FanPost

What's a Draft Pick Worth?

Criticizing a general manager for not getting a high enough draft pick when dealing an NHLer is all too common.  And debating whether player A is worth a 1 or a 2 makes for great Monday morning quaterbacking. The question always on my mind is, how do we know how much more valuable a 2 is then a 3, or a 4 is then a 5 or even a 4 is then a 7.

In order to answer this question, I compiled the total number of games played for every player drafted in rounds 1-7 from the 2000 through 2003 drafts.  I started with 2000 as that is when the league expanded to 30 teams and cut if off at 2003 in order to give each player enough opportunity to work their way into the NHL.  I normalized the data across the years by making games played a percentage of possible games played.  So any player drafted in the 2000 season would have had an opportunity to play 10 seasons of 82 games (minus the 30 yet to played this year), a player drafted in 2001 nine seasons and so on. 

I also broke the rounds up into thirds to provide context within the rounds themselves, as it is reasonable to assume where an acquired draft pick will be within each round.  Just a note, the last third of each round has more total number of picks as it also contains the compensatory picks.  If anyone has a better idea of how to incorporate that data pass it along. 

The most obvious conclusion is that 4th rounders are no more valuable then 7th rounders in terms of extracting NHL talent from the draft.  And more often times than not, when a specific tier of a round has an outlier percentage of games played it is usually because of just one drafted player becoming a bonafide NHLer. 

Two last notes: 1) It is really painful going back through the drafts of those years and seeing the players the Islanders passed over.  And 2) In no way do I believe this to be a fool proof evaluation method, just something to move the conversation forward and contextualize draft pick compensation.  I'm really interested to see what everyone here has to say about the data and if we can find ways to make it more revealing. 

On to the Data:

 

 

 

Round GP 2000 Picks Pick Numbers % of Games Played GP 2001 Picks Pick Numbers % of Games Played GP 2002 Picks Pick Numbers % of Games Played GP 2003 Picks Pick Numbers % of Games Played   Avg % of GP by Round Avg % of GP Within Each Round
1.00 3503 1-10 44.3 3584 1-10 50.6 3776 1-10 60.4 4192 1-10 77.1   45.35 58.10
1.00 2113 11-20 26.7 3463 11-20 48.9 2522 11-20 40.3 3456 11-20 63.5     44.85
1.00 3316 21-30 42 2034 21-30 28.7 755 21-30 12.1 2696 21-30 49.6     33.10
 
2.00 1877 31-40 23.8 1513 31-40 21.3 762 31-40 12.2 888 31-40 16.3   17.81 18.40
2.00 1220 41-50 15.4 1011 41-50 14.3 934 41-50 14.9 1599 41-50 29.4     18.50
2.00 1768 51-65 14.9 1461 51-63 13.8 1718 51-63 21.1 1594 51-68 16.3     16.53
 
3.00 381 66-75 4.8 825 64-73 11.7 961 54-73 15.4 743 69-78 13.7   9.29 11.40
3.00 801 76-85 10.1 246 74-83 3.5 106 74-83 1.7 575 79-88 10.6     6.48
3.00 856 86-96 9.9 1343 84-97 13.5 1002 84-96 12.3 306 89-101 4.3     10.00
 
4.00 628 97-106 7.9 1046 98-107 14.8 189 97-106 3 482 102-111 8.9   5.06 8.65
4.00 0 107-116 0 25 108-117 .4 126 107-116 2 109 112-121 2     1.10
4.00 865 117-130 7.8 443 118-131 4.5 611 117-131 6.5 234 122-136 2.9     5.43
 
5.00 367 131-140 4.6 709 131-141 10 308 132-141 4.9 94 137-146 1.7   5.81 5.30
5.00 122 141-150 1.5 582 142-151 8.2 1 142-151 0 803 147-156 14.8     6.13
5.00 1454 151-167 10.8 228 152-165 2.3 306 152-166 3.3 455 157-167 7.6     6.00
 
6.00 400 168-177 5.1 762 166-175 10.8 73 167-175 1.2 263 168-177 4.8   6.33 5.48
6.00 467 178-187 5.9 886 176-185 12.5 425 176-185 6.8 678 178-187 12.5     9.43
6.00 51 188-197 .6 1008 186-196 12.9 493 186-197 2.8 11 188-197 0     4.08
 
7.00 382 198-207 4.8 277 197-206 3.9 110 198-207 1.8 502 198-207 9.2   5.68 4.93
7.00 472 208-217 6 332 207-216 4.7 121 208-217 1.9 425 208-217 7.8     5.10
7.00 870 218-229 10 1115 217-227 14.3 279 218-229 3.7 63 218-229 .1     7.03

<em>Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.</em>

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