Josh Bailey..... A Work In Progress?

With the 9th pick in 2008 NHL draft the Islanders got an NHL player… that’s more than you can say for the 11th pick, would you trade him for Colton Tuebert or the NOW TORONTO SUPERSTAR JOE COLBORNE… no.. but everybody wants to put the Tyler Myers vice grip on his testicles.
Jeez… let it go.

Applause!

If there are two of those four back it will be an inexcusable failure.

Bailey has had rolston and comeau, but he’s also had martin and ullstrom. I think he’ll be gone after this contract. Next year is really make or break and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s outplayed by a “new comer”. Martin has outplayed Bailey this year, and besides Rolston(who plays safe but not productively) he is the weakest all around player in the top 9. I think Nino could and will pass Bailey next year. And than goes the question if we bring in another outside top 9 forward or maybe even Strome could outplay Bailey next year. It wouldn’t be completely unheard of to see Strome outplay Bailey either next year: think possibly Skinner/Stepan, I wouldn’t be surprised if he came in and excelled offensively in a 3rd line role. I think Bailey is slowly becoming the most expendable “youngster” on the nhl team. He’ll be bergenheimed off sooner or later.

he has to out perform the likes of Nino, Strome, Ullstrom. Cizikas, and possibly Rahk. So far he has not shown that he can,

Not entirely true. In his brief AHL stint Bailey was completely dominant. Granted he had a lot of NHL experience at that point, but all of the players at the AHL level have yet to produce as Bailey did at that level.

Strome is really the only one who has exceeded Bailey in a comparable setting (OHL).

I agree the window is probably inching shut for Bailey, but we really don’t know if we have someone who is going to outperform him yet.

Turris and Bailey have the same points…except Turris has done it in 19 games and is a +11…oops, 25 games and is +9.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=99822

He’s had bad linemates(Rolston/Comeau) and he’s had ok but decent linemates(Ullstrom/Martin). He’s been the middle man, literally and performance wise. And his numbers say he’s been more negative than positive, advanced and otherwise. He hasn’t been given tough competition (overall 3rd toughest line competition as you’d expect). He hasn’t been given a stupid high percentage of d-zone draws(him and wallace are right in the middle of the regular starters with 48.5% o-zone starts). Yet his corsi numbers still suck and his offense is sub-par, -12 corsirelative and on the verge of a 9goal/23pts -20 season(with 3goals on the PK), both worse than they were last year.

Breaking down his game visually, it’s pretty obvious we can point some things that may never make him more than a sub-par checking center/sub-par offensive center on any team’s 3rd line. He is ineffective at even strength for one reason or a combo of things, but I do think he has the potential to be a good 3rd line center. Offensively, he is just a bit of a mess. He refuses to shoot the puck and looks to never be a real goalscoring threat because of this. You do this, and you allow the D to cheat in the o-zone and even cancel out you as a real shooting option unless extenuating circumstances occur. Next, he is way to pretty with the puck and holds on to it too long too much. Does he have good hands? Yes, but his decision making with the puck is bad any way you look at it. He just just doesn’t seem to have the hockey sense or smart decision making he needs to be efficient offensively. If I had to describe him in the o-zone, I’d say he is a minimal to non-shooting sub-par offensive IQ playmaking forward. Does he have skills? Yes, I don’t think top 6 center skills, but whatever, but he certainly has enough skills to excel in a 3rd line role, yet he can’t come close to putting it together. If he continues to progress as so, I expect him at minimal on wing in 2 seasons or gone. Defensively he is better, but he is not close to a nielsen. He is good at reading plays, and is an above-average puck stealer. His defensive hockey IQ is good, but not great.

Is Bailey good on the PK? Yes, but so are 4th line PK specialists.

In summary, I think Bailey’s created as many problems as he’s been given to deal with this past year or 2. In all seriousness, he is an offensive mess with his decision making in the o-zone. That is something that needs serious coaching or mindset changes in Bailey to be solved. Not shooting the puck is a “big” problem. Not knowing when to pass, when to hold the puck, and when to make “pretty puck moves” is a “big” problem. That alone can turn him and his line into a sub-par offensive threat, especially if he is leading the play and the main puck control guy at C. Defensively though he has some light. As a pure 3rd liner, playing vs 3rd line competition in average o-zone starts, he looks to be a good but not great/nielsen defensive forward. He is a good puck thief, reads plays well defensively, and an overall solid defensive forward(although not a great shot blocker, which he has to learn to be by sacrificing his body more). He’s good but not great imo defensively. Overall, Bailey is a sub-par 3rd line center with the potential to be a good 3rd line center, and we will find out which he will/should become over the next season and a half.

With that, people say: should he be a checking forward used in a primarily checking role? I don’t think so, at least not yet, and neither do the islanders. Even as a checking forward, you need to be able to generate some shots and offense on opposing goalies. Reasoner was/is the definition of a bottom 6 checking forward. He could play solid defense against top 6 competition and come out with a decent corsi because he shoots the puck and has some offensive IQ(taking this year aside for now, although Benhasna has proven luck has not been on his side). And given his corsi numbers against average 3rd line competition, it would be a disaster playing him a pure checking role against top 6 competition. That is why Nielsen is levels ahead of Bailey and should be extended for multiple years. Nielsen is an elite checking center and has top 6 offensive acumen to boot, that combo is extremely rare and worth gold to teams, even if some people/or your average fan doesn’t realize it.

Then why not put Bailey in an offensive role? As I stated before, he isn’t close to being ready for more o-zone starts and more offensive minutes(especially against top 6 competition). It’s obvious for reasons I stated above why this would be a bad idea.

My 2 cents.