Who'll Be Around on October 8th: Forward Edition
by Chris McNally on Sep 17, 2011 4:00 AM EDT
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PrintNow that Josh Bailey is finally officially in the mix, the fun that is training camp begins. With a ton of forwards in camp, Garth Snow and Jack Capuano will have some tough decisions to make by the time the team breaks camp in October.
It's safe to say there are 10 forwards that are locks to be in the Opening Day lineup. Unless hell freezes over or Garth pulls off a major deal, John Tavares, Matt Moulson, P.A. Parenteau, Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner, Kyle Okposo, Blake Comeau, Brian Rolston, Bailey, and Marty Reasoner will all be skating against Florida on October 8th. That leaves a hand full of forwards fighting it out for most likely 3 spots (1 scratch) on the Islanders come Opening Day. Below I'll weigh the pros and cons of each candidate and the percentage of likelihood he'll make the team.
Micheal Haley (Chances of being around on Opening Day: 60%)- Mr. Haley became a folk hero last season after taking on Brent 'The Facebreaker" Johnson in the now famous Penguin Massacre. And while no Penguins were harmed during the writing of this FanPost, fans will be hoping Haley will be around to take out one or two during the regular season. Haley has drawn first blood (ask Sean Avery) and has shown in limited NHL games that he can also wrinkle the twine. Again, being 4th line material helps his cause.
Trevor Gillies (Chances of being around on Opening Day: 55%)- It's amusing to watch Trevor on the bench every game, with that look like someone refuses to leggo his eggo. But besides comic relief and a 5 minute major for fighting, Gillies doesn't bring much else to the table. He is loyal and will stick up for a teammate, sometimes in the most idiotic way imaginable. The team needs protection, but a maturer Martin and more well-rounded Haley probably could be enough. Trevor gets 55% because he's the guy who will least be affected by the dreaded Healthy Scratch, making it easier to keep him around.
Nino Niederreiter (Chances of being around on Opening Day: 45%)- Here is where it starts to get tricky. Fans would love to have El Nino playing wing on Opening Day. I'm sure Garth Snow would love to have Nino in the Opening Day lineup as well. Cappy I'm still not sure of, but there are 2 and a half questions concerning Nino making the team. One is if Nino is ready for the NHL. I think he is. Two is: are the Islanders willing to play Nino on the 4th line, and a half: if they're not and Nino makes the team, who gets bumped down to the 4th line. Nino's upside and contract make him appealing, although the head coach doesn't seem, and I stress seem, as gaga over Nino as everyone else invovled.
Ryan Strome (Chances of being around on Opening Day: 20%)- Why? That's how I feel. The kid has skills and one more year in juniors is advised so we don't Josh Bailey the kid. But the way the puck seems to magically follow his stick has fans drooling of the future, and some want the future to be now. I believe in patience, but we know how Garth loves his toys, so there's still a chance he could be wearing blue and orange on October 8th.
Casey Cizikas (Chances of being around on Opening Day: 10%)- I don't think the kid is ready. It'd be nice to see him have a full pro season before we throw him into the fire. But bringing him along slowly with 4th line minutes would, unlike some other prospects, be beneficial to Cizikas. He'll most likely be a grinder in his NHL career and that's what he would be asked to do in 11-12. If this was 2009 his chances would shoot up to 50%, but with a lot of depth at forward, Casey probably won't be at the bat until next season.
Jay Pandolfo, David Ullstrom, Rhett Rakhshani, Justin DiBenedetto, and any other forward in camp (Chances of being around on Opening Day: 5%)- Two seasons ago there was Moulson and Rob Schremp. Last year it was Parenteau and Grabner. Garth Snow likes finding diamonds in the rough and giving them a shot on the team. Of the 4 guys above he's batting .750. But like I said with Cizikas, in 2009 there was room for guys like that, but when you're this deep into a rebuild with a team who has 5 returning 20 goal scorers plus former first rounders Okposo and Bailey, there really isn't much room for someone to steal a spot. But part of the reason you have training camp is to see what you have and field the best team from it, so there's always a chance for these guys, albeit a very tiny one.
Obviously this was just one man's opinion and I know there'll be a lot of debate over the percentages I've given each player. If I left anyone out they are most likely part of the 5% crew. I'm looking forward to October 8th to see how this all played out.
Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.
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Nino has a much better chance than you give him credit for.
I put him as a near certainty to be on this team, barring a disastrous training camp.
Rolston will play on the fourth line.
Moulson-Tavares-Parenteau
Grabner-Nielsen-Okposo
Comeau-Bailey-Niederreiter
Martin-Reasoner-Rolston
Those are very likely your opening night lines.
The percentage was based on:
1. The Isles lack of need to rush young prospects like they used to
and
2. The lukewarm reception he’s gotten from Cappy this summer, which may be absolutely nothing. Heck its most likely absolutely nothing. But it can’t be ignored. To say he’s a near certainty and saying there’s no chance both Martin and Haley can make this club out of training camp is stretching it a bit.
I just scored another Tuscan Dairy goal!
by Chris McNally on Sep 17, 2011 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Haley is great, but he does not provide the ceiling Nino does.
I didn’t say there was no chance both Martin and Haley would both make the team; but barring a disastrous camp, Nino will be on this team over Haley. Nino has nothing left to prove in juniors, and Haley is a good fourth line grinder, but Nino is already a lot more than that. By saying 45%, you insinuate that you think Nino has a better chance of not making the team than making it. That’s just false.
Nino is already more than what?
Because he has 1 goal in 9 NHL games? I’ve seen a million and a half first round picks never amount to anything in the NHL, so until the guy produces in the NHL how on earth can you say he’s anything? For all you know he can be the next coming of Scott Scissons. I don’t believe he will, but the notion that Nino is almost a lock for a spot is the one that is false my friend.
I just scored another Tuscan Dairy goal!
by Chris McNally on Sep 17, 2011 7:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Michael Haley will never have the talent and ceiling Nino has now. Nino is already more than Haley can be (Haley is a grinder).
Going into training camp, every indication is that he has the upper hand at a roster spot. He has a much better than 45% chance to break camp with the Islanders.
Also
Niño- 9 games, 1 goal. Haley- 27 games, 2 goals. It’s small sample sizes but just saying, let’s not act like Micheal Haley is any more a proven commodity than Nino
Given that the general theme on LHH is unwavering absolute optimism when it comes to first round prospects, chrismc’s POV is a little refreshing but I think a little to dark for my tastes. Scott Scissions? Ouch! That’s a harsh example. I’d like to think our scouting dept. Is doing a little better of a job than those days (these were the genius’s that drafted Chyzowski with a 2nd overall pick and Kevin Cheyvaldayoff, and Dean Chenoweth…)
Comparing Haley and Nino is a little of apples and oranges but I’d have to agree with you metzfan that Nino has more than 45% chance than making the team and of course has a lot more upside than Haley (I’m curious how these percentages were calculated. Is there a mathematical formula that shows Nino has a 45% of making the team?)
Having a ceiling
doesn’t mean that much to a team that wants to win games now. I think there is a great chance that Haley can contribute more at the NHL level now than Nino can. And that should count for a lot.
But the team doesn't lack for goal scoring
it lacks for toughness. I agree with MattM11 that is an apples to oranges comparison between the two, but I do think that it will be an assessment of what the rest of the team needs more.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
I'm not sure there would be much of a difference of on-ice toughness(fighting aside) with Nino and Haley.
Based on last year’s numbers. It’s safe to say that Nino is going to bring 145-170 checks per year vs Haley’s ~165-170 per year. I give this battle to Nino because of his size for checking. Then you have the size battle (last year’s numbers) 6’2’’ 205lbs nino vs 5’10’’ 204lbs Haley, although similar in weight, Nino is a bigger(literally) force on the ice. And we all saw the Calamari incident last year, Nino isn’t afraid to scrum with people and agitate. Fighting aside, I’d say it’s close in terms of the toughness they bring. Size is obvious. Size doesn’t necessarily equal toughness, but size definitely helps make a team tougher, and Nino helps/wins there.
Then take other things into account, say on-ice liability as a big importance. I’m fairly confident saying that Nino would be less of a liability in bottom 6 minutes next year then Haley would too. Minor penalty taking wise, Nino easily looks better in. Haley had .370/gm minor penalties in 8:01toi/gm and Nino had penalties 0.333/gm in 13:35toi/gm. Taking toi into account, Haley takes slightly less then double the penalties Nino does per min of toi, which is safe to say considerably more PK time for us.Then look at last year’s corsi(brief but all we have), it still has to favor nino considerably. Nino had a -12.7 corsi-rel rating last year against a very high level of competition(relativeQoC) of 0.951 vs Haley’s -22.4 corsi-rel against weak 4th line minutes of -0.803. 2 completely different ends of the spectrum, and this is not even taking Nino’s maturation over the past year into account. And stats-wise, without digging too deep into stats, I’m pretty sure we all agree that Nino would be more productive in, especially goalscoring.
I’ll agree that if we are giving this player 9-10min/gm, Haley would better fit this role because 9min/gm of on ice time would be bad for Nino’s abilities, but based on last year’s numbers, I don’t see Nino getting less then 13min/gm if he makes the team and that’s enough for me to warrant him making the team fine.
Don't know, a lot of this is pretty subjective
Haley takes slightly less then double the penalties Nino does per min of toi, which is safe to say considerably more PK time for us.
Haley was supposed todo that last year…and of those minors, how many may have been instigators or matching minors?
Nino had a -12.7 corsi-rel rating last year against a very high level of competition(relativeQoC) of 0.951 vs Haley’s -22.4 corsi-rel against weak 4th line minutes of -0.803.
A bit of an unfair comparison here as Nino played his games with basically the healthies part of the team all season. Who were his linemates? Wasn’t he sheltered pretty good (by Frans even)? Haley played with Konopka and Martin and Gillies most of the time
I can’t really believe I’m arguing the point, because I expect Nino to be better than Haley, but I feel like Haley also won’t look as bad playing with Reasoner and player X on the 4th thisyear.
Also, let me know when Nino makes Avery bleed his own blood.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Italics, not cross outs
dammit
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Nino played most of his minutes with Weight and "fat" grabner, not exactly sheltered.
Haley played most of his minutes with Konopka and Martin. I do agree that it was a different level of teammates, but it was also a completely different level of competition. But the thing was, Haley didn’t have a ton of minutes and Haley and was almost as bad as konopka corsi-wise while Martin was best player on the line. Nino was the worst player on his line, but obviously was playing with better player. I agree it isn’t as huge of a gap as it looks, but Nino is/was still the better 2-way player last year.
I’ll look up the Haley penalties right now:
-10 minors last year:
1-clipping(not matching)
1-interference(not matching)
1-boarding(not matching)
1-roughing(matching)
1-roughing(not matching-not a double minor for roughing either)
1-roughing(matching)
1-roughing(matching)
1-unsportsmanlike conduct(not matching)
1-roughing(not matching)
1-instigator
But we could also say Nino got unlucky with 1 of his 3 penalties, he got a double minor for non-purposeful blood(high-sticking). It’s closer then I thought it would be penalty wise(taking into account matching minors/instigators), but Nino still has the edge and matching minors is still a negative thing. Matching minors isn’t something that is good for your team, it hurts you a lot more then it helps, especially in close games.
I do agree on all of your other points though for the most part.
You wanna go 4 on 4
with Grabs and Frans???
Kidding, I agree with you, but my point mostly is that it will be more a matter of if the team thinks they need 10-20 goals or 150 hits and penalty minutes.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Don't forget they need the cap hit
If Nino doesn’t make the team then Strome HAS to.
No Sleep 'til....
Not necessarily
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 17, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It kind of does right now. Just take a look:
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=21
Starting with 3 goalies, 7 d-men and 13 forwards, we need to make $48million(hopefully with lee way for trades if needed).
Throw all the locks into the cap floor with the 3 goalies and most likely starting 7 d-men (JT/Moulson/PAP/Grabs/Nielsen/Okposo/Rolston/Comeau/Bailey/Reasoner/ . D-Streit/A-mac/Hamonic/Eaton/Jurcina/Mottau/Wishart and DP/Nab/Montoya). So that leaves us with $3,642,584 to barely his the floor spent on 3 forwards. Look at what we have signed for prospects/nhl forwards right now besides that group, not including Nino/Strome: Martin-$852.5k Gillies-$625k, Haley-$550k, Cizikas-$900k, Kabanov-$900k, Ullstrom $891.666k, and everyone else is lower. Any 3-combo of those forwards to fill out the roster leaves us just shy of $1million under the cap(right at ~$950k under). Think this can be solved with swapping d-men? Nope.De Haan has the highest d-contract not in the NHL at $1.47mil/yr and Macdonald-$550k and Mottau-$800k are the lowest D-contracts, and we aren’t ahling MacDonald and neither swap of a-mac/Mottau for DeHaan would put us over the cap, so that doesn’t work. And lastly, even swapping DeHaan for a goalie doesn’t work. Swap Nabokov’s lowest goalie contract at $570k with DeHaan on the roster and we are still $50k short of the salary floor.
Short answer, it just doesn’t work with all the players we have signed under contract(ahl/nhl/2-way) unless Nino’s salary makes the team(or Strome once signed). It’s impossible for us to make the cap floor any other way, “unless” one of our starting roster players gets put on the LTIR for the rest of the year “before” the season starts, short term would be cap circumvention and would throw us under the floor the second that player is back.
So, barring a season ending injury to one of our starting players or a trade/signing that brings in a well-paid d-man/forward, Nino(or Strome) must be on the opening day roster and make the team for us to be over the cap floor. It’s the sad(possibly) truth and there is no way around it.
my understanding is
that is we don’t make the cap floor the leftover money is just distributed amongst the active roster players. So I don’t think we necessarily have to have anyone make the roster who Cappy doesn’t want.
Pr*j*ct**ns lead to long term injuries, just ask the asian guy from Inception
Ive seen that mentioned many times
even by reputable sources. Ive also seen it invalidated by others.
I dont think the CBA specifies exactly WTH would be done in a situation like that, though.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 18, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I haven't read that in the CBA either. But I know they can bring a team hell for going under the floor or over the ceiling.
But it’s not gonna be good either way, so I wouldn’t chance it.
Garth could easily pick anyone up off waivers and solve whatever problem there might be. Theres also trades. The point is just that the Isles dont HAVE to have Nino up unless they WANT Nino up.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 18, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, it's definitely able to be worked around, but not as easy as you'd think.
You say pick a guy up off waivers to make the cap, but that guy needs to either have a minimum $1.85mil/yr contract as a forward or $1.75mil/yr contract as a d-man. Those people aren’t dropped on waivers often, and when they are they usually aren’t good bottom 2 d-men or 4th line forwards(for the most part). Trade would be easier, but we’d have to find the right deal and matching contract(s).
It’s definitely workaroundable to keep Nino/Strome in the minors, but it’s definitely not easy. Picking up a $843k/yr Grabner like last year wouldn’t put us over the cap this year, we’d need a solidly paid waiver wire guy for that to work, and that’s usually a rarity or completely washed up player. But I do see your point.
Are you sure, Ozzy?
I mean, are you sure that the Isles have to hit $48 million for players on the NHL roster? I thought that, unlike the cap ceiling, the floor merely makes sure there are $48 million in contracts handed out, even if some of that money is locked up in players who are in the AHL.
I could be wrong. /shrugs
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Sep 18, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, my point was...
… that the rule you’re referring to only counts toward the ceiling, and not the floor. It would seem unfair to me that a team has over $48 million in contracts, but somehow gets penalized because not all of that money happens to be playing on the team at the same time. But a rule’s a rule, I guess.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Sep 19, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
No, it's $48million on the NHL roster.
I don’t know what the penalites are though for not making it, and I couldn’t find any direct penalty per day of not making it or anything. But most agree that if you go over the cap or under the floor lots of bad things can happen. Anything from fines of up to $5 million, cancellation of contracts, forfeiture of draft picks, deduction of points and/or forfeiture of game(s) determined to have been affected by the violation of the cap.
So it’s pretty obvious not abiding by the cap floor would be a huge negative for that team, and the NHL would want to make an example out of any team that crosses this line, so I can only imagine the hell it would bring to that team.
Well i think we'd all know what would happen if the Isles were in that situation.
The League would make an example of us and embarrass us as much as possible. I guess there’s still a move or two to make.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Sep 19, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Three Weeks...
so many questions:
1. Injuries… they’re gonna happen, but to who, and how long will they be out. Most of the Annually Injured Club(Hunter, Weight, Nielsen) are gone. But the team is still relatively small, and they have some tough games (BRUINS) on the schedule, and Matt Moulson at practices.
2. Bubble popping. There are probably 4 F spots open, 2 on the ice and 2 in the press box that will collect NHL salaries. With up to 10 players fighting for those spots (Martin, Gillies, Haley, Ullstrom, Nino, Strome, Kabanov, Rakhshani, McNeely and the invites). Of course, if they don’t eliminate one of the Tri-Lateral Commishion(Montoya, DiPietro, Nobakov) one of those press box passes will be used for the third wheel… or flat tire, depending on who holds the honor.
3. Deals to be done. The defense is thin at best. They do have a good young core up front. We all dread the day when we have start dealing bona fide prospects, or young developing talent… but there may be some more holes opening up, less players competing for jobs or both.
4. Seven defensemen configuratons. If they choose to take on a kid like deHaan they may want to have a little more in-game depth. We saw some of Olson playing forward in the rookie games. With such a small defense, that might be better than dressing Gillies. Cappy has some options.
This is how I see it before any news from camp breaks:
Most likely, in order of their probability to be dealt
Tavares, Moulson, Grabner, Okposo, Nielsen, Reasoner, Rolston, Comeau, Bailey, Parenteau
Probables in order of what they bring to the table + roster flexability
Ullstrom, Martin, Haley, Rakhshani, Cizikas, Gillies, Colliton, Nino, Strome, Kabanov
Let the games begin!
Who cares... John Tavares is here until 2017-18!!!
Jonathan Quick is in pratcice?!?!?!
I know you must mean him for there is no way Matt Moulson could have multiple brothers-in-law playing professional hockey
I just scored another Tuscan Dairy goal!
by Chris McNally on Sep 17, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait a minute
Jonathan Quick and Moulson are related?
Why am I always the last to hear about these things?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 17, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because you filter out white noise?
(Which, let’s face it, is all that fact has become given the amount of times it’s been uttered by broadcasters)
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Sep 18, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Broadcasters never mentioned this.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 18, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Har-de-har-har! :-)
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Sep 18, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Can Okposo skate backwards?
We may need him on D! {He has been there on the pp]
Nino automatically makes the team right now(or strome). We need his salary to be over the cap floor.
by OzzyFan on Sep 17, 2011 8:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
what if de Haan made the club instead?
wouldn’t we be over the cap floor then?
I just scored another Tuscan Dairy goal!
by Chris McNally on Sep 17, 2011 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Why are you so against Nino?
De Haan could also make it, but he’s a little further away than Nino. I happen to think both will crack the opening night roster, but it’s much easier to argue for Nino than for De Haan. Defensemen take longer, Nino is bigger and NHL-ready in terms of size, and has nothing left to prove at any level below the NHL level. Most teams give their top D prospects some time in the AHL before bringing them in; not so with highly drafted forwards. I think De Haan will force his way on, but right now, it’s most likely that they’ll pick six of: Streit, Hamonic, MacDonald, Jurcina, Eaton, Mottau, and Staios. The fact that you’d rather them rush De Haan to get over the cap floor instead of play Nino, who is more ready, is crazy. I don’t know what you have against Nino.
Dude, who is anti-Nino?
It was simply a question. I just like to look at every option as opposed to just ignorantly believing some is a lock to make the team. That was the point of this post. Is there a chance the Islanders keep de Haan instead of Nino? OFCOURSE THERE IS! Is it likely, no? But it was a question. Did you see me write a post or comment where I say “I’m anti-Nino and I don’t want him on this team” ? I didn’t think so. Actually, if you had read my post you would see I wrote:
One is if Nino is ready for the NHL. I think he is
Doesn’t sound like someone who is anti-Nino for me. If you don’t want to be open to all the possibilities and explore all options, fine, but that’s what I was here to do.
I just scored another Tuscan Dairy goal!
by Chris McNally on Sep 17, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
You said earlier that you thought Nino had more of a chance to make the team because "the Isles lack of need to rush prospects like they used to," but you want to rush De Haan to avoid having Nino on?
It just seems like you’re fishing for ways to get around not having Nino on the team. I still just don’t get your 45% for him. It’s much higher than that.
Ah yes- draft discussions and preseason roster picking discussions are my two favorite topics on LHH
During the regular season and through the summer it’s a love fest here, but around this time (and draft time) fans get all riled up and go at it. It’s great.
STOPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!
I’m, like, seriously behind! Can everyone, like, please just stop posting for a couple days…blah blah this blah blah that…how’s a guy ever supposed to keep up???
f*#%ing Islander fans never and all their excitement this year
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
by Bryan2112 on Sep 17, 2011 9:11 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
dammit, now I'm just adding to the pile!!!
never
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
I haven't posted anything in 2 weeks.
I actually gave you a head start
I just scored another Tuscan Dairy goal!
by Chris McNally on Sep 17, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, you get a rec on this one...
… because it takes lots of careful planning (or incredible luck) to put in a censored curse word within the sarcasm font. One false move and the sarcasm ends midway through the curse.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Sep 18, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
45%
The fan post itself was good but the percentages themselves kind of bugged me too, just because they seem so arbitrary and I don’t think that’s how percentages work. I could wake up tomorrow and declare I have a 25% chance of getting laid that day but in reality that’s just a made up number in my head that doesn’t account for the thousands of variables that will really determine whether I get laid. It’s the same with the roster. I know it’s simply the writer’s opinion and I respect that but there are still so many variables that will really determine whether said player amirs the roster
Gillies with a better chance than Nino?
I think Nino would have a better chance of making the roster line up than Gillies. Not because Nino would take any spot away from Gillies, but its going to be tough for Gillies to crack the fourth line with the competition around him.
All Who Oppose Grabner Shall Perish.
I don't think
Nino’s cap hit will have anything to do with him making the team. They are almost there as it is, and there doesn’t seem to be an actual penalty for being under (as there is for being over).
I like the 45%. If I had to bet today, I think he goes back to the juniors, but it’s close. You’re on the money with that.
I think he makes the team
He really has nothing to gain back in juniors, if they sent him back it would be to protect the team, not for Nino’s benefit (unless they plan on giving him time in the AHL after this year when he is eligible) I think given the 9 game stint last year and his strong WHL season he makes the team.
Yeah, Nino is offensively NHL ready without question, and likely defensively adequate(for a rookie).
There isn’t really much more he could work on down there, or he would get bored as hell offensively while working on the rest/intangibles of his game.
There were also some write ups regarding him being invisible in the last two playoff series
I think on espn insider
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Sep 18, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The same playoffs where Nino was 3rd in goalscoring for his team and 2nd in points. I'll give him a pass over what the "espn media" think/saw from him.
by OzzyFan on Sep 19, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In truth, they outsourced a lot their hockey
Like the stuff they pull/contract from the Hockey Prospectus guys.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Not sure about that
Remember Ben’s post from a couple months ago? (I’ll dig it up if you don’t) But the upshot was Nino played poorly when he wasn’t lined up next to Johansen. So there very well might be some things he has left to prove.
Hey, I’d love to see him have a big camp and make the team, but I think that’s exactly what it’s going to take. I don’t see it as him coming with a job he can only lose with a poor camp(how you guys seem to be presenting it), but rather he is in the mix for a handful of forward slots and needs to outperform the guys who have already proven they can contribute at the NHL level.
going back to that article
Nino is a power wing with a great shot who will only relish playing with a good setup centerman. I think if he plays with any of the three centers on our first three lines he will have that same opportunity. Tavares, Frans, and Bailey can all pass the puck smoothly. Nino’s job is to crash and bash. He is meant to use his body to get to the front of the net and receive passes. He is not a playmaker and so I am not worried about that aspect of his game. I want to see him be able to receive the puck at the top of the circle and either rip a shot or charge the net with the puck. I do not think he will suffer from not having RJ on his center, but will flourish with any of our centers.
by ghalbart on Sep 18, 2011 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good point
This is what I was going to say, only you said it more eloquently and with less spelling errors.
I don't remember the post, I only checked in sporadically through July and Augest
Post it if you can, because I enjoy Ben’s posts.
If the team is convinced Nino is a long way off and will ultimately need AHL seasoning before he is ready for the NHL than sending him back to Portland makes sense. If it’s an issue of physical maturity than sending him back to Portland makes sense. But if he goes back to the WHL he will dominate, given his age and previous experience. A man playing against boys. I don’t think a trip back is going make him a much better player.
Martin, Haley and Gillies
I don’t see any reason having all three of these guys on the opening day roster, nor the need to have any more than one dressed for a game outside of when we are playing the Penguins. Martin is one guy I would like see go back to Bridgeport. Yes, he brings energy, hits and fights but isn’t a polished defensive forward like other options in camp. I don’t have them in front of me but didn’t Martin have pretty poor corsi numbers last season? I’d rather see him go down to the farm and work on his overall game then see 6 minutes a game and be used as a goon. That’s what Gillies is for. And on that note with the depth we finally have and some of the young guys coming up there is no need to dress both Haley and Gillies. I mean shit, if it’s between Pandolfo and Haley I wouldn’t even blink picking Pandolfo- assuming he is healthy.
I think I would pick Martin over Haley, Gillies, or Pandolfo.
I’d start the season with the lines of:
Moulson-Tavares-Parenteau
Grabner-Nielsen-Okposo
Comeau-Bailey-Niederreiter
Martin-Reasoner-Rolston
With the option of swapping the RW’s around (Parenteau, Okposo, Niederreiter).
Martin
Is still young. And still has some upside. And still has some defensive shortcomings he will need to improve to be a good bottom six player. Don’t you think he would be better served getting more ice-tine in BP than getting 4th line minutes in uniondale?
Otherwise I like those lines and would be my best guess for how the team will look opening day.
I'm not sure- I like Martin. I think he gives the team energy; I'd say his long-term future is as a bottom six checking winger, more or less a Steve Webb who can score 15 or so goals.
But if the team sent him to Bridgeport to work on his game and played Haley in his spot, it wouldn’t be the worst thing. But I like Martin on the 4th line this season and beyond.
I doubt
Gillies will be on the roster for all but a handful of games, spending the bulk of his time at Bridgeport.
I don’t think Pandolfo is going to have much of a role beyond warm body in training camp.
I do think because of the 3 headed goalie situation one of Haley or Martin could end up in BPT. I agree if that is the case it should be Martin, as he has more upside. I also think Haley has already shown he can contribute positively at the NHL level.
Not for nothing
The crowd will be chanting Ha-ley, a lot more than “Pan-dol-fo” and that may play into it some…perhaps it shouldn’t, but it will. They still need to get asses into the seats, an Pandolfo is not that much of an upgrade (if at all) and doesn’t do the things Haley does. We could do the “talent” evaluations all day, but on the team, they are looking for guys to fill roles at various bottom six positions, and at the end of the day, You want Haley on that wall, you need Haley on that wall.
I am thinking that I would like to see Martin in BPT playing with some of the younger guys in BPT and developing some puck and D skills down there a little more. I’ll miss him from this lineup because of the hitting aspect, but it may be best for his development.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
It's not really about Haley over Pandolfo
I don’t know what kind of player Pandolfo is right now, at 38 and not having played an NHL game in over a year. If I had to choose right now I would pick Pandolfo but that is an uniformed guess, I am not there at camp. Luckilly it’s not me making the decision.
Really the point I was making was that IMO it’s a waste of roster spots to have Haley, Gillies and Martin all on the team opening day. I know Martin projects as a better rounded player as the other two but still has things to learn and is IMO better served seeing more ice-time in BP
We need those guys for Ranger games too
I think some of you here are anti-toughness. Nobody on those first 3 lines makes anybody quake in their skates and we need somebody to protect them.
Agree with Chris about Gillies being the perfect guy because you can scratch him, but I love Haley over Martin on that 4th line.
"We can't get pushed around," Haley said. "What commentators say about us, that's their job. My job is to try and limit as many people who want to take liberties with our guys as possible."
by BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Sep 18, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not "anti-toughness"
Not at all and historically on LHH I’ve been pro-enforcer. Some of my favorite players all time have been enforcers and when I played the game myself the only thing I was really ever good at was throwing my body around and getting under opponents skin. One of my best islander memories from the lad couple of years was when Martin fought Nate Thompson when Thompson first played the isles after going to TB. The respect those two guys showed each while still beating the living sh-t out of each other us what that part of the game is all about.
What I am against is giving three roster spots to guys who do pretty much the same thing and two of whom are about as one dimensional as you can get. The game is now so focused on defense that you can’t afford to dress three guys who aren’t strong for and back-checkers and can limit opponents shots on nets. I love Gillies for what he brings to the team and like the idea of having him with the big club. Martin has much more upside than Gillies or Haley so it’s a waste to use him simply as an enforcer and IMO could use the ice-time he would be afforded in BP to improve his overall game. I just see no need to dress both Haley and Gillies except in special circumstances, like against the Pens or Rags
by MatthewM11 on Sep 18, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Haley is more than an enforcer too
i agree though, I don’t see all three making the team.
"We can't get pushed around," Haley said. "What commentators say about us, that's their job. My job is to try and limit as many people who want to take liberties with our guys as possible."
by BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Sep 18, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
"You don't have to make a decision today"
I remember Bobby Valentine saying that while managing the Mets. Don’t get all wrapped up in a decision until you have to make it. Camp just started. Reasoner already left early due to a sore knee. Rakhshani has a concussion. Katic may be out for the season. You didn’t know this a week ago. A lot can change in 3 weeks. Maybe Staios comes in a looks great or McCabe is signed. Also, how will Mottau and Eaton come back from their injuries? Maybe deHaan has a great camp and pre-season.
For the most part, I do agree with Metzfan22; JPin VA and Ozzyfan. Nino makes the team and joins JT, MM, PAP, Frans, Grabs, KO; Josh & Comeau to make up the top three lines. Reasoner and Rolston on the 4th w/ probale Martin if all remains unchanged. Gillies in the press box as a healthy scratch.
On D- If deHaan doesn’t do as stated above he will start in BP and hopefully be brought up during the season like Hamonic was last year.
The wild card on D is Wishart. I think he has a chance to take Mottau’s spot. If Wishart doesn’t make the team I would rather see him in BP getting lots of ice time and Dylan Reese as the healthy scratch.
Plus how will the Nabokov situation work itself out and do they start the season with 3 goalies. To be determined.
Something to consider...
We are going to run into the same problem of finding jobs for these kids next year. IF this team makes the playoffs this year with very little addition to the roster from below, Next year, you are faced with the problem of trying to jam Nino, Strome, deHaan, Kabanov, and possibly a few other rookies on to a playoff team…which may look like a step backwards and may compromise the sliding of ELCs and cap considerations.
It may be advisable to add a couple this year and a couple next year in order to stagger the RFAs and cap hits and to limit the damage of fielding a lot of rookies at the same time…which is especially bad if we make the playoffs, then add rookies and then don’t make the playoffs.
That thinking has led me to think that a trade is a bit more possible before the end of camp.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Assuming Niño makes the team...
…I think the chances of a trade are very likely, as long as there is a good defenseman available.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Sep 18, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Still something that improves our top 4 D
I have no idea what, but honestly, if a couple of those guys look really good, they may be able to be dealt..or the guys they would replace, but I just feel like it would be more acceptable to dress a bunch of rookies this year as opposed to next year…especially if we make the playoffs this year and have to lose guys we made the playoffs with to start rookies.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Agree that Gillies should be lower
Good post, though! Gillies may make it as 13th with a strong camp, but that assumes a few other bubble guys have bad camps, I think. Perhaps Haley, Rolston, and Martin take turns as the scratch. Even Niño every once in a while, if he plays bottom-6. (Adjusting to 82 games can be difficult, so a couple games off every now and then may not be the worst thing— the first two Pens games, for instance. He can learn some things from the press box.) The fact Niño is starting on the 1st line for preseason tells me the Isles want to give him a fair shot to make the team, even if it ends up being bottom-6 minutes.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Sep 18, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions
Garth trades Bailey (got him on the cheap, so can really help a team with cap issues)
and then the lines +1 are
Moulson-Tavares-PAP (perhaps Strome for 9 games)
Grabner-Nielsen-Okposo
Rolston-Cizikas-Niederreiter
Comeau-Reasoner-Haley
Gillies
that’s probably the strongest set of 4 LWs in the league
and a very solid C core as well
Fair percentages...
… and be even more fair … I’d be curious to see if those percentages change at the end of camp.
by 19 Isle in NJ 22 on Sep 18, 2011 9:11 PM EDT reply actions
Boys vs Men
I think we really have to see how Strom and Cizikas do against men in pre-season games.
Nino had a chance last year, now we’ll see if he improved some. Just like DeHaan.
by jonny4gets on Sep 19, 2011 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Yes, although...
I hope Garth doesn’t get too hung up on any particular player’s successes or struggles in the preseason- it’s to small a sample size to make decisions one way or another, without other considerations. In other words if Strome or Kabby dominate in pre-season games it doesn’t mean they are ready for the NHL. Many factors: contract and cap considerations, physical and mental maturity of player etc need to be considered along with the player’s preseason. de Haan had great preseasons the last two years and both years Garth seemed tempted to sign him. Fortuently he considered other factors.
I am on a plane right now headed for NY (shelled out $10 for shitty inconsistent in-flight WIFI) and am hitting up a preseason game this week. Really looking forward to it, I love seeing the young guys live against NHL competition.
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
