Anyone interested in the fate of the Islanders in Nassau and Mangano's proposed arena plan can't miss Chris Botta's interview with Nassau County Legislature minority leader (and Democrat) Diane Yatauro. It's a great, intelligent and informative interview with someone who will have a critical say in whether the plan goes forward. Despite Republican control of the legislature, rules require a supermajority for passage of bonding authorizations. Accordingly, assuming the Republicans line up behind Mangano, support from Democrats is a must, and as their leader, Yatauro's views can't be ignored.
The key takeaway from the interview is that the Yatauro is not happy with an August referendum and strongly prefers a vote in November on Election Day. While this is sensible in certain respects, as Chris makes clear in the interview, this makes passage a lot less likely. An August 1 vote will merely require an mobilization effort by an already highly motivated fanbase (and their spouses, parents, adult children, etc.) and union members. On a Monday in middle of the summer, this should be sufficient for passage. Election Day is a different ballgame and will require, to a much larger extent, an appeal by the Islanders and Mangano to the general electorate. It is still an off year election this November (who or what is up for election this November?), so high turnout is unlikely but there are a fair number of people who habitually vote on Election Day and will no doubt focus on a $400M bond issue.
The seriousness of Yatauro's opposition was not unequivocal, but when pushed by Chris she made it clear that should the vote go forward and pass on August 1, members might feel justified in looking at the low turnout numbers and concluding that they are free to ignore the results when the issue goes before the legislature.