NHL Power Rankings; Catch Jack Capuano Fishing on NBC Sports
by Dominik on Jan 4, 2012 11:12 AM EST
in Bits o' Islanders News
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PrintThe New York Islanders are soon California-bound, carrying a modest three-game winning streak (but maybe not, iit appeared yesterday, Mike Mottau or Rick DiPietro). The Islanders don't play again until Friday in Anaheim, followed the next night by a visit to Phoenix. Next week: Home to the Red Wings and Flyers.
Newsday's Arthur Staple summed last night's Tavares show like so: "The downside, if there is one, is that the Isles are getting next to nothing offensively everywhere else on their roster. When Tavares wasn't on the ice against the reeling Hurricanes, the Islanders were either fumbling good chances away or losing one-on-one battles all over the ice."
If they want to keep that old ephemeral "momentum" feeling in their pocket, they'll need to continue taking points from the weaker teams -- but with better performances than last night -- before returning home for next week's tough ones. Of course a failure to win often enough, and against opponents who win often enough, is why the Islanders sit in our power rankings the same place they are in the NHL standings: 27th overall.
Before we get to this week's power rankings, a plug for an odd appearance by Jack Capuano on NBC Sports Thursday night:
The Show: Charlie Moore: No Offense, Thursday, Jan. 5, NBC Sports Network (nee Versus), 9 p.m. EST
Apparently Moore is a fisherman of some notoriety -- this is the season debut of his show's second season. Last summer, Moore and Islanders coach Jack Capuano teamed for what is billed as:
"a very funny episode of No Offense and a completely different look at Cappy. They fished together on lakes in Maine, ate dinner together at the Capuano house and City Cellar in Westbury, and Charlie even hopped on the Coliseum ice with some of our coaching and scouting staff."
It's not quite the epic pageantry that was Kelly Hrudey on the "Reading Rainbow," but it sounds like it will do for off-day entertainment.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but you can even watch it if you have TWC.
All-Star Game Voting
I've paid zero attention to All-Star Game voting and not much more attention to the game overall in recent years, but I believe today is the last day for fan balloting. You can vote here, if you're feeling the proud pull of Internet democracy.
Media Power Rankings
And now on to the media power rankings survey, which in the Isles' case is in synchronicity with the NHL standings and our own power rankings:
| Outlet | Rank | Last Week | Their Commentary |
| CBSSports | 25 | 25 |
Evgeni Nabokov has been getting most of the starts for the Islanders recently, and playing well. He should be an attractive player on the trade market when the time comes. |
|
THN (Proteau) |
27 | 27 |
Isles just 3-14-3 when trailing after one period; only Jackets (1-15-2) and Ducks (1-16-2) are worse |
|
ESPN (LeBrun) |
25 | 26 | Two straight wins for the Isles with John Tavares leading the way. |
| Sportsnet | 26 | 27 | Can you name the Islanders’ leading point-getter? Hint: It’s not John Tavares or Matt Moulson. It’s winger P.A. Parenteau, whose 25 assists have helped the Isles play .500 ball in the last half of December. |
|
TSN (Cullen) |
27 | 29 | 8-6-2 in the last 16 games, the Islanders have been competitive and matters have been helped by G Evgeni Nabokov stopping 85 of 89 shots (.955 SV%) in the last three games. |
| Fox | 27 |
27 | The Isles are 4-1-1 against the Northwest Division and 9-16-5 against everyone else. |
| Average |
26.2 |
26.8 |
Up down, up down, still 27-ish territory |
Real Power Rankings
And now on to our weekly "real" power rankings courtesy of Mike, or ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles (who is the one you'll find tirelessly compiling FIG picks in the game thread), who conceived and delivers these week after week. They are calculated in true "power ranking" fashion -- i.e. how well teams fare based on their opponents' records.
For reference, last week's power rankings are here. The rankings for this week, through Sunday's games follow below. This is before the shootout win over Carolina, which I suspect wouldn't affect things much anyway.
Kindly pay no attention to the team listed at the top (but related to that team: John Torotorella is expected to face a fine for his ripping the officiating after the Winter Classic. Shock.):
| W | L | OTL | Pts | Win Pct | PWR | ||
| 1 | Smurfs |
23 | 9 | 4 | 50 | 0.694 | 1991 |
| 2 | Boston | 24 | 10 | 1 | 49 | 0.700 | 1954 |
| 3 | San Jose | 19 | 11 | 4 | 42 | 0.618 | 1888 |
| 4 | Chicago | 24 | 10 | 4 | 52 | 0.684 | 1884 |
| 5 | Detroit | 24 | 13 | 1 | 49 | 0.645 | 1869 |
| 6 | Philadelphia | 22 | 10 | 4 | 48 | 0.667 | 1869 |
| 7 | St. Louis | 21 | 12 | 5 | 47 | 0.618 | 1851 |
| 8 | Vancouver | 24 | 13 | 2 | 50 | 0.641 | 1813 |
| 9 | Florida | 20 | 12 | 7 | 47 | 0.603 | 1733 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | 21 | 13 | 4 | 46 | 0.605 | 1728 |
| 11 | Minnesota | 21 | 13 | 6 | 48 | 0.600 | 1715 |
| 12 | Los Angeles | 19 | 14 | 6 | 44 | 0.564 | 1689 |
| 13 | New Jersey | 21 | 15 | 1 | 43 | 0.581 | 1646 |
| 14 | Dallas | 21 | 15 | 1 | 43 | 0.581 | 1645 |
| 15 | Washington | 20 | 15 | 2 | 42 | 0.568 | 1632 |
| 16 | Winnipeg | 19 | 14 | 5 | 43 | 0.566 | 1630 |
| 17 | Nashville | 21 | 14 | 4 | 46 | 0.590 | 1623 |
| 18 | Colorado | 21 | 18 | 1 | 43 | 0.538 | 1605 |
| 19 | Phoenix | 19 | 16 | 4 | 42 | 0.538 | 1568 |
| 20 | Ottawa | 19 | 15 | 5 | 43 | 0.551 | 1550 |
| 21 | Toronto | 18 | 15 | 5 | 41 | 0.539 | 1529 |
| 22 | Calgary | 18 | 17 | 5 | 41 | 0.513 | 1494 |
| 23 | Tampa Bay | 17 | 17 | 3 | 37 | 0.500 | 1459 |
| 24 | Buffalo | 17 | 17 | 4 | 38 | 0.500 | 1418 |
| 25 | Edmonton | 15 | 19 | 3 | 33 | 0.446 | 1363 |
| 26 | Montreal | 14 | 18 | 7 | 35 | 0.449 | 1348 |
| 27 | NY Islanders | 13 | 17 | 6 | 32 | 0.444 | 1334 |
| 28 | Carolina | 13 | 21 | 6 | 32 | 0.400 | 1230 |
| 29 | Anaheim | 10 | 21 | 6 | 26 | 0.351 | 1155 |
| 30 | Columbus | 10 | 23 | 5 | 25 | 0.329 | 955 |
One step back, one step forward. The Isles remain in 27th, though other teams are trying to fall down to join them.
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So the coach of one of the lowest scoring teams in the NHL...
is appearing on a show titled “No Offense”?
Hardy har har, Versus.
Comic Book Writer by day; Islanders fanatic by Gameday
by Captdallas on Jan 4, 2012 11:29 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Good call!
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Jan 4, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Gawd I hope Cappy
catches a wicked pissah snappah! Evah have a snappah grindah? Wicked pissah!
Being born in New York and rooting for the Islanders, Jets, and Mets. Yeah, I know.
Twitter: cmauceri524
by CharlieIsles on Jan 4, 2012 11:35 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
I hope he goes fishing for some wickhad ahsome D.
“Tell ya what Charlie, we need some fucking wickhad ahsome defence if we’re gonna beat the fucking rahngahs. They’re playing wickhad ahsome hockey right now. Gahth caught Mottau over there in Lake Somethingorotha, so I figure I’ll try a different lake and hope I don’t catch anotha goddamn Mottau….or a goddamn Rolston. Where is Lake Grit? Let’s go there.”
He's looking to do some
smaht, hahd fishin’.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
I thought the lines worked hahd today
But some bait is gettin’ the fish caught and some is just goin’ through the motions. Passenger bait. The bait that catch fish will be cast, and the bait that don’t, won’t.
We’ve gotta realize that in order to catch fish in this lake we gotta cast hahd for a full six hours.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Jan 4, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No accent required
I really hope Moulson, Grabner and Martin live tweet that show.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I always put on a raincoat and some goggles when I read this
in preparation for the vile spew from the various sportswriters. But this week was rather pleasant(ish). Although it does seem like some of them are throwing Nabby a life preserver to help him get off the island.
LoL at fox commentary
Maybe all the extra games against western conference foes next year will let the Isles dark-horse their way into a playoff spot.
Hoping that Haley comes around more than once every 75 years.
Let's swap divisions with Vancouver and call it a day.
Deal?
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Jan 4, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Kansas City Islanders
will be a solid lock for the President’s Trophy and Stanley Cup in 2016.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
Naaaaah, that's silly
The Colonels are in Kentucky!
On the bright side, if the Inlanders score three goals in a home game? Free KC BBQ, baby.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
90 point pace
I realize that 90 points may not be enough for the playoffs this year, but given pre-season expectations of being “in the conversation” rather than playoffs per se, I have chosen 90 points as a reasonable goal. At this point, he Isles will need to earn 1.24 points per game for the duration of the season to reach 90 points. That means winning going 6-3-1 every 10 games. If they manage to beat the Ducks and Coyotes, the “magic pace” is 1.209, or an even 6-4 pace.
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Jan 4, 2012 11:58 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Just a sniff of the playoffs please
All I really want at this point is to be able to watch somewhat meaningful hockey in February and March.
Take em to the jabrone-zone
by IslesJabronie on Jan 4, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
There is plenty of meaningful hockey in February and March....
oh, you meant for the Isles….
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Jan 4, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
so, he fishes....
explains why he was so against changing lines this year…
These comments crawl up from the depths of the deepest Chasm of Saar
by bob l on Jan 4, 2012 12:12 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
LOL!!!!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 4, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Ba-dum-dum!
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Jan 4, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
I hope Cappy is
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Jan 4, 2012 12:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Damn
I thought that was a Midwestern secret. What else do all’y’all know about?
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Holy cow
Great site. Glad they have a thorough refund policy.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
anybody vote for the all star game?
"We owe him a lot more than he owes us at this point. He's been stellar all year. He still gave us a chance to win this one, and we've got to find a way."
—C Josh Bailey, on G Al Montoya after a 5-3 loss Tuesday in Montreal.
by BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Jan 4, 2012 1:04 PM EST reply actions
Three times
Stamkos
JT (obv)
Giroux
Lidstrom (sentimental I know)
Chara
Thomas
STOP effin' messin' with my FnGO!!
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Jan 4, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Eight times
Tavares, Moulson, Parenteau and Hamonic.
Screw that whole process. It’s all Leafs and Sens.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
That's why I went homer too
"We owe him a lot more than he owes us at this point. He's been stellar all year. He still gave us a chance to win this one, and we've got to find a way."
—C Josh Bailey, on G Al Montoya after a 5-3 loss Tuesday in Montreal.
by BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Jan 4, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
30 times
JT, Matty MO, Grabner and Streit
Unbiased voting at its finest
Take em to the jabrone-zone
by IslesJabronie on Jan 4, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I went all out homer
JT
Jamie Benn ( because he deserevs some votes and probably won’t get many)
Stamkos
Wrote in Hamonic
Weber
Rinne
"We owe him a lot more than he owes us at this point. He's been stellar all year. He still gave us a chance to win this one, and we've got to find a way."
—C Josh Bailey, on G Al Montoya after a 5-3 loss Tuesday in Montreal.
by BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Jan 4, 2012 1:09 PM EST reply actions
Hmmm... I don't recall my spreadsheet calling them the Smurfs.
It would appear it has become self-aware. It’s alive!!!!! And even IT hates the Rangers!
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Jan 4, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Only good thing to come from He Who Shall Not be Named
Seriously think we should follow his example on this one…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBrdOAMLwiw&list=UULbVIAfsIAPrX0HElFe3Ejg&index=1&feature=plcp
by IDCWhoYouLike on Jan 4, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Better link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBrdOAMLwiw
doesn’t link to all the guys videos
by IDCWhoYouLike on Jan 4, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Heh
I shoulda changed it to that. Next week, maybe.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Thanks!
I missed that live.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Jan 4, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
The power ranking spread sheet became self-aware at 2:14 AM Eastern Time
In the panic, we tried to pull the plug
by Isles2011 on Jan 4, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Fortunately Mike's CPU is a neural net processor
A learning computer.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
It would be something Islanders related
that caused the downfall of humanity.
by GreekIsles83 on Jan 6, 2012 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
St Pete Times article
from Jan 1
New York Islanders might supply Tampa Bay Lightning with a goalie — again
even throws in the standard “for lowly New York” line from a team sitting in lofty 12th place with a $61.5m payroll.
What I'd heard
Was that they’d be looking for a more long-term option (with all those decent backups like Schneider out there), but I must say the Nabby thought has crossed my mind because he’s so cheap. I think the Isles are in the driver’s seat on this one though, because they need him.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
If this rumor is true...
I hope Garth takes Yzerman for all he’s worth in any deal. We have AHL options and no chance at the playoffs, so there is little or no pressure on Garth to take one defensive prospect this go around. I want Ryan Malone (Islander killer).
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
Malone is injured: day to day
from Tampa Tribune
Malone did not play Tuesday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs because of a lower-body injury suffered during Monday’s practice. The injury occurred when he collided with teammate Nate Thompson. While the play looked innocent, it left Malone slamming his stick against the bench.
Lightning coach Guy Boucher was surprised to find out Malone would not be able to play.
“Again with the injuries,‘’ Boucher said. "Happy New Year! It’s been that way since Day One this year, so we are not going to cry about it. We are going to move forward and continue to find ways like we’ve been doing.’’
Oh my
Thompson would be crucified here (or at least at IPB) if that happened with the NYI.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I wonder if there could be a reverse bidding war
With the Snow price and the Gillis price bouncing Yzerman between one direction and the other.
Honestly though, TB looks to be in a world of hurt. I wonder if by the deadline it will be worth making a short-term move like Nabby.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I'd be upset if we traded Nabby
Unless we got a haul, which seems really unlikely to me. The Isles are NOT done yet this year, and it would look an awful lot like raising the white flag. Premature.
Plus, really, I think we have overvalued Nabby’s trade value in our minds all year. Why would we think he’s worth any more than Rollie? I don’t want Wishart #2 or a 3rd round pick for him. But think what would we trade to get Nabby from them.
(Any economics students out there, there’s a reason that the holders of assets always overvalue them — houses, used cars, goalies — it’s called “endowment effect.” You love that old ‘83 Mustang and you’re sure it’s worth at least $1,000…but if you were buying it instead of selling it you’d never pay more than $500. Read more here.
http://endowment-effect.behaviouralfinance.net/ )
Agree his value tends to be overstated
Can’t see him fetching much more if any than Roloson unless TB gets desperate but doesn’t want to fork over for a longer-term option.
Also agree they shouldn’t deal him early like they did with Roloson. Wait until closer to the deadline if that, make a move if health allows.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
If
he can land something better than he should (like Wishart for Roloson-I still think that was above value for Roloson), then I say move him whenever you can.
But yea, I don’t think he gets back that much, so wait it out and see what happens closer to the deadline. Even if he gets hurt and brings back nothing, that’s not really a big deal since I’m not expecting much of a return as it is.
How about we give them Wishart back
along with Nabby and demand a dman that can actually play this time.
by CloseCallJiggs on Jan 4, 2012 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
Seems to be a dearth of quality dmen in this league right now.
We have some of the worst, but poor D is scuttling a lot of teams right now. It’s going to be hard to find a team willing to move a decent D asset.
by CloseCallJiggs on Jan 4, 2012 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Certainly every GM pines
“Everyone’s looking for defensemen.”
It’s hilarious how many GMs or their mouthpieces say that when the topic of trades come up. It makes me a little more sympathetic to Snow, but doesn’t change my concerns about how this team evals blueliners.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I liken it to pitchers in baseball
Every team needs pitching, regardless of the quality of their starters, relievers and closers.
In terms of the NHL, there are, what, 120 Top 4 D positions in the league? Unfortunately, that doesn’t necessarily mean there are 120 Top 4 defensemen.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
I should rephrase...
Politely ask for an upgrade.
by CloseCallJiggs on Jan 4, 2012 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'd want ryan malone too.....
only if he was 5yrs younger. :-) . I do love him as a player though. A true big strong 2-way power forward, well before injuries stuck/are-striking anyway.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
I'd take a 3rd rounder for him. That's pretty good for renting an old goalie.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
I like the Lowly New York team
Meanwhile Tampas not exactly lighting it up this year
Constantly building for the future.
yeah, now a whole 3 pts ahead of Isles with Isles having a game in hand on them.
somehow TBL escape a “lowly Tampa” tag based on last season’s miracle post-season run of Sean Bergenheim, Teddy Purcell and Roli… and Steve Yzerman’s 2nd year as GM who took 3 weeks into RFA to re-sign their #1 star Stamkos.
by noomz on Jan 4, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Was listening to a radio interview with a Wild guy
And he said it’d be crazy for Granlund (who is unsigned, needs to sign by this June or go back into the draft) because the teams that would be in position to draft him would be “Columbus or the Islanders.” Heh. The Wild are that much further along, are they?
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Wild are in a crappy situation. Limited offensively with no solutions in sight and have been living off backstrom saving their asses in net more then his numbers suggest. A perennial borderline playoff team or worse for the next half decade at best
unless they land a big free agent or draft some difference making offensive talent or somehow reconstruct their offense. Setoguchi and Heatley help, but not nearly do they answer the Wild’s O problems. But they still have a strong fanbase and sell tickets! lol. But I’d much rather be in our shoes, we will win a cup eventually with the rebuild we’ve done, they look like they are gonna be in purgatory for the foreseeable future.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
I certainly envy their arena and attendance
But otherwise it was funny the assumption that a high-end prospect would want to join that situation any more than this one. Hail, Tavares.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I take an alarmingly satisfying, perverse delight at
reading other SBN blogs after Islanders wins and seeing the common refrain of “I can’t believe we lost to the Islanders!!?? WTF” At some point (hopefully) a loss to the Islanders would just simply be another loss. But for now, they’re still the gold standard for ineptitude, even your team is just as if not more inept than they are.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 5, 2012 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
I don't search it out, but I see it at general hockey sites
People don’t seem to realize any team can beat any other team in the NHL. Which is why with only a hint of sarcasm I will put “I can’t believe we lost to [team x]” whent he Isles lose, no matter who the opponent.
Be careful in the boat, Cappy!
You know, JT, I love fishing. And when I was little, I went fishing, and I would say a Hail Mary, and whenever I did I would always catch the biggest fish. You’ll come with me sometime, JT.
Scott Allen: Tavares! Snow wants to see you for a second.
Aw well… maybe next time, kiddo….
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
by mikb on Jan 4, 2012 2:19 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
This is brutally funny.
I know it was you. You broke my heart, Cappy. You broke my heart!
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
According to Moe Green: Cappy was pulling the goalies 2 minutes early
the Islanders couldn’t even tie up the score
by 4PeatSake on Jan 4, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Is that why you pulled Nabby two minutes early?
Players couldn’t get a shot on net! What’s the matter with you? I got a team to run. I gotta kick asses sometimes to make it run right. We had a little argument, Nabby and me, so I had to straighten him out.
Senator, my offer is this: nothing
Not even the money for Alexei Yashin’s buyout.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Crap
Has anyone seen Cappy’s prize horse?!
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Jan 4, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In walks Johnny Tavares
with his olive oil hands and his Portugese charms and steals my best road tie…and I’ve had ties from all over the world.
I'm smart!!!
And I want respect!
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
@bobnystrom23
now on twitter.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Curious
Incarcerated Bob @incarceratedbob 4m Reply Favorite · Open
NHL BREAKING NEWSSource: FINALLY!! Rick DiPietro has been contemplating #RETIREMENT – The buzz around Isles is this gets done in summer
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
Oh if Incarcerated Bob said so....
then I will only believe it if Eklund retweets.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Jan 4, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Isn't this
the same guy who dished all the dirt about alien visits to the White House to the Weekly World News?
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
With all due respect to Rick
please be true…please be true…
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Follow up
Incarcerated Bob @incarceratedbob 9m
NHL BREAKING NEWSSource: Agent for Rick DiPietro has been in touch with Isles owner #WANG since last week & the insurance company #DONE
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
dont tease
bob is pretty good when it comes to football, im still waiting for that semin to isles trade from last season.
by Whitby on Jan 4, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's weird that this time I'm more inclined to see fire behind IB's smoke
But mostly because the signs all season have hinted at a turning point.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
(That, and the Isles stocking up on goalies like it's 2012)
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Which may in fact be IB's "source"
Take common sense speculation, add reference to mysterious insider sources, get rich (or at least lots of clicks)!
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Jan 4, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I don’t see how he can’t retire at this point. He’ll probably replace Peter “BGTD” Ruttgaizer, which would kill 2 birds with one stone.
Well the big reason
is we’d lose the cap hit (probably)…if anything, I’d expect it to be a process started now for after the season. We just can’t lose that cap hit unless we take on some significant salary.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
I'm assuming this summer as well
Oh wait, and summer is what IB is saying?! Well again this is one of those rumoring about what is quite likely anyway. Hmmm…
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I think I was a little confused
because it looked like it went from “Summer” to “in contact, DONE”. But now I guess he means that DP is “done” in the “summer”.
Again though, it is one of those weird things because even Deadspin did a thing like “DP hurt while on IR”…and who does that…and who brings a guy on a road trip that’s on IR, and then sends them home.
Hey, isn’t that knee specialist in Carolina?
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
And then there's this:
Schultz88 Kevin Schultz
Final word on RDP rumor mill: rumor cited DiPietro’s agent. DiPietro doesn’t have one. Represented by father and himself. #checkandmate
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Jan 4, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
ahhhh hahahahahahaha
Reality several thousand, IncarceratedBob nil.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
I guess when you have a lifetime contract
You don’t really need an agent.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 9:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
LOL
Never even thought of that.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I mentioned this in another thread, but
Once Garth signs Nielsen, Parenteau and Montoya (hopefully) to new contracts, Rick can safely come off the books.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Rick + Rolston = PAP + FN + Montoya
That’s looking at PAP, FN and Montoya averaging out at about $3 million each.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
Sounds about right
Moulson and Grabner are making $3 a piece. Nielsen might get more just too keep him here. Montoya’s a bit of a wild card now with the injury, but I wouldn’t mind 3 years/$9 mil
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I still feel like next year's payroll is going to be relatively low
Rolston, Pandolfo, Eaton, Mottau, Staois, DiPietro off the books = $14.2 million in cap space to play with.
Raises to PAP, Montoya, Frans, and Martin + possible ELCs for Nino + new goalie + new D = cap floor easily reachable.
I salivate thinking about next year’s roster…
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
If Rolston's cap hit lets RDP retire without the Isles being penalized...
…then he’s already worth having around.
Not that we didn’t know this day would come for Rick, but damn, I really wished that last year or this, he would be physically capable of holding down the backup job, at least. My heart really goes out to him.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
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Yeah, I thought this might be Rick's comeback year, too
But it seems to not be the case. When his career finally does wind down, it will be sad. They will be telling his tale for generations.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 9:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's worthy of an ode
The Legend of the Rick…
I mean, he just got sent home injured when he was ALREADY on the injured list. And this was a durable elite athlete in his physical peak just four years ago – now he could break something bending down to pick up his morning paper. I’ve honestly never seen anything like it before.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
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by mikb on Jan 4, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Even if he signed them this second
the cap hit on an extension doesn’t start until that contract starts. Would still be next season the earliest.
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Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Maybe they work out something with the league
like a grace period, or maybe there’s a deadline by which you have to have to reach the floor.
Or maybe I’d kinda like this saga to just be the hell over and the Islanders can move on.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
There's no reason
to worry about it for this season. He can sit on IR all year not eating a roster spot while keeping us over the cap. The bigger issue is going forward next year and whether his 4.5 million becomes available to sign a big name free agent. That’s what makes this rumor exciting.
No grace period
During the season, at 5 pm EST every day, you have to be in compliance. It’s very cut-and-dried to keep teams from trying any shenanigans. That’s why teams freak out as the regular season approaches and they’re still out of the acceptable salary range (usually over, as in the Devils last season).
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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Right
What I’m saying though is, there isn’t any reason for him to retire right now. He can sit on IR and collect a paycheck for the rest of this season and not eat up a roster spot. I highly doubt he’d turn down a paycheck for the next few months.
yes, good point
I was trying to reply to PGI, but I overskated the reply button.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
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Time to crank up the rumor mill
Isles heading to Anaheim where Bobby Ryan (and/or Ryan Getzlaf) are rumored to be available with TOR, NYR, BUF, PHI & NSH supposedly expressing “considerable interest.”
And 24 y/o D Jack Johnson rumored available by Kings in exchange for a “scoring forward” because that team can’t buy a goal. PA??? plus whoever.
In other rumor news....
Pierre Turgeon coming out of retirement for one last season with the Isles. He decided he wanted to turn this ship around himself. He found a time machine to bring back the Turgeon of 92-93. The machine wouldn’t go back far enough to get Bossy or Trottier. One could only imagine…
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
What are those scuff marks on the colisuem floor, you ask?
Why, thats where Pierre moved the time machine because the Morlocks had taken it inside the Sphinx in the far future, and this way Pierre could reappear outside of it and with the 92-93 Islanders.
hahahaha sweet
7:01 pm – Islanders program Zamboni to reach 88 mph.
7:03 pm – Islanders announce 1993 Darius Kasparaitis on defense.
7:08 pm – Gary Bettman’s door is kicked in by Mario Lemieux, raving in French, with a gun in one hand and a bottle of Jack Daniels in the other.
7:11 pm – League amends CBA to forbid “time-space violations” and fines Islanders $1,000,000.
7:15 pm – Trevor Gillies delivers a million-dollar bill to league headquarters. It is dated “2036,” has a picture of President Justin Timberlake, and is wrapped around a brick.
7:17 pm – Bettman is about to start docking draft picks until Brendan Shanahan reminds him that the Isles still have the Zamboni, and could go back in time and make sure Bettman’s parents never met.
7:22 pm – The team and the NHL compromise, and the Isles agree to stop their time-travel scouting program, and start their next homestand in a state-of-the-art 18,000 seat Nassau Veteran’s Memorial Arena that nobody can remember being approved or built. Hempstead Township Chief Executive Bob Nystrom tells people to not be silly, it was built over the summer, and they expect a sellout when the Hartford Whalers visit next Thursday.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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by mikb on Jan 4, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 8 recs
Goodness, Mike
You’re on fire in here!
I will have to remember “time-space violations.”
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I wouldn't, honestly
I’m not sure that boy will ever learn his way around his own zone.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Mostly the contract
I mean, I think it’s worth investigating a splurge on a puck mover with defensive issues. It’s just that JJ seems particularly and consistently foolish in his own end, and I don’t know if that stems from what Lombardi whined about with his college prep, from his coaching, from a young kid learning, or an innate flaw.
But it would make me nervous having that at that rate for 7 years. Not that it’s a definitive stat (and his advanced numbers offer concern, too), but he’s been a minus all his career even when his team is a plus and even when he’s not handling the toughest opposition.
I fear it would be paying Streit money to some hybrid of Streit and Mottau.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Well, let's see if you're thinking that way when:
I get a hold of the time traveling zamboni, go back 200 years, beat the Rockefellers and Vanderbilts and Steve Jobs to the market, come back to the near past, outbid Charles Wang for the team, never hire Mike Milbury, but do hire you and say, “In 2012 you will take Jack Johnson and his 7 year contract with $4.3M cap hit.” How important is “his own zone” then? Hm?
Is he paired with
Chara?
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
You mean 3 time Conn Smyth winner ZDENO Chara?
Yes. But only because Islanders Captain Nik Lidstrom, who was obtained in a brilliant trade 6 years ago, decided to retire after winning his fifth straight cup.
by Les Beaver on Jan 4, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm all in on JJ
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
I was a little bit of a shitshow still in '01
If you want to get at me in ‘96…or maybe ’93 right after I met Turgeon and give me a good talking-to, I’d appreciate it.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Tell you what, we'll do this Doctor Who style.
I’ll visit you every year around Christmas, starting from when you’re born, then when you’re ready, you let me know, and we rebuild this dynasty thing. No worries. Just remember “JJ in 2012”.
And JJ is not Joensuu. Very important.
That would ruin everything.
by Les Beaver on Jan 4, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Just to clarify
not Jorgen Jonsson either right?
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Jan 4, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Be careful, Keith
If you kill a butterfly while time travelling, you might cause a zombie apocalypse. Or draft Patrik Stefan.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 4, 2012 10:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
"that would ruin everything"
starting to sound like The Ramifications of Yes commercial
cue zombies and Wang punchlines.
Good god no jack johnson.
He doesn’t know how to play defense correctly and he’s a frigging defenseman. He can improve, but it’s unlikely it will be that substantial.
If you guys didn’t like Wiz’s decison making in on D, you guys will “hate” Jack Johnson’s decision making on D. He earned his negative plus minus seasons in “every” year of his career: -19, -18, -15, -21, and on the verge of a -18 this year. Jack Johnson has a bad contract for what he brings to the table. Don’t let the offensive stats fool you, he isn’t a quality top 4 d-man.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
by OzzyFan on Jan 5, 2012 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
But he's a defenseman that doesn't play for the Islanders
which means he’s coveted by Islanders fans everywhere.
"He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent. On Twitter: @Dan_of_Science
by PGI on Jan 5, 2012 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting point on the DP rumor
Kevin Schultz @Schultz88 3m
Final word on RDP rumor mill: rumor cited DiPietro’s agent. DiPietro doesn’t have one. Represented by father and himself. #checkandmate
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Jan 4, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
IB wrong?!
Everyone gasp in disbelief!
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Jan 4, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
classic! InaccurateBob strikes again.
btw, there is a guy on twitter named InaccurateBob. occasionally i read skim read thru his stuff.
Unless
the agent in the rumor IS HIS FATHER.
by afrosupreme on Jan 4, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
You can destroy the NHL!
The Commissioner has foreseen it!
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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by mikb on Jan 4, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In Prospect news...
CdH makes AHL All Star team. Only BPT player to make it.
UVa Student. Twitter: @ericdavidmorris
by edavidmorris on Jan 4, 2012 4:35 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Nope I don't see us trading him
Though if we’re out of playoff contention by deadline, I could see us trade Streit to a team that needs a d-man, get something good for him like a prospect and call up CdH for rest of season
UVa Student. Twitter: @ericdavidmorris
Which has fallen in recent weeks, if I'm not mistaken
I’m pretty sure they were in the low 20s in late December.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Yes, I remember that too.
Although the raw number hasn’t fallen as much as the rank would suggest. The teams were pretty closely bunched in that part of the list. Right now the Fenwick close # is 47.46. I don’t remember what it was then.
not sure I agree
they are playing playoff style winning hockey – defense first, with enough offense
they may be hard to beat – what am I missing?
High shooting % and good goaltending hide a lot of problems. It is very, very rare for a team to sustain
a shooting % and save % as high as the Rangers have. It is much more likely to be the case that they’ve been lucky in these respects than that they are one of those exceedingly rare (probably more like non-existent) teams that can sustain these %s for an entire season. Granted Lundqvist is excellent but he has never been this good before. And the shooting %? I see no reason to believe that the Rangers have suddenly figured out what no other team in recent history has figured out about sustaining a shooting % that is significantly higher than the league average.
by TMS71 on Jan 4, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
they're almost half way there, no?
I mean they’ve been sustaining this high shooting and save %’s for a long while…
They are on pace for 115 points.
To say they arent good is an embarassingly ignorant statement.
BTW – Spend some time looking at underlying players trends and injuries on D and Hanks career stats. Way more ebidence suggesting they continue to win more than lose over remainder of season.
While Corsi/Fenwick are relevant, I’ll boil it down to this:
Would you bet the under if Vegas had regular season point total for NYR at 100?
by Gabby the Gutless Sniper on Jan 4, 2012 8:03 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Troll much?
I dont think TMS said they wont have a good season…Hes just saying that he doesnt expect the Rags to keep this up forever…They will come down to earth at the very least…I doubt they keep scoring at such a high %….But the Queen I wouldn’t put it past…That guy is good at keeping the puck out of the net…
by KO21 on Jan 4, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But even that isn't a given.
Hockey is a weird game of bounces. Sometimes no matter how bad you play, the pucks go in the net. Stats don’t tell the whole story all the time.
Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock...
by Turgeon1992 on Jan 4, 2012 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think we need to draw a distinction between "skill" and "success"
The Rangers are certainly one of the most successful teams of the first half. That gives them the cushion to get through whatever rough patch they may get through. But there are plenty of recent teams that have had great starts and declined radically when their luck turned.
Last year’s Dallas Stars were 29-13-5, a similar pace to this year’s Rangers. They were under NHL .500 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs. Atlanta opened 19-11-5. Big tease, that. The Oilers opened this season 8-2-2; of course a smaller sample but they had been last overall two straight years. More recently, the Wild have lost 8 straight (0-5-3) directly after winning 7 straight.
Those things just tend to even out, and it’s likely that the Rangers have gotten results in excess of their playing strength. They’re not lousy, but they’re not the best team in the NHL.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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by mikb on Jan 4, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I think the Rangers are winning because they're playing smart, simple hockey.
They’re not super talented, per se, but they play a nice game of hockey. Shit. Now I need to run to the dry cleaners to get this vomit and these tears off my sweater. BRB.
by Les Beaver on Jan 4, 2012 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
LOL
And it’s true, they get those results by playing to their strengths and keeping it simple.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
by mikb on Jan 4, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and doing it every night...
Helps having the leagues best goal scorer and one of the leagues best goalies…
agreed
But ultimately, as one of the greatest coaches in sports once said:
“you are what your record says you are”…
Believe it or not I agree. I'm just skeptical. Sometimes teams do get lucky for stretches.
Even 37 game stretches. See Dallas last year or Colorado the year before. Anyway George makes a pretty compelling case that they’re better than their Fenwick close % suggests because of the dismal 1st 9 games and they really do have elite goaltending (which I didn’t dispute but I’m not sure Lundqvist is quite this good).
I hope they start coming down to earth...
Thats for sure…It makes the isles sucking much more bearable when the Rags suck too…
I have to look, but Minnesota looked a lot more like Dallas/Colorado. Those teams didn’t put up a +31 goal differential in 37 games, they were hovering around +5 to +10 (I believe), and were really riding their goaltending, which wasn’t that good (though Lehtonen is underrated)
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Hes not the goalie to worry about, Biron is.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
Agree
for someone who rarely got into the 910 or better range during his career, his numbers are ridiculous. Rags should try trading him
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by Mark D on Jan 4, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, wouldn’t do that. He’s cost friendly and could be a starter in case of dsaster. That wouldn’t be true of most guys they could replace him with now. They just can’t expect to keep winning 2-1 w/ him
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
I’m not sure the NHL or even he is under the impression he could be a high quality full time starter any more, but in an emergency, he could be manageable…especially if you guys get Staal and Sauer back healthy.
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Lundqvists career save % is .920, so far this year .937. His career best is .923. Their team
shooting % is 10.3, best in the league while the league average is 8.8%. That is a huge difference. They need 48 pts in 45 gms to get to 100. That’s 1.06/gm. The league average is 1.108/gm so they could do it being almost 0.1pts/gm worse than average the rest of the way. I don’t think they’re even that good. If I was forced to bet over/under 100pts either way I’d bet the under.
by TMS71 on Jan 4, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's been longer than 3 weeks.
Over their last 19 games (since Nov 25th):
Close situations, Fenwick 52.0%, PDO: 101.8 (7.8 sh%)
Tied Situations: Fenwick 53.3, PDO 100.2 (6.1 sh%)
All situations: Fenwick 50.8, PDO 103.0 (9.1sh%)
Over their last 28 games (since Oct 31st):
Close situations, Fenwick 50.2%, PDO: 102.6 (8.3 sh%)
Tied Situations: Fenwick 51.9, PDO 102.8 (7.5 sh%)
All situations: Fenwick 49.3, PDO 103.7 (9.5 sh%)
Thats from TOI so includes 4v4, so given Gabe’s numbers, they’re probably slightly higher by sh% there. Point is, a lot of that boost in PDO is coming from early season luck and score effects situations (getting leads and taking advantage of better opportunities when other teams start taking more risks defensively).
No, they’re not going to compete for the Pres. Trophy, nor are they in the class of the Bruins/RedWings/Blackhawks.
“Not a good hockey team” is false though. This isn’t the Minnesota Wild. They’re a good team playing great b/c of their goaltender. They can play Avalanche hockey down the stretch and still hit 100 points. Given that Fenwick has been trending up since their first 9 abysmal games (Fentied of 42.4, FenOverall 42.1, just miserably bad), the concern isn’t as strong as it typically would be.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
the big concern is the NYR have peaked too early
one of Al Arbour’s aphorisms.
you don’t want to be hitting this stride in December.
mid-April to late May/June is the time to post impressive stats and have it mean something special.
good point
Im hoping thats whats happening with the Football Giants…They have momentum going into the playoffs…
George, I have a question
In terms of PDO/Corsi, obviously a lucky/high PDO can get teams through a bad stretch of corsi and vice versa…the hope probably is that the rough/good times work in a way that you are still squeaking out wins.
But what is the sample size of team corsi that is large enough to know exactly what a team is so it can be predictive enough where you can say “If they play at (X) PDO, they will be fine”?
I guess point being that PDO fluctuations are probably more volatile than corsi fluctuations right?
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by Keith Quinn on Jan 4, 2012 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve been told 30 gms is enough for Corsi. Based on this article, that seems to be right. That said, it still only explains ~48% of winning percentage going forward.
As for PDO, one of the issues I always have a hard time grasping is that teams are always expected to play at a PDO of 100, no matter what the previous games have said. As an extreme example for a counter argument, a team full of Kovalchuks (proven to have true shooting% skill) + an elite goaltender (say, .930 ES sv%) should have a talent level of around 102-103PDO. I’d argue if they were playing at 100, they’re underperforming.
Basically, I don’t like that PDO assumes that goaltending is uniform, when it’s clearly not.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
Right, Lundqvist's career sv% is .920 so if the Rangers shoot 8.8% they'll have a PDO of 1.008 in his
games. And Biron seems like he’s on his game this year too. But I don’t buy the shooting %. You mentioned score effects but 10.3 vs 8.8 is a huge difference and I’m pretty sure most of it is luck. So their ‘true talent PDO’ is probably about 1.006 (Biron is not as good as Lundqvist) I think.
Lundqvist career ES SV% (which is what PDO would use) is well above .920. IIRC, it was around .927 coming into this season.
Also, there’s no reason Lundqvist can’t post a .930-.935 this year at ES. Thomas, Rinne, Luongo, and that just taking quick peak, all posted .930 seasons with less of a pedigree (at the time) than Lundqvist.
I don’t buy them as a 10.3% shooting team either, but look at those shooting% in close games. Based on those numbers, they’re converting a ridiculous amount of shots either when down 2 or up 2 (or up 1/down 1 in the 3rd). There’s a lot of luck in that, but I’m pretty sure somewhere out there BTN had an article around sh% increasing as a result of score effects.
I put up an article already about the dangers of their PDO. At the time, they had a 10 game average where their sh% was 7%, which came after the early season where they were shooting around 12%. Last 10 games they’re at 8.82% sh%.
As I said, I’m not claiming they’re the elite of the NHL. They’re not a bottom dweller hiding under percentages though. They have an elite goalie with likely an average to slightly above average team (by possession and shooting). That’s a good enough combination to keep them on pace all year. Not for 115, but I think anything under 100 at this point would require a serious, serious downswing. One much worse than the upswing they’ve had thus far.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They were in Europe
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Time differences
bigger rinks, lethargy…I’m pretty sure they also had camp over there.
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Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
As a matter of fact
The Ducks, Kings and Sabres also started there and started slow right? Kings and Ducks still severely underperforming (shouldn’t still blame it on that, but minus a slow start???)
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Okay Kings leading divison so that's kind of a no go
but considering how often people talk about adjustments to NHL rinks etc…that really could be a bit of a factor for teams.
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Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
The Rangers had camp there too and then MSG renovations weren't finished
when they got home. That’s a long time away from home.
perhaps the biggest worry for the Rangers is a letdown
Europe to start the season, getting hot, first place in the East, the Winter Classic success
timing can be everything
and the defense isn’t that good – but man are they ever blocking shots – the end of the 2nd period vs the Islanders on Dec 26 was outstanding on this regard – Rangers blocking everything, hobbling around
was amazing to see – playoff style hockey success
PS the MSG renovations aren’t close to finished
Defense isn’t good with Woywitka-Bickel as a bottom pair certainly.
A defense of Staal-Girardi-McDonagh-Sauer-(the good) Del Zotto, and some combo of Stralman/Eminger/Woywitka should be quite good.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
a healthy Staal/Sauer + the underrated Girardi & McDonagh (both are truly first rate) + Del Zotto who has been much better this year, is probably enough
the health of the top 4 here is the key
going into the season was convinced the D was a weakness – hasn’t been a problem yet
The Ducks are a terrible team. They weren’t very good last year either, but they had Hiller and Perry went into beast mode down the stretch to push them in.
Dunno how to explain the Kings/Sabres though, especially LA who I thought would contend this year.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LA has the worst shooting % in the league a 5.9%. That's their problem.
Probably its mostly bad luck.
Miller's been really off this year
Bad goaltending hurts more than good goaltending helps. (Without Enroth playing well they’d be in huge trouble.)
But there’s also been falloff all over the Buffalo roster. Just by a quick+dirty look, I see their PP and PK are both above the league averages; they are taking the piss at evens right now. Also, they had eleven folks with 10+ goals last year, but only six on that pace this year. Stafford and Roy in particular have dropped off the pace.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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Decent amount of injuries, too
By the sounds of it. (I haven’t paid too close attention to Buffalo, but that many injuries can throw a wrench in things.)
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
The Rags success doesn't surprise me 1 bit. I had the Smurfs winning the division.
You guys with a bad Gaborik hurt 1/4 of the year, a hurt callahan for a 1/4 of the year, and no Richards made it into 8th place last year. I think it’s extremely fathomable that you “at least” be considered for a 6th overall finish with most of everything clicking, top 4 in the east finish imo with everything clicking.
What surprises me the most is that the rags are doing so good without Staal, a top 30 d-man in the NHL. Add a 100% him to your lineup and Sauer on depth and you guys could realistically win the East this year with what you’ve done so far and the surprises from some players you’ve had. And if Lundqvist gets any kind of hot, you guys could take the cup.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Europe
plus traveling all the way West immediately afterward waiting for the Garden to get shiny, right? I could see that having an effect.
This is a really enjoyable subthread, btw.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Corsi/Fenwick only explain ~48% going forward but most of the remaining 52% is luck. I don't
remember the percentages but I think goaltending talent and shotting talent are only 11%.
Yeah, that was another question I was wondering about
clearly a team like the Bruins would have a different PDO baseline than the Isles…is there a sample size for a baseline on that? I mean, the “mean” may be uniform within the league as a whole, but the individual teams have to have at least a small level of variability between them no?
That’s why I’d even be uncomfortable even predicting that some teams would regress (pos or neg) because this stat is relatively new and the teams themselves are constantly changing due to injury and roster turnover. It must be pretty difficult to accurately find a team’s center.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
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Yes but mostly in goaltending talent. There is really very little variability in shooting talent at the team
level. Its really quite remarkable and counterintuitive but high and low shooting %s regress to the mean like you wouldn’t believe.
I know goaltending % spikes
when DP is out of the lineup…so that’s at least predictable.
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Yeah those first 9 games really skew it. I have to keep that in mind. There's no justification for disregarding them
but they really seem to stand out from the subsequent games. Have they had anyone return from injury around the 9 game mark? Or did anyone get injured?
Yeah, it’s hard to understand, but I think the travel early played a role. They were in Europe a lot longer than the Kings and Ducks prior to their first two games, I have to imagine being away from home for 3 weeks takes it’s toll. Then after they came back, while they were in NY, they played that road game then an entire Canada swing. I just don’t think they were conditioned to deal with that. I think that explains the two clunkers at home too, especially the OTT game where they blew a 3 goal lead to the Sens.
Game 9 was also when they cut off the Tim Erixon experiment on the bottom pair, and put Woywitka in the lineup. Erixon had miserable possession numbers in that first stretch, so I’d imagine he played a role.
The 19 game split there is when Hagelin was called up. He’s been a possession dynamo, and his whole line (him-Boyle-Mitchell) were running at 65-70% with 40% zone starts. Just ridiculous stuff.
I agree that you couldn’t discount the first 9 games early on, but as the season rolls on, I think it’s less about what that team looked like, and more about what the team is doing now. They’re playing like a great (not elite) team with a crazy-high PDO, which is putting them at the elite level in the standings.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Those possession numbers for that line are remarkable. Ditching dead weight and bringing in
major positive contributors is something that makes sense for accounting for the difference. And the renovation of MSG thing. No real home games for a while. They must have felt like nomads.
They also called up Avery around game 10 (didn’t clear til game 12 I believe), which some people are clinging to still. Obviously, I don’t buy it, though Avery played ok in his limited minutes.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Avery is the Rangers Micheal Haley. That's hilarious. Check out the
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Gameday: Greetings, New Patrick Brothers post. We owe a great deal of our limited success the last 2 years to Micheal Haley it seems.
4th liners = success is one of the great myths in all of hockey. At best they don’t kill you.
At worst, they do what the Oilers 4th line has been doing the last 5 games or so, getting matched against non-4ths and being murdered.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
yup
They’re around to rest good players an extra 6-10 minutes so they can be at their best, and not cough up too many goals. If they pot a few here and there it’s found money.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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I’ve often wished that Fedotenko-Boyle-Prust would be our 4th line, with skill guys on the 3rd, though we’re closer to that now than ever before. In my mind, that’s what a cup-winning 4th line would look like. 20-30 point, defensive minded guys, with enough grit to make the casual fan happy.
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
That would be a good fourth line
Whereas, the Isles had to play Tank on their second line, 16+ min per night.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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When you introduce a guy in a press conference
along with Guerin and Comrie like the Angels were introducing Pujols and Wilson, you kind of HAVE to play him on the 2nd line, deserved or not
Ok, so 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 weren't our years. There's always 2012!
by Chris McNally on Jan 4, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
Well, we were doing that this year too, he played with Richards a lot before it was noticed that he’s been terrible (Hagelin’s play thankfully helped point that out)
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by George E. Ays on Jan 4, 2012 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Ben Eager gifted us a win on Sunday
Went after Martin twice after clean hits…ended with Martin laughing, Isles getting two PP goals, and Martin eventually getting the dagger bad angle shot to cap it off.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
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Exactly George
When you put together a 4th line, you put together a 4th line that will matchup against the other teams 4th line and hold their own.
The only time you have players that make a difference on the 4th line are guys that prove theyre more than 4th liners and end up getting moved up to the 3rd line. Nobody won or lost a game bc of who they had playing on the 4th line that game. Maybe they play poorly from time to time but its not like the other options would be guaranteed to play any better
Ok, so 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 weren't our years. There's always 2012!
by Chris McNally on Jan 4, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
They were
25th on 12/27. But the differences are small enough between the teams there, that moving a handful of places is probably pretty meaningless. Gaining or losing a full point would be more meaningful and would vault them into the top 20, or down closer to league worst.
Interestingly, their PDO has been rising, but is still low. We’ve had better luck, but can probably expect some more (hello last night!) as the season goes on.
by afrosupreme on Jan 4, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Too true
Been noticing how close the actual margin is there in the 20s.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Interesting game from Paul Bissonette
Paul Bissonnette @BizNasty2point0 1h
When teamates do call-in radio interviews I give them random words they must say during the interview. Very entertaining to listen to.
5:44 PM – 4 Jan 12 via Twitter for iPhone · Details
Paul Bissonnette @BizNasty2point0 41m
Next time a guy gets interviewed I’ll try and tweet the random words b4 hand so fans can follow along. Yandle and I did it a lot last year.
6:08 PM – 4 Jan 12 via Twitter for iPhone · Details
Paul Bissonnette @BizNasty2point0 30m
Examples. Well today one of my teamates had to say our cab drivers full name Enrique Sanchez, the words “marinate”, and “very loose”.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
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We used to play this on conference calls.
Some words I recall were “juxtapose”, “ubiquitous” and “massive.”
by Les Beaver on Jan 4, 2012 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I love it
This is like buzzword bingo. Fantastic. These little peeks into the clubhouse life of a pro hockey team are like crack to a hockey junkie like myself.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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DP Insurance tag
Dee Karl @7thWoman
@mattclausen @_SophiaK Okay – hold on about that. I know the contract is insured in 5 year rolling increments. Not sure who pays for it
Dee Karl @7thWoman
@mattclausen @_SophiaK If the insurance is actually paid for by the club then no, he wouldn’t. if it comes out of RDPs pay, then maybe
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
My understanding is that both teams *and* players are encouraged to take out insurance
(players encouraged by their agents). But I don’t know enough about our nation’s magnificent insurers to figure how much risk is shared by whom.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Im a Cholie Maw Fan
I’m even on his email list…He is the Mad Fisherman and used to do a show called “Beat Charlie Moore” where celebs and other pro fisherman or just avg joes challenge him to a 1 on 1 fishing tourny…Usually for large mouth bass…Charlie is a clown and a huge fan of everything Boston which annoys me, lol…I have a feeling he will be wearing a Boston Bruins Jersey or at least a hat…Hopefully Cappy wears some Isles paraphernalia…That would be fun…
Poulin
just posted his 2nd consecutive shutout.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
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by Keith Quinn on Jan 4, 2012 9:09 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
WHOOO!
:D
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 4, 2012 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Is it ok for me to hope outloud
that his improved form continues and Nabokov is traded by February and we have Poulin and Montoya to finish out the season?
Ok, so 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 weren't our years. There's always 2012!
by Chris McNally on Jan 4, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
And number 18 had a goal, a helper and a plus 1.
"We owe him a lot more than he owes us at this point. He's been stellar all year. He still gave us a chance to win this one, and we've got to find a way."
—C Josh Bailey, on G Al Montoya after a 5-3 loss Tuesday in Montreal.
by BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Jan 5, 2012 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
START POULIN NEOW IN THE NHL!
TRADE NABBY AND MONTOYA, THE FUTURE IS HERE AND READY! :-)
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
by OzzyFan on Jan 5, 2012 2:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It has begun. And cappy has a big ass house in Maine!
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
by OzzyFan on Jan 5, 2012 9:03 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
