It's a Long Road to NHL for 2011 Islanders Draftees
by Mark D on Jun 28, 2011 2:59 PM EDT
in Big Picture Musings
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There's been a lot of discussion about who's going to end up where when it comes to the Islanders opening night lineup. As much fun as it's been, I think some of it is missing Garth Snow's overall plan of taking it slowly with prospects.
Only Josh Bailey (due to lack of talent on the team) and John Tavares (future superstar) have been thrown immediately into the fire of NHL play. For the rest of the prospects who have been drafted under Snow, the NHL was anywhere from one to three stops away.
Play in the AHL is as close as it gets to the NHL level. Playing in the AHL gives youngsters the time to pick up all the ins and outs it takes to survive on the NHL level. For example, many coaches at the Islanders prospect camp last year mentioned that Justin DeBenedetto was night and day better in comparison to his play the year before. Nino Neiderreiter, who was barely old enough to be drafted last year, certainly looks more ready for the NHL following a 70 point year in the WHL and 28 points in 21 playoff games.
After the jump, we take a look at what it took for some of the current Islanders to get to where they are and what it means for the current batch of prospects.
Andrew MacDonald was drafted in the 6th round in 2006. At the time he was with the Moncton Wildcats of the QMJHL and played one more season with them as an overager. He was given a short (3 game) stint with Bridgeport following Moncton being eliminated from the playoffs in 2007. He started the following season in the ECHL with the Utah Grizzlies before being promoted to Bridgeport. In 08-09 he had his best AHL season with 32 points in 69 games and a +7 along with a short stint in the NHL.
Despite a strong camp in 09-10 he started the season again in the AHL. Following an injury to Mark Katic in the AHL and Brendan Witt in the NHL, MacDonald was the next one called up and hasn't been back to BP since.
Leagues since drafted: 3
Years from Draft to NHL appearance: 3 (06-09)
Jesse Joensuu was playing in SM-liiga when he was drafted in the second round of 2006. He played two more seasons for Assat Port before getting his first taste of the AHL in 07-08. Joensuu has been relatively successful since coming over to Bridgeport, getting two shorter stints (7 and 11 games) in the NHL while being one of the Sound Tigers major point contributors.This past season he got his first long term stint with the Islanders, splitting most of the season between BPT (36 games) and NHL (42 games).
Leagues since Drafted: 2
Years from Draft to NHL Appearance: 2
Travis Hamonic was playing in the WHL for the Moose Jaw Warriors when he was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft. He was traded during his overage year to help the Brandon Wheat Kings in their playoff run. He had a strong camp with the Islanders, and was going to be one of the key parts of this past year's Bridgeport defense. This plan lasted for all of 19 games, until a rash of injuries to every other defenseman left only Hamonic and Anton Klemetyev as possible NHL callups.
Hamonic then proceeded to play well enough not only to beat out Dylan Reese, but freed the Islanders to trade James Wisniewski. While it was a feel good story on the year, it certainly wasn't the plan for the season with the Islanders beginning the season with 8 defenseman and at least 3 prospects (Mark Katic, Dustin Kohn and Dylan Reese) in front of him.
Leagues since Drafted: 2
Years from Draft to NHL Appearance: 3
Matt Martin was drafted in the fifth round of 2008. He was one of two players the Islanders drafted from a Steve Stamkos-powered Sarnia Sting OHL team. Martin turned heads during his overage (and Stamkos-less) season, nearly doubling his point total from the previous year. He was an immediate success the following season in Bridgeport, putting up 31 points in 71 games. This included a short callup along with Joensuu to try and shake the team out of a slump it was in at the time.
Martin was going to make the team out of camp this past season until a foot injury caused him to miss most of camp and the beginning of the NHL season. He played a few games in Bridgeport before getting the full time callup to the NHL.
Leagues since Drafted: 2
Years from Draft to NHL Appearance: 2
I wanted to finish with Dibo because I thought he was the best example of both the Islanders' patience when it comes to youngsters, and their willingness to use the NHL as a carrot for good play.
Justin DiBenedetto was drafted in the 6th round of the 2008 draft. While his Junior numbers were huge, they were discounted due to playing with Stamkos. The season following being drafted, he proceeded to put up the same point total in a Stamkos-less season for the Sarnia Sting. While promising, DiBo quickly dropped off in his first season at BP in 09-10. His point total was even with enforcer Micheal Haley and defenseman Mark Katic.
This season was more of the same until late Janurary when he exploded with goals. He was rewarded with a short stint in the NHL, annoying everyone he met.
Leagues since Drafted: 2
Years from Draft to NHL Appearance: 3
The Big Picture
In general, other then bluechip prospects, the plan seems to be to give players as much time as they need in JRs/College/Foreign Leagues and then at least one season in the AHL. As we've seen with Rhett Rakhshani, Matt Martin, Jesse Joensuu and Justin DiBenedetto, outstanding play in the AHL is usually rewarded with NHL games.
While we might see Casey Cizikas, Ryan Strome or Kirill Kabanov break into the league with a great camp, the slow but steady pace Snow has taken points to most of the team's prospects being in either the AHL or returned to their Junior teams. Even if Josh Bailey ends up as a bust, Snow and the team have seemed to learn a lesson from his ordeal. Give the kids time.
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I take issue with the following
Only Josh Bailey (due to lack of talent on the team)
I am not a Snow basher, but it seems pretty Machiavellian to use that excuse when he is directly responsible for said lack of talent. You think he could’ve signed any winger to a 1-year contract at $500k to at least keep Bailey’s spot warm. I think an extra year down at the farm would’ve done Bailey good, as evidenced by his play shortly after being sent down and re-called in early/mid-season.
The "farm"
Well, I’m not sure if you’re just using “farm” generally, but of course when Bailey was kept with the club there was no “farm” option — it was either juniors or the NHL — and he was used as a center, not wing, that year.
I didn’t write it, but I didn’t take that part to mean those circumstances absolved Snow of the Bailey situation — just that it was a unique one unlikely to be repeated.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Jun 28, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good point
Tough decision to make with a 20 year old as it was either juniors or NHL.
Want to make clear my issue is with Garth and not the author.
What more did he have to gain in Junior Hockey?
I think this was a big issue regarding Bailey. He would be going back to a dominant junior team with Windsor and would likely pile on the points without really being challenged much. The AHL wasn’t an option. I think one reason why prospects aren’t “rushed” is not to protect them, but to protect the team. We don’t know for sure that rushing prospects hurts there progress and the ‘sink or swim’ approach may be a good approach for some prospects. (I think that this is often true of forwards) Teams don’t rush some players because the poor defensive play of young players can often hurt the team- they are a liability. If your team is in a position where you are not expected to compete and you can afford to grant the young player adequate ice-time I see no problem with a prospect given a shot in the NHL.
by MatthewM11 on Jun 28, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, developmentally, it's impossible to tell
A lot of times it seems they aren’t waiting for skill development or even size but whether a kid has the head to withstand the inevitable setbacks as the former two attributes evolve against manly competition instead of teenagers.
In that respect, Bailey certainly exhibited the head where you’d expect he could handle whatever was thrown at him. Gordon said early on he “wasn’t playing at a junior pace” (meaning he’d sped his game up for the NHL), but clearly as time went on he ran into very passive spells. Tough to say which is the chicken or the egg there.
I honestly don’t fret about it too much because he’s still so young.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
in re: Bailey
I agree with those who thought that he should have been made available to represent Canada at the World Juniors instead of kept around the Island. Sure, he MAY have been injured if he’d gone… or he could have just as easily been injured here, too. What he could NOT do here, that he would have done there, is enjoy representing his country in international competition against kids his own age, where he could just play and let his talents shine.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
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I understand your point, 4PeatSake
(nice screen name btw) and I don’t necessarily disagree with it…..however, even if it is true that by bringing up Bailey too early (which I think he did), by now, shouldn’t he have adjusted already?
When I hear that Bailey is “ruined” cause he was brought up too early, I’m sure that there are cases of players being brought up early and being the better for it later on.
It’s been a few years….he’s had time to adjust….if he can’t adjust because he’s “mentally damaged” from being brought up too early, then maybe he wasn’t a prospect anyway. I fail to believe that he would have scored 30 goals by now if he wasn’t brought up “too early”.
Please note, I’m not taking sides in this argument, just that IF he had skill to begin with, bringing him up too early wouldn’t ruin that skill forever, would it?
Personally, I believe someone on here used the term “steeper curve” to describe the development of his type of skill set, and I’ll buy that with him. Maybe bringing him up early DID ruin his development, but I don’t buy it as gospel.
Proud to root for the Jets, Mets, and Islanders!!!
by CharlieIsles on Jun 28, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
without double checking
I’d say Conolly, Jokinen and Chara. Chara and Jokinen spent sometime in the AHL/IHL but not nearly enough
"I bet Calgary wishes they had a backup goalie as their GM" - Pauly C
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
No way to know how Bailey would’ve developed unless EA Sports develops an alternative universe. My guess is Bailey (in hindsight) would’ve benefitted from more time in Jr. – maybe most of the season with a late call up to LI.
The conventional wisdom also states that D-Men take longer to develop, yet we see AMac, Hamonic and Hillen exceed our expectations at very tender ages.
Alternate Universe '12
unless EA Sports develops an alternative universe.
I would so love this.
Actually, I would really love the Draft Expansion Pack edition that tells you how each team would have drafted if circumstances X and Y were different. Each team having roughly one pick per round really obscures what their real philosophies or at least evaluations are.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I don't nessacerily buy the concept prospects are "ruined" by being rushed
Maybe they will take a confidence hit once they make the NHL and struggle, but if a player is that fragile where a ding in their confidence effects them that much, it would only be a matter of time before some other setback would occur and hurt their confidence even if they were nurtured before being brought up. It’s impossible to prove that rushing prospects hurt them.
I don't view it as a confidence hit
so much as a wasted year for Bails. However, the kid has now been up for 3 years and shown little improvement. If his confidence has taken a hit it was not a direct result of being rushed so much as the lack of visible improvement during 3 years with bigs. I by no means feel it’s time to cut bait.
I think the Bailey decision should’ve factored the following, in order of importance:
1) are the Isles a serious contender
2) is the rookie physically capable of playing in NHL
3) has rookie proven everything at JR level
4) burning a year on 3-yr rookie contract
I feel that 1 (no), 2 (no) and 4 should’ve made Garth’s decision an easy one.
Yeah I agree with this
The comment about confidence was a general comment not directed at Bailey specifically. Those 4 points are exactly what should be consiered when deciding whether to bring up a prospect. In Bailey’s case, the Islanders were not contenders and I think that Bailey had proven everything he needed to in the OHL so the only factors needed to be considered were your second and third factors.
I think Nino is a good sign of the difference between the two teams. Not only did they have a good amount of RWs on the team to begin the year (Parenteau, Comeau, Hunter, Grabner) but they had youngsters who were ready to break through too (Martin, Joensuu).
I took a look at the Centers (Via HockeyDB for position) for that year, you have Park, Weight, Comrie and Hilbert playing most of the season, Nielsen and Thompson playing half a season, Mike Sillingers last year in a 7 game stint and a lot of absolute no ones in Kurtis McLean, Mike Iggulden, Ben Walter and Jeremy Colliton.
With Bailey coming off a 96 point season in JRs, I can see the reasoning behind giving him a jumpstart in the NHL. Was it a mistake at the time? Quite possibly and I do mention that in the end. I don’t think anyone’s been “rushed” in since then except for injury duty. But the reason you give him a chance is that your basically going into the season hoping that Comrie and Weight can carry your offense at Center.
"I bet Calgary wishes they had a backup goalie as their GM" - Pauly C
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
The other thing people always forget about Bailey's rookie year
Is he started that season on injury rehab. He had a training camp injury that put him on the shelf, so he was on the Island rehabbing through all of October and early November, not appearing in his first NHL game until Nov. 11.
In retrospect and before that season began, I definitely favored returning him. But in the circumstances at the time (struggling, injured team, with a center who looked like he was adjusting after two months with the team), I was at least open to them knowing way more about what was right than me. Honestly, I was more worried about burning a year on his deal than I was about it somehow hindering his development.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Good Point re Injury.
Dom- do you recall who’s spot Bailey took when called up?
I know Sillinger was out (and didn't return but briefly around January)
When Bailey stepped in, Martinek, Witt, Meyer and DiPietro were hurt, too. Pretty sure other forward injuries emerged as Bailey neared game 10.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
In defense of Bailey
Lets not forget; he is 21 years old, not 25! He is still a kid, very talented but never-the-less a kid! Before we crucify him and Garth lets wait at least two more years. I for one am not going that route just yet! Players develop at different rate, who is to say he does not come into this year and play lights out. Although he was rushed into the lineup before he was ready, two years of NHL experience can not be underestimated. Lets just wait him out, IMO he will be a good one and part of TEH CORE!!!
We are all Islanders, even if we are in Jersey!
He may top out at 3rd Line
but I think he’d still be a great piece to the puzzle if he and garth can accept that role.
Josh Bailey...
A. Is 21-years-old
B. Was probably brought onto the Islanders too soon.
C. Has been moved from center to wing very often in his young career.
D. Has had nearly everybody on the team as a linemate at one time.*
E. Been expected to generate offense commensurate to a top-10 pick.
F. But was used mainly on the “third line,” which generally means a checking role.
G. Been used in television ads for the team.
H. Been the crux of hypothetical trades by fans for two years, asking for everything from superstars to draft picks.
I. Has had numerous time-consuming injuries.
J. Took a demotion to the AHL in his third year without comment or complaint, because it’s what the team wanted him to do. While in Bridgeport, he performed exceedingly well before coming back to Uniondale.
That last one is my personal favorite, and the reason I’m a fan and want to see him succeed here, in this uniform. I’m not an expert on the guy, but I think that his first three NHL seasons have been less than the idea incubation period for anyone. To get demoted and kick ass for the Bridge without a peep says a lot about him.
I realize that every player is someone’s least favorite player. I’m sure everyone will add their own letter to the list above. But when a guy is this young, I don’t think anyone can just throw up their hands and say, “That’s it! Game over. He’s cooked. Ship him out.” To be brutally honest, that sounds like Milbury-speak to me. Once he gets a defined role he’s comfortable with, I have no doubt Bailey will be part of the team’s core moving forward.
*Note – May be a slight exaggeration.
"It's too bad he lives in the city. He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot" - Mike Milbury on Ziggy Palffy's agent Paul Kraus during Palffy's contract holdout in 1998.
by PGI on Jun 28, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Footnotes
*Note – May be a slight exaggeration.
Not by very much!
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
A) He's 21!!!!!
A
1)Younger then:
Koskinen
Wishart
Rakhshani
Joensuu
Martin
Dibo
Katic
2) same age as Poulin
3) only JT and Hamonic are younger (nino also….. when he makes the team)
I just remember back in the day
everyone wanted more from Bertuzzi, then the isles traded him, and then 2 years later at 24 or 25 he went from a 10-14 goal scorer to 30 or so.
Give him some time, hell compare him to Richards that was just traded from the flyers, he had a couple 10-14 goal years then jumped to 30 when it clicked.
by Ratman44 on Jun 28, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Enough of Bailey
I have a different question from his draft class how many players have participated in as many NHL games? I think the answer is very few.
Grant it I would love to have Tyler Myers instead of Bailey. If we had Myers we may have made the playoffs last season but woulda, coulda, and shoulda…..
Bailey is a kid that is looking to find his game. Some have it immediately and others take time. He shows it in moments that he can play but then he seems confused out there too often. He plays better with a physical wing like Martin.
Martin needs to find his offense game and get out of the trap of being a fighter. He demonstrated offensive skill with the OHL which he needs to show in the big league.
But the real discussion we should be having is the number of young players we do have in our system that have contributed at the NHL level already. It provides hope first that these players will make long term contribution. More importantly it also points out the potential for our other players like Kabonov, Petrov, DeHaan, DeHart, and the new crop of players. It is why so many of us are optimistic regarding the future.
Also, as noted let our young cook because slow and steady will lead us to the playoffs.
Grant it I would love to have Tyler Myers instead of Bailey. If we had Myers we may have made the playoffs last season but woulda, coulda, and shoulda…..
Did Miss Cleo inform you of this? Too hypothetical and dependent on a biased and skewed version of what never happened.
I agree with the rest of what you said.
Hunter said he was just finishing his check.
I like how this was broken down...
It puts the draft into perspective … mind you, this was only a handful of players… and they were drafted at the very start of the re-build. We’ll be even more flush with NHL breakout players when the 2009 and 2010 draftees begin pushing for a spot.
by 19 Isle in NJ 22 on Jun 28, 2011 9:37 PM EDT reply actions
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
