Nino Niederreiter Would Be a Very Special Case
Patrick Kane, Jeff Skinner, Taylor Hall, Jakub Voracek, Magnus Paajarvi, Guillaume Latendresse, Mikkel Boedker, Milan Lucic, David Perron, Nikita Filatov.
Those are the wingers who, according to a Hockey-Reference query, have played 10 or more games in a season at age 18-19 in the NHL since the lockout. Their first-year stats appear below.
Among them, there's a trio of instant stars, a few players who look pretty dangerous after a few years of understandably awkward development, and a few for whom the jury is very much out. Then there's also Nikita Filatov. (Speaking of which, if you listed Josh Bailey as a wing instead of a center, he'd be on the list, with his 25 rookie year points ranking him just behind the Perron-Lucic-Boedkker block.)
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | Tm | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | GC* | +/- | PIM | EV | PP | S | S% |
| 1 | Patrick Kane | 2007-08 | 19 | CHI | RW | 82 | 21 | 51 | 72 | 25 | -5 | 52 | 14 | 7 | 191 | 11 |
| 2 | Jeff Skinner | 2010-11 | 18 | CAR | RW | 82 | 31 | 32 | 63 | 26 | 3 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 215 | 14.4 |
| 3 | Taylor Hall | 2010-11 | 19 | EDM | LW | 65 | 22 | 20 | 42 | 17 | -9 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 186 | 11.8 |
| 4 | Jakub Voracek | 2008-09 | 19 | CBJ | RW | 80 | 9 | 29 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 101 | 8.9 |
| 5 | Magnus Paajarvi | 2010-11 | 19 | EDM | LW | 80 | 15 | 19 | 34 | 13 | -13 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 180 | 8.3 |
| 6 | Guillaume Latendresse | 2006-07 | 19 | MTL | RW | 80 | 16 | 13 | 29 | 12 | -20 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 121 | 13.2 |
| 7 | Mikkel Boedker | 2008-09 | 19 | PHX | LW | 78 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 10 | -6 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 116 | 9.5 |
| 8 | Milan Lucic | 2007-08 | 19 | BOS | LW | 77 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 9 | -2 | 89 | 7 | 1 | 88 | 9.1 |
| 9 | David Perron | 2007-08 | 19 | STL | LW | 62 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 68 | 19.1 |
| 10 | Nikita Filatov | 2009-10 | 19 | CBJ | LW | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 18.2 |
Will Nino Niederreiter join this list of rarities? If he makes the Islanders in camp and stays for good, yes.
Where will he fit on this list? That depends on opportunity and development, of course, but expectations should be tempered. Lucic is seen as a beast now after a 30-goal season (one I doubt he'll repeat), but note his modest rookie totals.
We've talked about Boedker, how he is closer to the Bailey camp than any other peers there.
Niederreiter was drafted to be a goal scorer in the power forward mold -- one who can use his body to carve out space for a shot that should make him a top-six winger. That doesn't mean fantasy wonks should be predicting 17 goals for him as a rookie -- nor that fans should assume he'll get top-six minutes or bust.
Often wingers his age are eased in. Often they are rushed, only to discover they should have been eased. If he's in the NHL this season, it will be a very important year for Niederreiter. But not because he needs to be a game-changing player now. Rather, because he needs to use this year to learn how to be a game-changing player later.
Without pr*j*ct*ng, how many goals do you expect from a full season of Nino?
* * *
*Goals Created is a Hockey-Reference formula. I don't see it cited often, so take it as you will, another attempt to rejig the worth of a player's contribution. They explain it as: calculated by adding goals scored to 0.5 times assists, then multiplying by team goals divided by team goals plus 0.5 times team assists. For example in 2006-07, Sidney Crosby had 36 goals and 84 assists. The Penguins as a team had 267 goals and 468 assists. Thus Crosby is credited with (36 + 0.5 * 84) * (267 / (267 + 0.5 * 468)) = 41.57 goals created. Note that the sum of player goals created is equal to the sum of player goals scored for all teams.
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Keep him in Portland!
I’m in the seemingly minority in wanting Nino back in Juniors. But if he’s here for the season, I see him at about 18-16-34.
by Dorfer on Sep 6, 2011 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Assuming 3rd line work with Comeau-Bailey
I’d say ~15. The Isles are too deep on forward. No team can pile on the rookie without paying for it on other shifts.
No Sleep 'til....
Think Segin
If they believe another year of junior won’t help his development, at least ease him into the lineup slowly. 55-65 games of 3rd or 4th lines sounds right.
This IS the year.
Putting him on the third or fourth line, playing ten or less minutes a night, could stunt his development.
The Islanders will roll four productive lines out this season, so I could accept him on the 3rd line. But unless he’s guaranteed top 9, or even top 6, minutes, send him back to Portland, save a year on his ELC, and watch him become more dominant and confident.
No it wouldnt.
Just playing an NHL season is a massive, massive adjustment.
And if he did wind up chomping at the bit ready to play more minutes, he would get them.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 7, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I could've sworn Jeff Skinner played Center, not wing.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
He's been listed as both
But was baptized mostly as wing last year, not center. I believe they mixed lines a lot, so I’m not sure how much time at center he had.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Gordon's demise could be a blessing for Niederreiter
Last September, asked about Gordon’s out of the ordinary system he answered: “I have never seen something like that”. The look on his face revealed he had no clue. With only three weeks time, Capuano’s system may be easier to learn.
It seems more logical and ordinary
Not saying Gordon’s system was bad. He needed the right personnel, and he didn’t have it because of injuries to Streit and Okposo, two of the better players for that system.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Sep 6, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
You may have helped me realize why I wanted Gordon to succeed
I remember back when players didn’t make enough where they could afford to not fear Mike Keenan.
Keenan’s teams in the ‘80s and early ’90s were pretty exciting to watch, including his lockout year with the Blues: It was basically a coach’s dream of smart, hustling hockey players going berserk — aided by the motivation of being sent to the firing squad if they didn’t perform. There was no passivity to it.
I always figure Keenan was a decent coach until 1) players made enough where they didn’t have to put up with being treated like that, and 2) the game got more trap-happy and he didn’t adapt. I don’t know if Gordon would’ve succeeded with a squad of good, smart players, but part of me is sorry I’ll never get to find out.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Now that's interesting
He did look lost for where to go at times, more than I expected even from a young pup.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen...... lmfao
I’ve never noticed that before. He is the Don in my eyes. One thing that draws me to this site is the Nielsen love…most other fans that only observe stats wouldn’t know. Off topic but I love it
I'm nothing if not a Frans Fanboy (Fransboy?)
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Indecision on the forecheck was the biggest thing, not unwillingness.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
That’s to do as much with Nino being Swiss as Gordon being Gordon, though. Roman Wick – not a kid, but maybe Switzerland’s best forward at the Olympics 2010 – had similarly no clue how to adapt to the systems even in the AHL with Binghampton, when he tried to make the jump a year ago in Ottawa’s organization. And most shockingly, he even seemed surprised (German link) so many systems are in place at all.
There’s a reason Switzerland hasn’t produced a single regular NHL forward and the bad development, the different approach to the game, just the fact that the players don’t know as much about their sports as North American players for example, are certainly part of it. Nino obviously did the right thing by going over early, but he still needs to learn a few things and I think it’s crucial they’ll be very specific about how he plays the game. In that sense these Gordon-type coaches are never bad for the development of the kids. But I’m sure the current coaching staff will do well in this regard, too. Weight’s a great help there, and I also believe Capuano’s individual coaching is much more specific than people might think.
Wow, what a tirade!
You make it sound like Niederreiter didn’t even try!
Niederreiter wasn’t the only player having trouble to quickly learn Gordon’s system. Ask the 2010 Team USA how that went at the World Championship? At the time I read an article stating that, the second week in, players still had trouble following Gordon’s directions at practice. And they weren’t rookies. Gordon is a good coach, but his system can’t be learned overnight.
You are right that Niederreiter still has a lot to learn, but you can’t reproach him unwillingness to adapt to a new system.
As of Wick, the comparison is inappropriate. Niederreiter is barely 19 and wants the NHL, badly. Wick is 25 and too used to the pampered swiss hockey life. He didn’t even really try.
I didn't read it as a tirade, but an explanation on the different levels of training each country provides.
Nino has had quite a few North American Systems to learn in a relatively short while and Gordon’s just may be the most complicated of them all.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
Exactly.
I didn’t even talk about (not) trying hard, willingness to adapt, etc. It was all about different levels of hockey education indeed.
Nor did I compare Nino or his situation to Roman Wick (who indeed lacks the mental aspect it takes to make the jump). But I think it’s very telling when the country’s best forward has no clue what such systems – in place in every NHL organization – even are about. I’m sure you find hundreds of 15-year old Canadians who know more about the specifics of NHL hockey.
I know Nino is different, more talented, probably mentally tougher than almost any Swiss foward who’s tried, but well, as Dom writes in the article, he’d be a very special case just based on “North American education”, but moreover has that kind of particular background indeed.
Also, though more or less unrelated to the fact that Nino’s Swiss, I think this list shows expectations should be very modest. Kane, Skinner, Hall, Voracek, Latendresse, Boedker and Perron all put up more points than Nino in the juniors. Paajarvi would, based on his very good production in the Swedish Elite league, certainly have done the same, Filatov maybe. Lucic is the exception on that list, but he’s probably a different type of player anyway.
Something similar revealed this little study of Gabe. Nino’s much closer there to Scheifele than Couturier and projects to play about 150 NHL games between now and age 26.
Obviously, this doesn’t mean Nino’s chances to become a real NHL player are necessarily bad, but yeah, it’s not automatic, and certainly not for him with his game and his background.
by BenHasna on Sep 7, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is 5-6 minutes a game on the 4th line worth keeping him?
That’s the question, I think. Because even if he looks to be top-6 from training camp (doubt it), he may hit a wall 30 or 40 games into the season. If he looks good enough, start him on the 4th line and have him earn a 3rd line spot as the season goes on. (And if he earns a top-6 spot, even better!) But don’t start him in the top-6 and move him down to the 4th line when he hits a wall.
I’m on the fence as far as sending him back to juniors. I think it comes down to whatever the team thinks is best for Nino’s development, and I’m okay with that.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Sep 6, 2011 7:53 PM EDT reply actions
Fourth line situations with 5-6 minutes is probably not the way to go,
but I could easily see him playing 10-12 minutes in third or even second line situations. He’ll need to work on the defensive end of his game like any rookie winger does. They will probably shelter him by giving him minutes with his regular linemates when they are in the offensive zone with a lead or even. If they are behind, he probably gives up his defensive zone starts on that line for a guy like Rolston or Reasoner. Short-handed he loses minutes as well, but could see some second unit PP time if he is really clicking in a particular game or if the Islanders have a huge lead.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
i cant believe it!!!!!!!!
A real story about the Isles in the Hockey News
Its says on the cover we are the OTHER new york team
thats good right?
Nino
should only make the team if he’s on the 3rd line
doubt he’s ready for the 1st line
Comeau-Bailey-Nino would seem a good bet
which then may have a domino effect – like no 9 games for Strome (otherwise do you sit PAP?)
and does that move Rolston to the 4th line?
am thinking this team will play all 4 lines in regular rotation with equal minutes unlike years past
Somewhat equal, I think
And that’s why I think JT will hardly ever take a defensive zone faceoff. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th lines should be able to advance the puck better than any Isles team in a long, long time. (And fresh legs will only help this.)
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Sep 6, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that's a clear exaggeration.
Even the sedin’s who took a ridiculous amount of offensive zone faceoffs, were on a line that took 3 defensive faceoffs for every 7 offensive faceoffs (or a little less).
In other words, Tavares will take a whole bunch of defensive zone faceoffs, as he has in the past. Maybe a bit less, and less than he takes offensive zone faceoffs to be sure. But let’s be realistic here.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
I'm done being realistic
This Islanders team is going to finish first in the Atlantic. Grabner will score 40. Starting goalie will post a .912 save . Hamonic 7 PPGs. And Tavares will take 96 of his draws in the offensive zone.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Sep 6, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Can someone enlighten me?
There’s always talk about replacing PAP on the Moulson-Tavares line which I think is a bit unwarranted. PAP busted his ass and earned that spot and unless he regress early this season I see no reason to juggle the 1st line, nor the pairing of Nielsen with Grabner. But what is with Comeau and Bailey always being uttered in the line? Maybe Bailey just can’t handle the COZO, I don’t know, but perhaps they would both perform better if Cap kept them on separate lines for a bit.
yes, but
Maybe put a banger in there to clear some space. PAP was effective, maybe a Martin or a Haley could clear some more room for them to work – or a future Nino…just miss that punch with Trotts, Bossey and Gillies. I had thoughts that OKposo could play a more physical game and bring that to the combo, but we’re still waiting on him to fully come into his own. This may seem like a jackass comment, but that’s what this blog is all about.
Not a jackass comment
It makes sense to an extent, but how much do you sacrifice by adding a banger? Haley could do that, but I don’t see him clicking like PAP did. Also, I didn’t make myself clear but I’m mostly just baffled as two why people feel Comeau and Bailey NEED to play on the same line similar to where PAP SHOULDN’T be on the same line as Molsoun-Tavares.
I think you'd sacrifice a lot
At least with the “bangers” the Isles currently employ. (No Gillies there.) PAP-JT-MM work, I think, because of complementary approaches and puck possession abilities.
I think maybe Comeau and Bailey get tossed together because of the “what do we do with the leftovers?” tendency, and the fact people see the first two lines as working pretty well as is.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Mmmm...mash
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
PAP carries the puck for the JT-MM line.
They can’t use a banger if they don’t have someone to carry the puck into the offensive zone and that was PAP’s role last season. Moulson is great in front of the net and the dirty areas. JT anywhere from the top of the circle, along the boards and around the net, but neither of these guys strengths are moving the puck up the ice quickly and carrying into the zone.
PAP can do that and then avoid the low areas, Okposo can do that as well as Comeau. Okposo may be the best at gaining the zone, but is limited in successfully scoring while driving to the net. Comeau gains the zone and then regains the zone and then regains the zone, but could change with different line-mates. Grabner is obviously another choice for a puck carrying wing, but he seems less likely to be a guy distributing the puck once he gains the zone, because he is more often on a fast break and could be waiting a while for his linemates to join the rush.
As much as the FnGO line, PAP,JT, MM lines worked last year, and Bailey seemd to find comfort with Comeau I think we are going to have to wait until training camp to see how the lines turn out. There are so many possibilities with the new forwards that it is premature to think anything is cast in stone. Moving Okposo to first line duty wouldn’t necessarily relegate PAP to third line either.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
If I had
to wager today, I’d probably bet that he ends up back in the juniors for one more year. Tough call, but I think there is enough depth finally that we don’t necessarily need him with the big club this year, so he’s really going to have to break down the door at camp.
Tyler Seguin is an interesting comparison. Different types of players, but the main difference is their teams. The Bruins were talented enough to be able to carry a player like him and bring him along slowly. The Islanders are going to need contributions from everyone on a nightly basis to win games. Mistakes are far more costly for the Islanders. Mistakes mean bad goals against, bad goals against mean bad losses, bad losses are bad news for a team on the bubble. I think this might be the biggest thing working against Nino this fall.
That said, if he makes the team, I think he finds his way to 14 goals, mostly playing on the 4th line, but maybe with some 3rd mixed in, and some 2nd PP unit.
Nino
Mostly on the third line with Josh Bailey and Brian Rolston.
Rolston-Bailey-Niederreiter
Martin-Reasoner-Comeau
When he needs to sit, put Haley on the fourth line and bump Comeau up.
I be very happy with 12 to 14 goals.
Comeau scored 24 goals last year
It makes no sense to put him on a line that is known more for defense responsibilities and limited offensive opportunities. The guy is perfect for the 3rd line, he just needs to be limited on his COZOs.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
N-25...BINGO
If he’s in the NHL this season, it will be a very important year for Niederreiter. But not because he needs to be a game-changing player now. Rather, because he needs to use this year to learn how to be a game-changing player later.
There are no guarentees that Nino will be a NY Islander come November. He will be given a fair shot, and if he EARNS his spot, then he will most likely learn his spot.
This is a 19 year old kid who has done somehting hundreds of 18 year old kids have done. He has done it as part of an organizaton who 2 short years ago would have had him in the NHL as an 18 year old (see Josh Bailey). Neither of the two parties involved need to go down that path again. If Nino shows the potential to be a contributing member of a playoff ready team, then he will be part of a playoff ready team. If not, there are some other candidates for the job.
If he does get the job, I’m all for the learn while you earn program. He’ll be put with an accomplished NHL center (most likely Reasoner) and if he shows the promise and responsibility we could very well see him playing with Nielsen or Tavares by Thanksgiving. We could also see his stats from Portland by Halloween.
I’m looking forward to seeing 25 perform deeds of daring do…. but I can wait another year. I’d really like to get his games from the WHL if he isn’t a NYI. Either way… Forza Nino!
Lighthouse Hockey: Home of the "STROME-BOLI"!
Thanks for voting "YES" on Aug 1st... just not enough of you!!!
"...but I can wait another year"
Yes, that’s the crazy thing about this year. I’m not all that excited about Nino, Strome, or deHann. The reason: Isles have MANY more reasons to be excited than in recent years past. I am much more excited about seeing Tavares, Grabner+Nielsen, Hamonic+AMac, Streit, Okposo, and even Reasoner…. From a fan’s perspective, I would like to see Nino for at least 9 games, but if he’s not quite ready, I won’t really be disappointed.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Sep 6, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He is a really tough case.
He’s too big and experienced for juniors IMO and he’s too young to send to BP. Putting him on the 3rd line really can’t be a benefit to him. Although I wouldn’t mind seeing him and Bailey play together. However the lack of icetime is concerning. He sure isn’t going to mess with the F’N GO line.
Until we cure this tea kettle there will never be enough bread in the laundry. Ding Dong! Karate!
It's that midseason conundrum
I think a lot of people would figure that, whether in juniors or the AHL, he might be ready for a jump by midseason. But it’s hard to make that call in October when it means keeping him in the NHL and banking on that curve.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Using a banger could work. Okposo will produce on a line with JT and Molson. Its a great fit. Nino likes to use his big body…which would be great for frans and Grabs. As they are 2 smaller forwards.
You put PA and Comeau on the wings with Bailey, and you have a productive 3rd line. Rolston and Haley/Martin/gillies can fill out the 4th line. and you have 4 dangerous lines.
not too mention all the depth we have in the bridge.
Without Nino on the team
The Islanders would have to make up about 3 million in cap space to be above the floor, and I don’t think we can just assume Bailey is going to get signed anymore.
"Maybe (Frans) should concentrate more on FO rather than the thugging aspect of his game." - AP77
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
If Bailey isn't signed then someone else would be that could command at least that cap space.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
Nino Addition
I think this is an important season for the team and fans. The talent pool is coalescing and developing nicely. The team had a great run after a abysmal last December/January. Now we need to see what we have with injured players returning, some new kids to test and a new coaching system from the beginning of the season.
Nino is a very, very important part of the solution. I don’t see the team returning him back to Juniors. There is little for him to gain there. He has to learn how to play the pro-game in the NHL. If he can harness his skills he would be giving the team a much needed power forward to create space for JT and MM long term. I do see Capuano playing him in the 3rd and 4th lines while he develops and then moving him up in the ranks as he matures.
With the addition of Rolston, Reasoner and Nino the team has the potential of putting out on the ice 11 players that could score 15 or more goals for the season. If Martin can develop offensively then….If healthy the team could be an offensive force putting tremendous pressure on our opponents.
Hopefully they all reach their potential..
because if they are busy scoring we won’t be defending as much!! We still need to lower our goals against to start the steady climb in the standings.
In loving memory;Dad thanks for making us Islanders fans, ACC 1918-2011
Without pr*j*ct*ng, how many goals do you expect from a full season of Nino?
Isn’t this the same as saying “I don’t mean tot be a racist, but…”?
It’s pr*j**ting! We don’t pr*j**t at Lighthouse.
Anyway, 15 goals.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
Touché
Guilty as charged.
And I don’t have anything against projections — I have friends who do projections.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Looking back at the end of next season how many goals do you think Nino will have scored?
See you are not projecting, you are looking back from the future.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
by Hockey1919 on Sep 9, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

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