10-Game-Chunks, Part IV: Inconsistently Average
by Torgo on Jan 13, 2012 6:31 PM EST
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PrintWith the Sharks and Bruins finally getting game #40 in the books last night, it's time to take a look at the league with every team frozen at 40 games played.
First, the standings through 40...
In the east, the #8 spot is 45 points, so doubling and adding 2 puts the probable playoff perforation at 92 points.
Goal Scoring
Boston leads with 148 through 40. Philadelphia is 2nd with 137. The Isles slot in at #27 with 96 goals (includes shootout welfare credits). Los Angeles is last with 87.
Defense
It's no shock to see Boston on top here, as well, with only 77 shots in the net. The Rangers are second with 83. The Islanders check in at 24th, with 126 having found their way in. The swiss cheesiest team in the league is Tampa Bay, with 136 in the net. Carolina and Ottawa have each let in 135.
Differential
Boston +71, Detroit +39. A 32 point gap between first and second.
On the other end of the spectrum, Columbus is -35 and Anaheim -34. The Islanders are 27th at -30.
Penaly Minutes
Boston has gooned it up for 649 minutes with Philly only 3 minors behind at 643.The NHL average is 472. The Islanders are the 3rd most Lady Byng-like team with only 394 PIM accrued. Phoenix is the most gentlemanly with only 336, followed closely by Detroit at 340.
Power Play
Vancouver leads the way with a 23.9% PP (22/157). Edmonton is next at 21.6% (27/165). The Islanders are 4th at 20.2% (26/129). The NHL average is 17.3%. Montreal is only 12.6% (20/159) to bring up the rear. Philadelphia leads the NHL in chances with 181 PPs. Phoenix has had the fewest with 126. The Isles, Colorado and Winnipeg are tied for 27th fewest with 129. Boston has yet to give up a SHG against, while the Devils have given up an astounding 12. No other team has given up more than 5. The Islanders 3 SHGA are right about the league average of 3.3.
Penalty Killing
The Devils lead the NHL with a 91.0% PK (132/45). Los Angeles and Montreal are each 88.4% (137/155). The Isles are in 13th, with 83.5% (106/127). The NHL average is 82.7%. New Jersey has scored 8 SHG to lead the league. Calgary has yet to register a SHG. The Islanders and 4 other teams only have 1 each. The Isles 127 times short is the 3rd fewest in the league, behind only San Jose (121) and Florida (123). Philadelphia has been short 171 times, the most in the league.
Special Teams Index
STI combines the PP% (minus SHGA) and PK% (plus SHGF) to see just how special the special teams are. Vancouver leads the NHL at 110.5% ((37-2)/155)+(157-22-3)/157). The Islanders are 9th in the league ((26-3)/129+(127-21-1)/127). Tampa is the worst in the league at 90.3%. As good as the Isles STI is, that means that 5 on 5 play is severely lacking. The 69 even strength goals for are 27th in the league. Boston leads with 116, Kings are the worst at 61. The 102 even strength GA are 28th in the league (Carolina 104, Anaheim 105). Boston has given up only 55 even strength GA. The -33 at even strength is the worst in the NHL, 2 behind Carolina at -31. Boston is +61.
Hitting
The Rangers lead the league with 1,134 hits thrown. Buffalo is the softest team with just 703. The NHL average is 872. After their very soft start, the Islanders are now up to 888, good for 12th in the league and only 19 hits out of the top 10.
The last 10 games
The Rangers went 9-1-0 to lead this chunk, with Colorado and Boston close behind at 8-2-0. The Islanders 5-5-0 was good enough for 9th best in the East. At 4-3-3, Florida's 11 was 8th best. The Isles picked up 1 point on Philadelphia, 2 on Pittsburgh, 3 on Buffalo and 4 on Montreal. Converting just 1 loss to a win would have meant 12 points, which would have been 5th best in the East. Converting both the Anaheim and Phoenix debacles would have meant gaining ground on the current 3-13 teams in the East, and only 5 points behind Toronto for the 8th spot.
Scoring
The Isles 27 goals for was tied for 18th, just below the league average of 28.8. Boston had a blistering 46 goals in 10 games. Toronto was next best at 36. Minnesota managed only 16 in the same time, worse than the Kings and Blue Jackets 22.
Defending (or not)
The Isles allowed 29 goals, with the league average at 28.8. This was actually tied for 13th fewest in the league. Boston and the Rangers allowed only 16 goals. Anaheim and Buffalo allowed 37. Montreal and Philadelphia gave up 36. Tampa and Edmonton gave up 35.
Differential
The Islanders -2 differential was just one shy of the -1 they put up in games 21-30. Boston was an insane +30. The Rangers were second with +15. Minnesota was -15 at the bottom.
Living in the Box
What makes Boston's +30 differential even more insane is that they racked up 210 PIM in the same time frame. Their 39 times shorthanded was the worst in the league. On the flip side, though, they had 39 PPs which was near the top in the league. Detroit was called for only 76 PIM for fewest in the NHL. The Isles spent only 82 minutes in the box, and were shorthanded only 22 times, which was the best in the NHL. The closest team to Boston in terms of permanent residence was Philadelphia with 163 PIM.
Power Play
Leading the way in this segment are the Islanders at 37.5% (9/24). The only negative is that the 24 PP chances were among the fewest (23 for Winnipeg and Detroit, 24 for the Rangers). Second best in the league was Washington at 28.0% (7/25). The league average was 18.0%. Doing the least damage were the Kings (3/40-7.5%), Wild (2/26-7.7%) and Rangers (2/24-8.3%).
Penalty Kill
The Islanders had to settle for the second best kill in the league (21/22-95.5%) behind only the Kings (31/32-96.9%). Worst in the NHL was Dallas (19/27-70.4%), followed by Toronto (27/38-71.1%).
STI
Being #1 on the PP and #2 on the PK puts the Isles easily on top of the STI at 124.6%. Edmonton was closest at 115.8%. The 124.6% this chunk was also the best of any team in any chunk so far this season. In their first 10 games, the Penguins were 122.3%. The only other team to break 120% was Minnesota in the last set at 120.9%. Dallas fared the worst this time around at 79.5%.
Being so good on special teams is completely offset by lackluster play at even strength for the Islanders. Their -8 was tied for 24th in the NHL with Columbus, but better than the double digit negatives put up by Minnesota (-10), Philadelphia (-11), Anaheim (-11), Buffalo (-11) and Edmonton (-15) at even strength. Boston was +27 at even strength to lead the league. The Rangers and Red Wings were each +14, tied for second best.
Hitting
The Rangers registered 327 hits to lead the NHL. The Kings were second with 300. Chicago was last at 165 hits, Buffalo in 29th with 176. The Islanders had 286, good for 4th in the league. The league average was 228.
The Big Picture
There have been 120 10-game chunks so far. The best was Boston's 10-0-0 in games 11-20. The worst was Columbus' 1-8-1 to start the season. The Islanders posted chunks of 3-5-2 (tied for 102nd), 2-6-2 (114th), 5-3-2 (tied 49th) and 5-5-0 (tied 70th).
Of the 64 chunks beloning to playoff teams (through 40 GP), only 10 of them appear in the bottom 35% (tied for 78th or worse). Of the 56 chunks put in by non-playoff teams, only 12 appear in the top 33% (tied for 40th or better. The Isles 5-3-2 chunk in games 21-30 is good for a tie for 49th place. Their 5-5-0 is tied for 70th. Through 40, it takes a result of 5-4-1 to make it into the top half. 4-3-3 and below are the bottom half. No team in a playogff spot has more than 2 chunks in the bottom half. Of the non-playoff teams, only Winnipeg has 3 chunks in the top half, but their worst chunk drags them to 2 points out of 8th place. No other non-playoff team has more than 1 top-half chunk.
The reality of it is that the Islanders find themselves in 14th place, 9 points behind 8th with 6 teams to jump to reach 8th. If the cutoff for theplayoffs is 92 points, that means getting 56 points in the last half of the season, or 14 points per chunk (no worse than 6-2-2). That's a pretty tall order for a team that hasn't registered better than 5-3-2. And it also doesn't factor in the other teams needing to do worse than they did in the first half.
Book your early-April tee times now. If you'd like to see it, I have the data up in a Google spreadsheet.
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Looking ahead..
Game 41 is already in the books.
42 is a must win against the Sabres.
43 is against Nashville at home.
44 is at Washignton
45 is at Philadelphia
46 is against Carolina
47 is at Toronto
48 is home against Toronto
49 is at Carolina
50 is at Ottawa.
6-1-2 the rest of the way doesn’t seem likely.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
It takes 1 good winning streak to chip away at this deficit...
then all of a sudden that margin is so insurmountable…But this team obviously has huge holes…It will be a long shot to say the least…
I would love nothing more
than for Garth Snow to offer me a 15-year, $4.5m contract to sit and do these things, but I’d settle for a team that shows consistency in winning the games it must and giving itself a chance to win against the better teams.
Do we win 6 of these? If we beat Buffalo and sweep Carolina, then we need 3 of 5 from Nashville, Washington, Torontox2 and Ottawa. Even in the games we don’t win, though, we need the welfare point.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
Isles need about 92 pts to make the playoffs
They have 36, instead of the 46 they would need to be on pace. So they need about 56 points.
In other words, they need to win almost as much as Rangers and Bruins did the 1st half of the season, or about as much as the Flyers.
Or the 2nd way:
It’s also possible the number for the 8th seed drops into the high 80s. I could easily see the Islanders passing any one of the #9-#14 teams. (Including Pens, Jets, Sabres.) But passing all three would be tough because chances are one of the three will have a good 2nd half of the season.
But if those stars do align and Isles pass all three, they just need one team to really struggle and fall out of a playoff spot out of: Panthers, Sens (doubt it), Devils, Leafs, Caps (doubt it). In other words, Isles need one of those teams to play close to as poorly as Isles did the 1st half of the season, which is possible.
Of course the main factor is that Isles finish with 87+ pts. That would likely make things interesting the last couple weeks.
Another month of .500 would virtually eliminate the Isles from playoff contention.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Jan 14, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Plus/Minus
…is a much more important statistic than most realize
Last Season – the two teams with the most Regular Season plus/minus player leaders were Boston & Vancouver, your two finalists last year
This Season – Boston has almost all of the Top Ten – they should be made prohibitive favorites to repeat – they are by far the best team in the league
I was looking forward to this post
great display of the numbers, we have a lot of positive stuff going on when you look atthe numbers.
too bad last night we couldnt convert th enumbers into 2 points that they deserved
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Jan 13, 2012 10:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I wasn't looking forward to it
I don’t want fancy numerical proof of this season’s futility — ignorance is bliss for Isles’ fans.
In all seriousness, these posts are fantastic.
Success was survival and, kid, it still is
by IslesFanInNJ on Jan 13, 2012 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Power Play
Leading the way in this segment are the Islanders at 37.5% (9/24). The only negative is that the 24 PP chances were among the fewest (23 for Winnipeg and Detroit, 24 for the Rangers). Second best in the league was Washington at 28.0% (7/25). The league average was 18.0%. Doing the least damage were the Kings (3/40-7.5%), Wild (2/26-7.7%) and Rangers (2/24-8.3%).
And yet if you go on any Isles site, people are there complaining about how bad the PP is!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
The powerplay has been something else lately
And I think the high rank is deserved the way they’re moving the puck. They’re still only up to 15th overall in shots per 60 at 5 on 4 (49.1), but that’s a rise above earlier in the season, and their movement has been so good lately I think the climb to 5th/6th by production is earned.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
definitely.
And even before the PP got hot, it was average- which is still pretty good considering where the team sits.
I dont think most fans realize how good the PP has been- most likely either because the Isles have gotten few PP, relatively speaking, or because Isles fans often tend to be rather pessimistic. Or maybe its both lol?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 14, 2012 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
They had a few cold streaks on the PP...
Some were calling for Weights head…But the PP has been a strong suit for this team for most of the season…
Thanks for posting this.
Noticed 4 out of the top 6 teams in the east play in the Atlantic division. Just saying.
I find it surprising there are people who do not acknowledge it as the toughest division in the league.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 14, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Central is also very good this season
I’d take the Blackhawks or Wings against any team in the Atlantic. (Except the Isles, of course!)
If the Penguins were healthy (even without Crosby) I’d say it was no contest.
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Jan 14, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Great stuff
I know a lot of NFL coaches break their seasons up into 4 game chuncks so they don’t lose focus during a long season. I wonder if this is used by some NHL coaches to help motivate teams that may feel out of it early.
It would be nice to see the Isles in the top 8 for the next one!
Thanks for posting these.
I've had enough! It's time to call out Garth Snow!
@JPinVA
Not ashamed to admit it
I have Bruin-goal-differential envy. That thing is huge! It would only stand to reason that the man from Nantucket is a Bs fan.
by 4PeatSake on Jan 14, 2012 9:50 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Huge and historic
Not suitable for filming.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
The Flyers lead the league in penalty minutes...
how ironic? I’m not sure if the Isles being so lady like is a good thing…
Lady like?
Id be more inclined to call it disciplined… and when you dont have big guns, playing disciplined hockey is mandatory.
The Isles cant afford to play like the Bruins/Flyers- they just dont have the depth available yet.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 14, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
lady byng like, what ever u wanna call it...
The team would be better off to play with toughness like the Flyers IMHO…They are not good enough to act like they are the Red Wings…
Ha, good one :)
As far as that goes though, I fundamentally disagree with you.
I think the Islanders are absolutely better off playing like the Wings than trying to just bang bodies.
You have to look at spoecifically who is on this team, not just what your dream would be to see.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 14, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
When you like the skill you need to be even more physical...
and no team will win if all they did was JUST bang bodies, obviously…But all teams need to do that…Some need to do it even more, and this is one of them…
The bottom line is the Isles need secondary scoring, better defense, and a goalie who doesnt let up a soft goal every other night...
The reason our PP is so good is because it gives JT the chance to work his magic…We need the 2nd and 3rd lines to get better so they can have a more consistent attack while on 5 on 5…
I actually think a better defense solves the problem
If you have a better defense corps Frans, Grabs, PAP, Martin, et al. don’t have to worry about playing back as much and can open up the offense, which would lead to secondary scoring. Also having that better defense would let the goalies concentrate a little more, knowing that the back door is going to be covered, and they won’t have to cheat as much, which won’t necessarily stop all the soft goals but should help the situation.
by IDCWhoYouLike on Jan 14, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Agree
And then the soft goals — which every goalie gives up now and then — aren’t backbreakers.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Exactly
I think our group of forwards is better than most teams. (Now that Okposo, Bailey, and Grabner are playing better.) They could actually have a decent 4th line when Ullstrom returns. As disappointed as I was with the forwards the first 15 or so games, I’m optimistic about how the 4 lines will look next season with players improving (Bailey, Okposo, Ullstrom, Martin, Tavares [of course], Parenteau [first 20 games he was stellar]) and most of the dead wood will be gone next season (Rolston, Pandolfo).
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Jan 14, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
sounds all too familiar...
I’m optimistic about how the 4 lines will look next season with players improving
That's true, but...
…if Isles can avoid signing Rolston/Pandolfo type players, I think that will be a big plus. Hopefully the Guerin/Weight/Rolston era is about to come to an end.
Subtract Comeau and magically the 4 lines looked a lot better. Will the same thing happen by subtracting Rolston? (It seemed to work for the 1st PP unit, right?)
"The reader of this sentence exists only while reading me."
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Jan 14, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think if we can avoid the Rolston/Pandolfo/Staios type players being signed we are looking pretty good.
We have a lot of young talent that should be nhl ready at the start of next year or is now (Ullstrom/Cizikas/Rakhshani/Donovan/DeHaan and Wishart(reese might even be capable of a starting bottom 2 job)). We really have no need for those type of “fill-ins” to “protect” the kids any more. But I think even if we resign Nielsen/PAP/Martin/Montoya to healthy extensions, we still need DP"s cap hit unless we sign a $5mil/$6mil+ d-man onto the roster(or forward, but we all love how that worked this year. lol. And defense is our weakness). I really hope we land Suter at a king’s ransom, if not another d-man @5mil/yr for a couple years. Because if we don’t, we have another year of DP(might either way) no in the ahl/retired or we have another year of the cap mule(s). Please please please no cap mules, or at least no cap mules who rediculously underperform their contract(ROLSTON. lol).
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
we also need
to remove the gaping holes in this team
players like Mottau & Rolston have been killing us – we’d have a much better chance with 12 forwards and 6 defensemen who were all singing from the same hymn sheet
either our budget has caused that, or cluelessness from above – we’ve had the players to do this (Reese not used makes no sense – bring Ullstrom back ASAP etc – so obvious)
the difference between where we are and the bubble is minimal and small steps help
getting to the level of the Bruins or Rangers with a commitment to defense first will take much longer
I think we will trade for a goalie before next season
Monyoya has effectively been out for half the season and must be rated with a question mark. Nabby will be gone by March. Poulin still developing and is coming off a major injury and surgery. Nilsson acouple of years away from being a regular G on a winning NHL team.
Nah
Id bet that the NHL goalies going into next season are Montoya, Poulin, DiPi.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 14, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Unless
The Isles make some magical, improbable run to be in the playoff mix on the strength of Nabakov like he played a few years ago, he will not finish the season with the team and will not be back next season.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
agree
just saying Nabokov, Montoya & Poulin would be an acceptable 3-some to start next season
agreed with you that is unlikely – and that instead, a 3rd experienced keeper is likely to be signed offseason
instead, a 3rd experienced keeper is likely to be signed offseason
And who do you think is gone in order to do that- Montoya or Poulin?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 14, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
most likely
it will be just Montoya and Poulin doing a 60/40 split of duties, with Cappy (or whoever the coach may be) riding the hot hand, waiting to see who claims the #1 spot.
Amateurs practice til they get it right. Professionals practice til they can't get it wrong.
It will not be 60/40
Since Rick will have to get some starts in, too.
Maybe 50/35/15.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 15, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Prepare for it now.
Because it will be pretty pointless if people act all shocked and indignant by when it happens- like they did this season.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 15, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Nothing wrong with being indignant when the team continues to pile mistakes upon mistakes. The guy is not an NHL goalie. This has been established over the course of four seasons. He does not deserve a place on the roster, and stupid mistakes like that (would) make it difficult to support the team. It’s not even a mistake anymore-it’s insanity.
Both coming off serious injury and surgery.............
and neither will have played even a half season. My bet is that we end up with another veteran goalie next season. I wish Montoya/Poulin well, but Snow who knows the position will have another guy there right from the start.[IMO the only question is whether the new guy will be #1 or 2]
"Book your early-April tee times now. " Do golf courses take reservations that much in advance? lol
Good post. Rec’d. Nice to see everything layed out together. And imagine how good our PP would have been with Rolston not on the 1st unit for a lot of the year early on? lol.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Great job
Really enjoying these.
The Isles allowed 29 goals, with the league average at 28.8. This was actually tied for 13th fewest in the league.
Wow! Some teams must have gotten lit up!
Being so good on special teams is completely offset by lackluster play at even strength for the Islanders. Their -8 was tied for 24th in the NHL…
Yeah, it’s unfortunate the bulk of the game is played at even strength. Special teams are nice, but less important.
Love the big picture numbers. Put a lot into perspective, especially the 5-4-1 playoff number. In essence we’ve been a bubble team the last 20 games, but those first twenty once again sunk our season early.
It's probably
whoever played Boston. Last week on twitter, somebody ran something in goal differential that if you removed everyone’s games against the Bruins, there was like an additional 5+ teams in positive goal differential. (I feel like it may have been like 8)
Right now, there are 11 teams in the east with even or negative goal differential.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
