Islanders Playoffs - Possible or Pipe Dream?
by JoRiverside on Jan 22, 2012 5:30 PM EST
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During yesterday evening's Hockey Night Live, Billy Jaffe mentioned Islanders and playoffs in the same sentence. Dave Maloney let out an uncontrollable laugh of disbelief, and said something to the effect of "Are you kidding me?" But are the playoffs really a pipe dream as Maloney will have you believe? To date, everyone has been focusing on what it will take to hit 92 points (the average points needed in the past to make the playoffs). That is usually followed by statements that the Isles will need to "go 24-12-0 or 22-11-3" to get to 92 pts. Seems daunting; but when you break it down from a different perspective it doesn't seem as insurmountable.
Here's a more positive way to look at the path to the playoffs:
For the balance of the year, the Isles have to win
- 4 more games than Washington, and
- 3 more games than Toronto and Winnipeg, and 1 more game than Montreal & Tampa
- and except for the Capitals, the Islanders have 1 to 2 more games on hand versus the teams above.
Also, if the Isles get on a hot streak, say go 7-2-1 in a ten game span, they can be within 3 pts of the playoffs (assuming the others play .500 NHL hockey.
As an example, below is a scenario to show how the Isles can get back into the thick of things. It shows the standings as of January 22nd. If the Isles go 7-2-1 over their next ten games (now 56 games played) and the teams they are competing with play .500 hockey in the games that get them to a total of 56 games; the Islanders could find themselves 3 pts out of a playoff spot (back in the thick of things).
| January 22 | Record to | Pts after | |||
| Team | GP | PTS | game 56 | 56 games | |
| 7 | New Jersey | 47 | 54 | 4-4-1 | 63 |
| 8 | Washington | 46 | 52 | 4-4-2 | 62 |
| 9 | Toronto | 47 | 51 | 4-4-1 | 60 |
| 10 | Winnipeg | 48 | 50 | 4-4-0 | 58 |
| 11 | Montreal | 48 | 45 | 4-4-0 | 53 |
| 12 | NY Islanders | 46 | 44 | 7-2-1 | 59 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay | 47 | 44 | 4-4-1 | 53 |
| 14 | Buffalo | 48 | 43 | 4-4-0 | 51 |
| 15 | Carolina | 50 | 43 | 3-3-0 | 49 |
Well of course, putting numbers together is easy (my wife just rolled her eyes), but to actually pull it off, I believe the Isles need the following to happen:
- 1. First line needs to continue to play great hockey
- 2. More secondary scoring is needed (more from the defense would be nice)
- 3. Nabokov and/or Montoya need to get hot and steal 2 or 3 games
- 4. Defense needs to continue its improved play
I still think the odds are against the Islanders, but the playoffs are not impossible. There is a path to get there. Let's pray for a nice 10 game streak and meaningful hockey in March-April.
Side note - the Devils were 10-29-2 on January 9th last year and made a run at the playoffs. The Isles currently sit at 19-21-6, but hey, they're the Islanders...they don't stand a chance...so says Dave Maloney. Maybe Tavares and team have a different view.
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1 game at a time, and
the big thing is getting 2 points in regulation when the go head to head vs the teams above them
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Jan 23, 2012 12:45 AM EST reply actions
Agree, starting with Toronto tonight
Impotant to win in regulation
by JoRiverside on Jan 23, 2012 8:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd like to believe it by looking at the standings
But 7.6% is small. They may need a miracle even with teams dropping games in the east.
All Who Oppose Grabner Shall Perish.
Isles had less of a chance than that with a week or two left to go in the 06-07 season
If you win, things can happen.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 23, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
How many games left with rivals from the Atlantic?
That’s the biggest thing IMO. We have 4 members of our division currently in the top 7. You have to argue this is the best division in hockey. I don’t see a reason why we can’t pass the Devils or even Penguins if they continue their injury woes.
UVa Student. Twitter: @ericdavidmorris
three keys possible
I have been a die hard fan my whole life and being born in 1987 I have hardly seen the isles in the playoffs so I have thought this year through similarly as this post. The three keys are exact and possible there’s no reason suggesting jt will slow down and it’s about time grabner bailey Frans step up this year and nabby and Monty are capable of winning as we have seen already
by rgm304 on Jan 23, 2012 10:18 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
JUST WIN, BABY!
That’s how simple it is… they just need to win… and a lot!
If you try to break it down by opponents, and add in the three point games you’ll go nuts. My 96 point goal is almost totally out of the question, and even a 90 point goal doesn’t seem too realistic… but if they open the doggy door (about 88PTS), and they make some moves to improve their stamina in the dog days… there’s a chance.
But I don’t see them making it with Rolston in the regular lineup, or if injuries cause Mottau to restart his Islander career.
I think they need to spark some secondary scoring with Ullstrom-Bailey-Nino after the break…. then, even if we don’t make it, we might have something to be excited about next year.
I believe in ELI! Go Blue!
@JPinVA
Obviously the outcome of the two Leafs' games...........
will for the moment determine whether the dream goes on. A sweep against them would be huge!
anything can happen, but i tend to ignore points total and focus on games under/above 500.
and yes i am aware there are now 3 point games when tied after regulation, but still, over/under 500. is a more accurate assessment. Isles are still 2 games under 500. It will probably take a minimum of 7 games over 500. to get into the final spot or two, and that is the best case scenario. That would see a team getting say the 8th seed with 89 points, by the skin of their teeth. For this to happen, the Isles would have to play nine games over 500. from here till the end of the season.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jan 23, 2012 3:56 PM EST reply actions
Points against the bubble teams are the most important
Beating the likes of the NYRs is great, but it is more important to be beating Tor,Tpa, Mon, Buf, Car, NJD, Was, – when we lose to a top team in the standings we lose 2 possible points, but when we lose to a bubble team we lose the same 2 points, but the very team we need to beat gains 2 points.
Would just like to be in the picture
as it’d help us drum up interest with free agents in the summer and maybe actually grab someone.
Definitely a poster at Lighthouse Hockey until 2015, then maybe somewhere else.
by ArsenalLI on Jan 24, 2012 2:04 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Maloney......
I know he is not the main point of this post, but, that little comment/reaction to Jaffe’s statement was a little to much. I understand he was a Ranger and had to watch the Isles win 4 in a row, but he should put aside his personal views and be a little more professional.
On a side note, F**K the Rangers and their “fairweather fans” .
by jrams16 on Jan 24, 2012 9:37 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
