JP's December Plus/Minus, Poll
by JPinVA on Jan 3, 2012 11:07 AM EST
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PrintEditor's Note: This was a popular FanPost when JPinVA looked back at November, so here is his December version. It looks at the month that was (and what's ahead) in plus/minus style.
Also in the mode of looking ahead, afrosupreme returned with his monthly schedule outlook FanPost -- are there extra opportunities in January?
JP's December 2011 plus/minus:
TEAM STATS
- (RECORD) 6-6-2 14 pts. in 14 games. Their 1 point per game (PPG) was a little better than their .77 PPG in November and October, but not nearly the 1.17 PPG they will need to be a playoff team. They have also lifted the bar for the rest of the season. They will probably need 96 (or 1.17 PPG) to make the playoffs, as they now have 32 pts. in 36 games. They will need 64 points in their next 46 games or a pace around 1.40 PPG. That would be a record of 30-10-6 over that period. It’s not likely.
+ (Goals For) 39. This was a vast improvement over November’s 25 goals and a little better than last December’s 36 goals. Their goal for this month should be closer to last February’s 51 in 14 games or March 2011’s 46 in 15. 39 was a sign of life, but they need to be above a 3 goals per game clip.
- (Goals Against) 43. This was only slightly better than the last month’s 46 or last December’s 45. The team should be letting up goals at a clip closer to 2.50. The best two months in the past two years have been OCT 2011(2.44) and MAR 2011(2.67). The goals for reflects upon the defense, but this is a real barometer for the thin defense this team has had over the past two year.
- (Goal Diff) -4 (-.29) This was a huge improvement over November 2011 (-1.62) and December 2010 (-.64). The team needs to turn this around in January to be positive. That is some thing they were only able to do in February and March of last year. Somehow improving the defensive corps in January (Trade or promotions) should make that a little better. We are already seeing improvement in the play of some forwards like Okposo and Tavares… and roster upgrades such as Ullstrom and Wallace. Getting Reese and deHaan to the NHL will definitely help… but who knows when they’ll be ready to consistently replace Eaton, Mottau and Staios.
SPECIAL TEAMS
+ PP 11/47 (23%) The powerplay was back in December. Rolston missed 5 games (where they were 25%) and Weight seemed to get their puck movement to focus less on shots from the point and more towards getting players open down low. The resurgence of John Tavares’ play later in the month also contributed to the unit’s effectiveness.
+ PK 33/39 (85%) The PK was also back to an effective rate. They are not producing SH goals like they were at their best last year, but the unit is performing effectively again. Much better than November’s 77%.
THIS YEAR vs. LAST YEAR (DECEMBER)
+ (Record) 6-6-2(14) v 6-7-1(13) (+1 PTS)
+ (PP) 11/47 (23%) v 8/48(17%)
+ (PK) 33/39(85%) v 48/60(80%)
GOALTENDING
+ Al Montoya 3-2-1 performed well when healthy. He was run by Evander Kane on 12/20 and has missed the last 5 games.
+ Evgeni Nabokov was injured for most of the month, but has taken over the number one role since Montoya has been sidelined. He is 2-3 in the games since Al went down, but he has played well in all but one.
- Dipietro played one game, did not look very good, and was pulled because of a groin injury. He had no problem jumping over the boards though to congratulate Montoya after the game. If both Montoya and Nabokov can maintain their health Dipietro’s season should be over.
+ Poulin played one game in an emergency situation. He performed adequately in a 3-2 defeat where he stopped 26 of 29. He has been playing better in the AHL and even though Nilsson has been backing up in the NHL, Kevin will probably be their emergency goaltender should they lose Montoya and Nabokov simultaneously.
FORWARDS
30-GOAL CLUB
+ John Tavares (13-18-31/-7)(5-10-15/-2) JT started and ended December very well. He had a career highlight goal against Calgary and a career highlight dish to Moulson to finish off the month. Throughout the month and the season his performance has been at an ALL STAR level, though his production has had highs and lows. If this team ever ices a consistent PLUS defensive corps together JT will put up elite forward stats. He’s almost there now.
+ Matt Moulson (17-14-31/+3)(9-9-18/+3) A 9 goal and 18 point month should throw some light on Matt Moulson and the all-star game. All he’s done is score at a 30 goal pace (he’s now on a 40G pace) the last three years. Not only that he is a PLUS player on a team that only has 2 others (Ullstrom and Calvin de Haan). If Matty Mo was playing for any other team in the league he’d be a hockey household name.
- Michael Grabner (10-6-16/-12)(3-2-5/-9) Grabner has fallen off the 30G radar. His lack of production has effected the teams SUPPORT SCORING drastically. All of the forwards have been effected by the teams lack of depth on defense, but it has hurt Grabner and his linemates the most. Some time with Josh Bailey may help. After a shakeup at the end of the month Grabs had his first PLUS game to end December.
POSITIVE
+ David Ullstrom played 9 games in December. He has basically replaced Blake Comeau as the third line LW wing, but was injured in the 12/20 game against Winnipeg. He should be back early in 2012 and move that line, possibly with Bailey and Parentau up to second line status. He was 2-1-3/+1 in December and a bright spot as a rookie forward.
+ PA Parentau (7-25-32/-4)(4-12-16/+2) Another good month for PA. He is on a good 20G, 70P pace. He has been a constant catalyst on any line he has found himself on. The latest shakeup has him with Nielsen and Rolston, and he finished December 1-3-4 in 2 games with those linemates. I have a feeling they will move him up with Bailey and Ullstrom, to reunite grabner with Nielsen in a more defensive role when Ullstrom returns. The speculation on whether or not to resign PA should start soon… with the angle of using him as a chip for a top four defensive prospect also being put on the table. Either way, PA has earned his keep as an NHL forward and should be rewarded in July.
+ Kyle Okposo (6-9-15/-14)(4-5-9/-7) We are starting to see the 2008-09/2009-10 Kyle start to bubble out of that 2010-11 post injury Kyle. The FNGO has not been able to play above their defensive support, but Kyle has been a bright spot on that line. His one-on-one play has been fun to watch and he’s starting to be aggressive with his shot decisions, and his destination choices… KYLE IS GOING TO THE NET MORE. He has been rewarded with the latest line shake-up and this very well could be a permanent #1 line for the Isles. PA has done nothing wrong, but Kyle’s talents and Tonelli-esque board work should mesh well with open ice playmaking JT and space finding finisher Moulson. This is something to look FORWARD to in 2012!
NEGATIVE
- Brian Rolston (4-4-8/-4)(1-1-2/0) This is worth $5 million? If those stats were on Kyle Okposo or Frans Nielsen I’d say it was due to defensive responsibilities, because their play far exceeds their production. But those stats fit Brian Rolston like a tailored suit. He was supposed to be the consistent third piece to the Comeau+Bailey puzzle, but all he did was muck up whatever they had going last year with whoever they played with (Joensuu, Martin, Schremp…) He’s been moved to a line with Nielsen and Parenteau, and hopefully will be moved to the press box when David Ullstrom returns. Wallace brings more every night, and I’d hate to lose him as a fourth line presence just so Rolston can finish out his career as a fourth liner. He was brought in to teach the young forwards how to win… what he’s taught them is how to collect a huge pay check while firing shots from all over the place without putting much effort into improving your position. Rolston needs to be ex-Isled ASAP!
DEFENSEMEN
+ Travis Hamonic (1-8-9/-4)(1-6-7/+6) His partner (Amac) was out for the first half of December, but that didn’t slow down Travis. He has been the shutdown force at 21 that some guys don’t become until they are in their late 20’s… and he looks like he needs to show ID to get into R rated movies. This has been an incredible stats month for Travis. It was difficult to accumulate stats with a Macdonald early, as Andrew was slow to recover from his surgery. Then he was paired with captain Mark Streit, and that was not much better. But through the first three months of the season Travis has been the #1 defenseman on this club… something he shouldn’t be asked to be, but he has handled it like an ALL-STAR! Now that Andrew is back, and looking a lot more like the 2010-11 Amac, they should be able to handle the top responsibilities again. It would be nice to have a little more support, but Travis and Andrew have done a great job.
- Mark Streit (2-16-18/-18)(0-6-6/-7) I’m going to put most of the blame on slow recovery from injury. I think we all have seen enough of the good Mark Streit to accept this period of the less than mediocre Mark Streit. Due to their lack of obtaining top four defensive support, Streit has been asked to do way too much in his current state. But 2 goals at this point of the season is unacceptable with all of the PP time he gets. You can’t put it on his partners either. Staios, though not the greatest of offensive defensemen and definitely not in his prime, has performed at a higher than expected level. When Staios and Macdonald were out Hamonic far exceeded the performance of Streit when they were paired, and Jurcina has carried his weight and some of Streit’s in their partnership. Streit needs some time off. Hopefully 2012 will bring some more confidence in the AHL defensive corps or a deal for some help on the blue line. Streit needs a rest.
GENERAL OBSERVATONS
POSITIVE
+ When fully healthy the defense has been better, and the replacements (Reese and de Haan) looked okay while they were here. A group that allows Mottau to get acquainted with the press box is definitely a positive.
+ This was probably coach Capuano’s toughest month in the NHL. It was the first time he has really faced adversity after success. It was actually the first time any coach has been in that situation since Ted Nolan, because Gordon never really had any success with the poor roster he was given. Though most of the month was layered with frustration and the inability to find a way to win with the ingredients he had, he found some positives in the mix, and gives us hope for 2012. The promotion of Ullstrom to replace Comeau seems to have a positive future… though I think if replaced Rolston things would have been a whole lot better in October and November. Wallace, instead of Pandolfo is also a plus. The team is playing good physical hockey without taking excessive penalties and working with their strengths while trying to hide their weaknesses. That’s all a coach can do.
+ People are starting to come back to watch. This is an opportunity that should not be lost. If they turn things around in December they might have a very good 2012.
NEGATIVE
- The playoff outlook is even BLEAKER. As noted above, the pace they’d have to maintain to challenge for a playoff spot is not even in the realm of my imagination.
- Garth Snow. I don’t think I have to rehash my 12/29 BS rants, but I will just note that the December "State of the Islanders" video Q&A revealed a lot of agenda spinning. The reasoning behind not re-signing Martinek and Hillen when your only answer is Steve Staios is an epic fail. The waiving of Blake Comeau for NOTHING, when you have available roster room, but would cost you the remaining portion of his $2.5M salary just tells us that they will not be willing to use their most abundant resource (CAP SPACE) for a missing piece this season. They took on SALARY to make the cap floor with Brian Rolston, but are unwilling to keep it so that they might be able to shuttle Rick Dipietro to Bridgeport and give the young goalies a shot in the second half. Garth Snow’s asset management has been HORRIBLE!
I love the rebuild plan, but he has no Step Two plan. The organization is devoid of top four defenders, and he has no answer but "patience." The starting point was just way too thin to say, be patient. Of his two biggest defensive acquisitions, Mark Streit has taken a giant step backwards because of injury, and Calvin de Haan has had a slow progression into the professional ranks because of injuries. If not for Travis Hamonic this team would be in a hole so deep the 2012 preseason could be played in china with not much travel at all.
- A quick look at the Islanders home attendance vs their road attendance is a pretty good indicator that this team will not be on Long island very much longer. The team plays to bigger crowds in non-hockey cities than their building could even hold… and they can’t even fill their ~16K seat arena. Any thought that goes into moving the Islanders to another NY venue will take that into consideration, and I believe this is why the subject has been muted for such long stretches. They can’t even give tickets away.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN JANUARY
The playoffs are pretty much out of the question. The team can get back to respectability though. They have had some great nights by their top line, and a progression by sub-25YO prospects. A good second half by Ullstrom, Nino and maybe one of the highly touted defensive prospects(dehaan, Donovan, Katic), or even an appearance or two by Rhett or casey could give 2012 some spark.
The trade deadline. They have two very attractive expiring contracts. Snow would do well to extend both, but he may be able to fix a deep organizational problem by trading either. The hot stove will be interesting to watch in the following months. It won’t be fun though, because losing Nielsen or Parenteau would be hard to take.
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December
was a nice surprise in total given the schedule, though the two three-game losing streaks were extremely frustrating.
I know I’m late to the party, but I’m really wondering how much of the poor asset management is part of a squeeze coming down from Wang. There wasn’t a good reason to not carry 7 defensemen for that long stretch there except to save money. While I didn’t really mind losing Comeau, not letting him play his way out via trade also looks like a money saving device since, as you say, he easily could have been press boxed for a while. Same with not adding Hillen for depth. So many moves seem predicated on pinching pennies, that it’s hard for me to tell if it’s the chicken or the egg when it comes to Garth.
I don't think there's any question that each and every penny gets counted
And I find it hard to blame Wang with all of the money he has been bleeding through this franchise. Still, as a fan, it sucks.
Damn statistics...
“They will need 64 points in their next 46 games or a pace around 1.40 PPG. That would be a record of 30-10-6 over that period. It’s not likely.”
Sometimes they are just a buzzkill.
THE COUNTDOWN
I guess the TRAGIC NUMBER is 10. They basically have 10 losses to play with to get themselves back into the conversation they can only use three per month (JAN, FEB, MAR).
If they lose more than three games in any month they are OUT.
So let the countdown begin!
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
TRAGIC NUMBER is 10
Its 2012, perhaps tragedy can strike other teams. Injuries could play a huge part in other team’s playoff push. I am NOT saying the Isles have a legitamate shot at the playoffs. Nor do I say season over, there is still a lot of hockey to be played.
We are all Islanders, even if we’re from Jersey!
by Russel Ginart on Jan 3, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
JP, how accurate is this number
and I’m not trying to be an ass here, I know that the 96 number was thrown around at the beginning of the season, but is the rest of the league still on that pace or are you using the beginning of the season number?
Not that I would really know how to figure that out mind you, just a thought. As bad as the outlook is, there is still some chance and probability for regression from some of those above (and below), so right now, I still have to feel like it’s possible.
Just seems so shitty to think that four games under .500 and your season is done. It doesn’t seem like much you know?
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Jan 3, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Winnepeg
sitting in the 8 spot is on pace for 92.7 points, so we’d need 61 points in our last 46 games to hit 94, 1.3 per game.
The bigger problem for the Isles is not only the 11 points back, but the 6 teams they have to pass in the process. It’s almost impossible for all of those teams to collectively struggle enough for us to get ahead of them.
It sucks, but I go back to that Eliot Friedman piece-if you’re out to start November, you’re probably done for the year. We’ve been done for a while, but for once I don’t want to see them tank from here out. I’d like to see them continue to improve, play the young guys, cut the old fat, and hopefully add a piece or two before the end of February.
Well, then this system is complete shit
somebody should go back since the start of it to see just how many teams have come back from being “out of it” at the beginning of November to make the playoffs…because if it’s less than (arbitrary number I could throw out right now), it should be fixed.
You can’t have half of the NHL out of the playoffs by November…you just can’t. I mean, the NFL isn’t even decided within the first 20% of their games.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Yea
the extra point for OTWs probably makes it harder to climb back from early struggles. But, I’m not sure it’s the system that’s really at fault. I think there is also something to be said that despite a few extremes one way or another, how you play through the first month is probably how you will play the rest of the season. The Isles went 3-4-2 in October. They had some frustrating losses. That is still the team they are.
For the record, here’s what Friedman wrote:
Spent a few hours on Sunday looking up the post-lockout standings, picking the date of Nov. 1 for each year. During those six seasons, the difference between eighth place and last place in each conference ranged from four to eight points. That early, it’s difficult to create an incredible amount of separation.
Twenty teams who were not in the top eight on Nov. 1 recovered to make the playoffs. That’s an average of almost 3.5 per season. (Just to clarify, the “Top 8” includes any team with the same point total as the eighth-place team. I wasn’t going into tiebreakers so early in the season.)
Doesn’t seem so bad, right? Depends. The safety net shreds for anyone falling too far behind. Of those 20 teams, guess how many of them were more than three points out?
Two. That’s it.
too many variables
teams currently 6th through last in the East could easily tank or go on a run like the Devils did last year
this sort of scare tactic from JP is simply counterproductive
play each game, and if we win our share, we’ll be in the hunt – the rest is a waste of breath
WTF?
this sort of scare tactic from JP is simply counterproductive
Without trying to figure out the outcome of each game, all I’ve done is pick a realistic goal for the team. You can certainly lower the number, but the goal should be an quantitative number of standings points.
Some have said that 90 COULD get them in, and some have said 93. All I’m saying is that 96 WILL get them in.
They have to play the games. they have to win division and conference games… and they have to win them in regulation. This is not a “scare tactic”
You’re a very bright guy… so you know that the tie last night didn’t necessarily push their number up by one, but a SOW or OTW against MON, TOR, WIN… does.
No FEAR FACTOR there… just saying that at this point int he season, here is a goal, and here is what you need to do to reach it.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
by JPinVA on Jan 4, 2012 8:43 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I always just assume
If you’re crap in November, chances are you’re crap and will remain so barring the one or two exceptions you get every now and then.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
In general I'd agree with that
but the couple of factors that I’d think would counter that argument are injuries, youth and strength of schedule (home/away)…you would figure that as outliers, those would once in a while pop up…and those are probably the two teams Friedman is talking about…which still seems too low.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
the Peg
figures to do worse in the second half – they have been playing on a high due their existence
90 points should be just enough this year
Ottawa also figures to fold a bit – with all the injuries, concussions, etc. you just don’t know what uwill happen the rest of the year
we figure to be better – other teams worse – Ottawa & Winnipeg’s playoff spots are hardly assured
ON PACE #s
Thats like close only counting in horse shoes and hand grandes. ON PACE is good for insurance companies and bookies in my book.
We are all Islanders, even if we’re from Jersey!
by Russel Ginart on Jan 3, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
What will this week's schedule tell us?
The next three games are against weaker teams and are all very winnable. Suppose the Isles win all three and emerge from the week only one game under NHL .500 (16-17-6)?
As exciting as that may sound, the sad reality is that this team has simply not shown itself to be capable of playing at a clip significantly in excess of .500. They may beat teams like Carolina and Phoenix but not Detroit and Philadelphia. Look at it this way: this season’s Isles are a .500 team. On paper that may look like progress over last season (9 games under .500) but for those of us who took the second half of last season as the baseline, not so much.
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Jan 3, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
This week
Can’t make the season, but surely can break it.
First, if you can’t get 4 points from 2 teams actually worse than you in the standings, then (in my best Jim Mora voice) Playoffs????
Carolina already finished chunk 4, going a respectable 4-4-2 in games 31-40. They scored 2.6 and gave up 3.1 per game. Their PP was 6/34 (about average) but their PK was only 21/27.
Anaheim is only 7 games (so far) into the 4th 10, posting a 1-5-1 16/28 so far.
So these 2, while not being mathematic must wins, certainly are psycholoical must wins. Sure, they could drop one or both and still have a chance to make a huge late season run… but only John Spano could buy that.
After disposing of the first 2, Phoenix is a must win only because they went 11-6-3 57/49 in their first 20, and in the last 19 are 8-10-1 45/54. You need to be able to beat an OK team when they are down.
Then Detroit.. is it a must win? It’s at home, hopefully on the heels of a 3-0-0 road trip, This is one where we can afford the ‘they stayed with them and didn’t get the bounce they need’ loss. They key is that we need to show we are capable of beating them and generating chances.
That would put us at 6-4 for games 31-40 and 16-18-6 for the season. To have any realistic chance the rest of the way, we’d need at least one 7-3 stretch and no worse than 6-3-1 the rest of the way.
If we can’t beat Carolina and Anaheim, then there’s just no way we’d be putting those numbers up the rest of the way against better competition.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
by Torgo on Jan 3, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
That seems kind of impossible
for this team. Especially with all of the PITs and PHIs in our schedule the rest of the way. For a while my view was that it wasn’t about the math, it was about the talent. Winning, say, 3 of every 5 games (or whatever the necessary pace is) doesn’t seem unrealistic except for the fact that this team is simply is not a .600 team. But pretty soon, it’s going to be about the math.
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Jan 3, 2012 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
That's exactly it
if you can’t beat the crap teams when you need to, why entertain the thought of consistently beating the better teams?
Boston went 3-7 in their first 10 games, but then followed that with a 10-0. There was never any real doubt that Boston wouldn’t get it together and start performing.
As for the Isles putting together a 10 game W streak… probably not even in the AHL.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
Games in hand
The Isles have games in hand vs. all the teams ahead of them up to the 6th seed. For example: they have 4 games in hand (GIH) on CAR (who is tied) 3 GIH on MONT, 2 GIH on TOR, BUFF, NJ and 1 GIH on TB. THESE are must win games. Its not over yet!!!
We are all Islanders, even if we’re from Jersey!
by Russel Ginart on Jan 3, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
wrong wrong wrong
the Rangers made the playoffs last year with 33 losses & 93 points
so we could in theory lose another 16 games or so
perhaps even more as there’s more parity this year, am assuming 90 points will be the cutoff
deHaan and Reese
(amazing how Reese jumped so much in most everyone’s esteem – including mine!)
They are ready, and have been, to outperform Eaton, Staios and Mottau. That, unfortunately, doesn’t say much. The question is whether any of the Bridgeport d-Men are ready to perform at an NHL level and have completed the AHL stage of their development. I don’t think Reese will improve at B-port, so he should be up. Wishart is probably as ready as he will be, too. deHaan and Donovan are probably better served with a little more AHL time but I’d like to see them come up to stay in a month or two.
It’s not a playoff year. Do what’s needed to evaluate and build for the future. Trade, eat contracts, make a silly move (McCabe??) to satisfy floor requirements but the youngsters should get some NHL time this year so everyone can see what’s really there.
Also, I note no negative for Nielsen — he has been a disappointment, but maybe it’s just a case of water seeking its own level. He’s a defensive forward and maybe he’s finding his way to a more natural role. Also Bailey, who is turning a negative into a neutral. Let’s see if he can be a second line center.
I don’t think Matty Mo will be an all-star. He (and JT) SHOULD, but I’m pretty sure NHL by-laws specify no Islanders on the all-star team.
Nielsen/Bailey
I didn’t see them as being on either side definitively. Nielsen, as you said, is in a role not fit for his game, and should wind up in the third center spot once that role is clearly defined as a defensive one.
Bailey, on the other hand, seems to be ready to take on more ofensive responsibilities. The question remains, has he been the chicken or the egg so far. (as afro, so fittingly put it). I hope that they put him in a position to succeed in that role, and pairing him with Parentau and Ullstrom or Grabner should help that along. I actually like the Ullstrom-Bailey-Parentau second line with a compliment of grabner-Nielsen-Nino as a third checking line with the ability to move the puck quickly and create offense through turnovers. The line also is like bubble wrap for Nino’s defensively challenged play.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
The defense
For all the belly-aching over which grinder forward should be where, I still think the chief issues comes back to the preseason fear that the defense holds this team back overall. Switch in some more rounded defensemen (and no, I’m not sure either Maritnek or Hillen makes a big enough difference there), count on health from either of Montoya or Nabokov at any given time (a big assumption, I know), and I bet this group of forwards is enough for at least a competitive 2011-12.
I think we assume Wishart, Reese, de Haan have the puck management part of that equation down; whether they have the defensive part, I don’t know.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Jan 3, 2012 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's so hard for me to judge Bailey. The Ullstrom chemistry could have been "flash of Bailey". And even if it wasn't, it's enough to make Bailey a "passable" averagish 3rd line center from corsi and QoComp. breakdowns.
I hope for the best for Bailey, and he has looked noticably better lately, but I still don’t want to throw him into a 2nd line role over Frans yet. Frans is miles ahead of him as a 2-way center still. Since this season isn’t likely going anywhere though, I wouldn’t mind the Bailey on the 2nd line experiment, but I wouldn’t expect much.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Baily has turned the corner!!!
I watch Baily intently when I go to the games and since Ullstrom came up, Baily has consistently played like a top 6 forward for this team. Put him with some finishers and I think he can be a 70 point player. All he needs to do is start to trust his own shot a bit more (which he has done in the past when playing on the wing) and I really think we have a good player. If Strome can be the point per game player we are all expecting as the second line center, I think Baily will make an excellent 3rd line center. I love Frans, but I think Garth needs to package him and a young defenseman and go get us a top 4 D for the next 6 years or so.
by Best Thing Going on Jan 4, 2012 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
I like the optimism, but let's not project him as a 70pts player yet. That's top 25-30 in the nhl for pts.
That would make him a legit 1st line center. That’s some pretty big steps for him to accomplish that. Heck, JT hasn’t even put himself into that category yet(but likely will).
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Playoffs=96 Points?
Based on the past few season, low 90s should be enough for the playoffs. Makes the math only slightly less ridiculous.
Lighthouse Hockey. Where Islanders fans come to panic with punctuation.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Jan 3, 2012 12:53 PM EST reply actions
90 could get them in...
96 is pretty much the guarentee. I think when you draw the line you’d like to draw it where you don’t need a lot of help from your competition. 90 points is still a ridiculous goal at this point, but it is one that also is dependent on other factors. 96 and they are in.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
Should've read further...sorry
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Just looking at 90 points
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
Just looking at 90 points
…cuz I like the thought of being in the playoff bubble, they would have to go 26-14-6 in these last 46 games. 39-31-12…I think it’s doable. Playoffs aren’t a guarantee to ANY team that’s only a few games above .500, but it would be NICE to be in the bubble again.
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
Let me fix that for you:
its doable if we play well like the Red Wings/a top 4 conference team the rest of the season
its not if we don’t
“It is” as tough as JP puts it.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Yeah 26-14-6 sounds like a really good team, which they aren't right now.
Wouldn’t it be something though if:
- Ullstrom comes back, and he and Bailey go to town.
- Frans n Grabs go to town against best opposition and the breakaways start to cash in.
- Tavares breaks out and keeps his PPG pace with Okie creating space for him.
- Streit and Amac start looking like their old, better selves.
- Nabby, then Montoya once healthy continue to play well.
- a BPT defenseman who shall remain nameless plays well with Streit while Eaton-Jurcina do bottom-pair work.
ALL THOSE THINGS happening THIS SEASON are unlikely, but possible >;-)
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
by Bryan2112 on Jan 6, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
this reminds me of an opptimistic post from last year...
I think I made a case for having about 7 potential 20+ goal scorers… and how we’d win with balance.
…and a similar one before the 2009-10 campaign that thought “all they needed” was a veteran forward and a top D to go with JT…
The problem is they have done very little to improve the team from outside the organization except for one day in june. The things we are optomistic about more oft than not turn out to be negative.
In your scenario, I’d take the status quo plus hitting a D with time left on his contract in a salary dump situation. That might spark the team for the rest of the season, and give them something to hope for next year… when the assets they DO HAVE are one year more mature… and should make them somewhat more attractive to a UFA or two that is just leaving their indentured servitude.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
I just want any top 4 d-man added to this team, but I highly doubt garth even considers it during the season.
I still think Rolston/Staios/Pandolfo were all the last options on the Garth Snow playbook, and because he wound up filling our roster with Plan F instead of Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, or even Plan D/E, and Garth even had the money to look around the nhl for other salary dumps or RFA’s that team’s didn’t wanna pay, or dangle around late/mid round picks. But Garth didn’t look hard enough(I think) or didn’t find any suitors or wanna use his “pieces”. After that, I think he is just gonna “play” (some could argue tank) with what he’s got and only deplete the team more as the trade deadline comes closer( Nabokov, PAP, Nielsen, and Streit’s names will all likely pop up in rumors). I think the best we can hope for is offseason moves to better the team honestly.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Pox on me for suggesting this but...
anybody think there is a possibility Snowy and the Wanger are sandbagging it this year for a shot at another superstar in the draft. Snowy does have a masters in BA and the blueprint for success in the NHL for clubs like the Isles (financially challenged) is very simple. Suck bad…and get a couple of top picks. Some of their moves, as mentioned above in the Snow- section, have been odd to say the least. Seems like the D was set up to fail, and they are managing it so strangely.
I can’t help but get the feeling that they attempted to straddle the line between giving the young guys a chance to break out as we all hoped, or if not, pull the plug on a couple of things and have the season go completely to shit and land a top two pick.
Again, pox on me, but if history means anything it’s a sound business move. It’s not like the assets they have are declining. If anything, this club is chock full of talented support players for years to come. What could put them over the top is another JT, or Nail.
They need defensive help.
Even if they were to take the top defensive prospect in the draft, they are looking at three years before he becomes a top NHL defenseman. If he is barking up that tree he is going about this thing all wrong. You can’t throw away season four for season five.
They aren’t “sandbagging”, what they are doing is more like “penny pinching” because all future revenue streams have been cut off by the screwed up politics of nassau county.
I can’t blame Wang for going about it this way… but sooner or later they will have to shit or get off the pot. They have a good portion of the foundation built, but it is meaningless unless they bring in quality defenseman over the next 9 months. A year five team that is struggling out of the gate again would be a disaster. Especially with gems like Tavares, Hamonic, Moulson and Grabner wasting good years to play in front of sub 13K crowds.
they really aren’t making a good case for FA’s to sign with them either.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
I disagree...
with your take of de Haan. There is no reason to think he will not be a top 4 dman…it appears to be what has been and still is thought of him in the hockey community.
I don't think I ever said "will not"...
My opinions were, and will will remain so, until proven incorrect:
1. donovan is the best defensive prospect right now not named hamonic.
2. deHaan was a poor use of chips in the 2009 draft. They used too many darts on non-physical, puck moving defensemen… and it is a HUGE chasm in the organization now.
3. Calvin is beginning to become suspect in regards to durability. Much like Katic.
4. Calvin may have the skills to be a top 4 defender, but he is not dominating at the AHL level. That is not a negativ. Dominating will be a function of time and maturity. But he is on the “move to next level” list because he has a nice cap hit vs budget hit ratio.
Right now Wishart may not be stuck be stuck in the AHL because of his lack of physical play (which would be one of the reasons), but because he is post-ELC and if they brought him up there is no CAP:BUDGET gap. They get a $800K cap hit, and they actually have to pay the guy $800K.
You can disagree with any of those points… but I think they are based in reality…or at least MY reality.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
Best defensive prospect
I get the sense de Haan is still ahead lately. He was just named to the AHL All-Star game, for what it’s worth.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I'm not sure...
what got deHaan to the all-star game. It certainly wasn’t the performance he put on in any of the games I’ve seen.
Going back to their junior(against kids) v college(against older kids), and their play in the AHL I’d disagree. Donovan is the better of the two. The only thing that might get calvin 30 or so NHL games is his cap gap. But we can definitely revisit this in a few years… and hopefully it will be arguing which is the more important Islander 20+ minute D.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
Yeah, I like all this because it likely means...
ONE of them at least will pan out Top 4…good enough for me. Can only hope Mayfield develops well, and/or we draft Matt Dumba or Jacob Trouba or some D prospect this June.
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
by Bryan2112 on Jan 6, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Probably too proud to sandbag
But risking missing badly while getting a nice pick vs. spending lavishly (in money and term) and climbing only to 9th or 8th at best? I frankly always assume that’s part of the calculus right now, as is not going the Columbus route and splurging on a Wiz or trading picks/prospects for someone.
There are so many unknowns with the franchise and apparently their ticket revenue is second-lowest in the league, yet without the revenue sharing most low-revenue teams get to alleviate that. It’s a broken record, but their best properties outside of the astute (or lucky) reclamations Moulson and PAP are in their early 20s or not here yet, so their trajectory points to a time when those players will be better and they’ll know whether it’s sensible (in terms of Wang’s ownership and arena certainty) to spend more on longer-term risks. Even the Ehrhoff offer (if report is true of 5 years, ~$23 million) was somewhat risk-averse.
The D “set up to fail” — I’d almost buy that except for the past three or four summers I’ve found the evaluation of the defense to be Snow & Co.’s biggest weakness — so maybe they also overestimated how ready CDH/Wishardt/Ness/Donovan would be (or maybe the opposite: maybe they underestimate whether any of those are ready now).
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
D
hopefully that’s what Wang & Snow were doing in Bridgeport
realizing they have some decent D to work with – would be cool if they could find some folks to take on Eaton, Staios and bring the kids up
Mottau there’s no hope for of course – no one is that stupid
I know, I know
Conventional wisdom suggests that anyone who is involved is sports, professional sports or otherwise, would be too proud to tank. But Charles is an unconventional kind of guy, and he is a businessman first. If presented with all his options in a clear and professional fashion, which I’m certain he and Garth can do, tanking for a top pick may look pretty good compared to the alternatives (spending, rushing prospects, succeeding just enough to get the 8th pick, etc).
If the team started nicely and/or got a few bounces, then you look at bringing up some of the youthful upgrades and maybe we’re buyers at the deadline. But the team started like shit and got zero bounces and is all but eliminated from the playoffs already…again. Why rush the youth when a full year at the Bridge is probably best for their development. Sticking with the old farts, and Mottau, is in itself a way of tanking. And sadly we may be sellers at the deadline with PAP, Frans, or even Streit. This would also contribute to a tank.
This is all mindless speculation borne of frustration, but I can’t seem to get this notion out of my head. Someone please help me.
by CloseCallJiggs on Jan 3, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I think it's a productive exercise in any case
I mean very few are going to outright tank, but everyone has to play short-term gain vs. long-term gain, short-term risk vs. long-term risk, and for a team in the Islanders’ financial and venue situation you can certainly argue they’d be more likely to favor the “Oops, we tanked” route especially if a route to certain contender status appears cost prohibitive or too risky for the long-term.
I’m just thinking of when Wang bought the team, funded it with long overdue resources, but also let Milbury do the extreme moves that provided short-term gain at great long-term risk. We can debate how Milbury could’ve avoided falling prey to that long-term risk, but certainly the moves that got them back to respectability in 2001-02 also cost them down the line.
Can you tell I enjoy this philosophical topic? :)
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Well, since you enjoy it so much, what is your opinion?
Should this team “Oops, tank!” for a top Dman at the June draft?
/knows Dom doesn’t give opinions out too easy, but asks for bone to be thrown.
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
Okay... I'll give you my opinion.
He doesn’t really doesn’t have to tank at all. Murray and the other top D will be available to him right where he is (most likely). All he really needs to do is not get a rental for something like a middle round pick and cap space.
If he passes on a salary dump of an effective top four “D” that is just OVERPAID on a team that won’t need him next year… he should be boiled in the steam coming out of my ears.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
Yeah, the funny thing is if we land anywhere in the top 10 overall for draft picks, Snow can draft a puckmoving d-man, which he seems to love, lol.
If it really comes down to this though, I’d rather go for broke. I’d trade our 1st rounder for this year, 1st rounder for next year, and our 2nd round pick for grigorekno or yakupov. We really don’t need another frigging puckmoving d-man. I really want one of Yakupov/Grigorenko/Forsberg/Dumba out of next year’s draft.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
High dissappointment
Is what I feel. I really expected to see this team in the thick of the playoff hunt this year. With this team healthy for the most part (with the exception of Goalie) I just expected more. The one glaring item I would point out is the lack of production from the FnGO line. I thought this was going to be a good, solid , SCORING line. Not sure why the drop-off. I understand about our defense and would love to see DeHaan/Reese/Wish up here perm. Cut Mottau and Staos loose. While were at it , how about the former devils on this team …. add them to the “cut loose immediately” cry… cap floor be damned.
Isles rule, rangers suck... that's just how it is.
Moulson should be on the All-Star team.
“The NHL is a joke”
30 teams...
there should be 46 roster spots. every team should be represented by more than just a “skills competition” invitee.
80+ goals by the all star break of a third season should be a qualifier. Tavares should be in just because he’s one of the top 20 forwards in the league.
Hamonic should be a candidate as well. But you’ll see bigger names, from better teams… that don’t put $20M rosters on the ice.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
i just hope streit
plays well enough so he can moved at the deadline for something decent. he’s not part of this teams future. that is, if they even have a future. the way they so clueless, its hard to tell
haley
beating up opposing players (especially rangers) was the only thing to look foward to watching this team. and now the dopes send him down again. taveras’ gretzky like vision and matt martin becoming a very good all around power foward are nice too .
other than that, this team is moribund and virtually impossible to watch
Well,
at least December was not a débâcle like November. They will probably be at their best in January and February, again. Not complaining, I’m always happy when they start playing better, but they have to find a way to break the cycle.
I would suggest an exorcist and a gallon of Holy Water. If that doesn’t help, there’s always Lourdes. France is lovely in September.
"If you have what you say you have, I’ll make you rich. If you don’t, I’ll make you into shoes" Jim Moriarty 1/1/2012
by Francesca on Jan 3, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd for "exorcist" reference...
Maybe they just need to remove their demons DEVILS!
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
I like your new avatar :D
"If you have what you say you have, I’ll make you rich. If you don’t, I’ll make you into shoes" Jim Moriarty 1/1/2012
by Francesca on Jan 3, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks... big fan of Hitch... will miss his work once I catch up to it.
I like your new quote.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
Thanks :)
I’m in a Sherlock frenzy right now. Big fan of Moffat. I waited one and a half years for the new season and the first episode let me in awe.
"If you have what you say you have, I’ll make you rich. If you don’t, I’ll make you into shoes" Jim Moriarty 1/1/2012
No sugarcoating
I do not post here often Im usually over at BBV posting about the Giants but after reading this post I had to.
This season has been nothing short of disastrous for this franchise. The team has not taken the next step in the rebuild, it has faltered.
They have an AHL coach who I like as a person but is obviously in over his head. They have young players that are not improving but are stagnant or regressing. They have still not settled the Goalie situation – keeping DP on this roster for this long is an absolute JOKE! Steady goaltending is essential in having a solid confident team up front.
This season is nothing short of a complete failure for the rebuilding Islanders. They should be at least 10 points better at this point of the rebuild. It is also completely disheartnening watching the young players at MSG ,who were drafted lower then the Isles young players, flourish. That team does not have multiple top 5 picks on the roster.
The 2011-2012 New York Islanders are a failure. There is no more sugarcoating, no more patience. GARTH- YOU HAVE FAILED!
by BLUEYOU on Jan 3, 2012 2:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
reality
good post
Capuano is clearly not NHL quality
what is the logic for this team not trying harder in the front office? there is no logic – a more competitive team would either attract more fans, if that’s the goal, or make getting a new arena more attractive from higher revenues/potential, or even to attract a buyer
there is no logic to what’s happening – it has to simply be Snow & Co having to keep to a strict budget – its the only logical thread to what’s been happening
and its even damaging for Wang himself – unless he is financially pinched and as a result has his own Wilponish issues behind the scenes – who knows
for sure, much of what we’ve seen since the vote is keeping the team to a minimum spend
off ice
Winning starts at the top of the organization. If the organization has issues at the top, regardless of what they may be, it feeds all the way to the ice.
I strongly believe if an arena deal of some sort gets done that will be when the product on the ice improves.
sounds about right
and organizational culture always without fail filters down from the top
let me repeat WITHOUT FAIL
If
Snow & Co have to keep to a strict budget, how are you blaming the coach? It seems to me a team that doesn’t spend on players is going to have a lot of crappy players. Nothing the coach can do there.
understood
That is a factor, but a coach with young players like this should be capeable of getting them to show improvement. This team does not have crappy players, just young and inexperienced.
Crappy players:
Rolston
Pandolfo
Reasoner?
Eaton
Mottau
Jurcina
Staios
Add in the usual handful of injuries, and the youth and inexperience, and it’s hard to expect much more than they’ve given. I’d actually think 6-6-2 against a tough December schedule is some solid improvement over the first two months.
he just isn't very good
as I said a few days ago, not the sole reason for our problems, also not the answer
by Cary K on Jan 3, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not to be a troll or anything...
If you read your post here, then read about how they can make the playoffs in the rest of your snipes at my “96” goal, I’d say my diagnosis would be schizophrenia.
I’d like to see some supportive info on the “NHL Quality” of a coach. Are you at practices, team meetings and organizational discussions. If so… please share. Because his record would suggest that he is treading water with a defense that consists of Travis Hamonic and 6 skating wounded, of presently suspect quality.
I’m not going to disagree with BLUEYOU, because I think they have failed over the last three years to put a quality product on the ice. But don’t tell me they suck, and then say it won’t be that hard to reach even 90 points. Make up your mind.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
by JPinVA on Jan 4, 2012 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You did not read my post
I do not believe I posted anything about reaching 90 points.
My post was directed at Cary...
I only refernce your original post to clarify the schizophrenia. Sorry for the confusion.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
When replies get spread out, if you click the "UP" button
You can verify which comment a reply is replying to.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Jan 4, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rangers
Kudos to them for all of their talented youth – they are one of the youngest teams in the league and have a blueline that I am insanely jealous of – but they also have 2 elite forwards they secured via free agency, as well as the best the goaltender in the game whom they acquired when they stepped in shit (the good kind) during the draft.
They have also bet the farm on players like Gaborik and Richards- players with injury histories and 31yo FA cash-ins.
Its working out great right now, nobody can deny that, but I wouldnt count on it going on like this unless they change their philosophy quickly and somehow figure out how to pay their own young players to stay and not do what players like Gaborik and Richards did when they came there.
Their biggest success is Henrik Lundqvist, no question about it.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 3, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
The year is NOT over yet for the Rags!
Injury prone Goborik has been lucky, so far! And of course there is the Queen.
We are all Islanders, even if we’re from Jersey!
by Russel Ginart on Jan 3, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
say what you want
about Dolan, he is a jerk off, a deucebag and a tool, but he has deep pockets, gets an arena renovation and allows the GMs to get players needed to win.
Charles Wang may or may not have deep pockets, has not secured an arena deal, and rarely allows his GM to get the players necessary to win.
The deep pockets you refer to have fucked their team over more than they have helped them.
The arena comments are just ridiculous. If Dolan didnt own the building and was in Nassau County he wouldnt get dick done here, either. Complimenting Dolan is making me nauseous. Seriously.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 4, 2012 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
Complimenting?
No just being objective- I used the terms deuchebag, tool and jerk off to describe him that is not exactly complimentary. The Fact is he shows more so then Wang that he wants to win.
Seriously take some Pepto and get back to reality. the islanders stink right now and are a terrible franchise for the last 30 years. What makes me nauseous are blind as a bat fans who are trying to downplay the Rangers being in first place and the Islanders in last. WAKE UP and stop drinking the kool aid.
Kool aid your ass.
Fucking Kool Aid crap? Really? You lose all credibility in arguments when this is the kind of garbage you dish out.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 4, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
the deep pockets
Only fucked their team over when an incompetent GM was managing.
All in all the deep pockets do not even matter anymore with the hard cap. The cap is probably what helped the Rangers more then anything by being more wise with their money.
All in all the deep pockets do not even matter anymore with the hard cap.
A popular misnomer.
You can keep believing that all you want- but only certain teams would be able to dumb tens of millions of dollars of extra NHL salary into the AHL just for the hell of it.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 4, 2012 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
They may have leveraged their future...
with some possibly bad long term contracts… but when they are DEFINITIVELY BAD Montreal will just bail them out.
Nobody is going to bail us out. Hell, if Wang’s sister owned a team she wouldn’t take on THE 15 YEAR MISTAKE THAT’S PRONE TO BREAK.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
Thank you for reminding me why I hate Bob Gainey
An otherwise gentlemanly man.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
what is abundantly apparent
in a logical world, a team with D prospects such as de Haan & Reese would already be playing them regularly –
but we are oh so clearly playing to a tight budget – Garth is likely having his hands tied if one had to take an educated guess
our D should be
Amac-Hamonic
Streit-Jurcina
de Haan-Reese
that would be exciting
with Donovan, Ness, Wishart – and apparently in March or so, Katic will be back & available
instead we have the Molasses Trio of Eaton, Mottau & Staios playing regularly
New Year’s Resolution #1 – make the 6 above the D contingent for the rest of as much of 2012 as possible
also, our goal should be 90 points, and that is achievable and may be enough
96 is an unnecessarily high number to shoot for in a league where mediocrity largely reigns
oh to be mediocre
Great post, agreed with pretty much everything.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
2011/2012 Failure!!!!!!
This was supposed to be the season the Islanders were going to turn the corner. The fans for the most part gave the Islanders and Garth Snow last season as a throw away, because of losing Okposo and Streit before the season started and also the ridiculous amount of injuries. We saw in the 2nd half of last season some really nice play by our young players. We also saw a glimpse of what possibly could be a good future.
We also saw the islanders make long term commitments to our young players and having them buy into the salary structure of the team. Those were all positives. Just before the end of the season I thought we were turning the corner, just like the majority of Islander fans. We were in for a rude awakening.
Personel decisions that led to this Failure.
1. Making Cappi the coach without even trying to bring in a legit NHL coach that could be the face of our franchise on the management side and help lure Vets in their prime to this franchise. I am not saying this after the fact, this was my opinion when he got the job full time.
2. Bringing in Reasoner, Rolston, Pandolfo, and Staios. All vets that had success but are way past their prime. Not only are these players not living up to expectations they have been taking ice time from younger players.
3. Keeping Eaton and Mottau. It was not a coincidence the Islanders started to play better when Eaton and Mottau were hurt in the 2nd Half of last season.
4. Not bringing 2 legit Vets via trade a RW and a 2nd Pair Defenseman. Snow did try the FA with Erhoff but it did not work. But he could not pull the trigger on a trade. That was why the Islanders were stuck with the old men brigade.
5. The 4th line. Not resigning Konopka and sending Haley to BP took any toughness from this team. Those 2 players and Martin made the perfect 4th line. They gave you skill and toughness. Having them play 9-11 minutes a game was perfect.
6. Cappi not having a clue on what to do with the 3rd and 4th lines. Even in training camp he kept switching the players because the pieces Snow gave him were not working. This I believe is what happened with Comeau. The 3 seasons pryor he had 7,17, and 24 goals, each year he improved, yes he was a very streaky player but there was conistent improvement. In training camp he was moved all over the place between LW and RW and 3rd and 4th Line. They took away his PK time. I believe these were the reasons for his 5 steps back he took this year. His position, line, and role were never defined. nly time will tell if it was a mistake or not letting Comeau go.
7. The Dipietro spectre. I know it will never be resolved until he himself retires. Because of him we only have a 22 man roster not 23.
The play of the team that led to the failure:
1. JT overall has improved his game. His skating and strength are the biggest improvement. But had too long of a goal scoring drought, which hurt the team.
2. Neilsen is not in the best position for him. He is a very good 2 way 3rd line center and PK. Yes he had success last season with Grabner as part of the FNGO line but it is not what he does best. I think the Islanders playing him also on the PP this season is making him over utilized, and are expecting more from him than should be expected.
3. Grabner does not show the explosiveness as much as he did last season. Maybe like Neilsen he maybe over utilized.
4. Okposo, Bailey, Comeau the 0 for club. These players more than any other reason including the old men are the reason for the goal draught. Okposo and Bailey are playing much better lately but they were needed for secondary scoring and did not come through at all.
5. Nino wasting him on the 4th line with no talent around him and playing only 9 minutes a game. How can he expected to succeed.
6. Streit is still not 100% and may never be again after last seasons injury. He is getting beat too many times and has lost a step in his skating. We needed him to anchor our defense and be 1 of our top pair. He is not there yet.
7. Amac is still not 100%, but is starting to show signs of his old self as of late. But he was making many mistakes and getting beat quite a bit earlier in the season.
8. Jurcina has not played as well as last season.
9 Staios, Eaton, and Mottau are old, slow and soft, not a very good combo for defensemen. The Islanders have a tough time getting out of their own zone once the puck is deep. The Wings and Centers always have to go deeper than necessary to help with defense. So it is hard to break out of their own zone.
10. Montoya and Nabokov when healthy have been good in 90% of the games. Both goalies have kept is in games but both need to stay healthy. Both of them have had too many games on the injured list.(with DiPi we want the exact opposite.)
The following is what I would like to see the Islanders do.
1. DiPi permanent resident on the Injured Reserve List.
2. The 3 healthy scratches should be Rolston (because we need his salary or I would say just release him) Reasoner, Staios.
3. Release Pandolfo, Mottau, and Eaton unless you can get a couple of pucks for them.
4. Bring up Colliton, Haley, Wishart, and Reese
5. Change up the lines and pairings
1st line – Mouson-JT-Parenteau
2nd line – Grabner-Bailey-Nino
3rd line – Ullstrom-Neilsen-Okposo
4th line – Martin-Colliton-Haley
1st Pair – Amac-Hamonic
2nd Pair – Streit-Reese
3rd Pair – Jurcina-Wishart
6. Trade Nabokov at the trade deadlineand bring up Poulin
Maybe with these changes we can make another 2nd half run.
Next season we will have more young players coming up:
Strome
Kabanov
DeHaan
Donavan
Katic
DiBe
Rak
Cizkas
Petrov
Descisions will need to be made on Parenteau, Bailey, Neilsen, Reese, Wishart and Jurcina do we keep trade or just let go.
Snow needs to get a 2nd pair Vet in his prime defenseman most likely by trade. He will probably need to give up a his 1st rounder plus 1 or more of the the above players. If not it will be another long season.
Catching up
Looking at the week ahead:
08 WPG 43 pts 38 GP – plays @MTL, @TOR, @BUF
09 WAS 42 pts 37 GP – plays CGY, @SJ
10 TOR 41 pts 38 GP – plays TBL, WPG, DET
11 BUF 38 pts 38 GP – plays EDM, @CAR, WPG
12 TBL 37 pts 37 GP – plays @TOR, @OTT, @MTL
13 MTL 35 pts 39 GP – plays WPG, TB
14 NYI 32 pts 36 GP – plays @CAR, @ANA, @PHX
The 6 teams between us and # 8 play each other in 6 different games, meaning anywhere between 12 and 18 points will be handed out in them. We could win all 3 games and only pass MTL, and still be 5 points behind Tampa in 13th place, and 10+ points out of 8th.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
That's kinda why I looked at the big picture.
You can drive yourself nuts looking at it that way. Set a goal, 89, 90, 91-95… whatever… and try to keep pace with that.
I like the 10 GAME chunks that you have been doing. Setting reasonable goals, like winning 7 of 10 is a good way to kick start optimism.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
JP excellent article
No argument from me on your thesis. Most disturbing thought is the team’s demise on Long Island. It’s part the economy, the teams they have been fielding, politics, and management. Sad fact is that the population base and past great history should be a positive factor. The population of Nassau/Suffolk is greater than any Canadian area except Toronto. If you include Queens/Bklyn its in the top ten in the league!
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
