How are our playoff picks doing? Plus: Late Power Rankings perspective

An endangered scene?

I fear there has been a security breach, and Mrs. Lighthouse has gotten to the NHL schedule makers: There are only two playoff games on the docket tonight. That almost implies a "night for us" -- at least before the first game (CHI-VAN) kicks off at 8 p.m. EDT, followed by SJ-LA at 10:30.

With almost every series* now past three games, it's time to check how are our picks are doing. (*And every night dotted by suspension-potential hits, such as two in last night's Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay Game 3, and interesting player discussion of the Raffi Torres hit here.)

Meanwhile, are there indications from the final two months of the season that should have told us some playoff teams are trending better than others? After the jump, a look at our picks vs. reality, plus Mike's adjusted power rankings for the final two months of the regular season.

Our Playoff Poll Picks

These are the results from our series polls (where LHH readers voted on the winner and the number of games), not the LHH playoff pool (where you need only pick the series winner). And not my own picks (which are assuredly worse):

Series LHH Poll (%) Current Chances of Majority being Right
Capitals-Rangers Was in 5 (45%) Was up 2-1 Kill the Smurfs. Kill.
Flyers-Sabres Buf in 6 (44%) Buf trails 2-1 Buffalo needs to win out.
Bruins-Canadiens Bos in 6 (30%) Bos trails 2-1 Boston has major work to do, must win out.
Penguins-Lightning Tie: Either in 6 (27% each) Pit up 2-1 It could happen. Either way.
Sharks-Kings SJ in 5 (65%)! Tied 1-1 Anything can happen here, but SJ must win out.
Canucks-Blackhawks Van in 6 (40%) Van up 3-0 Looks like it won't even be that close.
Red Wings-Coyotes Det in 5 (33%) Det up 3-0 Last days of the desert dogs?
Ducks-Predators Nas in 6 (25%) Nas leads 2-1 Stay on target, mustard leader.

 

Final 60 Days Power Rankings

Here is Mike's (LHH member ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles, who has run our Power Rankings and FIG tallies all year) explanation for these tables:

These standings are based solely on the last two calendar months of the season. If you look to [the second table below], you'll see a quick side-by-side comparison for each first round match-up. The first comparison is for the full year, and the second for the past two months. Finally, you'll see two columns that show the difference in power rankings points (the last column in the big table.... "PWR") between the two teams for both the full year and the past two months. If it's a positive number, it means the higher seed did better. Negative shows the lower seed did better (that's gonna happen when looking at just the past two months, since top teams might let their foot off the gas a bit while others have to win every game just to qualify).

Power Rankings, Final Two Months (Playoff teams in italics)

    W L OTL Pts Played Pct Game PWR
1 Washington 19 7 1 39 27 0.722 0.4014 2213
2 San Jose 18 6 3 39 27 0.722 0.4081 2176
3 Chicago 16 7 5 37 28 0.661 0.3742 2042
4 New Jersey 18 9 1 37 28 0.661 0.3624 2039
5 Buffalo 18 7 5 41 30 0.683 0.3654 2030
6 Phoenix 15 7 4 34 26 0.654 0.3776 2003
7 Vancouver 19 8 0 38 27 0.704 0.3771 1967
8 NY Rangers 15 10 1 31 26 0.596 0.3551 1964
9 Toronto 14 8 6 34 28 0.607 0.3486 1908
10 Tampa Bay 13 8 6 32 27 0.593 0.3373 1892
11 Pittsburgh 15 8 4 34 27 0.630 0.3409 1880
12 Los Angeles 17 8 4 38 29 0.655 0.3486 1875
13 Boston 15 9 4 34 28 0.607 0.3473 1868
14 Detroit 15 9 4 34 28 0.607 0.3431 1862
15 Montreal 14 10 3 31 27 0.574 0.3248 1805
16 Anaheim 17 9 1 35 27 0.648 0.3387 1791
17 Carolina 14 10 4 32 28 0.571 0.3236 1790
18 Ottawa 15 10 2 32 27 0.593 0.3116 1746
19 NY Islanders 13 10 6 32 29 0.552 0.3126 1729
20 Nashville 15 8 4 34 27 0.630 0.3126 1674
21 Philadelphia 12 10 7 31 29 0.534 0.2868 1615
22 Dallas 12 11 5 29 28 0.518 0.2881 1553
23 Calgary 13 8 5 31 26 0.596 0.2821 1478
24 St. Louis 14 13 3 31 30 0.517 0.2660 1395
25 Atlanta 10 14 2 22 26 0.423 0.2295 1293
26 Columbus 8 12 8 24 28 0.429 0.2258 1233
27 Florida 7 16 6 20 29 0.345 0.2083 1164
28 Minnesota 11 15 3 25 29 0.431 0.2142 1122
29 Edmonton 9 15 4 22 28 0.393 0.1866 991
30 Colorado 5 21 2 12 28 0.214 0.1093 578

 

Playoff Pairings 

Full Year Last 2 Months Diff Diff
PWR Rank PWR Rank year last 2 mos
East:
Washington 1950 3 2213 1 220 249
NY Rangers 1730 17 1964 8
Philadelphia 1928 4 1615 21 172 -415
Buffalo 1756 16 2030 5
Boston 1869 8 1868 13 89 63
Montreal 1780 14 1805 15
Pittsburgh 1907 5 1880 11 24 -12
Tampa Bay 1883 7 1892 10
West:
Vancouver 2105 1 1967 7 283 -75
Chicago 1822 12 2042 3
San Jose 1979 2 2176 2 161 301
Los Angeles 1818 13 1875 12
Detroit 1905 6 1862 14 59 -141
Phoenix 1846 10 2003 6
Anaheim 1856 9 1791 16 17 117
Nashville 1839 11 1674 20

 

Again: If it's a positive number, it means the higher seed did better over the last two months. Negative shows the lower seed did better.

So this is another way of looking at who struggled down the stretch (Philadelphia big time, Detroit less so), and who had to play like gangbusters just to get in (Anaheim, Buffalo), or who played on fire to enter the playoffs as a healthy power (San Jose).

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