he deserve to outclass, paycheck-wise!
PA shouldn’t make much more than Moulsen., Or Frans. Or Grabs. And he’s so much older than Grabs, he can’t get a 5-year deal. I think Garth wants him in at roughly 3 mil for 3 years, which times out just right with Strome, etc. PA wants more, and he’ll get it as the 4th or 5th best FA forward this summer. Can’t blame either side.
by BobSulli on Feb 15, 2012 7:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The difference is that Parenteau is a UFA, whereas Moulson and Grabner were RFAs, I believe.
That’s the main reason he will end up with more money.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 15, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
Moulson was a UFA
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Garik
Nino granted on the 4th line, in 30+ games has 1 goal and is minus 16, not a top 6 guy next season, maybe a 3rd liner if he and we are lucky!
Matt Martin was one of the worst players in the NHL last season.
Nino’s now even younger than Martin was last year. He’ll be fine.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 15, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Completely different roles and players............
Nino was a first round pik.
Which means his upside is higher
and brings up the point that he’s playing on a line that offers him absolutely nothing like he is expected to deal with. Martin was on a line that he should’ve fit in with last year.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Feb 15, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bottom line...........
pick what ever line, Nino is at present underperforming and Martin perhaps over performing. Next season is an open book I take issue with your word likely to describe that off this past season that likely accurately describes hopes for Nino’s being ready for a top 6 job. Many including our leader have suggested he have another year in the minors. I take your point that his 4th line minutes did not give him the chance he should have had, but the people playing above him played very well. However the Rolston Pandolfo Reasoner group would have been better on the bench. Thank you GS!
You're banking on a prospect tho
This team will be in forever rebuild if we dont lock up the good players…
In what universe was...
Matt Martin was one of the worst players in the NHL last season.
Only on planet Pocketprotector, in the galaxy of BandiadOnMyGlasses… where everybody can recite pi to the 50th place and HOF athletes are decided by strat-o-matic board games played in rooms filled with tissue boxes and posters of Leonard Nimoy.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
by JPinVA on Feb 16, 2012 8:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I get the joke
But at the same time I’d say watching him last year, you could SEE he had some game going forward, and he did some things that you knew would be valuable, but you could also SEE he was often terrible, took bad penalties, and struggled in his own end. Which makes sense-he was a rookie. His play this year is night and day from last year, mostly due to restraint. I don’t think him being awful last year, and good this year is really that surprising.
by afrosupreme on Feb 16, 2012 9:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not really...
completely different context, almost identical player, improving on a standard trajectory.
2010-11 was a terrible team with a fourth line that eventually was molded to sap energy. If being in the top five of anything positive (like hits) as a rookie makes you THE WORST at anything… sign me up for BIZZARO WORLD.
This is what happens when you judge players by numbers. I watched those games, and this year isn’t a surprise to me. What is a surprise is that he is not still on the fourth line while Ullstrom-Bailey-Parentau are putting up solid numbers. Matt Martin is 22, and has been giving the team solid shifts for two years. He still leads the team and possibly the league (too lazy to look it up) in hits. He kills penalties effectively, and PROTECTS his teammates. this didn’t start at 22, he was doing all of this as a 21 year old. But he was doing it with Zenon Konopka and a host (Joensuu/Haley/Hunter/[place your name here]) of forwards.
My assessment of Martin last year was a contributing bottom six forward with middle six potential in the near future. Garick’s… HE SUCKED.
His play this year is night and day from last year
Really? I think I watched him with a focus on what I thought the coaches wanted him to do, and you must have been watching him in the context of, “This kid is a 21-year-old 5th rounder… why the fuck isn’t he scoring 20 goals”
Has he improved… yes. Did he play more like a rookie last year… yes. SUCKED= Joen-Q-tip who is in europe now.
SUCKED= Konopka who led the league in penalties and unnecessary fights.
SUCKED= Scott Gordon, who couldn’t get the team on the same page long enough to win a game in a month.
SUCKED does not equal a 21 year old who missed some assignments in the defensive zone playing with one of the worst rosters in the league’s FOURTH LINE.
/end point… moving on to more pressing issues.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
I watched those games, and this year isn’t a surprise to me.
I agreed with you in my comment above. But like I said, last year I watched him take a ton of dumb penalties and take himself out of the play just to make a hit (and are we really putting a lot of stock into that stat? strange an anti-numbers guy would line up behind that one). It had nothing to do with goal-scoring; in fact I was impressed with his hands the rare occasions he found himself in position to score.
I actually defended Martin several times last year because I thought he would round out nicely going forward, but I have no problem admitting he hurt the team more than he helped it on a lot of nights last year. I guess that’s the difference when you haven’t sunk money into a jersey.
In the universe where they play hockey
Martin showed potential. He also frequently showed that he was in way over his head. This year he’s no longer chasing pointless bodychecks all over the ice while his teammates play an impromptu penalty kill for twenty seconds. He’s no longer taking stupid penalties. As a result he has a lot more time to contribute positively.
There was no guarantee he could ever do that, though. You talk now as if it was never in doubt, but plenty of guys with Martin’s skillset never get their act together. Hell, plenty of guys with far greater skillsets never get their act together. (Rob Schremp, please pick up the white courtesy phone.)
Only on Planet Rambonorris, in the mythic land of KungFuGuitarSolos… where everybody has Teh Gritz and HOF athletes are decided by explosions and a knife-throwing contest.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
by mikb on Feb 16, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But then I see little risk in...
…signing PAP to 4 years/ $16 million and trading him next season. Sure, if he has a bad injury, Isles are stuck with him. But even if he only scores at a 55-60 pt pace, Isles will be able to trade him next season (or 2013 offseason) and get a low draft pick in return.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 15, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
.....we've staggered 2 players' contracts already; why is it that
nobody feels PAP is a classic example of the need for doing so again? Of course Walsh is going to be a d-k about it by all indications, but I would think that even Parenteau would find a 4-year deal, structured so that he’d make $16 mil contingent upon reaching certain benchmarks (say, 20 goals and 50 assists/70 point minimums since those totals are what his value is going to be predicated upon) reasonable…..
In memoriam: Virginia Ariel Cayon 1927-2011 R.I.P. Mom
Why do we have all this cap space?
I don’t think Garth should write him an open check but he should be able to bve generous…Pay the man. The him a fair deal and make it a little sweeter since he can.
I'm not so confident that Nino will be ready for top 6 minutes next season
Still feels weird cheering for Nabokov
No probably somewhat less than that.
Otherwise, your prediction sounds more likely than not.
It is Diduck.
If you decide to trade him, when do you do it?
I think this is one of the more interesting questions. You have to start shopping him around about now if you hope to get a deal done with the upcoming trade deadline. You can continue to negotiate but at least throw the idea out there that he may be available before the deadline.
Now the interesting thing to me is at what point do you pull the trigger if both a trade is in place and you are still negotiating. You don’t want to risk losing Parenteau when you don’t have to but at the same time any deal in place will be reliant upon him staying healthy. Do you healthy scratch him while you are continuing to negotiate? Will a team be willing to wait on a trade instead of looking at other forward options?
There are a lot of variables out there for Snow to consider if Parenteau plans on driving this down to the wire. Ultimately I think it will end up hurting him more than it will hurt the Islanders.
Definitely a poster at Lighthouse Hockey until 2015, then maybe somewhere else.
If it ends up.........
that PAP goes for nothing this summer, than Snow is really having a Milbury moment.
No.
Absolutely wrong comparison. A Milbury moment would be if Garth dealt him for nothing, not let him go for nothing.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
Don't get it..........
If we end up with nothing and should have had something, out of a valuable asset, than the GM is doing a horrible job, think MM.
General observation
Isn’t this whole business of trading someone away before they can sign with another team “for free” somewhat bizarre?
Just a thought.
It is Diduck.
You mean the summer time "rights" trades?
Yes, very.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
That too.
I mean the real but counterintuitive premise behind this entire discussion, of course.
It is Diduck.
Not really. The way it works for a team with limited resources.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Heh, PBR
That’s good stuff. But shouldn’t the helmet be plaid?
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
Has PAP's Agent
challenged the wrong guy in Charles Wang?
We all know Wang’s immutable policy on not playing guys who are not signed by the beginning of training camp. That suggests to me that Wang may not be the right owner to pull an “I’m a UFA and I’m not talking extension while the Playoff run is going on”. Wang might just say as a matter of policy, “Enjoy your Playoff run in Calgary, dude.”
"...I was here on Day 1 when Garth decided to do the rebuild, and I really want to see it through." -- Frans Nielsen
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Feb 15, 2012 7:08 PM EST reply actions
Uh, the agent doesn't care.
The agent just wants the best contract for PAP. Doesn’t care where.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Also, the agent didn't say absolutely no talks while this run is on.
He said that right now he wants his client to focus on hockey, but will entertain offers if/when Garth wants to talk. Standard agent speak. Nothing ground-breaking. Nothing alarming. No challenges.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
PAP, 28 year old
2 years of NHL Experience. Wants the big bucks after a breakout season. Is his level of play sustainable, considering that 28 is around that age that people consider “their prime”. Like the guy, would love to have him signed, but I don’t think it will get done. Guy realizes this is his best chance to get a pay-day in the NHL before it all goes down hill. Prob trade him to the blues or phoenix would be my guess. who knows, not going to speculate. just going to let it play out.
You should've seen her face. It was the exact same look my father gave me when I told him I wanted to be a ventriloquist.
Does SportsNet have a drug problem?
29th? These people shouldn’t be allowed to write…or drive…or procreate. idiots!
I was just thinking
we had blown a golden opportunity to use this. I’m glad someone took advantage.
by afrosupreme on Feb 15, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
To add some perspective to the Isles' chances....
… I whipped up a few ways of sizing up that hill they have to climb:
http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2012/2/15/2801086/to-hope-or-not-to-hope
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 9:46 PM EST reply actions
"NSFW"
What is the first overall ranked team doing over there, exactly???
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 9:53 PM EST reply actions
Hopefully, all getting arrested
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Feb 16, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Snow needs our help!!!
We, as a fan base, can help Garth re-sign PA. We need to band together and talk all kinds of smack about PA. We have about a week to talk enough shit that we knock his value down a few pegs, at which point Garth will swoop in with a ‘reasonable’ offer. Of course we must do this secretly. We shall call it: Operation PAPSMEAR.
by CloseCallJiggs on Feb 15, 2012 10:28 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
I'll start!
PAP = Punk Ass Prick
"This season is a serious misallocation of valuable hockey resources"- Saving Private Tavares
by FireGarthSnow on Feb 15, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Attaboy!!
Lets keep the ball rollin now!
by CloseCallJiggs on Feb 15, 2012 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
PAP
Perpetually Annoying Plagiarist
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 16, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
PAP
Plausibly Altered Plagiarism
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Feb 16, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
I have to rec that if only for the term.
If I think of anything, I’ll get back to you.
Contributor for Lighthouse Hockey. Definitely neither the Sniper nor the Enforcer.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Feb 15, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
Purposefully Aggrivating Pissant
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Feb 16, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
"......The Islanders gave him his first real opportunity to thrive in the NHL...."
Apparently this small fact has been forgotten by both PAP and his agent, at least for now. Franz’s money or slightly higher should be sufficient. for 2-3 year deal. Or just sign him for a one year extension @ 3 million now. Just MHO.
"This season is a serious misallocation of valuable hockey resources"- Saving Private Tavares
Not really.
Nothing said or written has inferred any ingratitude on the part of PA. His agent is doing his agently duties—which always seem douchey because agents seem like douches.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Feb 16, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Gratitude is over rated.
Yes, the Islanders gave him a chance and he gave them two productive seasons, so there was a fair trade. Anything going forward is a clean slate. You would hope that loyalty means something, but in business it often means nothing. Teams consistently overpay to bring in an UFA while lowballing an RFA, where’s the loyalty there?
Then his agent shouldn't have said it and kept it out of the equation.
That was part of his agent’s quote. Sure , it’s a business. But in this case PAP would PROBABLY ( note I did not infer any certainty) be in Europe or the AHL if it wasn’t for Snow going dumpster diving. That’s why I suggested a one year deal at 3 million and let’s see him do it again.
"This season is a serious misallocation of valuable hockey resources"- Saving Private Tavares
by FireGarthSnow on Feb 16, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
But that would be far from PAP's best interest.
Why would he take a one-year deal at $3 million when he could sign a $15-$20 million multi-year deal that would pay him nicely even if he has a horrible injury next season? Even if he 100% wanted to sign with the Isles, it seems he would take an $11 million 4-year deal over a $3.5 million one-year deal.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 16, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I said in a previous thread that Franz money or slightly higher was fair.
Which is what you suggested. Surprised you didn’t pick up on that NDRE, as you usually follow my posts around. I would go 12 million for 4 years, keeping in line with Okposo (2,8) and Grabner( 3.0) . I would be surprised if Garth offered that and PAP/Agent said no. If that’s the case, I wish him well on his new team, because Snow apparently has a specific salary structure in mind for the Islanders, since they can’t seems to sign any top tier UFA’s due in part to the arena ( which Snow admitted was an issue in his Bettman interview)
These statements are only the opinion of the writer, and not necessarily the opinion of this station. No where is it claimed that Mind Reading 101 has been passed.
"This season is a serious misallocation of valuable hockey resources"- Saving Private Tavares
by FireGarthSnow on Feb 16, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with what you're saying here, pretty much.
I just don’t see how a one-year deal would tempt Parenteau.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Feb 16, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
That’s why I suggested a one year deal at 3 million and let’s see him do it again.
That’s what last year’s 1-year contract was for, and what does PAP do? Just be on pace for a 75-point season. If Garth offered him a 1-year deal again, no way in hell would he even consider being an Islander again.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Feb 16, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Tuomo Ruutu injured- out 3 weeks
Does this raise PAP’s trade value?
Nabby, PAP, and 2013 1st rounder for Kane. Yes, it’s a dream,lol.
"This season is a serious misallocation of valuable hockey resources"- Saving Private Tavares
lol. Yeah, that should raise PAP's value.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
"John Tavares(a top 10 forward in the NHL)"-Neil Greenberg

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