How likely is a sophomore slump for Travis Hamonic?
by garik16 on Jul 15, 2011 1:26 AM EDT
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PrintSo a lot of people (or maybe a few vocal people) keep commenting on how we can't go into the season next year relying upon Travis Hamonic to keep up or improve on last year because of the "sophomore slump."
So I took a look, using GVT (Hockey Prospectus' statistic which measures total player value, including offensive, defensive, and shootout contributions) since I lack a good measure for Defense historically, of how defensemen who played 60+ games in their first season did in their second season (assuming they had a 2nd season). We're talking 190 Defensemen on this list.
Of the 190 D-Men on this list, 116 improved the next year, while 74 put up worse numbers. So putting up "worse" numbers is certainly possible, and happens a decent amount for such players, but it's NOT more likely to happen than an improvement in the sophomore season.
And mind you, that's not telling the whole story. Quite likely, the 74 who put up worse numbers includes a whole bunch of players whose GVT totals in their rookie season were aided a good bit by luck and context-not-accounted for by GVT. So it's certainly likely, though I can't prove it with my database, that many of these players' sophomore slumps were the result of facing increased competition and harder offensive situations than they did in their rookie seasons.....
And of course, Hamonic CAN'T really face harder situations in his sophomore season, as he was already playing against top competition and facing meh offensive situations. He was already playing #1 D-Man minutes, so this factor is moot.
Overall, this makes a sophomore slump for Hamonic, barring injury, a good deal less likely than his performance improving next year due to development.
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I think the main point of this
This that he was our number one defenseman for a while. Once A Mac went down it was all him, he was sheltered in no way. I think most sophmore slumps would come from starting to take harder minutes but he can’t take any harder minutes. I’ve always been high on him so maybe I’m a bit bias but he looks to be our future all around defense man. 19 AHL games to settle in before shining in the NHL. Come on he’s no joke, kids a future star and a great second round pick for Garth. He’ll probably even be better than DeHaan and I know AP will agree with that.
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by pgat28 on Jul 15, 2011 6:13 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
agree
I can’t see him slumping next season, he should be a part of the 2nd D Pairing with Amac and facing weaker competition then last year.
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The source of sophomore slumps
So it’s certainly likely, though I can’t prove it with my database, that many of these players’ sophomore slumps were the result of facing increased competition and harder offensive situations than they did in their rookie seasons…
I subscribe to that theory.
For causes of sophomore slumps, you basically have: 1) luck (either in the rookie year, or bad luck the 2nd year); 2) summer partying (let the NHL life get to his head, affect his conditioning/prep; or 3) Difficulty handling increased responsibility.
I’d say #3 is more common, especially in this era of diligent summer training — these days a Chris Pronger probably doesn’t misspend his early offseasons — and Hamnoic already proved he could handle big responsibility last season.
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with #3, pressing to hard
I think guys come in their 2nd year and press to hard to be even better. they know they are expected to be better than their rookie season and they don’t realize that their ability will naturally increase with ice time the press to do more, to be better now.
with many of the veterans coming back with good health, it may help because they can give him the #2 pairing with Streit taking top pair with someone else. I would lik eto see Amac stay with Hamonic
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by Rickfansince76 on Jul 15, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
See Tyler Myers in Buffalo
He decided to “bulk-up” and it cost him early in the season. So you have to be cautious and not put too much pressure to prove last year was no fluke.
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Good points by all...
Travis has handled the big time, important minutes without being sheltered by a vet like Streit. There’s no reason why he can’t actually improve during his sophomore year. In fact, with all the clamoring about trading for Shea Weber, we may have his clone (in its early stages) on our hands. That one timer on 4/8/11 against Pittsburgh was very Weber-esque!
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by Carl Rackie on Jul 15, 2011 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Does anyone foresee
Amac and Hammer keeping their status as #1 D pairing going into the new season? Even if he puts in a good camp, it’s hard for me to imagine Streit really being ready to be #1 again.
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by ilopan on Jul 15, 2011 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I can see
…AMac and Hamonic as the top shutdown pair and Streit getting secondary even-strength minutes plus being on the PP as much as he can handle. (about 1:30 average if powerplays are spread out.) Or I could see Hamonic with Streit and AMac with someone else even strength. This may make more sense if Hamonic joins Streit on the PP…. We’ll see.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Jul 15, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I get the feeling they are #2
I think Streit is #1 pairing, and there will be a desire to keep Amac and Hamonic together. I would like to see Streit pair with Jurcina but it wiould probably be Eaton
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by Rickfansince76 on Jul 15, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder
Certainly what I see is Streit/AMac/Hamonic give them options.
If you buy that PP is less taxing work (assuming his shoulder isn’t averse to effective slapshots from the point), then maybe he is rationed for that role more than for any shutting down, in which case maybe AMac and Hamonic handle the first pair defensive duties.
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So it’s certainly likely, though I can’t prove it with my database, that many of these players’ sophomore slumps were the result of facing increased competition and harder offensive situations than they did in their rookie seasons…
Here’s a look at that I did last year They definitely show an increase from year to year in competition, at least on average.
On that topic also, though I know GVT has it’s shortcoming’s defensively, I’d be curious how many of the 74 decreases in GVT came strictly because of an offensive decline. When I did the work, it looked like the players that got exposed where those in the league on their offensive merit, and their defense couldn’t catch up to the offense fast enough.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 15, 2011 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Dammit..copy/paste fail on the link Try this one
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by George E. Ays on Jul 15, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
2/3 of the decrease in those players was defense based.
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Hmm, interesting.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 15, 2011 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
There's an obvious reason for this......
GVT uses Relative +/- as its main measure of player defense, meaning goalie variance results in large defense changes at times.
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I think Hamonic's TYPE of defenseman
…is less likely to bust. He’s very well-rounded and seems focussed. Offensive-style defensemen with gaps on the defensive side are more likely to have a sophomore slump, I believe.
Also, I don’t think sophomore slumps are as prevalent as they used to be. (Don’t have stats to back that up.) Perhaps coaches have learned how to better deal with sophomores.
JT had the opposite of a sophomore slump. I see some of the same behavioral qualities in Travis as JT.
All that said, he did surpass expectations SO much his rookie season that if Travis has a bit of a sophomore slump, there will be people questioning his abilities left-and-right, I believe (not necessarily Islander fans). (No matter how he plays this coming season, I think he’ll be a good, solid D-man for many years. The question is how much of an offensive force he can become.)
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Jul 15, 2011 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
when an offensive player has the "sophmore slump"
sometimes it is a result of opposition adapting to said players moves, technic, etc. The challenge is then for said player and his team to ajust.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
it's a multi-layered question
a GM has to explore every possible case scenario and be prepared. In Hamonic’s case, the other end of the equation is, if he has a few bad games and makes a few bad plays, is he going to be thrown under the bus? There is a learning curve to the NHL. Hamonic has had a few bad plays already. While there is no reason to believe Hamonic will ever be a 60 pt. plus Dman, there is every reason to believe he will be a 25 /30 to 40 point Dman, who excells at defense. Put another way, does anyone believe Hamonic is going to be the same player in five years that he was last year? No, he should have improved – i wouldn’t be surprised to see Hamonic become someone like a Serge Savard.
IMO, I think it was your article title where you were off a bit Garik, where you wrote that Isles need for a top 4 D was “enourmously” overstated….I see it as somewhere in the middle of that statement. I do agree with you that it’s been overstated, it isn’t as if the ship will sink without adding another top 4 D, but i also would not go as far as to say it was an “enormous” stretch. Simply put, we can not predict the future. Hamonic doesn’t have enough games under his belt for us to be taking for granted his output, and he is still on the learnig curve…then again, I wouldn’t make a stupid trade b/c i do not believe i am desperate, b/c i have Hamonic – and we are rebuilding, and like Torrey used to say, go with the kids…do i think he will be a bust, no. I think DeHaan is a much greater risk for bust. Even if Hamonic doesn’t turn out with the offense, he has the size and everything else needed to be a defensive Dman.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions
If he were to become Serge Savard we would be set for a decade and a placard at the Hall.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
a good player to look at for this would be Sylvain Turgeon (Pierre's brother)
i think he had 39 goals, 72 points in his rookie year with hartford if my memory is correct…a few years later he was a nobody.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 11:09 AM EDT reply actions
in fairness
He was a member of the Ottawa Senators expansion team which for some reason always beat the Isles, while having grand total of 11/12 wins.
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and now that I looked it up
He had 72-62-79 points his first 3 seasons, his downfall seems to be a large number of injuries he suffered.
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he played for Ottawa?
did not remember that…
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah he did
There was a dude at my school who even walked around in a Senators Turgeon jersey. The strangest thing I’d ever seen.
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lol
hard to imagine anyone wearing a sens jersey in NY back in those days lol
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
hard to imagine
S. Turgeon was also drafted 2nd overall, after Brian Lawton, before Lafontaine, Yzerman and Barrasso
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Do nearly 40% of all players regress statistically from one year to the next?
Only 74 out of 190 got worse in their second season. Some of course got so much worse they did not have a second season so they regressed infinitely. Is it statistically significant that 40% regressed compared to players going from their 3rd to fourth or fifth years? At what year in the league do players in the NHL actuallly peak and compare years leading up to that season to see if there is a regression in year two or not., maybe not even a regression, but less growth than their career trend.
So although a slump is not probable it wouldn’t be the wisest strategy to preclude it from happening either and it may be more likely that a player slumps in their second year than any other year of their development.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
not really a science but it generally tends to be around the 27 - 29 years of age when they hit their prime
of course i am generalizing…some players (stars) peak at a much younger age and maintain that provided they stay healthy.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions
At least points wise, it’s a little younger than that. I would buy that defensemen peak closer to 27-29, however.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 15, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I always thought it was around 25 for a forward which is much younger than people anticipate.
The spin has always been that the player becomes more “rounded” and sacrifices points for defensive responsibility. I tend to think you just peak athletically around 25.
Nassau Coliseum lost a veteran and an original Islander fan. ACC 1918-2011
that study is somewhat of a positive predictor for Isles fans
looking @ 2008 pics plus Neilson, KO and AMAC (the three 2008 drafted players I feel most likely to still be around when team is a contender)….
if correct, 2015 – 7 years after being drafted, would be the peak years….JT will have probably peaked earlier than average
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 15, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Guys like Tavares I think end up in a slightly different mold, they’re not gonna show the bell curve like that study does.
Assuming he is what I think he is, he’s likely going to be a guy that has one really ridiculous season which could come anywhere from age 22-29, and maintain ~75-85 point seasons over multiple years.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 15, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
On Tavares
I agree. I dont think he’ll ever hit 100 pts, but he should be a consistent ppg center (80 pts) for most of his career.
This is all a little ridiculous...
…don’t you think.
I really haven’t heard, or read anybody worrying about Hamonic in terms of “sophomore slump”. He is an individual playing a team game. We still don’t know who he’ll be paired with or where he fits in as far as role… and we’re trying to statistically figure out whether it is LIKELY his numbers will be “off”….really?
Good lord people… take this time (It’s STILL JULY) to learn how to make a good margarita… That might benefit you more in the future.
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On other threads, especially the one about the Isles’ (lack of) need for a top-4 D.
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, the conversation just got to that point when discussing the top 4 situation.
It wasn’t “Hamonic is gonna suck next year” talk, it was more “beware that Hamonic may not be as good next year as we hope because he played heavy minutes with our best/1-of-the-best defensive d-men in the nhl, had less pressure on him then he will this year, and is still very young”. More precautionary then penciling him in to be amac-lite defensively next year while throwin up 30pts. Or in other words, don’t count on Hamonic to lead a top 4 d-pairing next year. For example, if the defensive pairing ended up being Streit/A-mac and Hamonic/Eaton-Jurcina-Mottau I would expect some issues to happen with the Hamonic pairing. It was definitely more pre-cautionary talk then being down on Hamonic. Take Bailey for example(non-sophmore related). Coming into last season, most had a reasonable expetation around a 20goal/40pts season from him while centering the 3rd line, or even possibly upgraded to the 2nd last year. But he didn’t progress like we hoped. Similar to that, as in beware on the youth’s maturation process.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m very high on Hamonic and expect him to be a very solid 2-way top 4 d-man in the NHL for a while, I just don’t think, as some others do, that going into camp next year with our defense as is the correct way to have a good shot at the playoffs. Going “against” what Garik’s article says, that we don’t need a top-4 d-man for next year but for different reasons then he believes. I think we all would agree that we lack 4 legit top 4 d-men right now, and with question marks in net, getting this top 4 hole on D plugged is somewhat a necessity to push hard for a playoff spot this upcoming year.
Besides Eaton and Mottau...
there is CONSIDERABLE UPSIDE left in every defender. Either due to their age, experience or use of ability. Considering this year they should be 8 deep going into the first game, and hopefully never have to go deeper than 10… we will be in good shape.
Given the pressure cooker hamonic was thrown into, I really find it hard to believe that he’ll regress. If anything his ROLE might regress and his numbers may suffer, but his personal performance should benefit… and the team should benefit from that greatly.
I don’t even want to bring up their injury history… but a year where we finish using 10 defensemen would mean that they would have plenty of time to gel… something that was rarely found for anybody but MacDonald and Hamonic. That should be another factor when determining how deep our need is for a “top 4” defensemen.
If one is available… great. If not, then this group can be asked to be playoff worthy… i really don’t see that as an UNREASONABLE EXPECTATION.
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And we forget
That Amac played the majority of last season with Islander face AND hip. Remember those game where it was like he couldn’t find the puck? I’ll bet that skewed the numbers for both a bit. Meaning, as much as he played, that pairing wasn’t all that healthy either.
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by Keith Quinn on Jul 16, 2011 12:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
agreed (2nd paragraph)
Even when healthy, our defense is near average. If Wishart can realize his top 4 potential this season, we should compete for a spot. As for our goaltending, we have 3 legit guys capable of being a #1. The way I see it, one of thems bound to figure it out.
Agree with everything said.
I’m a huge fan of Hamonic and think he has a chance to be a top pairing shutdown defender in the future. I just don’t think that relying on him for top pairing minutes next year plus an improvement is the right thing to do. He’s still very young and came in with lower expectations last year. I think a top 4 dman is necessary to add depth to the defense and give the prospects an extra year or so in Bridgeport. The team finished in 27th in the league last season. The future looks very bright with all of the prospects and young players but the playoffs are still a big step up from last season’s play.
by nyislanders93 on Jul 16, 2011 10:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was wondering what thread the "lot of people" comment was referencing
There seem to be more and more references lately to what “LHH commenters say” — as if everyone here is one voice — that take me by surprise. I can’t keep up with 100% of comments the way I used to, but I see most of ‘em and don’t detect a lot of topics for mass hysteria. Maybe I just have a pre-filter.
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by Dominik on Jul 15, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think people are upset at times
With our anti-hysteria. Not feeding in to the “need a top 6 F/top 4 D” march.
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by Keith Quinn on Jul 16, 2011 12:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
what i like about LHH
i too started with botta’s website, learned about LHH and never bothered with it for a while, then switched altogether…not a fan of islandersmania.
my rationale: for the most part, LHH operates in the same/similar manner as mother academia, and being an academic, i am not only at home with this, i believe it is the best way to go. debate is always encouraged, but like academia, there are protocols that must be respected…particularly respect for other opinions…that is how we all learn from each other, no one is right all the time…also, just like academia, sometimes consensus can be boring…it stagnates debate. healthy, open debate with respect and a good chair/moderator is what makes the site so valuable. Even with Dom, you are free to disagree with him and argue your point, without worrying about having your posts deleted if you do not tell him how great he is…and of course, Dom and his team…Keith, Mike and the rest are a pretty good group.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 16, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
great post :)
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by TheMetalChick on Jul 16, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Pairings and Expectations
For Hamonic to be successful we need to bring him along slowly still as he is still learning the game mentally and physically. To expect him to play too many critical moments would be exactly what stalled KO’s development.
I think it is important that we bring in another defenseman to play alongside Streit and allow Amac and Hamonic to play together and grow.
Ummmm he played all critical moments last year.
KO’s development “stalled” because of an injury last year and because he never was that great of a shooter. And the injury last year makes it hard to tell if it really “stalled”
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I dont think Kyle was rushed
As im sure you know he had two seasons from his draft year to mature, and was even given a 9 game tryout and the end of his 2nd so he knew where to improve over the summer. During his 1st season, I think Guerin was still our top right wing, so he wasnt being overplayed.
For Hamonic to be successful we need to bring him along slowly
too late lol.
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by TheMetalChick on Jul 16, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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