Progression? A quick and shallow look at the past 2 seasons.
by nyi22 on Jan 18, 2012 2:49 PM EST
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PrintI created this fanpost about 2 months ago comparing the rough stretches the islanders went through in November of 2010 and 2011. Since then, the team has showed flashes of progression, but is still in need of strong finish to end up in the 80-90pt range - a finish that I believe would be a definite sign of growth for the franchise. While points alone will not dictate whether or not the Islanders rebuild can be considered on the right track as of 2011-2012, I wanted to take another look at last season vs. this season to gauge what that part of the picture will look like.
My interest in looking forward comes from the Isles finish to last season. From Dec 16 on (54 games), the team had a 25-21-8 record, which is an 88 point pace for a full season. Many fans were optimistic that this was a sign of things to come for this year. Through 44 games, the Isles record is 17-21-6 for a total of 40pts. Through 44 games last season the team was 14-23-7 for a total of 35pts. While currently playing 5 pts ahead of last seasons pace, the team will have to play well down the stretch to maintain this difference.
The graphs below (hope this posted well) (NOTE: just previewed and its a bit small but if you click on it, it should be readable) show the teams point total for 6 game chunks starting from game 20 for both this season and last season. Game 20 seemed like a good starting point as the point totals were almost equal and it was almost the end of the horrible stretch each team went through to start the year. The lower graph includes projections based on the Islanders point percentage this season. While this is likely to change somewhat during the second half of the season, it provides a guideline.
The Islanders are on pace to finish about 2 points ahead of last years mark at this point. This is equivalent to a 15-18-5 record from today till the end of the season. My prediction is they play NHL .500 hockey the rest of the way finishing 17-17-4 for a total of 78pts. A "strong" finish still within reality would be 19-15-4 for 82pts. This would indicate definite progression from last year and something very solid to build on (confidence wise - the personal still needs overhaul to address the inconsistency).
Anyway I really just felt like making this graph for myself and thought I'd share it. Lets go Isles!
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Thanks for making this
Sorry I just saw it.
It’s going to be very interesting how the two seasons match up.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Good work
Like all graphs and projections they are only accurate in real time. However the comparisons with last year up to this point are real and instructive. Obviously where the team goes from here is dependant obviously not only on the quality of play but also on injuries which are unpredictable.
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
