Does Mikkel Boedker Set the Market for Josh Bailey's Contract?
by Dominik on Aug 19, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
in Roster Manoeuvres in the Dark
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The short answer is "no," because Josh Bailey is not a Dane, and thus lacks the Frans appeal that glows around Mikkel Boedker's Danish bad self.
The more sincere, less LHH-mythology answer is ... well let's do the Player A vs. Player B thing:
| Age | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | TOI | +/- | Sh% | |
| Player A | 21 | 126 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 0.36 | 13:30 | +7 | 9.9 |
| Player B | 21 | 211 | 34 | 54 | 88 | 0.42 | 16:10 | -22 | 11.8 |
Islanders fans know who Player B is based on those 211 games played. Bailey was put in the NHL from the get go -- though a training camp injury in 2008 inadvertently helped -- and he's racked up games ever since, only doing a cursory stint in the AHL this past season right before he'd have required waivers to do so.
Ah, but Boedker (Player A) was also thrust into the NHL in 2008-09, logging 78 games the same year he was selected one spot before Bailey in the 2008 draft. Thanks to that training camp injury, Bailey finished his rookie season with 8 fewer games played.
What happened after that might confuse you if you've been wishing Bailey could have spent time in the AHL before last season. But the rule is slightly different for imports to CHL juniors. The Coyotes were free to demote the Danish-born Boedker to their AHL affiliate, and did so both in 2009-10 and 2010-11. He logged only 14 NHL games his sophomore year and split last season between San Antonio -- they who graciously begat El Cubano Montoya -- and Phoenix.
Toss plus/minus aside (the Coyotes have been a better team with better goaltending over this time*), and nothing really flatters Boedker in this comparison.
Even if you argue Boedker has been brought along "right" by getting so much AHL time after his rookie season, he simply hasn't played as much -- both in total games and TOI per game -- hasn't scored as much, and hasn't even faced as tough competition as Bailey. (The youngster I'd covet on the Coyotes is Martin Hanzal, who does tackle heavy-lifting. Alright, Hanzal's 24, so not exactly "young" like these other pups.)
*Just last season, the Isles conceded 32 shots per game vs. the Coyotes 32.6. The Coyotes GAA was 2.68, the Islanders 3.15.
Boedker's new annual cap hit is $1.1 million on a two-year deal that makes him arbitration-eligible next time around, barring changes to the CBA. (CBA Trivia: Note also that this contract represents a decline in cap hit, but a raise in actual salary, than Boedker's entry level deal. Ah, the twists and turns of the ELC system. Bailey's next deal may see a similar contrast.) Last month when discussing Bailey and Blake Comeau, we noted that 2007 draftee Brandon Sutter singed his second deal at $2.2 million per, though that was on a three-year deal which means he gave up at least one arbitration-eligible year.
Bailey's long-term value is still a question mark, which is perhaps one reason he's not yet agreed to terms on his extension. But one thing you can say is the Islanders selected the currently better NHL player at #9 in 2008 than the Coyotes did at #8.
And that means you can expect Bailey's deal for this season (and next?) to be a little richer.
* * *
Coda: It does not escape our notice that Boedker's deal pays him twice Frans Nielsen's salary. Once again: What a contract that was.
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Guaranteed (sort of) Contracts
It does not escape our notice that Boedker’s deal pays him twice Frans Nielsen’s salary. Once again: What a contract that was.
Getting sort of off topic, since I think the Bailey thing will sort itself out, but this is probably my biggest concern at the moment.
Obviously, no one knew what we’d have in Frans Nielsen when he signed that rock bottom 4 year deal in 2008. Unlike the NFL, where players are “free” (well sort of, ask Carson Palmer right now) to hold out if they don’t like their deal, there are very few NHL holdouts. Of course, in the NFL, you get cut for little to no reason as well and get no money.
Nielen is going to command premium dollars next year and I don’t want to see him getting near the trade deadline without a solid contract extension.
STOP effin' messin' with my FnGO!!
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Aug 19, 2011 7:46 AM EDT reply actions
On this
What do we think it would take to land him? He’s not the perfect comparison, but I’d say Joel Ward is probably in a similar player pool. He just got 4 years/$12 million. I’d say two things on this. Frans is a better player. Ward had the classic good playoffs contract boost. Defensive forwards in particular seem to get more notoriety/money off a good playoff run than anyone else.
So is $3 million per about what we could expect him to get? If that were all it would take, I’d think he’d have been locked up months ago (with the other guys who signed for roughly that much). I’m guessing he might be looking for either more money or more years than Garth wants to commit right now. The problem is I don’t see the price coming down once he hits UFA status, and like everybody else I’d rather he was locked up well before this is an issue.
So Garth, just pay the damn man!
by afrosupreme on Aug 19, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
You can’t sign someone until after January
"Maybe (Frans) should concentrate more on FO rather than the thugging aspect of his game." - AP77
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Ahhh right
keep forgetting that even though it’s been mentioned a good hundred times or so.
by afrosupreme on Aug 19, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Stupid CBA
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Actually, that's not quite right
If you are on a one-year contract (so Moulson and PAP last winter), you can’t sign an extension until Jan. 1.
If you are on a multi-year contract (so Nielsen now), you can’t sign an extension until the final season of that contract, which begins on July 1.
50.5 (f) (iv) Page 215: A Player who is party to a one-year SPC may not enter into an “extension” of such SPC prior to January 1 of the League Year covered by such SPC.
Stupid CBA.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
You wonder
if the GMs even have a handle on this. This could be your niche consulting job. NHL CBA expert.
by afrosupreme on Aug 19, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh man
I think they all have their own capologist now. Was interesting hearing Meehan say most negotiations include a GM and a cap guy now.
When i spoke to Snow about Ridderwall a couple of years ago and the confusion with the CBA and the Sweden transfer agreements, I whined about the CBA complexity and he basically nodded in agreement. “It’s hard to keep straight.”
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Nielen is going to command premium dollars next year and I don’t want to see him getting near the trade deadline without a solid contract extension.
Nielsen was also willing to sign anything as long as it wasn’t a two way deal, so the Isles would have to give him a chance on the NHL level. This is just my opinion, but I think he’s a loyal guy. I think he understands that the Islanders gave him a real chance when other teams might not have due to his size, or might have given up on him cause he wasn’t scoring a lot (and we know there’s lots of Isles fans who wanted him gone cause he couldn’t put up the points).
I think he might be gotten for 2 Million a year. You figure that he would be getting the complete value of his last contract in a single year pretty much. Plus it would basically be a 4x raise.
The interesting negotiations might be when Andy Mac comes up. If he had one more year of ELC remaining (meaning negotiating this year instead of last) it would have meant a world of difference in his contract.
"Maybe (Frans) should concentrate more on FO rather than the thugging aspect of his game." - AP77
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
I think it has to be more
I agree he’s probably a loyal and invested-in-the-team guy, but his linemates are getting ~$3 million on RFA deals, and Moulson is getting above $3 million.
Of course Moulson has the 30-goal thing going for him, which is sexy, but I think they’re going to have to step up with at least $3.5 million and possibly more.
The thing that scares me is with his slight frame this right now might be his “prime.” He’s rebounded well from any injuries he’s had, but with that slighter frame you never know when the moment has arrived where a nagging injury takes a step away.
That said, give the man his money and don’t dare pawn him off as a rental!
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I guess it’ll be interesting to see. Moulson and Grabs are both coming off 30 goal years, while Okposo is getting 1 mill this year, 2 mill next and 3 mill the following year.
Hunter’s deal was 5 years, 2 mill and he signed it following a 41 point year.
Also did you know that Hunter’s buyout is spread over 4 years?
"Maybe (Frans) should concentrate more on FO rather than the thugging aspect of his game." - AP77
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Also did you know that Hunter’s buyout is spread over 4 years?
Isn’t it always two times the number of years left on the contract?
by afrosupreme on Aug 19, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
yea, I blanked on it when I was looking at it. I almost would have been willing to let him play this season and try dealing him for a pick if I was the Devils. Or buying him out after the season. Of course it doesn’t matter much cause the hit is less then 700K
"Maybe (Frans) should concentrate more on FO rather than the thugging aspect of his game." - AP77
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Yeah, the goal total might be where they argue in negotiations
On Hunter, he had two years left on his contract, right — and Rolston just one? The buyout is usually double the length of the remainder.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
So, if we buy out DP,
what millennium does that cap hit end in?
Yea
I know Moulson and Grabner have the 30 goal thing going for them, but you’d have to think the Isles recognize that a) Frans is at least as important as they are to the team and b) they’ve gotten incredible production from him for next to nothing.
If KO is 2.8 per, that would seem like an absolute minimum. I’d think though with the knowledge he could probably land 3+ on the open market, his UFA status, being older than the other guys, etc., he probably comes in between 3 and 4 million. You’re probably right that it’s going to take 3.5+, although I could see it maybe being a touch less if they make it 5 years or more.
by afrosupreme on Aug 19, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
That's true
You could go long on him and make him quite comfortable. He’s obviously been open to that in the past.
I just marvel at the Nielsen and MacDonald contracts. That was some foresight.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Dumb luck. Worst case even if they flamed out, at that low of a salary someone would always be willing to give them a second chance. I mean Snow got something for Bruno.
"Maybe (Frans) should concentrate more on FO rather than the thugging aspect of his game." - AP77
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Yea
I mean I’m sure they were in part out of necessity, as in they needed to have some guys under some stable contracts. But they sure picked the right guys. Could have been Bergenheim and Bruno.
by afrosupreme on Aug 19, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
That's what I was thinking
The only other guy (other than Special Case RDP) they’ve gone long with was Trent Hunter. To me Nielsen and AMac represented lessons learned, deals they did not extend to just any old on-the-cusp prospect.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
This would be a really interesting debate
Who has been the more valuable player to the Isles over the last two years, Moulson or Nielsen?
Who is more likely to be more important over the NEXT two-three years.
Much as I loves me some Mo’, I gotsta go with Frans on both counts.
Frans will attract 12-15 mil over four years and be worth every penny.
STOP effin' messin' with my FnGO!!
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Aug 19, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nielsen
can we please sign him to an extension yesterday? His salary is ridculous
on Bailey – am not assuming he’s going to be part of this team going forward
Lucky
We were lucky that Nielsen turned out to be such a steal and has a small cap hit. I would feel a lot better if he had a long term contract.
Bailey was a cap hit of 1.725 million last season. That is a lot for someone who has been inconsistent. What is the right spot for him short and long term for him contractually? I can see why he hasn’t been signed. His agent may be pointing to the equal or lesser players getting nice contracts but Snow saying Bailey hasn’t delivered yet.
Looks to me like Bailey will be a piece of a trade.
Bailey was a cap hit of 1.725 million last season
remember, a lot of that is Bonuses due to it being an ELC.
"Maybe (Frans) should concentrate more on FO rather than the thugging aspect of his game." - AP77
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Just to expand on this and what WebBard said
Bailey’s salary is $875,000. We view players in cap hits, but for ELC guys the actual salary is totally different. So he’s looking at a raise from $875,000 (plus his ~$260,00 original signing bonus), not a raise from $1.725.
Similarly, Shea Weber’s arbitration award isn’t based on the average cap hit of his peers/comparables, it’s based on the actual salary for next year of his peers, which is why it was placed roughly in between Seabrook and Keith.
This CBA could not be more annoyingly complex.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Ummmmm
This CBA could not be more annoyingly complex.
Yes, it could. Trust me. Be thankful it’s not.
STOP effin' messin' with my FnGO!!
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Aug 19, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh
True. Although I will stop at being thankful.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Bailey going forward
Josh Bailey is a versatile asset. He has played with many different line combinations and, more often than not, with 3rd and 4th liners who barely belong in the NHL. Who does the coach put out on the ice at the end when the game is on the line? Frans, AMac, Hamonic, and Bailey.
by Bryan's Pop on Aug 19, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Comeau holds the key...
…to negotiating Bailey’s deal.
Comeau has been given a min raise until he proved he was an above replacement level. Comeau was a second rounder so the numbers were less. And you could say that Boedker works for this as well, because it looks like he would be getting the min raise for the 8th pick (875 + (.33*bonus) * .10).
Bailey should get ~$1.1 unless the Islanders want to use him as a CBA mule to get to the floor. Anything over $1.5 would be an overpayment this year. If I was Josh I’d want to sign the 1 year deal, and possibly negotiate longer term after better years in 2011-2 or 2012-3.
They shouldn’t need any loose floorboards(Rolston) in the CAP FLOOR to hide money next year, as Tavares and Nielsen will probably be getting good sized raises… and there will likely be one more first round cap hit (Strome) on the books.
Lighthouse Hockey: Home of the "STROME-BOLI"!
Thanks for voting "YES" on Aug 1st... just not enough of you!!!
"CBA mule"
Nice.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Money Launderer...
… didn’t quite fit like it did with Dougy. I actually liked the “loose floorboard” comment a little better… but you know the rule… “you betta check yourself before you rec yourself”
Lighthouse Hockey: Home of the "STROME-BOLI"!
Thanks for voting "YES" on Aug 1st... just not enough of you!!!
I liked loose floorboard as well
But I didn’t want to go overboard.
Something about the visual, the pragmatic aesthetic of the mule. “Don’t take this extra money as a sign we actually think you deserve it.”
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
The ufortunate reality is
that Bailey, for reasons I place squarely at Snow’s feet, not shown he is an above average player at the NHL level. Once he EARNS a big salary increase, he should get it, but not before.
STOP effin' messin' with my FnGO!!
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Aug 19, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
One more OT CBA issue
Chris Drury retired today. His Contract buyout apparently means a $3.75 million Cap Hit for the Rags. Does his retirement get them off the hook for this?
STOP effin' messin' with my FnGO!!
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Aug 19, 2011 2:04 PM EDT reply actions
They cannot have anyhting to do with one another. The way I thought about it: Imagine if Yashin retired tomorrow- would that affect our teams buyout? Of course not. After a player is bought out he is an UFA, he can do anything- play for another team,another league, retire, whatever.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Aug 19, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I was hoping this was so.
If Sather had skated out from under that horrible contract, I would have freaked.
STOP effin' messin' with my FnGO!!
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Aug 19, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bob Gainey wasn't avaiable to save him on this one
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Tell me about it, I would hate it too.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Aug 20, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Still have no idea why Bailey hasn't signed yet.
You have to think Garth offered him more then 1 option. Probably like: 1yr deal@1.3-1.5mil/yr, 2yrs@1.3mil/yr, and 3yrs@1.1mil/yr. I just can’t see this being Garth’s fault. I don’t know if Bailey wants more money or more years, but he’s the one who has to be making this contract negotiation thing take this long. And he really doesn’t have any case to go against low or short year offers, he’s a sub-par 3rd liner right now. If I were him, I’d take the 1yr contract and go from there, what the hell is he doing?
True
Bailey needs the Islanders more than the Isles need Bailey this season.
If he holds out, Isles still have 3 good centers. They can easily trade for a 4th line center.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Aug 19, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
On Nielsen, I think he doesn't get more then ~$3mil/yr. I'd say his best "in-team" comparison is Moulson.
I hope we resign asap when possible. Maybe with a hometown discount he goes for $2mil/yr, but I’m expecting $2.5mil/yr for 3-4yrs.
I think he gets $4 mil on the open market
We aren’t the only ones who know he’s been playing close to Selke-quality defensively the past couple seasons and helped Grabner to 25 goals in half a season.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Aug 19, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
You brought up an intersting argument. I'm not sure how or who I could compare him with on the open market.
I’d guess Joel Ward for recent players(defensive + offensive overall comparison wise because he faced tougher competition and played on a weaker offensive team), and even he “only” fetched $3mil/yr with a big playoffs performance. I’d wanna delve deeper into looking at that though.
back to boedker
it is easy to see that boedker is getting good bang for minimal nhl production. However he was usually on the fourth line and most of his time on the ice has been as a true rookie. Id love to see him race grabner in the fastest skater competition, he has to be the fastest nhler people dont know about
by dougweight4coach on Aug 20, 2011 10:53 PM EDT reply actions
I just hope Bailey has a break out year:
So no matter what he’s paid, we’ll have another “FRANS” contract on our hands.
GO JOSH.
In loving memory;Dad thanks for making us Islanders fans, ACC 1918-2011
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