Nino struggling without Johansen - Portland Winterhawks plus/minus WOWY

by BenHasna on May 27, 2011 1:15 PM EDT

The Portland Winterhawks are a very interesting club - just generally due to the wealth of talent they've had on their team over the last few years and of course specifically for all Islanders fans and Swiss thanks to Nino Niederreiter (and Sven Bärtschi). Particularly this season, with two top-5 picks of last year's draft as well as three guys likely to be selected in the 1st round this year, they've been so deep it's tough to tell who's doing what for them, who's driving the bus and who on the other hand might mainly benefit from having all that talent around him. That's why I took a closer look at their plus/minus stats.

Plus/minus is far from a perfect stat of course. Even over the course of a whole season the numbers can be skewed quite a bit due to unconsistent goaltending or (un)lucky shooting, as we saw for the Islanders last season. And just due to the nature of the juniors game this might easily be more of a problem even down there. Also, without having watched any games the numbers are more difficult to interpret in the absence of any advanced stats, such as quality of competition, etc. But still, as they don't track any shot metrics, in order to get an idea of the overall game of the kids, plus/minus is still the best stat available in juniors hockey.

By the way, I'm not generally an expert when it comes to the Winterhawks. So, would be cool to read in the comments from everyone who's seen them play and can add stuff regarding who was used in what kind of roles, etc.

Anyway, some of the results might not mean a whole lot, but others provide a hint at what should be considered when talking about expectations for the future of these kids. Most notably, it looks like Nino Niederreiter has struggled away from Ryan Johansen - in fact the Winterhawks have been outscored marginally over the past two seasons when Nino was on the ice without Johansen.

First of all, a quick look at the Winterhawks' most important players. You can find detailed roster info or traditional stats on the official site.

		birth	Position	NHL Draft
8	Rattie	1993	RW	2011, 1st round
11	Gabriel	1991	LW	signed as free agent by Columbus
14	Cunningham	1990	C	2010, #96 Boston
17	Boychuk	1991	LW	2010, #208 Buffalo
18	Ross	1992	LW	2010, #43 Toronto
19	Johansen	1992	C	2010, #4 Columbus
22	Niederreiter	1992	RW	2010, #5 New York Islanders
27	Bärtschi	1992	LW	2011, 1st round
28	Leipsic	1994	C	2012

2	Rutkowski	1992	D	2010, #137 Colorado
6	Ponich	1991	D	2009, #48 St Louis
7	Morrow	1992	D	2011, 1st round
26	Wotherspoon	1993	D	2011, 2nd round
37	Aronson	1991	D	2010, #78 Nashville
44	Wrenn	1991	D	2009, #43 San Jose
51	Pouliot	1994	D	2012

Time On Ice summary

One thing I've always wondered is how much their coaches juggled lines. Since they don't even track TOI totals in the juniors it's impossible to get an exact messure of how much time certain guys spent with certain other players. But the plus/minus WOWY numbers are a decent approximation. So, I went through all the game reports (regular season and playoffs) and counted how many EV goals happened on either side while a certain player was on the ice and then calculated the fraction of these goals a certain other player was on the ice at the same time. For example, I found that Nino was on for 81 EV goals for and 50 EV goals against (131 in sum). Johansen was on the ice for 86 of these 131 goals, meaning that Nino spent around 0.66 of his time together with Johansen. The table below shows these numbers for all their important players:

		2	7	6	8	11	14	17	18	19	22	26	27	28	37	44	51
8	Rattie	0.32	0.35	0.13	1.00	0.01	0.46	0.06	0.09	0.18	0.04	0.26	0.79	0.13	0.44	0.20	0.24
11	Gabriel	0.39	0.22	0.37	0.02	1.00	0.03	0.27	0.42	0.29	0.27	0.27	0.05	0.03	0.32	0.03	0.27
14	Cunningham	0.26	0.32	0.04	0.70	0.02	1.00	0.07	0.15	0.03	0.14	0.30	0.67	0.03	0.49	0.35	0.21
17	Boychuk	0.32	0.38	0.11	0.12	0.17	0.09	1.00	0.02	0.13	0.12	0.32	0.02	0.36	0.30	0.21	0.29
18	Ross	0.45	0.36	0.18	0.12	0.21	0.14	0.02	1.00	0.57	0.57	0.17	0.03	0.06	0.40	0.16	0.21
19	Johansen	0.40	0.32	0.20	0.21	0.11	0.02	0.08	0.45	1.00	0.57	0.23	0.22	0.04	0.39	0.21	0.19
22	Nino	0.40	0.37	0.10	0.05	0.12	0.12	0.08	0.53	0.66	1.00	0.21	0.12	0.05	0.41	0.25	0.24
27	Bärtschi	0.35	0.28	0.14	0.81	0.02	0.45	0.01	0.02	0.19	0.09	0.25	1.00	0.16	0.41	0.24	0.28
28	Leipsic	0.31	0.34	0.13	0.28	0.03	0.04	0.41	0.09	0.08	0.09	0.29	0.34	1.00	0.29	0.23	0.34

2	Rutkowski	1.00	0.53	0.27	0.33	0.14	0.18	0.17	0.32	0.36	0.31	0.06	0.35	0.15	0.07	0.03	0.05
7	Morrow	0.58	1.00	0.02	0.39	0.08	0.24	0.22	0.27	0.31	0.31	0.10	0.30	0.17	0.11	0.09	0.10
6	Ponich	0.63	0.04	1.00	0.30	0.30	0.07	0.14	0.30	0.42	0.18	0.03	0.32	0.14	0.15	0.07	0.04
26	Wotherspoon	0.08	0.13	0.02	0.38	0.13	0.28	0.24	0.18	0.29	0.23	1.00	0.36	0.19	0.32	0.10	0.33
37	Aronson	0.06	0.10	0.06	0.43	0.11	0.31	0.16	0.27	0.33	0.30	0.21	0.39	0.13	1.00	0.33	0.22
44	Wrenn	0.05	0.14	0.05	0.34	0.02	0.40	0.19	0.19	0.32	0.33	0.12	0.40	0.18	0.58	1.00	0.10
51	Pouliot	0.08	0.14	0.03	0.37	0.14	0.21	0.23	0.23	0.25	0.27	0.34	0.42	0.23	0.35	0.09	1.00

All entries in bold indicate a number bigger than 0.33. So, if you read from the left, for example for Nino, you can see that Rutkowski (2), Morrow (7), Ross (18), Johansen (19) and Aronson (37) were his most frequent line mates. Clearly, Bärtschi and Rattie played together almost exclusively, often centered by Cunningham who joined the Winterhawks later in the season. Ross-Johansen-Nino were together a lot, too, with guys like Gabriel, Boychuk, Leipsic and others rotated into either line.

Plus/minus summary

So, going from how often certain guys played together I went to how well they did when playing together. It's probable that a couple of SH goals entered my data, but pratically I tried to grasp only even-strength goals of 10-11 (regular season and playoffs, excluding empty-net situations). For example, I simply took a look at all EV goals scored when Nino was on and then checked for who was on at the same time. So, Nino was as mentioned on for 81 EV goals for and 50 EV goals against (+31). Johansen was on together with Nino for 58 of Nino's 81 goals for and 28 of his goals against (+30). This means that Nino's plus/minus rating when on without Johansen amounts to +1 (+23/-22), opposed to +30 when on together with Johansen, and thus +31 for him overall.

As it's tough to get a good read on plus/minus numbers with differing totals I calculated goal ratios. In the above example that gives us numbers of 0.62 (Nino overall) - meaning that 0.62 of all goals scored while Nino was on the ice were in Portland's favor - 0.67 (Nino-Johansen together), 0.51 (Nino without Johansen). Before I'll take a closer look at some interesting players, here's the summary of the plus/minus ratings of the player on the left together with the player on top. Entries in bold this time indicate the totals for the respective players.

goal ratio with:

		2	7	6	8	11	14	17	18	19	22	26	27	28	37	44	51
8	Rattie	0.61	0.56	0.64	0.59	1.00	0.60	0.45	0.73	0.59	0.57	0.56	0.59	0.68	0.62	0.68	0.50
11	Gabriel	0.57	0.46	0.64	1.00	0.54	1.00	0.38	0.64	0.71	0.69	0.38	0.67	0.00	0.63	0.50	0.63
14	Cunningham	0.60	0.59	0.40	0.60	1.00	0.59	0.38	0.47	0.75	0.56	0.59	0.64	0.67	0.63	0.65	0.50
17	Boychuk	0.55	0.49	0.50	0.45	0.38	0.38	0.50	0.50	0.67	0.45	0.45	0.00	0.67	0.57	0.47	0.52
18	Ross	0.56	0.65	0.59	0.73	0.64	0.47	0.50	0.62	0.64	0.58	0.57	0.75	0.43	0.60	0.68	0.77
19	Johansen	0.62	0.65	0.74	0.59	0.71	0.67	0.67	0.64	0.66	0.67	0.60	0.58	0.67	0.64	0.66	0.76
22	Nino	0.58	0.59	0.77	0.57	0.69	0.56	0.45	0.58	0.67	0.62	0.52	0.69	0.57	0.63	0.61	0.68
27	Bärtschi	0.63	0.62	0.65	0.59	0.67	0.63	0.00	0.75	0.58	0.69	0.53	0.59	0.59	0.61	0.63	0.48
28	Leipsic	0.60	0.67	0.30	0.68	0.00	0.67	0.67	0.43	0.67	0.57	0.65	0.59	0.59	0.61	0.50	0.56

2	Rutkowski	0.57	0.60	0.59	0.61	0.57	0.60	0.55	0.56	0.62	0.58	0.30	0.63	0.60	0.64	0.60	0.56
7	Morrow	0.59	0.57	0.33	0.55	0.46	0.58	0.49	0.65	0.65	0.59	0.19	0.62	0.67	0.59	0.57	0.44
6	Ponich	0.59	0.33	0.62	0.64	0.64	0.40	0.50	0.59	0.74	0.77	0.50	0.65	0.30	0.82	0.60	1.00
26	Wotherspoon	0.30	0.19	0.50	0.56	0.38	0.58	0.45	0.57	0.60	0.52	0.51	0.53	0.65	0.47	0.50	0.59
37	Aronson	0.64	0.59	0.82	0.62	0.63	0.62	0.57	0.60	0.64	0.63	0.47	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.66	0.63
44	Wrenn	0.60	0.57	0.60	0.68	0.50	0.65	0.47	0.68	0.66	0.61	0.50	0.63	0.50	0.66	0.60	0.40
51	Pouliot	0.56	0.44	1.00	0.50	0.63	0.50	0.52	0.77	0.76	0.68	0.59	0.48	0.56	0.63	0.40	0.57

And here's the summary of the goal ratios of the player on the left when on the ice without the player on top. That's more for those interested in the raw data, though. Detailed analysis will follow below.

goal ratio without:

		2	7	6	8	11	14	17	18	19	22	26	27	28	37	44	51
8	Rattie	0.58	0.61	0.59		0.59	0.59	0.60	0.58	0.59	0.59	0.60	0.61	0.58	0.57	0.57	0.62
11	Gabriel	0.53	0.57	0.49	0.53		0.53	0.60	0.47	0.48	0.49	0.60	0.54	0.56	0.50	0.54	0.51
14	Cunningham	0.59	0.59	0.60	0.56	0.58		0.61	0.61	0.59	0.60	0.59	0.50	0.59	0.56	0.56	0.62
17	Boychuk	0.48	0.51	0.50	0.51	0.53	0.51		0.50	0.48	0.51	0.52	0.51	0.41	0.47	0.51	0.49
18	Ross	0.67	0.60	0.63	0.60	0.61	0.64	0.62		0.60	0.67	0.63	0.62	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.58
19	Johansen	0.68	0.66	0.64	0.68	0.65	0.66	0.66	0.67		0.64	0.68	0.68	0.66	0.67	0.66	0.63
22	Nino	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.62	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.66	0.51		0.64	0.61	0.62	0.61	0.62	0.60
27	Bärtschi	0.58	0.59	0.59	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.60	0.59	0.60	0.58	0.61		0.59	0.58	0.58	0.64
28	Leipsic	0.58	0.55	0.63	0.55	0.60	0.58	0.53	0.60	0.58	0.59	0.56	0.58		0.58	0.61	0.60

2	Rutkowski		0.54	0.57	0.56	0.58	0.57	0.58	0.58	0.55	0.57	0.59	0.55	0.57	0.57	0.57	0.58
7	Morrow	0.53		0.57	0.58	0.58	0.56	0.59	0.54	0.53	0.56	0.61	0.55	0.55	0.56	0.57	0.58
6	Ponich	0.67	0.63		0.61	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.63	0.52	0.58	0.62	0.60	0.67	0.58	0.62	0.60
26	Wotherspoon	0.53	0.56	0.51	0.48	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.49	0.47	0.51		0.49	0.47	0.52	0.51	0.47
37	Aronson	0.61	0.61	0.60	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.62	0.62	0.60	0.60	0.65	0.61	0.61		0.59	0.61
44	Wrenn	0.60	0.60	0.60	0.56	0.60	0.57	0.63	0.58	0.57	0.60	0.61	0.58	0.62	0.52		0.62
51	Pouliot	0.58	0.60	0.56	0.62	0.57	0.59	0.59	0.52	0.51	0.54	0.57	0.64	0.58	0.55	0.59

Nino outscored without Johansen

Here's a summary just for Nino. It's basically the same numbers as above, just arranged a little more neatly.

		TOI	with Nino	without Nino		Nino without…
18	Ross	0.57	0.58	0.67	16.11%	0.66	14.07%
17	Boychuk	0.12	0.45	0.51	11.36%	0.63	39.33%
14	Cunningham	0.14	0.56	0.60	5.95%	0.63	11.30%
19	Johansen	0.57	0.67	0.64	-5.64%	0.51	-24.21%
27	Bärtschi	0.09	0.69	0.58	-14.99%	0.61	-11.46%
11	Gabriel	0.27	0.69	0.49	-28.96%	0.61	-11.46%

2	Rutkowski	0.31	0.58	0.57	-0.74%	0.65	11.90%
44	Wrenn	0.33	0.61	0.60	-1.49%	0.62	2.70%
26	Wotherspoon	0.23	0.52	0.51	-2.53%	0.64	24.24%
37	Aronson	0.30	0.63	0.60	-3.94%	0.61	-3.06%
7	Morrow	0.31	0.59	0.56	-6.13%	0.63	7.15%
51	Pouliot	0.27	0.68	0.54	-20.92%	0.60	-11.43%
6	Ponich	0.18	0.77	0.58	-24.17%	0.60	-21.78%

Reading example: Ross spent 0.57 of his time together with Nino. 0.58 of the goals scored while the two were on together were in Portland's favor. 0.67 of the goals scored when Ross was on without Nino were in Portland's favor, meaning that Portland was 16.11% better when Ross was on the ice without Nino compared to when they were on together. Finally, 0.66 of the goals scored when Nino was on without Ross were scored in Portland's favor, meaning that Portland was 14.07% better when Nino was on the ice without Ross compared to when they were on together.

So, loosley speaking, since both percentage numbers are positive, Portland was best when the two were not on together at the same time. That might have many reasons, though, and doesn't necessarily mean the two had bad chemistry. For example, the goaltending behind them could just have been awful when they were on together, or they could have been used against specifically tough competition.

The most notable result for Nino are certainly the numbers with/without Johansen. As mentioned already, Nino was clearly worse without Johansen (0.51) compared to with Johansen (0.67). We can see that also Johansen suffered slightly from being away from Nino (0.64), but obviously not nearly as much as Nino suffered from being away from Johansen. Again, that might also have to do with things we can't observe, such as goaltending, shooting or quality of competition, but it's an interesting result for sure.

That's why I went back to do the exact same analysis for last season, as well, and added the results to the above numbers. The following numbers therefore include all EV goals in 09-10 and 10-11 (regular season and playoff each).

		TOI	with Nino	without Nino		Nino without…
19	Johansen	0.70	0.63	0.61	-3.17%	0.48	-23.81%

So, over the course of the last two seasons, Portland was marginally outscored (-3, goal ratio 0.48) when Nino was on the ice without Johansen. On the other hand, when Johansen was on without Nino (+21, 0.61), Portland was just about as strong as when Johansen and Nino were on together (+47, 0.63). Again, plus/minus isn't a perfect number and particularly the results for Nino without Johansen can easily be skewed also over the course of two seasons. Then again, the sample is not tiny, consisting of 154 games and 254 total goals for Nino overall. And we can observe the same trend in every period, thus 09-10 as well as 10-11 and regular season as well as playoff. So, it's maybe not an incredibly strong result, but I would definitely conclude that Nino has benefited much more from playing together with Johansen than the other way around.

Now, that obviously doesn't mean Nino can't have a good career. This here is limited to plus/minus ratings and some of Nino's (other) numbers and just generally his assets still look very good. So, a lot is still possible for him, but I'm not quite sure his overall game ever will be as good as advertised. However, more importantly, I'm not sure returning to Portland next season would be such a bad thing. I guess that would help his overall game and, assumingly without Johansen, he could take on an (even more) important role there indeed.

Johansen driving the bus

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Johansen	without Johansen		Johansen without…
27	Bärtschi	0.19	0.58	0.60	3.96%	0.68	18.22%
8	Rattie	0.18	0.59	0.59	-0.37%	0.68	13.68%
18	Ross	0.57	0.64	0.60	-6.51%	0.67	5.81%
22	Nino	0.66	0.67	0.51	-24.21%	0.64	-5.64%
17	Boychuk	0.13	0.67	0.48	-28.75%	0.66	-1.43%
11	Gabriel	0.29	0.71	0.48	-32.54%	0.65	-7.65%

37	Aronson	0.33	0.64	0.60	-7.36%	0.67	3.51%
2	Rutkowski	0.36	0.62	0.55	-12.31%	0.68	9.37%
44	Wrenn	0.32	0.66	0.57	-12.61%	0.66	0.32%
7	Morrow	0.31	0.65	0.53	-19.18%	0.66	1.09%
26	Wotherspoon	0.29	0.60	0.47	-21.57%	0.68	12.54%
6	Ponich	0.42	0.74	0.52	-29.40%	0.64	-14.23%
51	Pouliot	0.25	0.76	0.51	-32.56%	0.63	-16.41%

See Nino's section for how to read this table, etc.

There's no doubt Johansen's been driving the bus for this team. As you can see in the column "...without Johansen", being away from Johansen hurt almost every player's numbers. Johansen on the other hand has been very consistent (see "Johansen without") no matter who he was on with. With 92 scoring points in 63 games he was terrific also in that area and should have a pretty nice career ahead of him.

Ross not suffering as much as Nino

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Ross	without Ross		Ross without…
14	Cunningham	0.15	0.47	0.61	30.10%	0.64	36.90%
22	Nino	0.53	0.58	0.66	14.07%	0.67	16.11%
19	Johansen	0.45	0.64	0.67	5.81%	0.60	-6.51%
11	Gabriel	0.42	0.64	0.47	-26.47%	0.61	-3.97%

6	Ponich	0.30	0.59	0.63	6.18%	0.63	5.98%
2	Rutkowski	0.32	0.56	0.58	4.87%	0.67	20.90%
37	Aronson	0.27	0.60	0.62	1.86%	0.63	4.30%
26	Wotherspoon	0.18	0.57	0.49	-13.38%	0.63	10.25%
44	Wrenn	0.19	0.68	0.58	-15.19%	0.61	-11.16%
7	Morrow	0.27	0.65	0.54	-17.83%	0.60	-7.46%
51	Pouliot	0.23	0.77	0.52	-32.81%	0.58	-24.74%

Unlike Nino, Ross didn't suffer too much from being without Johansen. But again, that doesn't mean he's a better player or something. Might just be fluke first of all and then Nino is surely ahead of Ross in other areas of the game, such as goal scoring.

Bärtschi pretty consistent

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Bärschi	without Bärtschi		Bärtschi without
19	Johansen	0.22	0.58	0.68	18.22%	0.60	3.96%
8	Rattie	0.79	0.59	0.61	4.12%	0.63	6.48%
28	Leipsic	0.34	0.59	0.58	-1.30%	0.59	0.31%
22	Nino	0.12	0.69	0.61	-11.46%	0.58	-14.99%
14	Cunningham	0.67	0.64	0.50	-21.43%	0.56	-11.40%

51	Pouliot	0.42	0.48	0.64	33.94%	0.64	33.43%
37	Aronson	0.39	0.61	0.61	-0.52%	0.58	-5.58%
44	Wrenn	0.40	0.63	0.58	-6.67%	0.58	-6.46%
26	Wotherspoon	0.36	0.53	0.49	-7.74%	0.61	14.82%
6	Ponich	0.32	0.65	0.60	-8.00%	0.59	-10.29%
7	Morrow	0.30	0.62	0.55	-11.60%	0.59	-5.13%
2	Rutkowski	0.35	0.63	0.55	-13.02%	0.58	-8.06%

Bärtschi, discussed around here last week, is obviously not on the level of Johansen, but has some remarkably consistent numbers for a rookie playing the first season in North America. It's tough to compare him with Nino for many reasons, but Bärtschi however wasn't hurt by being away from Johansen at all. The addition of Cunningham to his line seemed to be quite a big help, however. Anyway, as this scout here indicates he might develop into a very fine all-around player.

...Rattie too

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Rattie	without Rattie		Rattie without
19	Johansen	0.21	0.59	0.68	13.68%	0.59	-0.37%
17	Boychuk	0.12	0.45	0.51	11.36%	0.60	32.27%
27	Bärtschi	0.81	0.59	0.63	6.48%	0.61	4.12%
14	Cunningham	0.70	0.60	0.56	-7.62%	0.59	-3.28%
18	Ross	0.12	0.73	0.60	-17.67%	0.58	-21.10%
28	Leipsic	0.28	0.68	0.55	-19.08%	0.58	-15.09%

51	Pouliot	0.37	0.50	0.62	23.29%	0.62	24.24%
7	Morrow	0.39	0.55	0.58	5.57%	0.61	11.35%
37	Aronson	0.43	0.62	0.61	-1.71%	0.57	-7.60%
6	Ponich	0.30	0.64	0.61	-4.48%	0.59	-7.99%
2	Rutkowski	0.33	0.61	0.56	-8.17%	0.58	-3.69%
26	Wotherspoon	0.38	0.56	0.48	-13.60%	0.60	8.84%
44	Wrenn	0.34	0.68	0.56	-17.13%	0.57	-15.53%

Rattie, listed as #1 among RW in the upcoming draft, has played almost exclusively with Bärtschi and their numbers indeed look similar. Both have been good also away from each other - even a bit better actually by these numbers. Given Bärtschi's less experienced and has collected more points it looks alright Rattie will probably be selected after Bärtschi in this year's NHL draft.

Morrow mediocre without stars

EV 10-11 (regular season and playoff).

		TOI	with Morrow	without Morrow		Morrow without…
11	Gabriel	0.22	0.46	0.57	22.46%	0.58	24.88%
8	Rattie	0.35	0.56	0.61	9.55%	0.58	3.87%
22	Nino	0.37	0.59	0.63	7.15%	0.56	-6.13%
17	Boychuk	0.38	0.49	0.51	4.75%	0.59	21.50%
19	Johansen	0.32	0.65	0.66	1.09%	0.53	-19.18%
14	Cunningham	0.32	0.59	0.59	-0.82%	0.56	-5.31%
27	Bärtschi	0.28	0.62	0.59	-5.13%	0.55	-11.60%
18	Ross	0.36	0.65	0.60	-7.46%	0.54	-17.83%
28	Leipsic	0.34	0.67	0.55	-17.92%	0.55	-18.08%

51	Pouliot	0.14	0.44	0.60	36.22%	0.58	32.93%
44	Wrenn	0.14	0.57	0.60	5.81%	0.57	-0.87%
2	Rutkowski	0.53	0.60	0.54	-9.28%	0.53	-11.62%

Joe Morrow is an offensive defenseman projected to be selected mid-1st round to late-1st round in this year's draft . His numbers here are good, but not great. He seemed to play a lot on the 2nd pair with Rutkowski and had good numbers with him indeed as well as with the Johansen line, but did not quite manage to keep this level when on without Johansen or with other D partners. Listed as number 6 among defensemen he's certainly a good player, but not sure the narrative of him having been overshadowed by all the talent on Portland's team is correct. It might rather be that he's listed a little high exactly because of that talent around him.

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Comments

Great Work.

Very interesting analysis. Out of curiosity, I looked up the scouting report in Hockey Prospectus 2010’s top 50 prospects for Johansen, to see if a similar player was on the Isles for Nino to fit with:

Johansen is…a big playmaking center. [He] is a good skater who can carry the puck up the ice with speed, using his frame extremely well to protect the puck when he carries it into the zone. In the offensive zone, Johansen has great awareness and vision and sets up his linemates regularly with quick, crisp, passing; however, at times, he can overpass. He goes to the net to score cheap goals, though he still plays a solid defensive game and can be used in all situations.

That’s the type of player A team would hope would make all of his linemates better, and as you noted, it appears to be the case with Portland. Unfortunately, no one really fits that mold on the Islanders right now (There’s no current BIG playmaking center on the team).

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.

by garik16 on May 27, 2011 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

Reason

to draft Couturier?

by afrosupreme on May 27, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Although

that reminds me of this article Dom linked a while ago. Maybe the important part about Johansen’s profile is a center who carries the puck, draws a crowd, and has good vision, rather than the size aspect:

"He likes to cut across the middle from the backhand to his forehand but whether or not he’ll be able to do that at the next level is another thing," says Green. "I think if he could ever find a centre that has a lot of speed through the middle and can really move the puck around, that’s the picture perfect world for Nino. When he gets a centre that can attract people to the middle and open up lanes for him, he’s pretty deadly because has a really hard shot."

by afrosupreme on May 27, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

thanks for quoting this

That’s definitely by far the best article I’ve read about Nino.

Given speed is not at all Couturier’s strength I’m not sure how well they’d work together. However, I don’t think they consider drafting based on what might be a need for Nino…

by BenHasna on May 27, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Huberdeau fits the bill. lol

by OzzyFan on May 27, 2011 3:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

yeah, perhaps

I don’t know much about Huberdeau at all. Actually, it would be cool if he turned out to be a great fit because I still don’t really have someone I absolutely would want to be targeted by Garth at #5. Given he’s reportedly played on the wing I don’t know what he’d bring in the (near) future.

Also, I found that he shot at 21.3% during the regular season and even at 25.4% during the playoffs. I guess it is possible for highly talented guys to shoot at around 20% in the QJMHL, but Huberdeau was previously not even known for being a very good shooter and thus I’m not sure the goalscoring he’s provided this year reflects his true talent. Moreover, Saint John’s shooting was generally suspiciously high (12.94%, league average was 11.32%). So, maybe 95 instead of 105 points would have been fair for Huberdeau this season – still a fantastic number of course.

by BenHasna on May 27, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting find.

Maybe his goalscoring abilities are overstated, maybe he got hot at the right times, maybe he worked on his shot a lot during the season. The scouting reports and videos show he does have a quick shot and highlight reel hands, so who knows. I think he’s got the hands to put away 20-25goals repeatedly at the nhl level while accumulating a lot of assists. Here’s some videos:

(He’s #11)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8n8sc7gJe4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s20c417E7Cs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZHTN4UNQEU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpXZCtrFaTE

Compilation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCN34D02V24

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, he’s a good player, but this piece here got me thinking. Due to a rather easy schedule for Saint John Huberdeau played more games against weaker sides and indeed did get a good part of his points against those teams. Not saying he would be a bad pick, but yeah, it’s so tough to find someone convincing you in every aspect.

Also, even more interesting is the section about faceoffs in that piece linked above. Huberdeau being absolutely terrible in that aspect (40.71% this year on 280 faceoffs, 45.20% on 221 last year) might be the main reason why he’s been used on the wing a lot. No idea how Bailey’s or JT’s numbers were in juniors, but if you’re that uncompetitive in the faceoff circle against juniors how much of an issue is that going to be in the NHL… Sure, he can improve it and stuff, but I guess he’s almost guranteed to play on the wing the first few years in the NHL.

That might not necessarily diminish his chances to be picked by Garth, though. I think Garth is still sold on Bailey and reluctant to pick another center. Then again, LW is of course not really a big need for them, either…

by BenHasna on May 28, 2011 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not thrilled with Huberdeau either

and you just strengthened that opinion. This has me hoping they take Hamilton at this point b/c I don’t trust many of the forwards. What don’t you like about Couturier?

Hamilton or Mika Z (man crush in full effect). Mika, b/c he was over in the SEL and was playing as a 17 year old, might be undervalued just a bit as a 7-10 pick but might be the most talented forward in the draft.

This of course is based on the three YouTube clips I’ve seen, his stats as a 16-18 year old in the SEL and a couple of scouting reports, haha.

"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington

by Pauly C on May 28, 2011 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Mika Z is underrated, but hard to rate because of the league separations.

But he is big, has touted offensive hands, is above average defensively, and plays a power forward game(with the ability to play center). He could easily be the steal of the draft depending on how far he drops.

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I've moved toward Hamilton for the same reasons

I don’t really trust Huberdeau. Just feels like another Q scorer who won’t translate as anything truly special in the NHL. To be fair, none of the forwards are locks to be stars (even RNH has reasons for doubt), but all the two-way and hockey intelligence talk about Couturier makes me think he’d be a more useful NHL forward even if he’s not a scoring star.

/include usual lack of first-hand info caveat

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no hole is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on May 28, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I think he could easily become a winger, and by no means do I think he is better then Couturier.

I’m just saying the skillset is there offensively/defensively for him to be a top 6 forward. Number comparisons are hard because of the leagues, but just looking at this kid’s hands and touted 2-way abilities(not as great as couturier’s), I think he is going to be a solid top 6 forward in the nhl sooner or later. But we really don’t have a big need for lws unless Comeau plays his correct side, lol.

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks

Going from here it indeed looks a bit like making a point for drafting Couturier – which I definitely didn’t intend to do beacuse I don’t like Couturier very much, heh.

However, definitely a good point that the Isles might not have the kind of center Nino would thrive playing with most. Then again, definitely need to see more of Nino with various centers/line mates to get a clear picture of what would suit him best. However, just generally, Nino needs an excellent center and not sure the Isles will be able to provide that for him next season…

by BenHasna on May 27, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

To me

this is another reason to give Nino a shot on the top line with JT. I think JT does do a good job at drawing defenders and finding his wingers. And I think we’re stronger overall with PAP on the third or fourth line.

by afrosupreme on May 28, 2011 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know

The support he’d get from JT in the NHL would be much, much lower than what he got from Johansen in the juniors. However, I don’t think this here goes quite as far as to tell which center would work best with Nino. We don’t know Johansen very well and especially don’t know anything about the other centers Nino played with. Though WOWY is generally about chemistry and stuff I think this one here is more about the big picture. About Johansen being a more complete, further developed player than Nino, about Nino not having got the same results away from Johansen and thus maybe about Nino not being quite the force some envision him to be. However, most of all it might show that there’s still things Nino could learn at the juniors level. Although he’s surely had an important role already, and of course has been strong indeed, maybe dominating on his own on both sides of the puck is something he hasn’t done, yet.

I guess he has a good shot at making the team with a good camp, but I don’t think sending him back one more time is totally out of question and might help him, JT as well as the Islanders’ playoff hopes more than putting him on JT’s wing in his rookie season. I’m not really favoring either at this point, though, will be fun to watch him in September.

by BenHasna on May 28, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

This makes me rethink the Nino 2011-12 question

I just assume the Isles will keep him because they gave him 9 last year and he scored so much this year. I think I still assume that. But if Johansen is helping goose Nino’s play that much, they might find the same flaws/vulnerabilities in camp that they saw last October.

Then again, different coach this year, too. (Not meaning to open that can of worms; just that Capuano may see/use Nino differently.)

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no hole is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on May 28, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I somehow do still assume that, too. Garth’s quote in this article is quite interesting – I don’t know how to read it.

“He’s had an outstanding season in Portland,” Snow said last Wednesday at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. "He can only play in one of two places (next season) — either with us here on the island, or back to juniors. He’s one of the leaders on that team. We feel he’d probably be one of the top or the top pick in this year’s draft and he missed it by about seven days. We feel he’s gonna push hard for a spot on our team.

He obviously is saying nice things about Nino here and that he feels Nino’s gonna push hard for a spot on the team. And the fact that he mentions it’s either on the island or back to juniors might hint at him feeling Nino might not be quite ready, but would still be better off in the NHL compared to spending another whole season in Portland. Then again, why mention it if sending him back one more time wasn’t a real possibility. However, I guess the decision is more open than some might think.

And there’s gonna be some competition. As you mention below, what’s changed from last year. Well, Schremp is gone, on the other hand the top 8 are much more established now. And I’m pretty sure they’ll sign a couple of Ward/Goc-type players. Maybe some not quite that complete versions and thus more guys for the 4th line, but still guys who in October probably will be better players overall than Nino indeed.

And I think it’s not unlikely they’ll find the same flaws in his game indeed. Some sure will say the simplified approach will help him to adjust, that’s possible, but on the other hand, as we noted, he was ineffective when not directly involved in the play and I assume this aspect of the game has become more important for them lately. Just like the quick transition (through the neutral zone), where I thought his passing was really bad in the 9 games last season. So, similar to Bailey, at least on the defensive side of the puck I’m not sure a more passive approach will help him.

So, for me it all comes down to where he can improve these things best. That’s a really tough question, though. If Garth thinks he’d be served best up with the big guys, then he’s probably right. On the other hand, it doesn’t look like Nino’s played a perfect game down there…

by BenHasna on May 29, 2011 5:01 AM EDT up reply actions

"where he can improve these things best"

Me, too, and I figure that’s what they must be thinking too. Maybe those quotes indicate it’s a more open question than I thought. Also: He’s doing skating lessons this summer, so the variables can change even between the end of his WHL season and camp.

This is why I’m always open to the 9-game NHL trial. It doesn’t cost you anything (in terms of contract/control…but obviously it could cost you an on-ice mistake/loss) and is probably the closest you’ll get to a real trial to determine whether a player can make the jump.

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no hole is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on May 29, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Going to be interesting for sure

to see how it all pans out.

Couple things.

The support he’d get from JT in the NHL would be much, much lower than what he got from Johansen in the juniors.

Sure, that’s true, but it’s likely true of just about any center in the NHL short of Crosby. But I still think it would make sense to put him in the best situation to succeed rather than one hoping to limit his mistakes. He’s not going to be able to do the things his does well on the fourth line.

But it definitely is a fair point that he could use more seasoning. That Garth quote is interesting, especially mentioning how close he was to being in this year’s draft. Because we probably wouldn’t have the same expectations as fans that he was a near sure thing to make it this year if he hadn’t done the nine game stint last year.

And to that point, I don’t think fan expectations are going to play a small role in this. I’m sure they were part of the decision to show everybody the shiny new toy for nine games last year. And if he’s going to help sell tickets and jerseys next year then I think that’s going to push him toward the NHL if it’s a borderline decision.

by afrosupreme on May 29, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Expectations

Because we probably wouldn’t have the same expectations as fans that he was a near sure thing to make it this year if he hadn’t done the nine game stint last year.

Yeah, it’s funny I’m probably guilty of that (although I was thinking of Okposo, Bailey and even CDH’s first camp), but I won’t be disheartened if he plays nine games next season and is then sent down.

That said, I prefer players on the cusp getting that free nine-game trial. It’s got to be better for evaluation and better for showing the player just how different the game is at this level and thus what he needs to work on.

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no hole is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on May 29, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Bailey is a playmaker

At least he is when he has players who can finish the play. I think Nino will work well with Bailey. He needs a guy who will charge the net. Being stuck with a floater like RSH really hurt his game. COZO had good success with Bailey but mostly on plays where he was charging the net. I’m not saying his less than stellar stats were not his fault; he certainly deserves SOME of the blame. But I think he would benefit greatly from a player like Nino on his wing (and Nino would likely be improved in the bargain as well).

Vote Yes on August 1st.

by Anarcurt on May 27, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Bailey is supposedly a playmaker.

Hasn’t been a success on that yet.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.

by garik16 on May 27, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Fire Josh Bailey!

by AP77 on May 27, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

He has the ability and hasnt done much with it yet.

I hope he can find his game this year…

by KO21 on May 28, 2011 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Give him a break

Josh Bailey should be fine with some decent wingers, bailey and schemp had no chemistry at all. Give Bailey nino or KO and i think he would be do well. But, with guys like rob schremp, JJ and matt martin he really had no help but comeau. Even tho it was a small sample size he was nasty in the ahl. He put up better ppg ratios then guys like filotav and kadri. If he gets more confidence and some better wingers he will flourish He will be the number 2/3 center we need just give it time.

by beastrt on May 28, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Yes, time he needs, and time he has got. 211 NHL games is nothing to scoff at.

Sure, Bailey has his best year in 09/10 while playing the majority of his time with Okposo, but who honestly wouldn’t? Okposo is the best defensive forward on our team and has solid offensive abilties.

My main point is, you “expect” a 2nd line center to be more then a complimentary player that plays well when given great forwards to play with (Okposo/Nino/ or even a 24 goals/yr scorer in Comeau last year). A 2nd line forward is the guy who is supposed to make his linemates better, not rely on them for his production and game.

If you were to ask an Isles fan today if they think Bailey is their future 2nd line center, they should say or be leaning towards no. Bailey has been a faceoff taking nightmare recently, Bailey hasn’t made his linemates noticably better in except a handful of games, Bailey has been incredibly inconsistent, and Bailey was the worst corsi forward we had last year regularly in the top 9 in his 3rd full nhl season. And the faceoff issues is likely one of the reasons Gordon didn’t play him at center, which is definitely something to consider if he can’t better his faceoff takaing abilities.

Right now, the question isn’t is Bailey gonna be our 2nd liner center, the question is can Bailey be a solid 3rd liner? That’s the question right now because at the age of 21 and in his 3rd nhl season he proved he isn’t capable of that yet. One step at a time, but to say Bailey hasn’t disappointed so far as a projected 2-way top 6 center is an understatement.

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Call me optimistic

but I still believe in this kid…Bailey has shown some glimpses of brilliance, There were short stints where he was our best player on the ice. I believe its all in his head right now and that stems from the way the Isles messed around with him. He didn’t get the chance to develop in the minors and thats a serious issue, IMHO. If you’re not a #1 overall such as the JT’s, Stamkos’s, Coutures, Skinners, Crosbys, Ovys etc, etc, then you don’t belong in the NHL as a teenager. The other problem was that the Isles didn’t allow him to just develop at his natural position. If he wasn’t going to get the chance to grow in the NHL as a center then he shouldn’t have been in the NHL. The fact that he gets the 3rd rate forwards to play with also is a determent…JT only plays with the best guys we have to help him succeed. Bailey is put in with guys that are either fill ins from the AHL or experimental guys like RSH.

by KO21 on Jun 2, 2011 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This year is going to be very very important for Bailey. Yes, JT plays with the best guys, but he also plays much harder competition.

Sure, he’s been playing with Schremp and Joensuu mostly for the last year, but he’s also been playing with Comeau, whom is a points better corsi player then Bailey, thus helping him/his numbers instead of hurting them, and having Bailey’s “play” pull Comeau’s corsi down. Then there is the competition. Bailey is playing against 3rd line players. “IF” Bailey turns the corner, he no longer plays against the Zubrus’s, C.Kelly’s, Talbot’s, or Powe’s like he did on the 3rd line like he has now. He has to play against the Lecavalier’s, Briere’s, J.Staal’s, P.Bergeron’s. and Arnott’s of the nhl then, which is a hell of a lot more difficult of a task.

It’s hard to be optimistic given everything we’ve seen so far from Bailey. Yes, Bailey has carried the team before, but carrying the team for a 5gm stretch and a game here or there while being heavily inconsistent and underachieving the other 70gms of the season gets you nowhere. Remember he stepped up “mostly” when key forwards went down(Tavares concussion, KO hurt then, etc). If this is a spotlight/mental thing and he can’t get out of it ever, then we are screwed. If it’s not, then he can be a good 3rd liner one day(let’s keep the 2nd liner stuff as a dream right now, because he is that far away). Even Schremp, who we condemn, out performed him offensively this year while he was here and was a lot better on faceoffs (but was a detriment defensively).

I hope Bailey turns it around to, because he is still fairly young and has a year to 2 to prove himself before he is declared a bust by most. It’s really hard to be optimistic with how bad he was last year, but we definitely shouldn’t give up hope yet.

by OzzyFan on Jun 2, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I still have a gut feeling that he will be what we hoped..

If he can get himself focused enough.

by KO21 on Jun 2, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

KO fits that description pretty well

by KO21 on May 28, 2011 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Wow Ben, going all out

Really interesting. Thanks for digging this up. I honestly didn’t even realize this was available for WHL.

This has been a nagging question for me because of how deep Portland is, and I know I’ve read their lines changed somewhat midseason (partly because of guys who were away at the WJC).

I don’t think the Johansen part is surprising: There’s a good reason he was selected before Nino (though it was a bit of surprise that both were selected as early as they were). I remember reading early last season that when scouts were checking out this hot Swiss kid in Portland, their eyes were opened because the center he was playing with looked even better.

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no hole is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on May 27, 2011 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

Johansen

Yeah, true. Last year at the draft I had no idea who the better player was or who might have benefited more from playing with the other. Nino was hyped a little more ahead of the draft, so I was somewhat surprised Johansen went as early as #4, but it definitely looks like he deserved it. I tried to watch Johansen carefully at the U20 Worlds this year and I thought he was very strong indeed, even Canada’s best player in my opinion. And certainly from there I figured he might be the one driving the bus in Portland and that he’ll however be a great NHLer one day.

by BenHasna on May 27, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I should add that I was surprised by Johansen's high selection too

Did not expect it, but in retrospect with what I’d read it made sense and had me expecting that this year, Johansen would be the bus driver.

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no hole is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on May 28, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

RUH ROH

by AP77 on May 27, 2011 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

Great job as always Ben.

And as others said, this was somewhat expected. Probably not the degree we are seeing, but expected none the less. We don’t have corsi here or quality of competition ans similar stuff(do we have defensive linemates for nino with/without RJ? I’m on my phone so excuse me if I missed that). I do expect nino’s numbers to be worse without him, but not sure this bad, but possibly, who knows. This is somewhat expected though. Good job.

by OzzyFan on May 27, 2011 3:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

defensive line mates?

Do you mean defenders or defensive forwards complemeting the duo of Johansen and Nino? I guess the latter – but I have no idea who the defensive forwards are on that team, heh. I don’t know for example if they had a 3rd line consisting of checking forwards, but I guess that’s pretty rare on that level. Mostly, the stars are good enough to take on everybody and often the 3rd and 4th liners might be younger guys who are used against similar players and not against the toughest competition.
Going from there, I think being away from Johansen didn’t mean playing against tougher competition. Johansen was one of the best player in the league, if not the best – I doubt Portland maximized their potential by not giving the tougest assignments to Johansen. But yeah, that’s just me speculating… I guess, if anything, it’s unlucky shooting/goaltending which explain a part of the difference.

by BenHasna on May 27, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, combo of both great d-men and defensive-forwards. But yeah, really hard to find the answer to it. lol

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

One other thing.

I remember nino had a slow start for xgms readjusting to the whl after his 9gm tryout in the nhl. If he wasn’t playing with RJ for a larger portion of time earlier on in the season, that would make sense and help explain the numbers more.

by OzzyFan on May 27, 2011 3:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Course you run into cause and effect questions there:

Did Nino readjust so well eventually to the WHL just because it took time, or because he was put with Johansen?

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.

by garik16 on May 27, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Very true.

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

One other other thing

Towards the season’s end/playoffs, Johansen was scoring lots of goals with Nino getting the primary assist. Perhaps Nino’s effectiveness suffered cuz he didn’t have his guy to set up rather than finish from?

I’d look into it more but I’m at a bar. Anyone?…Bueller?

"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)

by Bryan2112 on May 27, 2011 8:24 PM EDT reply actions

lol. Interesting. I personally think it's a combo of things. Nothing to really worry about if worry at all about just by looking at the possible excuses list. But who really knows.

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Difference Might Be That Nino is a Winger, Johansen a Center

Since Johansen is a center, it might matter less who he plays with on a talented team since centers have more responsibility. On the other hand, as a winger, Nino’s ability to get the puck might suffer more with a player of lesser stature.

by rmblifn on May 28, 2011 1:06 AM EDT reply actions

And another possible reason, lol. Yeah, there are a ton of non-worrisome reasons of why this could be. Hopefully it's one of or a comination of those.

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

There definitely are a lot of factors which might contribute to the difference. But I’m not sure the picture gets any clearer if we try to explain something sketchy by something at least as sketchy. That’s just generally never working very well.

Anyway, Ross, Bärtschi and Rattie are wingers, too, and they all haven’t suffered as much as Nino. Again, doesn’t tell us Nino is the weakest player of this group of course, he easily might just have been the one struck by bad luck. But the fact that he’s a winger however doesn’t explain a lot in my opinion.

The thing mentioned by Bryan2112: That was true especially towards the end of the playoffs, not much at all towards the end of the regular season, though. Johansen scored five goals with the primary assist going to Nino in the last around dozen games of the playoffs. But I don’t see how that has anything to do with plus/minus ratings or especially with the fact that Nino’s struggled without Johansen.

The thing mentioned by you, OzzyFan, above: I can’t tell exactly how the line combinations were there when Nino came back to Portland. But in his 3rd and 4th games back he must have played quite a bit with Johansen indeed because they went +3/-0 in these two games together.

So, please keep the suggestions coming. But so far, nothing’s convinced me, heh. That doesn’t mean I believe there’s nothing there at all. I’m pretty sure there is something there explaining a part of the difference. But I don’t think we can observe it.
The worrying aspect for me is the fact that the picture has been the same for two years no matter how you slice it. In 09-10 as well as in 10-11, in the regular season as well as in the playoffs and most importantly it’s always been affected at both ends. Portland doesn’t score as often when Nino is on without Johansen – and at the same time concede more often when Nino is on without Johansen. (Of course there might still be unlucky goaltending/shooting or something else involved).

But at the end, I don’t want anyone to be worried too much. I just generally think many assessments of Nino haven’t been very honest. How many articles similar to the one linked above by afrosupreme have we seen (and how much similar quotes from coaches/scouts)? Not many because it’s always been about how skilled he is, how physical he plays, how hard he works, etc. Even Garth went that route last October when his point was there’d just be no room on the Isles’ top9 this season (but in fact Nino just was far from ready for any NHL duty).
I don’t question these things mentioned, his skills and work ethic, etc. at all, but I just think a lot of points have been left out in the discussion about Nino and the expectations are too high as a consequence. Not saying that’s going to hurt his future, but it’s not going to help him, either, I guess.

by BenHasna on May 28, 2011 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Completely fair.

Just to throw some more possible ideas out there:
-Could be a confidence thing(Nino being more confident with RJ thne others or opposing players being more confident with RJ off the ice)
-Could be Nino overworking/trying to do too much and creating mistakes without RJ on his line
-Definitely has to do with Johansen’s abilities of being a better goalscoring threat then anyone other then nino on the team(and RJ’s passing abilities too)
-Could be because Nino isn’t as good of a set-up man as the other RW’s RJ plays with(ex:Rattie)
-Could be because RJ plays with better quality of linemates. When I look in depth here it makes sense. RJ spends a lot of time with Rattie and Bartschi, while Nino spends no time with Rattie and minimal time with Bartschi, when it is easily argued that they are the best forwards in the team not named(on the 1st line) Ross/Johansen/Nino.

by OzzyFan on May 28, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Even Garth went that route last October when his point was there’d just be no room on the Isles’ top9 this season (but in fact Nino just was far from ready for any NHL duty).

Heh, I forgot about that rationale. (I seem to forget many things.) Looking at the roster for next season, what’s changed?

I suppose saying you can’t break the top 9 is a gentler way of saying you’re not ready for the NHL, but…

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no hole is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on May 28, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions

AP77

Do you read alot of cryptic rennaisance writers? The reason I ask is that most of your comments, for example “RUH OH” relate to someone who is trying to stir the pot without giving informative analysis. Garik at least tries to back up his skepticism with facts. This was a great FANPOST but next year we all had envisioned NN on the 3rd line chipping between 12-18 goals. With sound defensive responsibility I would sign up for that right now. I don’t see this as a problem at all. If the conclusion of this article is that NN stats are inflated due to Johansen then Nino was drafted as a reach and he could potentially BUST. Don’t see it that way. He will provide what a rookie should provide with 3rd line minutes and maybe occasional PP2 time. Good pick by Garth. I would have picked Fowler last year b/c we are drafting defense this year.

by elway76 on May 30, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

He's a pessimistic fan, but you have to learn when he's speaking the truth or being sarcastic.

This one I’m pretty sure is sarcasm.

by OzzyFan on May 30, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

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1979-80

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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.

The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.

1980-81

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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.

Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.

1981-82

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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.

A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.

1982-83

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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.

Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.

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Nino struggling without Johansen - Portland Winterhawks plus/minus WOWY

Time On Ice summary

Plus/minus summary

Nino outscored without Johansen

Johansen driving the bus

Ross not suffering as much as Nino

Bärtschi pretty consistent

...Rattie too

Morrow mediocre without stars

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