Want to make a splash Garth? Sign Tomas Vokoun
by garik16 on Jun 30, 2011 9:46 PM EDT
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With the move recently to try and sign Christian Ehrhoff (A move I disagree with for the reasons outlined here:), Garth Snow has shown he's willing to go for a big splash, even if it costs a bunch of money and multiple years.
So now the question is: who do you make a big splash on? Where are the Islanders' holes?
Well the Islanders' problems last year were as follows, from least important to most important:
1. The Third and Fourth lines could not get the puck out of our own zone, preventing us from maximizing the skills of our top 6 forwards.
2. The Defense was terrible at keeping the puck pointed in the right direction
3. Our goaltending was beyond awful, led by horrible horrible Rick DiPietro
Of these, #1 and #2 should be fixed a good deal just naturally: the 3rd line will get stronger as Nino Niederreiter joins the squad (he should make the NHL at some point next year), eventually Ryan Strome and other prospects will join as well (Kabanov most likely to make the big impact in my opinion), and of course Josh Bailey is still young and will probably (hopefully) improve.
Meanwhile our D improves naturally as injuries are gone (Hello Mark Streit), and our prospects are really close De Haan will make the team at some point this year, though he'll probably start on the Bridge, with Donovan probably in the same situation. And of course, Hamonic (and AMac) is still very young and will only get better.
But #3 is an enigma: The Islanders have several goaltending options, but they range from an injury-prone player who was epicly bad the last year (Rick DiPietro) who the team is unfortunately heavily committed to, to a bunch of young guys and Al Montoya, who are essentially cyphers at this point. None of the guys has put up a large enough sample size for us to make any real judgment as to their quality. In other words, we can't say that any of these guys will even end up with a career as an average NHL netminder.
Goalies are ridiculously hard for teams to predict, you see, because well, the difference between a terrible goalie and a great goalie is not a lot of shots going in the net (in Al Montoya's case, if he lets in 5 extra goals spread out, he's suddenly a below average netminder). Thus goalies are prone to putting up great or terrible numbers one year, and suddenly putting up the opposite results the next year (Tim Thomas' last three years show this phenomenon).
So essentially the only clear way to identify great goaltenders is to have multiple years to look at. Quoting Timo Seppa of Hockey Prospectus: " the only four goaltenders to post top-20 save percentages every season since the lockout, [not counting 2011] were Vokoun, Lundqvist, Brodeur and Luongo." Counting 2011, Brodeur leaves that group, leaving 3 players we can clearly point to as elite goalies.
And one of these guys is on the market: Tomas Vokoun. And for some reason, because he seemingly had an off season (only 10th best in SV%, oh nos!) and somewhat due to age (a very reasonable complaint, he's 34), he's not being talked about as a huge free agent, though he's thought likely to command a good bit of money (Probably slightly less than the 5.7 M per year being given to Brzygalov). The age concern is likely to scare off most teams, and is a legitimate complaint for teams who are low on cash and are near the cap.
But the Isles aren't near the cap and apparently CAN spend some money on a big marquee player this year. The problem is that there really are no stars they can beat out other teams for or that fit needs. But Vokoun IS such a player. Put it this way: the difference between 2011 Rick Dipietro in goal for 54 games (the amount of time Vokoun played for the Panthers) and 2011 Tomas Vokoun essentially amounted to SEVEN WINS.
What this means is this: If you changed nothing about the Isles but the goalie from DiPi to Vokoun, assuming both played for 2/3 of the season, the Islanders would have essentially FOURTEEN MORE POINTS IN THE STANDINGS. That's a HUGE increase, and would essentially ensure that the Isles would be in contention next year even if their players didn't develop any further.
LONG TERM, obviously this would be a risk, and probably would hurt the Isles a little, but by that point we might be able to know if we have a great goalie in Poulin, Montoya, Koskinen, or Nillson.
Really, there's no big splash we could make that would make as big an impact - 7 whole wins - as signing Tomas Vokoun. All the Isles need to do is to not be afraid of the contract and to realize that DiPi is a sunk cost at this point. I think it's well worth it.*
*The Isles won't sign Tomas Vokoun btw....I have no illusions on this matter. But it is the best move they could make.
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No
We’ve seen recently that most goalies have a window of 4-5 years of prime play before they start declining. Vokoun has had a .919 or better SV% since the 05-06 year.
The Isles are going to stick it out with DP. They are going to give Montoya a chance to see what he can do. They have Poulin, Koskinen and Nilsson as all viable starters in the future. I think the organization is going to do everything it can to answer the goaltending question from within, or they wouldn’t have been willing to go with Lawson as #3 last year.
I still have some insane hope that DP can bounce back to become a respectable backup goalie at least.
I think someone is going to overpay for Vokoun and give him too many years or someone that’s just on the verge of fading. Plus he hasn’t exactly had pressure on him in Nashville or Florida.
"I bet Calgary wishes they had a backup goalie as their GM" - Pauly C
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
......He won't have more pressure on the Island.
I’m not sure where you’re getting this 4-5 year window from. Nor is the fact that he’s had 5 good years evidence that he’s going to be poor next year (in fact, that’s just plain stupid). What you’ve seen mainly is that goalies well…..are unpredictable.
DP is terrible. Montoya, Poulin, Koskinen, and Nilsson are super-unknowns, (especially the latter two). We’re talking one of the top goalies in the league for sure, vs a bunch of unknowns.
Yes paying to get him will be overpaying (goalies shouldn’t get that much, that much I agree). But for the Isles, it’d be the most effective way to throw around money; far more than spending it on Ehrhoff
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
Brodeur only had 4-5 good seasons
besides those the man has been absolutely terrible
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Jul 1, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions
We’ve seen recently that most goalies have a window of 4-5 years of prime play
Brodeur has also been playing in a system which means he’s faced minimal shots and not a lot of high chance scoring situations. He’s been very good, but it would have been nice to maybe see him on a team that wasn’t defense first for the last two decades.
"I bet Calgary wishes they had a backup goalie as their GM" - Pauly C
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
And Vokoun is arguably the best goalie in the league.
Also, on an NJD note, NJ scorers undercount. That deflates Brodeur’s save percentage.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jul 1, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I am doing research on said Martin Broduer of the NJD for a future FanPost
Here is a quick peek and some Broudeur stats: PLAYOFFS: Pre lockout: 143 games, 1.94 GAA, 52 of those games he faced 20 shots OR less: AFTER the lockout and rule changes: 37 games played, 2.59 GAA, 3 of those games he faced 20 shots or less.
We are all Islanders, even if we are in Jersey!
by Russel Ginart on Jul 1, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll tell you what I'm sure of
He’s going to be one of the most overrated goalies of all time.
His replacements and backups have largely been just as good if not better then him, only to get traded away and crash and burn.
He had the good fortune to break into the league just as the 80s insane scoring was cooling off. He also had the good luck of being extremely healthy during his time.
Is there that much of a difference between Chris Osgood and Marty Brodeur? I’m sure if you switched them, both teams would still have the same levels of success.
"I bet Calgary wishes they had a backup goalie as their GM" - Pauly C
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
I Cringe When People Say He's Better than Roy
Roy was 151-94 in the playoffs. Brodeur is 99-82 in the playoffs. Brodeur could win all the games neccessary to win the Cup three more times (48 wins) and STILL be short of Roy in playoff wins. The fact is, despite winning three Cups, Brodeur has often been lacking in the playoffs at critical times. He’s a first ballot HOF’er no doubt, but not the goalie god people often make him out to be.
Yeah, too much recognition. Roy/Belfour/Hasek>Brodeur.
He’s great, but I don’t think he’s elite. He’s a product of that system.
I like it
With the caveat that it would need to be relatively short, preferably two, four years at the most. If one of these goalies pans out, we’ll need to be able to utilize their cheap value in order to resign guys and hopefully bring in a critical piece down the road.
I’d have no problem overpaying Vokoun until that time, but would want the possibility of clearing his contract easily.
But my guess is that at his age he’s pobably looking for one last contract to carry him to/near retirement. If Garth wants to make him the highest paid goalie in the league by a wide margin for the next two years, and that’s enough to convince him, then I say go for it.
by afrosupreme on Jun 30, 2011 11:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I don't think it's necessary
Yes, we need to get to the cap floor. But I doubt Vokoun takes anything less than 4 years/$20million. He’d be good on a one year, maybe even two year deal.
Vokoun is aging. I don’t think he’s a terrible goaltender. But in a very weak free agent market, he still wasn’t the top goalie set to hit the market (before the ancient and unstoppable Dwayne was resigned; arguably he is now). Our goaltending last season wasn’t “awful”; it was injury-riddled. It was because of these injuries that we discovered Montoya, who I think will start the season as the starter and do a damn good job, too.
Bottom-line: we need to reach the cap floor, but there are other, more important holes to fill on our team, and we should throw money at them (Scott Hannan, Eric Belanger, etc.).
Errrr, what?
You can make an argument for Bryzgalov being the top goalie set to hit the market (an argument i’d disagree with), but you’re kidding about Roloson right?
Vokoun isn’t just “not a terrible goaltender.” He’s an ELITE goaltender.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
Also our goaltending last year was awful.
DiPietro was godawful when healthy. And Montoya is more likely to regress to being crap than he is to be good again. He never had a SV% above .914…..in the AHL (including this late year). What’s more likely therefore to be a fluke?
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
To clarify
I wasn’t defending DiPietro. You’re right, he was godawful, and I’ve said this numerous times on this site: he can no longer perform at an NHL-caliber level, night-in-night-out. I think we’re both in agreement there.
As for Vokoun, I wouldn’t call him “ELITE.” Maybe “not a terrible goaltender” was a bit of a stretch, but I don’t consider him elite.
Maybe Montoya couldn’t post as high a SV%. But as far as flukes go, all goalies have equal potential to be flukes (Tim Thomas sandwiches two Vezina seasons with a season in which he lost his starting job to a rookie). We have quite a few goalies under contract next season, and they can all be flukes, you’re right. But so can Vokoun. So I’m saying: why waste money on a goaltender we might not need when we can spend money on the two other holes you have listed above.
Keep in mind that we need to hit the cap floor, but we don’t want to blow money because we have JT’s contract to extend/upgrade next year. If Snow lets him go until the summer, you know the Leafs will throw him an offer sheet that looks unmatchable, and Snow will have to match it.
by sayvillelax94 on Jul 1, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't want to just hope that a career bust finally came around and realized his potential
or that an injury prone, only good goalie when healthy will actually be healthy.
Or that Poulin, only 21, will recover from a knee injury and carry the load.
Or that Koskinen will actually realize his potential.
This team could be ready to take the next step. Don’t compromise it by having a carosel in net again. Get a proven, solid, goalie. Don’t go crazy and overpay, but sign Vokoun.
This goalie situation has been bothering me since February. It needs to be addressed. It could undermine the entire season. And if you’re worried about the young guys developing an expectation of winning, and not being content with small moral victories, then FIX THE GOALTENDING.
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
Don’t go crazy and overpay, but sign Vokoun.
I’m wondering if those aren’t mutually exclusive. Vokoun has been on doormats or budget teams all his career, and it’s getting late. If he’s not going to a contender, I imagine he’s going to want the moon and the stars.
This is why I like the idea, but I just don’t see it as feasible unless they cripple themselves or unless Vokoun waits too long and ends up getting Biron’d.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Jul 1, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's what I'm worried about
Say we sign Vokoun for 4 years/$22million, and he lays an egg in training camp while Montoya blossoms. Montoya starts the season, has a stellar year, and Vokoun can’t seem to get it right. We just paid $5.5 million to a backup.
by sayvillelax94 on Jul 1, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Montoyas stats
look at his earlier AHL stats…all decent. It wasnt until he was forgotten about in the AHL that his stats suffered. sounds more like a motivation issue to me.
Heh, clever
Albeit unrealistic, as you mention.
I’m always wary of banking too much on the “wins” and stats another goalie would provide. Obviously Vokoun would be an upgrade, but by how much is really beyond the reach of the stat sheet (aren’t Nashville and Florida two of the shot over-counting rinks? How much margin of error is contained there?).
Odds are he’d help, but odds are his contract demands would not (long term). Unless the market treats him like Nabokov.
As an aside, I really think Thomas’ dip two seasons ago was due to the hip that eventually required surgery last summer. But his case still points to how you don’t know what you’re getting even with a great goalie.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
The Only Way This Makes Sense is If You Then Trade a Poulin or Nilsson to Fill a Hole
Then you’re back to Milbury. No.
by rmblifn on Jul 1, 2011 3:34 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I understand this is far fetched, but it's at least explainable to the players involved:
Montoya is the backup. Put DP on waivers, which he’ll obviously pass, and send him to BPT. Have him split time with Poulin. Koskinen and Nilsson split time in the ECHL.
All those moves are justified. DP really shouldn’t get NHL time until he can play at an NHL level. It’s a tough thing to do, but the right thing to do for the franchise.
Koskinen struggled in AHL, tell him to he needs to adjust better and after this year, when Montoya is gone, he’ll move up. Nilsson also needs some adjustment time. Have fun in Kalamazoo boys.
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
don't see G in FA for Isles
I think Garth sticks with Montoya and DP unless there is an injury. He may seek someone to bolster BPT if Poulin is still far off. But if Poulin is close and can rehab in BPT and Koskinen I don’t think he signs a veteran. Toward the end of FA he might for BPT
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
No.
Of all the things the Isles need you think that goalie is their biggest deficiency?
If they traded for a top goalie they would have to get rid of at least 2 of the goalie contracts they have now.
It is not reality.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
Here's the flow chart
waive him
if someone decides to pick him up (paging Burke), it would be fantastic for the franchise (lose the burden of his crazy deal)
if as is 99.99% likely and he passes waivers, he goes to BPT and plays until he shows he can be relied upon as a starter again
and then our keepers are Poulin & Montoya – if Poulin isn’t healthy, we bring in an FA
Koskinen & Nilsson start in the minors whereever else there is room
and then there’s Nabokov
if he is sincere, he’d be worth a try actually playing while Poulin/Nilsson/Koskinen demonstrate in the minots that they are worthy of a shot
could make our main keepers = Montoya/Nabokov
with DP/Poulin/Koskinen/Nilsson awaiting/needing to justify a chance
I’d be very happy with that
much less happy if DP is the starter without having shown he deserves it – that could kill this team (again)
flow chart on what to do about DP of course, is what I was referring to...
which is the elephant in the room still
The Isles have to spend money
So would you rather overpay for a third line forward or a proven number one goaltender? That question answers itself.
Vokuon is elite and would bring stability to a position that demands such.
To count on the injury prone(which unfortunately Poulin is at this point) or the unproven is foolish when making the playoffs is a must for this team.
So why not take the Ehrhoff money and throw it Vokoun’s way for 2 years. it would in no way hinder our roster flexibility going forward and give time for one of the youngsters to emerge next year.
I don't have a problem with the two years part
Honestly I’d love for the Islanders to make a serious, wise stab like that. My assumption is Vokoun will look for far longer and more money than that to go to anything but a team that is already playoff bound.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
He's got to be getting more signable as this continues...
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
I'd like to see it
With Montoya as the back up and DP as the…..whatever.
Constantly building for the future.
Can't See It
Why would an elite level goalie (or just below elite) want to be part of a threeheaded goalie monster? One way or the other, the DP riddle needs to be solved. DP can not be a backup b/c of injuries and need for rest between starts. DP is also no where near his pre-injury form, no where near elite level. TV would have to be assured he was the new starter, plus, TV would require a backup, which Montoya or Poulin or Koskinen may very well do. So the problem then is what to do with DP…until he is gone, can’t see the NYI getting another top goalie to accept what Rollie just went through.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 1, 2011 3:05 PM EDT reply actions
Interesting idea, but it's just impossible to work out.
If Montoya never happened, I’d say go ahead with it. The Montoya signing by garth could become the worst move he did for next year if Montoya plays like he did in the ahl again. It’s one thing to have the DP gamble with his huge contract, it’s another to gamble with a guy who has played like crap in the minors for the last 3yrs but had a good 21gm stretch with us. You want reliability in the net, we shouldn’t have let Montoya stay. It’s a gamble that might not pay off and could cost us some frustration and games next year. Garth should have traded for or signed a reliable guy for dependabilitiy. We’ll see how the Montoya move works out, but it is one of the rare gambling moves that Garth has done.
No.
Do we need to sign 900 goalies so people can criticize the revolving door of goalie rotations again? No.
Forget Vokoun. The Isles have too many NHL-ready goalies as is. Supposedly Nabokov will show up for camp. Supposedly.
Hunter said he was just finishing his check.
by Turgeon1992 on Jul 1, 2011 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Serious question
How many NHL goalies do we really have? Those who have proven themselves over the multiple seasons.
Its really how many are under contract. And where the heck they will all play!
The Islanders do not need frickin Vokoun unless they trade away two of the prospects- Poulin, Koskinen, Nilsson, Montoya.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 1, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get the logic
Of worrying about where lesser players would play. The NHL squad be filled with the best possible players. Vokoun is clearly better than every goalie currently on the depth chart and if signing him meant sending Miko down to the ECHL and playing montoya behind poulin at bridgeport, so be it. The NHL squad needs to take a step forward next year and I don’t see how going into camp with a question mark at goal would go towards fulfilling that goal.
Lesser players?
Why are they “lesser” just because they are young?
One or more of them is far more likely to be the future of this team than frickin Vokoun.
Like I said though its not happening anyway.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 2, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
They're lesser because they're not likely to be as good as Vokoun.
Goalies are beyond unpredictable. Regardless of how they look, they’re just as likely to be below average as above average right now – talking of Poulin, Montoya, Koskinen, et al.
Vokoun on the other hand is the closest thing you’ll get to a sure thing of being an above average (top really) goalie. It’s a huge difference.
Who cares where they all fit.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
This is also going on the basis that DP is playing 54games at his overall crap level of last year.
I’m not saying DP is gonna be Tim Thomas, but to not expect him to get any better from his numbers last year would be bad guessing. DP is bound to improve, and if DP doesn’t better himself enough, Montoya will steal the starting job from him and take most of the starts. The difference isn’t as big as your stating of “14 more pts”. More likely 4-6pts~ I’d guess. Let’s not make a mountain out of ant hill. I know your intentions are good, but 14pts difference with Vokoun in net over whoever wins the starting job next year is a blatant lie.
14pts difference with Vokoun in net over whoever wins the starting job next year is a blatant
lieopinion.
Fixed that one again. Gotta watch throwing that word around, Ozzy lol. A lie is when someone intends to deceive you…but there is no deception here, only opinions. :)
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 2, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
IMHO
DP’s stats are b/c of injuries, physical limitations as a result of, and not b/c of lack of talent. I can’t see DP’s stats improving unless his health is restored, and while i am no MD, I don’t know of too many pro- hockey players who have had so many serious injuries for so long who returned to full health. If I’m wrong we all win, but i am cautiously cynical when it comes to DP’s health.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Jul 2, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
My point was, if DP still plays like he has for most of last season, then Montoya wins the starting job and starts 2/3+ of the season as a hopefully average starting goalie. If he is bad, input Poulin/Mikko/other goalie.
Garth isn’t gonna let our team suffer from bad goaltending this year in any form bigger then DP playing like crap as a backup goalie. Garth will make moves if need be, he did it last year to bring in Montoya and Nabokov, he’ll do it again if need be. We are highly likely going to get average overall goaltending out of our goalie tandem next year no matter who it be from.
Thank God Vokun signed with the Craps and this is no longer an issue...
Now we can put this crap about overpaying for a goaltender behind us and focus on trying to have a little faith in Montoya and Poulin, perhaps?
All this “WE NEEDS A GOALIE” is hogwash.
If we see a natural progression in the play of the STILL VERY YOUNG TEAM in front of the goalies we have to choose from, I tend to believe the talent that was displayed by Montoya and Poulin last season should well suffice as, with an improved team IN FRONT OF THEM, they will find themselves forced to defend against far fewer odd man rushes, sudden snap shots from point blank range and all those other things that will beat even the best goalies in hockey history.
A lot of you harbor a seemingly insane amount of hope that Bailey is somehow going to be a super star.
I tend to doubt it. Super stars actually shoot the damn puck, something Bailey forgets to do for stretches lasting multiple games at a time. Oko gets the same treatment, event though it’s starting to look like he couldn’t find the back of a net with a map, GPS and the goaltender stepping aside courteously, pointing to the back of the net and declaring “Here ya go, Kyle! Call me an old softy, but I believe everybody should get a fair chance every once in a while!”.
Just an honest question: Who contributed more to the team last season? Montoya and Poulin or Bailey and Okposo?
REALLY think about that one, because right now, I’m having a hard time conjuring memories of Bailey and Oko punching home (or even setting up) game winners and have more than a few memories of Montoya and Poulin standing on their heads to get the Isles the win.
Having been an NHL goalie himself, I think Garth knows something about NHL goalies and whether or not Montoya and Poulin have what it takes to be NHL goalies and NHL goalies that can help a team compete.
In Garth We Trust!
Jeff Carter to Columbus? Wait, I've seen this one before, it was called Shanahan to Hartford. Advice? Don't buy a Carter jersey.
by BrassBonanza10 on Jul 4, 2011 7:41 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Caps have an extra Goalie
I like Semyon Varlamov – filled in well in the play-offs grt him in a trade, comments?
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
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