Is Bailey a Lock to Make the Roster?
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Sep 25, 2011 12:57 PM EDT
Email
PrintI ask because of this story on the Islanders' website. Key quote:
Four players who played in last night’s exhibition against Boston will also be in tonight’s lineup against the Devils. Josh Bailey, Trevor Gillies and camp invites Jay Pandolfo and Steve Staios will all receive a second look from the Islanders coaching staff and management.
Bailey in the same breath as Gillies, and the two invitees? "Second look"? More:
Bailey signed a two-year deal a few hours prior to the start of Training Camp. Capuano wasn’t specific when he was asked where he sees Bailey within the team’s depth chart.
“I think I see Josh where Josh wants to see himself,” Capuano said. “I think Josh has all the talent in the world, skill level in the world. He’s got a great passion for the game. He’s a competitive kid. He had a little bit of inconsistent play last year, but he’s at the point now where I don’t have to tell Josh too much. Josh knows what he has to do and that’s what I really like about Josh. He’s hard on himself, so I don’t need to be hard on him. He’s just got to find his way.”
While I initially thought I was overreading, Metzfan22 pointed out that the Reporter on the liveblog seemed to confirm Bailey's precarious position on the roster (see here, where he repeatedly refers a participant to the article cited above).
What does this mean? A trade? Waivers? I have to assume Bailey would not clear waivers. Or is his spot basically secure but not his place on the third line? Or is Cappy just trying to scare Bailey straight?
Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.
63 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I am not so sure
I think he may be a healthy scratch at times early.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Sep 26, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
and it is not because I don't like his game
I think he has improved, I like some parts of his game and believe he is very valuable….but the long wait to sign him seems strange….he needs to step up at least his faceoff if not his scoring
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Sep 26, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Worst case scenario, he's a healthy scratch. I doubt anyone, especially garth, would give Bailey up for free through waivers. Someone would definitely pick him up.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
who's their fourth center?
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Sep 25, 2011 3:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well Reasoner would get bumped to the 3rd line, or you could play Rolston as the 3rd line center.
If not/or your 4th line center options are Haley/Ullstrom/Cizikas and maybe someone I’m forgetting. It’s not really much of a loss given Bailey’s overall play last year, but could be a loss if he makes a decent improvement over last year.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Trade Bait not Waive
The thing is Bailey can’t be demoted to the AHL … He’d have to go on waivers … ala a Grabner like situation. Bailey would certainly be picked up for free on waivers. That isn’t an option for Garth. Bailey is Garth’s pet project since he was sharply criticized for selecting him by dropping down twice in the 2008 draft.
Now as far as a trade goes … that might be possible … but Garth isn’t going to take on someone’s cap problem for a player of equal skill value … think about it … he balked at the length and money Bailey’s agent wanted for him, so he’s not going to take on a more restrictive contract for equal skill. It would have to be an upgrade. I’m not sure what team would make a good partner in a trade involving Bails … so I’ll pretty much go with the most likely scenario … and that is that Josh stays put … and adds 30 points to last year’s totals… I think a more skilled Islander team this year opens things up for Bails. I’m rootin’ for the kid.
by 19 Isle in NJ 22 on Sep 25, 2011 4:52 PM EDT reply actions
Not enough, Kings would rather the draft picks. And I'm not sure the Kings would even want Bailey.
They have Kopitar/Richards/Stoll and no need for Bailey.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Just Throwing It Out There
But you have to figure that at some point Garth, now that he’s got prospect depth, is going to sweep in and make a deal like this for a high-end player, the kind of deal that makes everybody sit up and say, wow, this franchise is back.
Yeah, that's the funny thing about Doughty, he is that good. Top 10 d-man in the NHL now with the ability to mature into a top 5 d-man.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Agreed, at some point Garth has to make that big move to put us over the top.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
I think we need a big deal.......
just to have a real run for the play-offs – De Haan is to young,, inexperienced, and too small to be that guy we need now.
Yeah, right now we really aren't set-up for the playoffs unless we see some magical goaltending and some above average D from a guy that was crippled last year.
This team is set-up to be a bubble team, not a should be playoff team.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
That statement from Cappy seems to be for motivation.
I’ve said it a couple of times now, this is a make it or break it year for Bailey. He’s an experienced NHL player, he knows what he needs to do, has the talent to do it, now he’s just got to go out there and get it done.
He’s in a slump right now counter to what the the rest of the team are going through. We have a lot of young guys who are stepping up and doing pretty well for themselves. All Bailey had to do was look at Okposo, Grabner, and Tavares getting new deals over the summer to see the effects of that success.
The problem with Bailey seems to be mental right now. He puts a lot of pressure on himself and is probably down a bit on his play considering how his contract situation went compared to everyone else’s. Over thinking what he has to do is only going to hurt him.
Sometimes the best way to get out of a slump is to not think about distractions and just play. That seems to be the message Cappy is trying to send. Bailey knows how to play, now its time to just do it.
Isles jerseys I've owned: Fisherman, Tim Connolly, Josh Bailey RBK Edge edition. I've got a history of success.
It seems like all of my internet rabble rousing re: "BAILEY SUCKS!!!!" has finally paid dividends
by AP77 on Sep 25, 2011 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
well, he doesn't suck
he may never be much of a scorer, but he plays a decent defensive game – he sucks only relative to original expectations perhaps
the real issue with Josh is, is his desfense enough to make him a part of a team going forward that has Centers such as
JT, Strome, Lee, Nelson
not to mention Nielsen, Cizikas & Reasoner
I don’t really see a role for him if the right trade is out there
would like to think the hard checks of Komisarek (see Youtube) would work well with Streit (but Komi does take a lot of penalties – Refs would be whistle happy on him if he was with us, so maybe that doesn’t work)
but Burke could be willing to give more in a trade – he must be desperate if he had half a brain
maybe even more tempting is a package such as Bailey, Nabokov, de Haan for Shea Weber (though the risk of course is that Weber would only stick for a year a la Smyth – ugh…)
Thoughts
1. Bailey is not a good defense player.
2. Komisarek is terrible.
3. Nashville’s GM would be fired and then promptly murdered if he did that trade.
linemates
methinks his stats are deflated by mostly being on a line with COZOman
he looked very good on the PK last night
No
All of that is adjusted for — there are many posts on LHH about Bailey and how he was really bad defensively last season. It’s not about linemates or opposition.
Any argument that Bailey is good defensively because he looked good “last night” is a non-starter for obvious reasons.
I mean, look, I hope Bailey does well this season. I really do. But he was bad, bad, bad last year at everything.
That's really not it at all
He wasn’t bad, bad, bad last season and this is where the blurry line before fun hyperbole and detail is problematic.
Numerically he ranked behind the the two set top lines which he could not crack but which performed fine without him. In some Behind The Net categories he was behind Comeau, in others he was in the same vicinity. It’s definitely not about opposition, but it could easily be about linemates and opportunity as well as his own admittedly disappointing year.
Meanwhile, among the regular penalty killers he rated fine, which isn’t the mark of a really bad defensive player.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Sep 26, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He’s basically got negative corsi scores across the board, which isn’t the market of a good defensive player by any stretch.
by AP77 on Sep 26, 2011 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unless, he is a completely god awful offensive player and his defense is above average.
And the linemates have to factor in a little, but Comeau isn’t the weak link of that line, so….. . The jury is out, but Bailey isn’t an excellent defensive forward yet that you can count on to shutdown top 6 players, shutdown bottom 6 players? Maybe, but not yet imo.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
another stat
just going by salaries, he’s a 4th liner
(9 guys make more than Josh + Frans should make more than him as well – that’s 10 guys on the team above Josh – and that’s about right)
he works nicely enough as a 4th liner, being able to PK as well – that worked last night
we aren’t going to play Nielsen on the PP & PK and the 2nd line – there’s only so much of him to go around, great as he is – let Josh contribute with Martin on the PK & the 4th line
so why get into a pissing match about Josh – makes no sense – the numbers aren’t telling the story here
this argues that Haley may not make the team interestingly
Absolutely disagree
One of the things that he HAS shown is that he can be a good player defensively. Did you watch him last night?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 25, 2011 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Bailey was great defensively last night, but small sample.
I know offense is Bailey’s main problem, but his defense hasn’t close to made up for his offensive deficiencies as a 3rd liner or player for that matter. Last year he was a sub-par 3rd line center, no ifs ands or butts about it. That’s not to say he’s isn’t an ok/above-average defensive player, which he could be, it’s just that he isn’t defensively well enough to play against 3rd line competition in a checking role and be successful at it. He’s not there yet. Reasoner is though, just as an outside example.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
No, he has not
His defensive metrics last season were terrible. His reputation for being a good defensive player are vastly overblown. There have been several posts around here that illustrate this.
Please look at the words I chose
I didnt say that he was consistently good defensively, did I? Nope.
What I DID say was that he “HAS shown is that he can be a good player defensively”. And, he has. He definitely needs to be a lot more consistent about it- that would help the stats upon which you are basing your opinion.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 26, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I mean, consistency is what makes you a good defensive player in general, not having a few good games here and there (like Bailey).
Again, I’m not trying to pile on Bailey. In fact, now that a lot of people are viewing him as a question mark, I’m thinking of going heel to face on him. That’ll be good fun. :)
I'd like to see
such stats reflect any goals scored by the opposition when Josh was on the ice, and DP let in a soft goal – which happened about a million times last year
(and if we are going to do new stats, how about soft goals let in by keepers – DP may be the all time NHL leader on a per minute basis…)
was Josh on the ice when DP wasn’t paying attention during that faceoff?
numbers only tell you so much
what were Josh’s 1st half CORSI vs 2nd half? improved in the 2nd half? not?
No, if I recall correctly, he didn’t improve in the 2nd half and may have even gotten worse.
We can’t blame DP for it all. His shitty play was a constant for all of the Islanders. I’m just saying that if you’re looking for evidence that Bailey is a good defensive player, you aren’t really going to find it. Asserting it is more just like advancing speculation — sort of like how BCISLEMAN used to say that Bailey would be in the HOF, everyone thought Bailey was going to be captain, etc.
Not sure how all of this wild speculation re: Bailey started.
I mostly see
A few people who go BCISLEMAN on him, a few people who go AP77 on him, and a bunch of people who see his high points and low points and wonder just what the 21-year-old (22 by opening night) will become.
His possession numbers [note: Script takes a while to load] were weak last year. So were his linemates, quite often. Evolution from any and all of them would be welcome.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Sep 26, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bah
I only chaired the Bailey to Scapewagon committee because (1) what seemed like out-of-proportion prognostications about Bailey’s impending stardom and (2) more importantly, to point out that Bailey — as an anointed member of TEH CORE per (1) — was never subject to the sort of criticism as RSH, of whom I was a shameful fanboi.
Bailey
isn’t part of the TEH CORE. HE IS TEH CORE!!!!
by afrosupreme on Sep 26, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pick a name: Schremp, Bailey, Comeau, Jeff freaking Tambellini...
…and you will find a few people who worship and a few who tear them down at every opportunity.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Sorry Dom
You know, which name does not belong in the group – even some IQ tests and even SATs have them. well guess what Comeau doesn’t belong on this list, although I really don’t get what you’re driving at?
When it comes to fan reaction
All four of those names have a place. If you read comments a lot, there have been vocal defenders and prosecutors of all of the above.
My point is just because someone is loud (BC on Bailey, several on Comeau, a few on either side of Tambellini and Schremp), doesn’t mean they represent prevailing opinion.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
No way. Way more for Weber.
They don’t want one year of Nabokov- they’ve got Rinne and LIndback. We’d probably have to give up Nino or Strome to get Weber. Although I always thought: Bailey, De Haan, Nelson, and a 1st for Weber could maybe work- or something like Bailey, Donovan, and a 1st for Suter.
Nashville
mind you, they aren’t going to make a trade before the season and I was just throwing a quick idea up there
but if either Weber or Suter is expected to walk at season’s end (both contracts are up)
Nashville’s longer term plans may include a trade of one of these guys – mid this season possibly
and how much can you get for a rental?
Weber isn't a rental, he'd be RFA. Suter would be a rental.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Play him, bench him or trade him...those R the only options
so Bailey is a lock to make the team…demote him, he goes through waivers, both Bailey and Wishart would never make it past the first 5 teams who have the opportunity to pick them up off waivers.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Sep 25, 2011 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I didn't read anything into the official site post
And I didn’t read anything into the live blog, either. There in response to “What’s up with Bailey?”:
The Reporter:
Nothing is UP with Bailey. Just read the blog: http://islanders.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=2811
Capuano knows Bailey needs to be better than last year, and Bailey knows it too. The team also knows they can’t afford to demote him, because the waiver risk would be like Florida with Grabner last year (not saying Bailey is going to become a Grabner, but he has enough untapped talent to scare his drafting team from taking that risk now).
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I may be guilty of over-reading but you may be under-reading
Because there was also an exchange where a fan asks how Haley and Martin can both make the team given the number of forwards who are “locks” and The Reporter’s response is “you’re making too many assunptions” and refers the guy to the blog post on the team site. It’s clear he’s talking about Bailey because Bailey is the only forward the fan listed as a “lock” who is discussed in the blog post.
I don’t know who The Reporter is but he clearly got the impression from Capuano that Bailey’s spot on the roster is at risk.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Sep 26, 2011 5:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I thought assumptions referred to
whether Bailey would be 3rd or 4th line, center or wing. I didn’t get the impression Bailey could be cut from this roster.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
As he stands now he is at the least an average 3rd line center
Just because we are dissapointed he hasn’t developed in to a top 6 forward yet does not mean he has no place. He’s actually ahead of the curve on his defensive game at his age. The worst I can picture for him this year (assuming a full season) is 15-25-40 with an ok to good +/-. That’s really not bad for the bottom 6.
No Sleep 'til....
And I'm not saying he is great defensively
Just better than you would expect a 21 year old in this league.
No Sleep 'til....
I wouldn't say average, where is Garik's corsi season stats thread? That could help, or Garik's other Bailey corsi/breakdown threads?
We gotta find them.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
He had two posts
The first was high on his defensive play:
but at season end he found that Bailey regressed:
http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2011/3/22/2064387/a-quick-look-at-the-play-of-islander-forwards
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Sep 26, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks a lot, yeah, not surprising to read. I though Bailey regressed in the 2nd half of last year a lot.
He started hot, and even his defense wasn’t bad when his offense went cold, but he was just dreadful the last couple months of the year.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Bailey+
A pik + a prospect for a real 2nd pair D, maybe Garth’s shopping as I write?
A Few Thoughts on Josh
I’m a big fan of Josh and while I’m reluctant to make excuses for any player’s peformance (other than injury related) I feel that Josh deserves to be cut some slack for his first three years due to some external factors: 1) I think most of us can agree he would have benefited from at least one more year in juniors but was rushed as Garth began his rebuild. 2) The team he joined was in a state of flux with a major roster revamp underway and the “veteran” players who surrounded him and could have helped in his adjustment to the NHL were mainly 2nd and 3rd liners “traveling through” the Island with questions about their own futures. 3) What’s His Role?? – That’s something that seems to have changed periodically depending on injuries,conference standings, coaching philosophy. One thing I have observed over the years is that young players are poorly served on any team when they are not given a specific role to fill (plug and play is what sucessful teams do with veterans!).
Welcome, naspiorad
Thanks for joining and commenting.
I’m pretty sympathetic to that viewpoint. I think Bailey has to show much more than he has to become an important player, but given his age and those extenuating circumstances, I’m not shocked he hasn’t done it yet. That’s not a pity party for Bailey — as many point out, he’s been compensated well for his time — it’s just recognition that players his age are apt to go through such growing pains unless they’re true standouts (and let’s remember even Tavares, a true standout, has had his growing pains but has benefited from a constant, clear, unchanging role).
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I don't really accept those excuses.
I don’t think his being rushed hindered his development – I just think it inflated expectations. If anything the additional year at the NHL level showed him how much work he had to do.
The other 2 excuses (linemates/ostion switch) I don’t believe are major factors in his lack of performance. He just hasn’t been an offensive force with the puck. That is not because of his linemates or his position. He just doesn’t scare defenders. One thing about Josh that most fans don’t seem to realize is that he just isn’t very fast. The d-men don’t need to over-commit to him when he has the puck. He needs to push his pace. When he makes aggressive moves with the puck he’s very effective. Otherwise he is too slow.
But he is only going to be 22 yrs old this season. Hockey players peak at 25 or 26. He will continue to improve for 3 or 4 more years. It is way too early to give up on Josh. I think he will have a decent year this year and some people will change their negative opinions of him. Then next year I think he’ll be a significant asset.
But linemates and role do contribute with a guy like Bailey
In two years with Windsor he was 40-91-131. He can pass the puck well. You give him the right linemates and his assists move up.
No Sleep 'til....
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Lighthouse Hockey
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
Islanders Schedule
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- End is near for Rick Nash, Blue Jackets as trade discussions set to resume
- Why the Devils and the Kings are evidence the Capitals shouldn’t trade Alex Ovechkin
- Eulogy: Remembering the 2011-12 New York Rangers
- Stanley Cup Final: 5 keys for New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings
- Friday’s Three Stars: Devils head to Final; Brodeur, Kovalchuk the difference in Game 6
SBNation.com Recent Stories
1979-80
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
