Better Days: How far will the rebuild bring us?

In order be truly elite, I think you also need at least one core elite player or generational talent – Yzerman/Lidstrom, Brodeur, Crosby, that in their prime can put you over the top when all things are equal.

There is just not going to be enough money around to keep this team together at an elite level without more revenue (unless the next CBA reduces the cap greatly). As things currently stand I think we will, starting next year, reach the bubble. We should reach respectability by 2013. We should be able to maintain that with the current talent pipeline for at least 6 years unless we start dealing at some point to speed up the jump to VG. The trouble is going to lie at getting to VG with the current budget. Certainly more people will be attending games and at higher prices if the team is winning but without the corporate money tied to a new arena it will be hard to maintain a high competitive level. I think we can get to VG even on a budget but it will be hard to maintain. I hope as the team improves it gives more impetus to building a new arena.

I think are a very good study under Respectable, b/c when they were tops in the league it was not only to a large extent b/c of former Isles picks after blowing up rebuild in 01, but b/c Sens were comparitively where the Isles were in 1978 after having finished first in the league 3 straight years, yet were knocked out of the playoffs by teams that on paper they should have beat. The Isles identified what they needed to do to get to the next level, made the changes and we all know the rest. The Sens on the other hand failed, and now are back to rebuilding again.

I agree with posters who are against trading draft picks this year. Hate to bring up Toronto and Phil Kessel again, but it is the reality. Isles are still too many players away from contention and drafting too high to make trades like that. I am also weary of high end free agents. I think the lack of their signing with the NYI is a bit of a redherring insofar as team’s future goes. I said it before, it would be interesting to see a study on high end free agent signings, who are often overpaid – and the results of team success after their signing. Too often it seems the team that lost out and didn’t land the big UFA ended up the real winners. Small market teams have to be particularly careful and can not afford to make mistakes. The Isles books will be looking reasonably well in a few years when Yashin, Witt and Hunter are all off. That leaves only DP’s to complain about and pretty much every team is carrying bad contracts.

I believe the Isles are about 5 players away and a few years experience and development from cup contention. If three of these players can be had through the draft, one via trade, that leaves only one through UFA. When team is better, UFAs will be easier to sign but again, they are not cheap and therefore with cap and small market, really have to limit the number of high end UFAs.

I’m not being pesimistic about the progress the team will make the next two seasons. I’m just managing my expectations.

Read on if you dare. I really went to town on this one. If ya don’t like non-sense … skip to the next posting.

I don’t think the Isles are as bad as their record shows … They’ve had some catastrophic events occur to them since training camp. I think if they came into the season 100% healthy things would of played out a bit different. I don’t think they’d of made the playoffs … but I think they’d probably have been on the bubble with the Sabres and Hurricanes right now. Losing Streit and Okposo before the start of the season, and tossing out DP with all that rust really put a lot of pressure on a very young team. I think in the end they grew from that experience… Rollie stole some points in December, and Garth got the max he could for him while he could in a cold goalie market.

I voted Bubble primarily because I’m a one step at a time person. Until I see the Isles even knocking on the door to become a “bubble” team we can’t project much further beyond that in 2 seasons. Where were the Islanders 3, 2 or even 1 season ago? They’re pretty much in the same territory .. A bottom 5 team.

I’m not going to rag on them, and say they stink … because considering what we were talking about in August … they’re not far below what I thought they’d be. Injuries played a huge part, and still do.

Instead of defending on why I think they will only be a “bubble” team in ‘12 – ’13 (forget about beyond right now… too far away) … I’ll just mention what the Isles would need in order to obtain each level of success, starting with the status quo.

Keep in mind … a lot of players on the Islanders today that play on the team’s top 6 might only be 3rd or 4th line talent on more than half the teams in the league. So when I call out a player for being lower on the talent scale, I’m not using a metric of Islander talent. I’m measuring them against ALL NHL talent.

The first thing that will impact the team beyond is the new CBA… What will it mean to a team like the Isles?

Bottom Feeder – Injuries and muted development of core players will keep the Islanders where they are. If the Islanders keep the minor league coach conveyor going, they will not receive the proper coaching or veteran player support they have gotten. Doug Weight is a rare breed. He just may become the coach. I don’t know. This year’s draft may bring some help … but if they pick 4th and beyond … it’s going to give them only a modest 3rd line NHL depth player. Even if JT and Matty Moulson are potting 30+ goals they are going to need more than 20+ from the Comeau’s, Bailey’s and Okposo’s. I think Grabner is going to have to also prove he’s going to bring his top speed talent to the team season after season. Remember how high we were on Hunter? The defense will have Mark Streit in the last season of his contract in ‘12-’13 … He’ll have to play then how he played the previous two seasons for the Isles to have a shot … The maturation of Hamonic and A-Mac on the blue line could push the Isles to the top of the Bottom Feeder group (finishing 11th or 12 in the conference), but they’ll need CdH and other blue line prospects to come to the Isles as top flight d-men to get beyond that.

Bubble – A familiar place for the Islanders from the 2002-03 season through ‘06-’07 (aside from ‘06 bottom feeder season) … Of all places this is where the Islanders don’t want to be. Drafting 12th overall when you need lots of help doesn’t really put you over the top … However, if the Islanders get to this point from where they’ve been it will be significant progress. Why I think they’ll only get to this level in two years is because I don’t believe Mark Streit will be able to play like he did 2 years ago. He’ll be turning 35, and once you get injured like he did in his 30’s it takes much longer to recover, and you aren’t likely to have the same mobility as you had before.

I think by that season what the Islanders will have more of that they don’t have today is team depth. Their 3rd line will be much better as the kids push up the development curve of the Islanders. The top 2 lines therefore will be better too. There will still be question marks, but team depth will be a strength. What they will lack however is scoring depth … Beyond JT & MMo are players who consistently break the 20 goal barrier. Sure Comeau, Bailey and Okposo have sniffed at it; and injuries had a factor … They haven’t shown me it will be consistent. Deep inside I know they have the tools to even push 30 … but will they? Grabs is a wild card… He’s taken the opportunity that Garth gave him and thus far is parlaying that into a nice contract renewal.

Then there is the Goaltending situation … DP out now 6 weeks means KP is our #1 goalie. Talanted? Hell Yes!!! Ready to bring this team to the promised land? I’m not sure. In the big picture … I think DP has more question marks than Poulin… Call the other night’s fight a passing of the torch from DP to KP … but I just hope this doesn’t hurt Poulin’s development… or perhaps it will hasten it?

Bottom line this team is too young and unproven to expect anything more than Bubble in 2 years.

Respectable – Given the defintion assigned to this status level, I don’t think the Isles will get the guns to get there. If the Isles need a big free agent signing to vault to Respectable they will be disappointed. I don’t see them playing in a new building by then to even entice a big free agent by 2012. Even if that issue is resolved I’m not convinced it will change the Isle’s free agent black list status in that short amount of time. For the Isles to get to Respectable, known entities like JT, MMo, Bailey, Grabner, MMa, Nino, Comeau (assuming he’s an Isle), Okposo all need to collectively make a measurable step up in production… Then what about the other players at the Bridge? Did they make a huge leap in development to push the team forward?

The defense… We’ll need a huge upgrade in defense to hit respectable, even if all the forwards exceed current output. As I see it the current core of Streit, Hamonic and A-Mac will be in the top 4 in ‘12-’13. Prospects Wishart, deHann, Katic, Kessel and Donovan are going to have to ALL step up a huge leap from where they are now. Don’t be convinced by Wishart’s & deHann’s draft positions that they are blue chip defense prospects. They are not. They may be top 4, but that is a ceiling … not a projection. Against the Isles’ current group of prospects they may look golden, but lets be real. Every year there is a surprise developing player in the NHL. Hamonic was ours… and Poulin looks like a hidden gem too. Every year there is also a disappointing player development story … Don’t we know it.

Then there are the wild cards in Lee, Cizikas, Petrov, DiBo, Figren and a bunch of other raw talents out there that may push the Isles forward if they can only help push the current young guns further by challenging them for spots.

This year’s draft … IF … a BIG IF … The Isles draft Adam Larsson … and he’s as advertised … he may round out the Isles blue line as solid top 4. We’ll only need Wishart then to become a baby Pronger to keep things honest.

Very Good – If teams like the Caps, Vancouver and San Jose are in this catagory then the Isles are many years from realizing that potential. The Isles have NO ONE on the current team or in the prospect pool that project to be “generational” like Ovie, or as deep as the ’Nucks and San Jose have been the last 5 years. Look what it took for Tampa to get to “Very Good”… it took existing stars to regenerate their careers, great offseason moves and the blossoming of their own talent and continuing improvement of Super Star caliber Steve Stamkos. Not to mention a great trade in acquiring Rollie to push them ahead. It may only be a short stay for Tampa at this point and time … but they can stay there for some years if everything plays out as planned for them.

Forwards – The Isles will need at the least one 40+ goal scorer (JT has potential), two 30+ goal scorers (Moulson check and Okposo?) … then pepper that with three 20+ goal scorers (Bails? Grabs? Comeau? Nino? Rakhshani?) … See that? Too many question marks at this time. The potential of other prospects do not come close to filling in those question marks. We’ll need some happy surprises among the forward prospects to even think about getting to this level … not to mention defense and goaltending. Matt Martin finding the scoring touch he had in juniors to go with his toughness in the NHL would help this team BIG TIME!!

Defense … The Isles will need at least 2 lines of defenders that are legitimate top 4. Streit has proved doubters wrong in the past … If he can prove “this” doubter wrong that his injury will not degrade his play two years down the road at 35, then he’s still the man on the blue line. Hamonic … If he keeps shooting the puck on net, and takes his game up another step, then he’ll become a solid top 4. A-Mac is already on his way to becoming a legit top 4 defender. On any top 10 contending team A-Mac might be a 3rd pairing … and that is how you have to measure him. Who is the 4th stud to fill out the top pairing? I’ll have to go with deHann now for the fact that he’s currently our top defensive prospect still not on the team. I will not include Larsson since #1, we don’t even know if the Isles we get the chance to draft him. He’s a non-factor at this point. Maybe we can rediscuss this in August after the draft, prospect scrimmage and FA has cooled off.

Goaltending – The most important position for a hockey team. You don’t have to have a great one anymore … just reliable / very good one. Roy and Brodeur set the bar very high for current and future goaltenders … but think about this for a second… Combined they have 7 Stanley Cup wins … very impressive … However that was over a combined 37 seasons … now only a bit impressive … yet still impressive. The point is in the last 25 seasons the two best goaltenders ever have only combined to win the cup a little more than 25% of the time. If that was a hitter in baseball he’d be a utility player. They also have had a great team infront of them, and great coaches behind them more times than not. It also says something for the parity of the league … because there also have been other really good goalies that helped their teams win cups.

That being said … Goaltending has been the big catalyst to teams going far in the playoffs since forever. It’s still important… The fact however that Roy has 3 Conn Smythes and Brody has none doesn’t diminish the importance of goaltending during the playoffs. After all … The Devils won the cup in 2003, but the losing goalie JSG was such a factor in the playoffs, that he ended up becoming MVP. Here’s an interesting note … Patrick Roy was a below .500 career Junior player and only a 3rd round pick. So there is no telling where the next goaltending super star may come from… Maybe Quebec again … in the form of Poulin? Assuming that Poulin owns the crease in ‘12-’13, he’ll have to continue what he’s been doing to improve along with the other players at other positions for the Isles to even have a prayer at being “Very Good”

Elite This is sooooo far out of reach for ‘12-’13 that I can’t possibly think of a scenario that would help them get to this point … That being the challenge … I’ll support that scenario with the following “What IF’s”

Coaching – The Isles obtain the most respected coaching staff -

Head Coach … Caliber of such a coach would have to combine the ferocity of Mike Keenan, motivational skills of Al Arbour & experience of Scotty Bowman. I’m not saying that in a literal sense. I’m saying that the Isles need a coach that will collectively kick some ass, push the right buttons for each individual and yet have tons of NHL experience to garner respect and knowledge of the game at this level. In other words … players will look at such a coach and want to win for him, and want to learn from him and most of all … will want to win for each other.

Asst. Coach – Doug Weight might fill this need. I’m not sure. He’s a well respected veteran … but can he teach? They need a PP/ SH coach, a defense coach and forward coach … They need a huge time investment in the assistant coaching staff, thusly taking more of a focused approach to developing players since they are developing a bulk of prospects in the NHL. This has to begin next season.

Forwards …. Take all the above mentioned players and prospects … and have them ALL exceed their draft report. Seriously. John Tavares would need to become a 50+ goal 100+ point player that finishes the season at +40 or better. Kyle, Josh, Matt Mo, Grabs, Franz, Blake and the rest would ALL need to take 2 to 3 steps above their performances. Matt would have to be pushing almost 40 goals … Kyle, Josh, Grabs and Blake in the 25 + goal range just for the Isles to have that offensive punch to push back other teams.

Defense … The top 4 would have to be a top 4 on any of the top 5 teams in the league. They are all light years below that. Streit when healthy is the only defenseman on the Isles who would be a top 4 defenseman on ANY of the top 5 teams in the league. I think however with the stable of defensive prospects we may see Ham qualify as a top team top 4 defender. In two years however is stretching his development curve a bit.

Oh … and they would have to draft Larsson, and hope he develops a year ahead of Lidstrom’s pace … Other than Ham and deHann … there really are no top 4 potential defenders for a top 5 team…. A-Mac is on the bubble … but he projects lower than deHann at this time. It’s such a crap shoot. Defenseman take longer to develop.

Goaltending … Poulin and Nilsson become a 1-2 punch in net for the Isles … Poulin taking over the #1 spot … and DP retiring (sadly I believe his best days are already behind him) … Poulin would have to continue his advanced development, and Nilsson doing well in Sweden would have to come over to the Isles and become a top level backup. Mikko? If he develops OK, can be packaged for a player to be determined by need… or just let him over rippen in the AHL … the danger in this is he goes back to Europe after his ELC expires. DP? I have no idea. He’s the biggest question mark on the team… I root for DP every day to get back into form … and some games he looks awesome … The swollen knee thing every few weeks speaks volumes of his future ability to remain the #1.

Sooo… if all things in Islander Country exceed our wildest expectations …. and we land a generational talent in the next 2 years … Sure … we can become an Elite team.

Nino has scored 2 goals in the first period of tonight’s Winterhawks game. Still in 3rd period now.