The Drive for Five (Hundred)

The New York Islanders are technically still in the playoff race, I know- but I have maintained since all the way back around the end of November that was not going to happen this season. Losing 20 out of 21 games is simply too much to overcome, even for a team that has earned the most points in the eastern conference in the timespan since things turned around.  What CAN happen is something I was all but certain of back in December would also be completely impossible- the Isles might avoid a losing 10-11 season....

The New York Islanders are currently at: 70GP | 27W | 32L | 11OTL/SOL | 65PTS. That means they are presently 5 games under NHL-500, with 12 games to go. (NHL-500 meaning 82 points in 82 games played)

Since the Isles have 65 points right now, they would need to earn 17 points in those 12 games. 

As a matter of perspective, the Isles earned 16 points in their last 12 games (6-2-4)
I guess it would be accurate to say that the Isles need to play exactly like they have been playing, except they need to find ONE more point in that time span.

Its not going to be easy, though.

Fact: The Isles fare far better at home. 
8 of the previous 12 games were at home, and only 4 were away. 
Only 5 of the final 12 are home games- 7 are away. 
Thats gonna make it tougher.

Fact: Only 5 of the previous 12 games were against teams assured of a playoff spot... although 4 more of those against non-playoff teams were against the Leafs and Devils, who have been making great runs.
Of the next 12, virtually all of the teams except the Panthers are either in a playoff spot or are either close or making great runs. That too will make it tougher.

Below are are the games coming up in the remainder of the season, along with my predictions.
A few notes: I lumped all losses (REG L, OTL, SOL) together as non-wins... but I included the points in the last line because that affects things here. I predicted all upcoming games as either wins or non-wins. 

So, the Isles need 17 points (or more!) to avoid having a losing season. The way I see things at the moment (of course things can and will change when you see what the other teams are doing) I think the Isles are likely to get 12 points from straight-up wins. That means they would either have to earn 5 points in the other 6 non-win games, or win some of those games marked as non-wins outright. Note that in the drive for five hundred, it doesnt matter whether the other teams get points off us... an OTW or a SOW means just as much as a Reg W.

So, what do you think? Do you see the Isles drive for five hundred being successful?



(BTW- I originally posted this at TheNHLArena but I know all you guys do not post there and I wanted to see your predictions!)

<em>Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.</em>

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