FanPost

How likely is a sophomore slump for Travis Hamonic?

So a lot of people (or maybe a few vocal people) keep commenting  on how we can't go into the season next year relying upon Travis Hamonic to keep up or improve on last year because of the "sophomore slump." 

So I took a look, using GVT (Hockey Prospectus' statistic which measures total player value, including offensive, defensive, and shootout contributions) since I lack a good measure for Defense historically, of how defensemen who played 60+ games in their first season did in their second season (assuming they had a 2nd season). We're talking 190 Defensemen on this list.  

Of the 190 D-Men on this list, 116 improved the next year, while 74 put up worse numbers. So putting up "worse" numbers is certainly possible, and happens a decent amount for such players, but it's NOT more likely to happen than an improvement in the sophomore season.  

And mind you, that's not telling the whole story.  Quite likely, the 74 who put up worse numbers includes a whole bunch of players whose GVT totals in their rookie season were aided a good bit by luck and context-not-accounted for by GVT.  So it's certainly likely, though I can't prove it with my database, that many of these players' sophomore slumps were the result of facing increased competition and harder offensive situations than they did in their rookie seasons.....

And of course, Hamonic CAN'T really face harder situations in his sophomore season, as he was already playing against top competition and facing meh offensive situations.  He was already playing #1 D-Man minutes, so this factor is moot.

Overall, this makes a sophomore slump for Hamonic, barring injury, a good deal less likely than his performance improving next year due to development.

<em>Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.</em>

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