Poll & Debate: The 2013-14 Islanders, Two Key Players from Cup Contention?
Thought this might be fun theory/discussion for this time of year. The Islanders system may be two key players shy of contention, a number one defenseman and a big physical right-winger. The plan calls for 11 top-9 forwards (four must be centers) for depth and injuries plus line change combinations for all reasons, five top four defensemen plus depth, and a number one goalie plus depth.
To simplify the process, the analysis has been broken into three sections: Forwards, Defensemen and Goalies. Of course, it requires the patience to allow prospects to develop and depends on depth to cover “busts” as not all prospects will pan-out.
Forwards
Isles need ten out of the fifteen players listed below to pan-out as top 9 forwards:
M. Moulson - J. Tavares - R. Strome
M. Grabner - F. Nielson - K. Okposo
N. Niederriter - B. Nelson - K Kabanov
A. Lee - J. Sundstrom - * See i) below, player not in system
B. Comeau - J. Bailey - R. Rakhshani
K. Petrov
In addition, Isles need:
i) To draft one big, physical right shooting right wing who can fight, and skate and play with the stars.
ii) Need one of Nielson, Bailey, Nelson, Lee or Sundstrom to emerge as a 2nd line center (Strome excluded as he will be playing with JT and shifting from center to right wing).
*Note: At most six are now top 9 forwards (although not necessarily the prospect(s)/players favoured), leaving need for a minimum of four out of the remaining ten prospects to pan-out, plus the player identified above under i) currently not in system.
4th liners:
Need one top 12 forward plus a 13th and 14th forward (all centers listed can play left-wing):
M. Martin – C. Cizikas
J. DiBenedetto – D. Ullstrom
Theoret - C. Trivino
*Note: J. Sundstrom, B. Nelson and A. Lee would have the size and speed for 4th line if they did not make team as top nine forwards.
Defensemen
Need five top four defensemen from the list below.
# one (see a) below – T. Hamonic
M. Donovan - S. Mayfield
A. MacDononald (A. Macdonald can play either left or right side)
T. Wishart
C. De Haan
A. Pedan
a) Islanders need an all around number one defenseman who can skate and play physical, currently not in system
b) Two Defensemen are proven in A. MacDonald and T. Hamonic
c) Ideally, Islanders need S. Mayfield and one of T. Wishart, M. Donovan and C. De Haan to pan-out (I prefer Donovan’s game)
d) The sixth, seventh and eighth defensemen will come from depth, free agency or reasonably cheap via trade.
Depth Defensemen:
*Note: A Pedan has the size and speed to be a 3rd pairing D if he does not a pan-out as a top five defensemen.
**Note: R. Russo and A. Klementyev may pan-out as right bottom 3rd pairing or depth defensemen.
Goalies
Need one of the following four goalies to be a bonafide # one:
A. Montoya
K. Poulin
M. Koskinen
A. Nilsson.
*Note: Backup goalie acquired through depth or reasonably cheap via trade or free agency given league wide depth.
Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.
46 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Everyone always leaves Cody Rosen off their lists
wtf
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Aug 12, 2011 7:02 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Rosen has a slight better chance than I @ making the show
and that is only b/c i suck in net so bad
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey!
He looked alright in that prospect game! He really did!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Aug 12, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
lol
yeah i agree. watched the feed twice, was surprised.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Stealing my signature line as a topic for a fan post is frowned upon
Kidding of course.
The unfortunate part is this has been the story for the past two years (maybe not contender, but playoffs) and as it stands now, doesnt look like it will be addressed.
I don’t think the answer is outside of the stystem though and the things we are looking for, well, a lot of teams are missing that. I just can’t wait to see how the season starts to pan out. I would love to be able to say, “hey, turns out we didn’t need anything”…which I feel is a possibility.
But even if we don’t need anything, we will still be unhappy I’m sure because if we did have those two things, we could have been EVEN BETTER. Hey, we’re fans, we want the absolute best right?
I expect some guys to emerge as the season goes on that fulfill those roles to a degree and shift the balance of need around. In a perfect world, if Niño or Martin turn into 30g guys who bang and Haminic is a bona fide #2, then it’s just a matter of filling in with the right role players toward the bottom, which will be much easier. I think that is why snow will wait it out.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Aug 12, 2011 8:08 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
good points
all teams have holes…i tihnk with NHL parity, any team that is top 10 is a contender for the cup.
when i look at the depth, especially players and prospects under 25, it looks like the odds are very much in our favour that we will have a very good team in a few years. i think we can fairly look at players game\style of play, and project what we think the system is missing needs. I really like that we are adding depth at every position and role…for me, I am not high on players playing the off-wing unless the are offensive wingers and can be adequate in the defensive zone off the backhand.
I do think we lack a right wing like Bobby Nystrom, Scott Hartnell even…and an elite number one D would really take this group places in a few years. Out of our current D, Mayfield is the one whose ceiling is that player, but that is a lot of pressure and he most likely ends up peaking as second or third pairing but who knows…of course the team will continue to draft best player available according to team defining philosophy as to what that means…and, when team is in top 1/3 of league and arena situation is clearer it will be easier to sign ufa’s…if we only need one or two, that is all of these over paid types i would want to need…i think it puts us in very good territory…
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Missing Link
What is missing from the team are a few smart veterans to help the boys manage themselves during a playoff run. As much as I like our players and their potential the playoffs are a different animal. It took years for the Dynasty Islanders to learn how to win during the playoffs. They gained their missing link by acquiring Butch Goring. I think the current team will need to add a couple of players to the roster to be successful playoff-wise.
Well Reasoner and Rolston are a good start
No Sleep 'til....
Lol. Butchie really is the missing link
Neanderthal to Butchie to Homo Sapien
Sorry could not resist
by Torch7 on Aug 12, 2011 7:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Juggling lInes will be a lot of fun
We have a lot of players to move around to find their sweet spot in the lineup. I can see the following:
Moulson – Tavares – Nino/Petrov
Nino – Strome – Kabanov
Grabs – Frans – KO
Lee – Sundstrom/Czikas – Nelson
We need to use Comeau/Bailey and a pick to sign a Chris Stewart type player.
Ulstrom/Czikas/Haley on the bench
CDH – Hamonic
Amac – Mayfield
Donovan – Pedan
The boys on the right hand side can and will drop the gloves.
Would this roster meet the Cap Floor?
I know a few guys like Tavares and Nielsen and Hamonic will be due nice raises between now and then, and Strome will likely have a nice contract, but the team is barely at the floor now even with anchors balloons like Rolston and the buyouts.
I’m not familiar enough with the players to even hazard a guess at future salaries, but looking at all the open roster space for 2013-14 on capgeek, even if the floor didn’t raise a single dollar there’s a lot of salary that needs to be handed out. Seems to me there would have to be some combination of overpaying RFAs (or at least not finagling “friendly” cap hits on deals) and bringing in some UFAs.
They still have an RFA contract
To work out with Bailey, and then there are rookies that may make the team. Also, there could be a trade or something before then. But it is close.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Aug 12, 2011 4:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i see the CBA as having so many loopholes
i don’t consider the “cap floor” ever an issue…you can always sign players for imaginary money that will realistically never be collected on….hey Bruno, if you score 50 goals i’ll give you a 10 mil bonus….an exaggeration but still
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
like your D Magus
If Mayfield and Pedan panout, added to Amac and Hamonic, I’d be happy with one of De Haan or Donovan, but I prefer Donovan’s game. I prefer to have two of my top six positional D and four physical, so in my thinking, one of CDH, Amac or Donovan would be odd man out. It would be a great group to add around a number one D. Until then, adding depth leads to options and helps the odds of replacing a “bust” with a surprise or “sleeper”.
I think securing a number one D is the last of the difficult acquistions Isles will have to accomplish, but beginning this season, priority number one has to be reducing goals against.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 13, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Juggling lines...I love the fact that so many of the prospects players can play more than one position
my prokected top 11 mixed another way plus Casey:
Moulson – JT – KO
Grabner – Neilson – Sundstrom
Nino – Strome – Kabanov
Lee – Nelson – Bobby Nystrom
Cizikas
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 13, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the problem
Is that there are so many free agents for the Isles heading into this next offseason. It’ll be some tough/interesting choices.
"Since when did The Onion start doing hockey stories?" - Random Puck Daddy Comment
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Also: Free agents overall
It’s just so wide open, for many reasons:
- which unknown free agents will flee
- which prospects will turn up Nielsen, and which will turn up Nilsson
- which unknown additions will turn up Moulson
I like the long-term planning aspect here, but I think it ultimately comes down to drafting well, signing well, and hoping you don’t lose 600 games worth of guys.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
this year was too
Grabner, Moulson, Okposo, Comeau, Pap, Bailey…but yeah, it will be interesting
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
My two cents
We need a pure scorer to compliment Tavares. I love Moulson and Grabner, they have been great finds. However, the Islanders did not have too much pressure on them following the awful losing streak from last year. I think the Murray may have alluded to hat after the Isles played the Kings last year. It brings up an interesting discussion point which may have allowed for the Islanders to take more chances/risks throughout the game and allow for some players to reach their numbers.
I am not being a hater of pessimist but i think that flip side may have to be considered when projecting for this year.
On defense we need a number 2. plain and simple. it takes pressure off of Hamonic and won’t expose Jurcina or Eaton as much. Hamonic mat be in for the proverbial “sophomore slump” and if that’s the case, we need a number 2 to deflect that
I don't really buy the 'no pressure' theory
Guys are playing for new contracts, permanent NHL spots, and pride. If anything I think there is more pressure to stop losing. You are in a slump, you haven’t scored a goal personally in 8 games. The team cannot stop loosing. The fans are booing you. All you want is to just put the puck in the net so you start picking corners. Try to take the perfect shot or the perfect pass. This needle-threading results in posts and turnovers etc. When you’ve won 1 game in the last 19 you are not loose…you are friggin tense.
No Sleep 'til....
by Anarcurt on Aug 12, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Mostly agree
That whole “pressure” thing can easily go both ways, and probably depends on the player anyway. (Some players feel “pressure” in a good way after a big contract; some feel “no pressure” in a bad way after a big contract, etc.)
I have no idea if Rob Schremp felt pressure or not, but I’d think players like him ending up in Europe is a good example of how there is constant pressure just to stay in the league.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Does PAP have to marry one of Moulsen's sisters get get some love around here
The guys gets his first extended action in the NHL and puts up 53pts and is being shown the door already. By the way that 53pts tried for 2nd on the team. Until some of these other guys prove something I say stop talking about what we might have and look at what we do have.
by IslesinAZ on Aug 12, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
sorry...was looking at Pap as a "bridge" player
same as Rolston, Reasoner, Haley, Streit, Jurcina, Mottau and Eaton…I am tempted to see Comeau in this group too though
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a lot of people are looking at PAP that way
But I go back to that article (and I can’t find it right now) about the production of first liners. Leaguewide, scoring production is down. In the NHL, you have 90 first liners (30 teams X 3 players), if he was in the top 90 in scoring, he’s a first liner.
I mean, if the guy puts up 60+ this year, I’m not even sure I would trade him for a first rounder. But if the Isles are looking to maximize his trade value, playing him with BC and JB seems foolish.
The problem I have with PaP playing with those two is, I find him to be a much better, but very similar to Schremp. A perimeter distributor, which is exactly what JB and BC already are. Who’s going to the net on that line? The best those two played all season are when Sim, Martin and Joensuu were creating havoc out front.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Aug 13, 2011 7:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also
I find it sad that two guys playing in Sweden and one who was the worst advanced statistical player on the team made two high draft picks look better than they could do on their own.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Aug 13, 2011 7:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
what about Pap with Neilson and Grabner?
how do you see that one Keith? It would allow KO to play on the top line, a chance to live up to expectation and salary…KO should be the prototypical player, minus dropping the gloves, to play with JT and Moulson…Rolston could then play with Bailey and Comeau…
At the same time developing an additional offensive line in the juniors and minors: led by Strome, Nino
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 13, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the problem we have
Is that we have too many “distributors” in general. I guess PAp w FN and MG could work if you consider the home run pass, but then who digs in the corners on that line?
I like my lines (to the extent possible) to look like 9-19-22, grit with scoring touch, distributing center, sniper. I don’t expect hall of fame, but you get my point. In a perfect world, I wish Haley and Martins hands were better and just sprinkle them throughout the lineup. One plays with JT/MM, one with JB/BC.
As far as KO, (and really anybody) I just would like for the guy to not be denied the role and go out and take it instead of “put him there so he can reach his potential”. I believe the coaching staff can assess the situation and make that call based on what they see, not what “could be if”. Know what I mean?
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Aug 13, 2011 8:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
good answer
the ol’ tried and proven formula: grinder – playmaker – goal scorer. i know what you mean about KO. he could still turn out to be a good thirdliner, but hope to see him break out. even if it is 20 goals, could see him adding 50 assists on the top line. When if Nino/Strome are ready, that is when it should really get interesting. Two scoring line plus Grabs and Frans.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 13, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
He may have not lived up to his potential yet
But hes definitely more than “a good third liner”. I mean he put up 52 points in just his second season, even if that turns out to be his ceiling or his average, 50~ points is nothing to scoff at and is definitely worthy of at least the second line
"Mario Lemiuex… I used to respect you."- Turgeon1992
PAP
Take me to the bridge…..until otherwise proven.
Biggest problem is his defensive play. Watched him do a blind pass in the Montreal replay game which lead to a goal. He improved over the year but that is still an achillies heal.
Lastly, he is not a sniper which JT needs to really shine on his line.
Is 34 goals good enough for the 2nd line?
Not saying Kyle is not good enough for the 2nd line, but he may end up fitting on the 3rd line with incoming talent.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Aug 17, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Finding the No. 1 goaltender to me should be the top priority
See: 2011 Stanley Cup Finals
If NYI finds one top-shelf goalie, they’ll be contenders.
will that number one goalie come from within?
Montoya, Poulin, Nilsson or Koskinen? My thinking is odds are pretty good one of the first three will be that number one goalie, and Koskinen maybe a very good backup, kind of in the mold of a Rollie Melanson.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
case and point. Avalanche two yrs ago. They are in the same boat as us and kinda had a good run and made the playoffs. then look at last yr. How about the Isles make the playoffs first before we reach cup contention? If we would have won 6 out of those 19 games we lost…we would have battled for 7/8th spot. And 6 games through out the yr could have gone either way. 2 yrs in a row, A bad stretch of 10+ games torched our season. Lets not have this. We’ve also been one of the more competetive teams over the last 1.5 games. It doesnt have much to do with our D. Bc guys stepped the hell up. The losses over time to Bergenheim, Godard, Campoli, Sutton, Hillen, Gervais are certainly evident in that it hurt our depth. As they moved on to greener pasture. We are not as bad as our stats or win/loss indicates. But had we have had competent goal tending (only minus Rolie bc he kept us in games night in/night out)…We would be considered the NHL’s rag monkeys. Which in all fairness to us Islander fans…are not
Lets look at this yrs roster instead of infiltrating the minors and juniors and looking ahead. Brock Nelson is at least 3 yrs away. CDH is a season and change away. Nino is a big wing who can hit, skate, and score. And Haley has the qualities that he can fit in on any of the bottom 3 lines. See Sean Avery. He has a very similar game starting below the mouth bc Haley doesnt run his. And like it or not, Avery puts up points, hits, and fights. Look at what Haley did to Adams? and Avery? and scored some goals along the way. He could be considered part of this core too. Id like him to be.
And regarding the future, Id like to point out, Strome is gona be a center. The more and more people talk about him. If we have to show JB the door to accomodate this kid, so be it. No matter how good JB could be. Strome is a human highlight reel. And with 2 great scoring lines and a 2 way highlight line, Id be okay with that. Who knows, as much as Id hate the notion, maybe Strome takes Frans’ place. I want frans’ to be in the orange and blue for as long as possible bc hes an amazing asset to this organization.
Lets go Islanders…2012 back into the tourney at least.
Strome as a centre
I don’t disagree with this…one of the things i like best about the team the Islanders are building is that a number of the players are diverse, can play more than one position…if we are projecting the future based on ceiling, we are going to want JT and Strome to play some time together, with Nino too assuming all three panout…that line has several options, and of course when broken up, Strome and JT could both be playing centre, but when they are on same line, it will require someone else to be the 2nd centre, play powerplay, etc.
JT — Strome — Nino
Nino – JT – Strome
I like having two centres on ice, helps with faceoffs etc. If all three panout, long term that would be a number one line to rival any in the league.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
By 2013-2014
…things on ice should be looking real good. My vote went for a #1 defenseman. Between now and then its Streit’s job. But by Oct. 2013 either he’ll be gone or his play will be more in line with a 2nd or 3rd pair D-man. I would think by Oct. 2013 the Islanders can somehow get a #1 D-man to replace him; either by making a trade or over paying an UFA. I don’t think any of the current prospects has what it takes to grown into a clear #1 D-man.
Upfront by 2013 they should be looking good. But they will probable need at least on of (Lee, B. Nelson, Petrov or Kabanov) to turn into a top six forward. The depth on D looks fine with Donovan, deHaan, Mayfield and Padan. And I think the goaltending issues over the next three years will sort itself out, even if none of the current goalies is the answer.
They just need that #1 D-man.
You just won't stop with this will you?
" To draft one big, physical right shooting right wing who can fight, and skate and play with the stars."
No. No we don’t. We need good players, presumably a wing.
In addition, Frans Nielsen isn’t signed past 2011-2012, so putting him up there is presumptive of you.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
relax garik
its called projecting and a bit of wishing. kind of like asking which type of player you’d ideally like to see added? a bobby nystrom comes to mind for me, plus, if under the right circumstances we secure a number one D, the difference that would make for the team probably is too good to pass up. frans of course is part of projecting, i think everyone is well aware of when he is ufa, same as comeau…it’s just a depth analysis exercise. being a fan doesn’t have to be like city among the old KGB in the former Soviet Union.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Aug 12, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Nielsen
I put money on Neilsen signing a new contract before next season is over. Just like Moulson did last year.
by John from ATL on Aug 12, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
actually...
the comment i made says “following” the losing streak (meaning after they lost all those games). Also, when Murray made that statement, it was some time in late in the season. The Isles were not in playoff contention and, therefore, had no playoff pressure. When I said pressure it was in terms of not having anything on the line at the end of the season, allowing the isles to take more chances.
islesinfo Tom Mascioli
by swedishislander
Johan Sundstrom scored a goal (EN), and an assist in Sweden’s 6-4 win vs. USA at Lake Placid today. He finishes camp 4-9-13 in 5 GP. #isles
No Sleep 'til....
by Anarcurt on Aug 13, 2011 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
sounds like a solid camp
hopefully this translates into a good year in the SEL and then a year in a bridgeport followed by a go with the big club.

by 













































