Predicting Defenseman - Updated
by Mark D on Aug 5, 2011 7:42 PM EDT
in Roster Manoeuvres in the Dark
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As tough as it is to predict how Goalies will do between being drafted and actually making the NHL, defenseman can be even tougher. When Nicklas Lidstrom was selected in the 3rd round in 1989 who would have predicted he would win the Norris Trophy Seven times. Calgary and Chicago both drafted defenseman in the 3rd round who would never make the NHL. At 48th Overall Chicago picked Bob Kellog, who never made it beyond two IHL stints. At 50th Overall Calgary picked Veli-Pekka Kautonen who had a decent career in Liiga but never came to the states.
When drafting defenseman, it's just as much of a wild card. Is there any explanation for why Matieu Biron (21st Overall in 98) doesn't make it but Andrew MacDonald (160th Overall in 2006) looks like a legitimate top 4 defender. The Islanders last season are a pretty good example of defenseman coming from everywhere. Mark Eaton entered the league as an undrafted FA, same as Jack Hillen. Radek Martinek and Milan Jurcina were 8th round picks, Mike Mottau and Dylan Reese were 7th round picks, Bruno Gervais a 6th rounder. You can never tell where a defenseman will bloom from.
So I thought I'd grab two random defenseman from the Islanders history to see how the LHH readers out there would pick...
Up first is Player A. His first season was at 20 years old on a struggling Islanders team after playing limited time in the AHL.He was thrown pretty much into the fire and tended to be partnered with another defenseman with limited NHL experience.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PIM | +/- | |
| Y1 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 1 |
| Y2 | 59 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 83 | -8 |
| Y3 | 65 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 57 | -27 |
| Y4 | 82 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 157 | -27 |
In Y2 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, -4, -6, -8, -14, -16, -18 and -19.
In Y3 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, -4, -5, -9, -10, -11, -13 and -15
In Y4 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, +5, -4, -5, -12, -18 and -22
Player B spent a bit more time in the minors and started his career with another young defenseman. The Islanders team during his time mostly struggled. For his first NHL season he was 20 years old.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PIM | +/- | |
| Y1 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Y2 | 51 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 28 | -10 |
| Y3 | 60 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 34 | -5 |
| Y4 | 69 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 33 | -15 |
| Y5 | 71 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 31 | -15 |
| Y6 | 53 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 30 | -14 |
In Y2 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, +19, +14, +13, +6, +5, -1, -3 and -10
In Y3 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, +6, -1, -6, -8, -9, -14 and -17
In Y4 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, +6, -9, -16, -17, -19, -20 and -34
In Y5 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, +5, +1, -3, -3, -5 and -18
In Y6 Defenseman who played most of the season with the team finished with the following +/-, +9, +5, +4, -2, -4, -5, -5, -12, -12 and -18
Sorry, no advance stats just because they didn't exist for most of these guys career. So now you are given a choice between Player A and Player B. Which player would you keep around?
I'll update this in 24 hours with who each player is. I ask if you figure it out who each player is, keep it to yourself. Good luck to the budding GM's out there!
Since I won't be around later tonight, and nearly 200 votes is plenty, I'll let you guys know who each player is. Player A is Zdeno Chara. That's why I couldn't give away his height, there aren't a lot of 6'10 defenseman out there who have played for the Islanders. Player B is Bruno Gervais. One day I was looking at their stats and found it interesting that they had somewhat similar early career stats. Obviously Bruno doesn't have the same upside because of his size or the round he was drafted in. It was just some food for thought, and thanks to everyone who played along in the comments and didn't reveal names.
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I chose Player B because he didn't have severe penalty issue.
But really these stats are essentially useless without context. (And I don’t just mean advanced stats, but i mean the comparative numbers of fellow teammates such as D Men in their +/-s)
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
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Ditto. With the lack of other information, I have to take the guy with more offense and less penalty issues.
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by George E. Ays on Aug 5, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Good Idea
I’ll add the average +/- of defenseman on the team
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
updated
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
The problem for me with player B is stagnation, looks like he hit his ceiling as an offensive defenseman. Not that player A shows that much progress either but more games played and the lack of progress in +/- could easily be from facing stiffer competition (or dumb luck). But knowing who both players are is hard to discard when making the choice as well.
B
i look at that -27 for player A and that would be cause to drop him… im wondering if player A was Chara now lol That is why i’m no GM lol
I would like to know height and weight
As I like my d-men big. But I voted “A” just because I think “B” looks better on paper, and Web likes to mislead us. But if you tell us “A” is 6’9" that might change a few minds.
This IS the year.
lol
Those stats alone make it hard to make a good decision.i figured out who both are. But ill be nice and let the game continue lol
Yeah, I had to go and look too.
But clearly these bread and butter stats don’t tell the story. Although they may be a big part of player "B"s career.
This IS the year.
by since70too on Aug 5, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Come on I dyin' here
For someone to pick up on “bread and butter” being “a big part of player B’s career”. I guess It’s not as clever as I had hoped. Is it wrong to laugh at your own jokes?
This IS the year.
by since70too on Aug 5, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unfortunately there’s a reason I can’t give Height/Weight. But let’s just say Player A is bigger and a bit slower, Player B is smaller and faster.
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Well that's why your example fails.
It’s not exactly a secret that for this type of comparison, you need to know more than just htese basic #s. This doesn’t make any point whatsoever.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
I thought it was something interesting to try. I admit that there’s issues with it.
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
As people have already guessed who Player A is, I'd point out that I agree - using pure stats without the size of the player is a bit of an error.
And while -27 was the worst on that player’s team, the other D men were at -22, -20, -18, and -12.
The team had massive goaltending issues.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
agree
both players suffered through goaltending issues.
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Just looked at who Player 2 was.
Two things:
1. Player 2 turned 21 during the season so was older than Player 1.
2. No one ever had any high hopes for Player 2, while Player 1 due to size had natural high potential people hoped for.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
HockeyDB is odd with the player ages. I need to stop using them.
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Yeah I don't think player "A" was moved
Because anyone gave up on him. But still makes the G.M. look “DUMB”
This IS the year.
Talking defensemen development
Hamonic was our third pick of the second round in 2008. Of the two players chosen before him in round 2, Trivino will likely never play in the NHL and I’m not much higher on Ness.
This IS the year.
Well Hamonic blew both these guys out of the water in his age 20 season.
And while he is a completely different type of player (due to size) than Player A, his potential has been thought of as closer to that than Player Bs (well by far)
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
by garik16 on Aug 5, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like to compare this Islanders team to the Dynasty
For me, Hamonic is our Dave Langevin. Dave was underrated due to the stars around him but had one hell of a career.
This IS the year.
Hamonic is Better Than Langevin
Langevin, whose nickname was “Bam Bam”, was a stay at home defenseman with almost no offense at all. He never scored more than 4 goals or 21 points in a season. At age 20, Hamonic has already topped that with last season’s 5-21-26. Hamonic has a much better shot, and is a better skater than Langevin, who suffered from multiple knee injuries.
The problems with memory!
I was always a big fan of Langevin during the Dynasty years. When I looked a his career stats after making this post, I was shocked how little offense he had, and how short his tenure here was. But 25-30 years is a long time, I’ll plead “old timers”.
This IS the year.
Langevin was a Real Warrior
You’re absolutely right on the fact that he did not have a long career. His knees were so bad that near the end of his career he had no cartilage and he was dealing with bone scraping against bone. You have to wonder if his career would have been prolonged with the more modern surgical techniques of today.
He had
some shoulder issues too, no? I seem to remember him separating it a few times toward the end of his time with the Isles.
I think Hamonic comps better with Tomas Jonsson
Accounting for the differences in the relative strength of the team and the goal-scoring environment, Hamonic’s and Jonsson’s rookie years are very similar. As an added bonus, Hamonic is not as likely to spend the last ten years of his career with Leksands IF.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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Hmm
I wouldn’t have thought to compare them. I always thought of Jonsonn as a smallish, good skating defenseman who wasn’t particularly physical. But I could be remembering wrong.
Also, anyone know how he racked up all those PIMs in his last full season with the Isles? Did he have a misconduct or two? Because it is so out of line with all his other seasons.
He was more of an offensive guy than a two-way
You’re right about their roles being different. If all goes well, Hamonic will be a better hitter and more physical than Jonsson was. For the time he played, Jonsson was (I think) more average-sized than smallish. Now he’d be a pixie. I was thinking more in terms of their production and making immediate impact, rather than their roles.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
short careers for physical players who play a lot of playoff hockey is common
game is much more physical in playoffs, generally as you get deeper…ken morrow was another player like this
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 8, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Lindstrom
I know it is just a typo, but I bring it up because I saw the same typo on a hockey site recently, and I thought I heard it pronounced that way at this year’s award show. I know Isles have had a couple Lind-players (Lindgren is one), but why the league-wide misspelling of one of the top 10 players of all-time? Is it just a conspiracy to make me feel paranoid? (I look it up every time, just to be sure.) There are typos when I type, so I am not picking on anyone; I am just wondering about the reoccurrence.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Aug 5, 2011 10:48 PM EDT reply actions
Fixed it
I’ll willingly admit I do not follow the West at all. The weird thing was that I was staring at his wiki page and hockeydb page when writing that and still messed it up.
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
I know who A is (No, I won't say) but I'm having trouble finding player B.
I went with A the minute I saw the stats and knew who it was, but B’s a puzzle.
Can’t find a player who’s numbers line up from periods that you described.
Jeff Carter to Columbus? Wait, I've seen this one before, it was called Shanahan to Hartford. Advice? Don't buy a Carter jersey.
I think
A lot of people have figured out who Player A is, as he’s made a huge comeback since earlier in the poll. B is a more recent Islander that has left the team.
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Im the total opposite
I know who Player B is but not Player A. And it doesnt matter who Player A is bc I would choose close to anyone over Player B
I went to an Islanders Power Play and all I got was this broken stick
by Chris McNally on Aug 6, 2011 4:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Player A's Y4 makes him look like a fit for Capuano's fun-time
“Screw this! Player A, get your ass out there! Skate into some guys. With your fists.”
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Aug 6, 2011 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
He'd do well in that roll
But I’m not sure we would want him spending much time in the penalty box.
This IS the year.
Hmmm.
Well that’s why your example fails. It’s not exactly a secret that for this type of comparison, you need to know more than just htese basic #s. This doesn’t make any point whatsoever.’ – by garik16
I thought it was something interesting to try. I admit that there’s issues with it. -by WebBard
I obsess more on wanting a great corps of defenseman than anyone I know. I think unless you get one of the best 2 or 3 goaltenders in the world, assembling the most versatile and deep D-corps should absolutely, positively, and certainly be THE first priority. Not being someone who is swayed by sets of numbers and stats alone to begin with, I agree with garik16 about how much this really means, even though I’m not sure he’s wants a more complete picture or just more numbers.
On the other hand, I’m gonna check out who A & B are because I’m curious, but I also think that we all really need the season to hurry up and get here.
And by the way, ...
according to Newsday, it’s just possible the exchange a few of us had the other day about the poignancy and poetic justice there would be in a new arena just on the Suffolk side of the county line, right in view of everyone in Nassau who ran the team off, might have been more than just wishful thinking.
No Offense to the Suffolk Folks, But I Think Going Further East Would Be a Major Mistake
My guess is that it would shrink the ticket base.
by rmblifn on Aug 6, 2011 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure about that.
I believe Suffolk has a higher population than Nassau, and obviously that alone doesn’t mean much, but is there really much difference if the arena was say in Bethpage, or somwhere else right along the border with Nassau?
It would be interesting to see the demographics of Islanders crowds, ie. percentages from Nassau, Suffolk, Queens etc., but even that wouldn’t necessarily translate to any certainties, I don’t think. Noone knew for sure what kind of draw the team was going to be in 1972 either.
Suffolk is larger in both population and area
So the population is more spread out.
Though I’m somewhat tickled by the idea of an arena 100 yards on the Suffolk side of the border, with a giant billboard facing Nassau with Nelson Muntz in an Islanders jersey. HAW-haw!
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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by mikb on Aug 6, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah this is why I want them to find room on the 110 corridor
Plus you have a huge corporate presence there. They also wanted to build a light rail along 110 which could give us our public transportation option. There is also some industrial area that can be grabbed west of Pinelawn along the LIRR main-line. It’s no more than ten miles east so it really isn’t a big difference. I still like Willets Point better but Suffolk can be workable.
No Sleep 'til....
Updated the Article
Player A was Zdeno Chara
Player B was Bruno Gervais
For some reason I can’t close the poll, but when I posted it the results were 88 to 111
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
by Mark D on Aug 6, 2011 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I knew Player A was Chara
but was unsure of player B….Chara’s size and upside would have sold me.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 6, 2011 9:52 PM EDT reply actions
Gervais looked very promising one season, though
… From what I remember.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Aug 7, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
