How are our playoff picks doing? Plus: Late Power Rankings perspective
by Dominik on Apr 19, 2011 6:30 AM EDT
in This, That & What-Not
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I fear there has been a security breach, and Mrs. Lighthouse has gotten to the NHL schedule makers: There are only two playoff games on the docket tonight. That almost implies a "night for us" -- at least before the first game (CHI-VAN) kicks off at 8 p.m. EDT, followed by SJ-LA at 10:30.
With almost every series* now past three games, it's time to check how are our picks are doing. (*And every night dotted by suspension-potential hits, such as two in last night's Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay Game 3, and interesting player discussion of the Raffi Torres hit here.)
Meanwhile, are there indications from the final two months of the season that should have told us some playoff teams are trending better than others? After the jump, a look at our picks vs. reality, plus Mike's adjusted power rankings for the final two months of the regular season.
Our Playoff Poll Picks
These are the results from our series polls (where LHH readers voted on the winner and the number of games), not the LHH playoff pool (where you need only pick the series winner). And not my own picks (which are assuredly worse):
| Series | LHH Poll (%) | Current | Chances of Majority being Right |
| Capitals-Rangers | Was in 5 (45%) | Was up 2-1 | Kill the Smurfs. Kill. |
| Flyers-Sabres | Buf in 6 (44%) | Buf trails 2-1 | Buffalo needs to win out. |
| Bruins-Canadiens | Bos in 6 (30%) | Bos trails 2-1 | Boston has major work to do, must win out. |
| Penguins-Lightning | Tie: Either in 6 (27% each) | Pit up 2-1 | It could happen. Either way. |
| Sharks-Kings | SJ in 5 (65%)! | Tied 1-1 | Anything can happen here, but SJ must win out. |
| Canucks-Blackhawks | Van in 6 (40%) | Van up 3-0 | Looks like it won't even be that close. |
| Red Wings-Coyotes | Det in 5 (33%) | Det up 3-0 | Last days of the desert dogs? |
| Ducks-Predators | Nas in 6 (25%) | Nas leads 2-1 | Stay on target, mustard leader. |
Final 60 Days Power Rankings
Here is Mike's (LHH member ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles, who has run our Power Rankings and FIG tallies all year) explanation for these tables:
These standings are based solely on the last two calendar months of the season. If you look to [the second table below], you'll see a quick side-by-side comparison for each first round match-up. The first comparison is for the full year, and the second for the past two months. Finally, you'll see two columns that show the difference in power rankings points (the last column in the big table.... "PWR") between the two teams for both the full year and the past two months. If it's a positive number, it means the higher seed did better. Negative shows the lower seed did better (that's gonna happen when looking at just the past two months, since top teams might let their foot off the gas a bit while others have to win every game just to qualify).
Power Rankings, Final Two Months (Playoff teams in italics)
| W | L | OTL | Pts | Played | Pct | Game | PWR | ||
| 1 | Washington | 19 | 7 | 1 | 39 | 27 | 0.722 | 0.4014 | 2213 |
| 2 | San Jose | 18 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 27 | 0.722 | 0.4081 | 2176 |
| 3 | Chicago | 16 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 28 | 0.661 | 0.3742 | 2042 |
| 4 | New Jersey | 18 | 9 | 1 | 37 | 28 | 0.661 | 0.3624 | 2039 |
| 5 | Buffalo | 18 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 0.683 | 0.3654 | 2030 |
| 6 | Phoenix | 15 | 7 | 4 | 34 | 26 | 0.654 | 0.3776 | 2003 |
| 7 | Vancouver | 19 | 8 | 0 | 38 | 27 | 0.704 | 0.3771 | 1967 |
| 8 | NY Rangers | 15 | 10 | 1 | 31 | 26 | 0.596 | 0.3551 | 1964 |
| 9 | Toronto | 14 | 8 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 0.607 | 0.3486 | 1908 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay | 13 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 0.593 | 0.3373 | 1892 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | 15 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 27 | 0.630 | 0.3409 | 1880 |
| 12 | Los Angeles | 17 | 8 | 4 | 38 | 29 | 0.655 | 0.3486 | 1875 |
| 13 | Boston | 15 | 9 | 4 | 34 | 28 | 0.607 | 0.3473 | 1868 |
| 14 | Detroit | 15 | 9 | 4 | 34 | 28 | 0.607 | 0.3431 | 1862 |
| 15 | Montreal | 14 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 27 | 0.574 | 0.3248 | 1805 |
| 16 | Anaheim | 17 | 9 | 1 | 35 | 27 | 0.648 | 0.3387 | 1791 |
| 17 | Carolina | 14 | 10 | 4 | 32 | 28 | 0.571 | 0.3236 | 1790 |
| 18 | Ottawa | 15 | 10 | 2 | 32 | 27 | 0.593 | 0.3116 | 1746 |
| 19 | NY Islanders | 13 | 10 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 0.552 | 0.3126 | 1729 |
| 20 | Nashville | 15 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 27 | 0.630 | 0.3126 | 1674 |
| 21 | Philadelphia | 12 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 29 | 0.534 | 0.2868 | 1615 |
| 22 | Dallas | 12 | 11 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 0.518 | 0.2881 | 1553 |
| 23 | Calgary | 13 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 0.596 | 0.2821 | 1478 |
| 24 | St. Louis | 14 | 13 | 3 | 31 | 30 | 0.517 | 0.2660 | 1395 |
| 25 | Atlanta | 10 | 14 | 2 | 22 | 26 | 0.423 | 0.2295 | 1293 |
| 26 | Columbus | 8 | 12 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 0.429 | 0.2258 | 1233 |
| 27 | Florida | 7 | 16 | 6 | 20 | 29 | 0.345 | 0.2083 | 1164 |
| 28 | Minnesota | 11 | 15 | 3 | 25 | 29 | 0.431 | 0.2142 | 1122 |
| 29 | Edmonton | 9 | 15 | 4 | 22 | 28 | 0.393 | 0.1866 | 991 |
| 30 | Colorado | 5 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 0.214 | 0.1093 | 578 |
Playoff Pairings
| Full Year | Last 2 Months | Diff | Diff | |||||
| PWR | Rank | PWR | Rank | year | last 2 mos | |||
| East: | ||||||||
| Washington | 1950 | 3 | 2213 | 1 | 220 | 249 | ||
| NY Rangers | 1730 | 17 | 1964 | 8 | ||||
| Philadelphia | 1928 | 4 | 1615 | 21 | 172 | -415 | ||
| Buffalo | 1756 | 16 | 2030 | 5 | ||||
| Boston | 1869 | 8 | 1868 | 13 | 89 | 63 | ||
| Montreal | 1780 | 14 | 1805 | 15 | ||||
| Pittsburgh | 1907 | 5 | 1880 | 11 | 24 | -12 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 1883 | 7 | 1892 | 10 | ||||
| West: | ||||||||
| Vancouver | 2105 | 1 | 1967 | 7 | 283 | -75 | ||
| Chicago | 1822 | 12 | 2042 | 3 | ||||
| San Jose | 1979 | 2 | 2176 | 2 | 161 | 301 | ||
| Los Angeles | 1818 | 13 | 1875 | 12 | ||||
| Detroit | 1905 | 6 | 1862 | 14 | 59 | -141 | ||
| Phoenix | 1846 | 10 | 2003 | 6 | ||||
| Anaheim | 1856 | 9 | 1791 | 16 | 17 | 117 | ||
| Nashville | 1839 | 11 | 1674 | 20 | ||||
Again: If it's a positive number, it means the higher seed did better over the last two months. Negative shows the lower seed did better.
So this is another way of looking at who struggled down the stretch (Philadelphia big time, Detroit less so), and who had to play like gangbusters just to get in (Anaheim, Buffalo), or who played on fire to enter the playoffs as a healthy power (San Jose).
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Big change of subject here, but ...
since the last horn sounded the only issue I care about is the future, ie. arena. Yesterday’s Shinnecock/Nassau County development is obviously very preliminary but it does show there is interest in an idea that would wrest control from Murray/TOH and give them an out, even a way to save face. Yesterday’s step might be way for the parties to gauge reaction and see what they might be up against. Given the county’s ongoing finanicial disaster, the idea of such a revenue stream would seem a no-brainer, notwithstanding the obligatory and selfish ‘not in my backyard’ drivel that’s sure to come. Also sure to be factor are the open palms to be extended by the same scoundrels most responsible for holding things up at the site to this point. Still, the casino-arena scenario may well be the last, best hope for us Islander fans.
Agreed... to a degree.
Actually, I don’t know if I’d ever want to live near a casino, and I don’t blame people who feel the same way. Statistics reported by Let There Be Light(house) showed that casinos lower the value of surrounding homes.
But if it happens at that site, it would be hilarious, given that ToH and Garden City could’ve just had a hotel, businesses, and middle-income housing at the site, and instead they’re gonna get something far worse. Good luck with that, people!
But more realistically, Hempstead could always negotiate a bigger scope for Wang to build, something that all sides can live with. That would kill off the ultimate home value killer. And that’s fine with me. After all, my parents live only 5 minutes from the Coliseum (not in Garden City, but close enough to worry about higher crime rates).
Currently a good luck charm for the Canucks.... whether I like it or not.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Apr 19, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
At the risk ...
of perpetuating another round of this unresolvable merry-go-round debate, and of opening myself up to ‘easy for you to say, you don’t live here’ attacks, I get the fears and concerns about possible ‘bad elements’ infiltrating the pristine, virgin-like landscape and geo-socio environment of Nassau County, but the place is going down the toilet, and fast. I grew up there and lived there as recently as the 90’s. Because of what was happening out there economically, and is still happening but moreso, getting the hell out there was clearly my best option. Precisely as a result of neglect by those who are SUPPOSED to be running things and those who are REALLY running things, their bad and/or total lack of planning, their total disregard for the future, and their simple greed and corruption, solutions that may seem extreme now appear to be necessary. If done correctly and with best intentions in mind – granted, a rather lofty hope – I think the casino/arena idea could work for everyone, except those afraid or unwilling to act to stop the inexorable decline of the area.
Off-season is the perfect time for changing the subject
As a carpetbagger, all I can say is it’s been painful to watch. I’m generally against casinos as development solutions (seen it play out in too many back yards where promises fell short and communities raced to compete against each other with sweeter deals…kind of like communities with sports venues, with the casino company replacing the league as the national party just looking for the easiest community to use).
But I hear your point: At what point will those in power realize something needs to be done for a sustainable future, and whenever that comes, what will the remaining options be?
Lighthouse Hockey: Send us your cold, your poor, your healthy goalies.
No problem at all.
And besides, that’s kinda what I meant. The threat of the casino might finally get some sort of Lighthouse project off the ground, because it will be seen as the lesser of two evils. Even though we both know that Wang’s concept is hardly an “evil.”
Currently a good luck charm for the Canucks.... whether I like it or not.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Apr 19, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
My picks so far....
… are likely the same as most others. The team I picked to go all the way (Vancouver) is doing real well. But there were an upset or two that I picked which apparently aren’t happening (so much for the Coyotes’ surge near the end of the year).
Guess the power rankings can only do so much.
/shrugs
Currently a good luck charm for the Canucks.... whether I like it or not.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Apr 19, 2011 8:52 AM EDT reply actions
Plenty a time left, plenty of time!
That’s what I tell myself, anyway.
Lighthouse Hockey: Send us your cold, your poor, your healthy goalies.
I really thought the Coyotes would have at least shown up.
Oh, well.
Currently a good luck charm for the Canucks.... whether I like it or not.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Apr 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Dom, hit the nightlife with Mrs LHH
Hockey will still be here when you get back. You will get a “plus” CORSI rating for it.
We are all Islanders, even if we are in Jersey!
Playoff time means doing both
Burning the candle at both ends!
Lighthouse Hockey: Send us your cold, your poor, your healthy goalies.
Did anyone predict the Penguins would have the dirtiest play in the playoffs?
B/c Chris Kunitz made that come true
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
I just don't know.
It was a brutal hit, don’t get me wrong, but… well, you did see the attempted Chris Simon-like skate stomp just a few days earlier, right? That only got, what, two or four games? I don’t know how the Kunitz hit can be deemed any worse. One was an attempt to concuss someone. The other was an attempt to slice through their skin, tendons, and bone. Either one can end a career. I think the league has painted itself into yet another corner.
Currently a good luck charm for the Canucks.... whether I like it or not.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Apr 19, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
if you deliberately elbow someone in the head from the blindside?
I mean that’s pretty terrible. The stomp was bad too, I saw that as well, but somewhat unprecedented. This has a precedent and a mandate from the league, but that all apparently means nothing.
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
Oh, sure, it's pretty terrible.
I’m comparing:
A) scrambling someone’s brains, and
B) slicing through a limb
In the case of (A), you can lose your mind. In the case of (B), you can lose your leg. I mean both literally. They’re both absolutely horrible. But for some reason, I can’t confidently say one is any worse than the other. So if one gets a mere two games, what does that say about the other?
Well, now we know. It’s only one game. I don’t agree with either. They should both be out longer. I just don’t know if an elbow should be any more than surgically removing a limb.
But whatever. I know there can be plenty of opinions on this one. /shrugs
Currently a good luck charm for the Canucks.... whether I like it or not.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Apr 19, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Slice/stomp...was that Bobby Ryan?
I still haven’t seen that one. Gotta look it up…
I found both actions last night really foul. Kunitz, what the hell, where did you learn how to bodycheck?!
Lighthouse Hockey: Send us your cold, your poor, your healthy goalies.
It was Ryan
heres a video of it
Not as bad as Simon or Pronger’s skate stomping, but i fail to see how Ryans stomp was worse than Kunitz’s elbow or Downie’s i-believe-i-can-fly superman check
"Mario Lemiuex… I used to respect you."- Turgeon1992
Wow
My first reaction was it might have been an accident or he was just trying to kick his foot off the puck. Second view, on slow-mo replay (which can be distorting), it looks dangerous and vicious.
Lighthouse Hockey: Send us your cold, your poor, your healthy goalies.
oh no it was definitely intentional
thankfully he didnt hurt the guy ( i think it was geoffrion or w/e that guys name is)
"Mario Lemiuex… I used to respect you."- Turgeon1992
Downie gets a game
Bob McKenzie
TSNBobMcKenzie Bob McKenzie
One game for Steve Downie.
46 seconds ago
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
Website: Lighthousehockey.com Twitter: @KeithLHHockey
Kunitz too
Bob McKenzie
TSNBobMcKenzie Bob McKenzie
One game for Chris Kuntiz.
52 seconds ago
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
Website: Lighthousehockey.com Twitter: @KeithLHHockey
im not sure if i liked either of those
i think they both shouldve been gone for the rest of the series
"Mario Lemiuex… I used to respect you."- Turgeon1992
Well, it's obvious if you wanna miss a LOT of playoff games...
you need to administer those hits at the end of the regular season (Cooke).
Playoff head shots are less severe than regular season head shots.
Just let them play
"Seriously that's the last time you guys f#@%ing won?" -RSH (about beating the Penguins in '93)
Twitter reactions
Matthew Barnaby
MattBarnabyESPN Matthew Barnaby
I will never guess on another suspension again!! Wow 1 game for kunitz?? Tried to take gagnes head off with elbow!! Fair game boys! Hit away
1 minute ago
Pension Plan Puppets
mlse Pension Plan Puppets
I mean, the Rangers would be idiots to not try to take out an opponent when they know they might get away with it scot free or with 1 game.
6 minutes ago
Mark Spector Sports
SportsnetSpec Mark Spector Sports
1 game each for Downie and Kunitz. My apologies to readers for believing NH:n justice heading in right direction. It’s not. I was wrong.
8 minutes ago
Greg Wyshynski
wyshynski Greg Wyshynski
Chris Nilan just said Colin Campbell shows “no balls” on some of NHL’s non-rulings for suspensions. #PDRadio
9 minutes ago
Adam Proteau
Proteautype Adam Proteau
One game for Downie & one for Kunitz. As always, at the most important time of the year, the NHL lets its players get away with more! GONG
12 minutes ago
Larry Brooks
NYP_Brooksie Larry Brooks
Another step backward for NHL in 1-game sentence to Kunitz. But again, if league doesn’t care, if players don’t care, why should we?
3 minutes ago
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
Website: Lighthousehockey.com Twitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Apr 19, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see how Kunitz was any different than Cooke's hit on McDonaugh.
Cooke got his suspension I guess more for reputation and poor timing than DELIBERATELY TRYING TO KNOCK A PLAYER OUT WITH A BLANTANT ELBOW TO THE HEAD. Even with Cooke’s hit, McDonaugh was at least facing him. Kunitz went from the blind side.
I’m completely dumbfounded. I first saw it and thought, Kunitz is done for the series, and probably the playoffs, and probably 5-10 games next year. Either send a message or don’t, but this in between shit is maddening.
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
Yeah
I thought Kunitz was worse. I said in last night’s thread that Cooke put his elbow up and his just continued his trajectory/momentum. Kunitz actually launched the elbow and shifts his body weight from his skates through the hit. The gif was awesome for showing that, but big brother took it down from the other thread
Kunitz of course doesn’t have the “history”, but I believe he was the one that hit Comeau from behind like that in the beginning of the season that Bailey jumped. If you remember, we scored 2 PP goals in the sequence.
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
Website: Lighthousehockey.com Twitter: @KeithLHHockey
I think you're mixing up incidents
I believe the time when Bailey jumped in was the first month of the season, Letang hit Comeau at the blueline on what replays showed was a shoulder-to-shoulder check. Talbot hit Comeau from behind after he cleared the puck in the meeting before the FFF.
(Mind you, I didn’t look these up so I could just be muddying the info further.)
Lighthouse Hockey: Send us your cold, your poor, your healthy goalies.
idk if it was letang
but im pretty sure it was a defensmen, which would exclude kunitz from that
"Mario Lemiuex… I used to respect you."- Turgeon1992
May have been Letang
Bailey got to the guy to the goalie’s right just about at the crease and rag-dolled him around.
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
Website: Lighthousehockey.com Twitter: @KeithLHHockey
Wheel of justice?
It the WHEEL OF JUSTICE for the ISLES.
The league favorites have the WHEEL OF FORTUNE, and of course Boston’s Wheel fell of the wagon.
In loving memory;Dad thanks for making us Islanders fans, ACC 1918-2011
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
