Calder Trophy Race: End-of-Season GVT Update.


If you remember, way back in in February I broke down the Calder race using advanced statistics and concluded that any of the three big candidates had a real case for the Calder.  I ignored goalies at the time, since comparing them is really difficult. 

Well as part of that analysis I quickly took a note at the Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) of each of the players in question.  GVT is, as better explained in the intro HERE, an attempt to put a value in goals created on every hockey players total contribution, counting both offense and defense.  It's, as mentioned before, far from a perfect measure (for example it omits quality of one's competition, an important thing to know for context), but it gives us a good first look at who may or may not be worthy for the award. 

At the time, the GVTs of each of the players in question were:
Logan Couture: 10.4
Michael Grabner: 9.8
Jeff Skinner: 9.2

All pretty close, such that I wouldn't feel comfortable using GVT alone to judge one player as the most worthy of the award, with Couture having the lead.

How do the GVT totals look now?*

Michael Grabner 16.8
Logan Couture 16.1
Corey Crawford (Goalie) 15.0
Jeff Skinner 13.9


Well then, look who's on top!  Once again, the same line I said in February still applies...I don't trust GVT's context-based judgments enough to clearly declare one player the most worthy based on a difference of GVT of less than 1 goal, as we seee here between Grabs and Couture.  Skinner meanwhile falls behind  by quite a bit, though GVT misses a big factor in his drawing a ton of penalties.  Still, he's probably not up there.  In case you're curious why this is, it's because Skinner got some seriously easier ice time than both Couture and Grabner, in terms of competition, zone-starts, and Penalty-Killing/Power-Play Time. 

Of note, that 16.8 number of Michael Grabner?  That's the best number of any Islander is OVER THREE YEARS - Even more than Mark Streit in 08-09 (16.1)  and makes him the most valuable non-goalie Islander since Adrian Aucoin in 03-04 (It's easy to forget how good Aucoin's numbers were that year).  That's a pretty good start to his career.

Anyhow, I plan on writing a full statistical Calder breakdown on BehindtheNet (which I'll link over here) in a few days.  I'm not saying here in this post that Grabner is the only clear Calder Candidate.  But the fact that he's not even considered is just silly.

*BehindtheNet's listing of GVT has been non-updated for over a month, but I got the final numbers of the relevant players from Hockey Prospectus' Timo Seppa (@TimoSeppa). 

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