Diagnosing the Islanders' Problems, Part 1: An Inability to Drive Possession
by garik16 on Nov 8, 2011 3:43 PM EST
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PrintThe Islanders' situation this far (12 games in) to the season looks dismal. The Islanders have the second worst record in hockey - ahead of only Columbus - and look very little like they did in the more positive end of last season. Nearly every potential expected problem for the Isles has shown up this season (Goaltending, despite the three-headed monster, has not been a major problem) while very few of the expected positives have shown up (Just Tavares' improved offensive play).
But what are the true causes of the Islanders' problems? Well let's start from a really broad team perspective. The Isles' problems appear to have come from a lack of scoring.
This comes from two different places:
The first is that the Isles' Team shooting percentage is really low (7% at even strength, good for 23rd in the NHL). This is what most fans have seemingly focused upon - the Isles just aren't scoring even when they get shots on net. But believe it or not, this is really not a huge worry - this is mostly a fluke of small sample sizes. Shooting percentage is a statistic that is, especially early in the season (but even over the course of a whole season), is affected to an incredible degree by factors out of a team's control - luck on deflections, goalies standing on their head or goalies who are having incredibly bad games, sticks breaking allowing teams to practically play 5 on 4 even at even strength, etc. In other words, shooting % of teams' tend to be around the same over the long haul - last year, the Islanders' EV Shooting % was essentially only 1% worse than the #1 shooting team in the League, despite the Islanders ranking 21st.
Want some more evidence this abysmal shooting percentage isn't real? Well, only two teams had a 5 on 5 shooting percentage that bad last year - New Jersey and Montreal - and this year so far there are eight such teams. Oh and the Isles are actually ahead of Pittsburgh (11th in goals per game) by this measure and just slightly worse than Vancouver (6th in goals per game). Clearly, the Isles, who are 29th in goals per game, are not in the same category as these two teams, but shooting % would say that these teams have the shooting problems too!
No, what really has been the Isles' problem - on offense AND defense (because these are simply two sides of the same coin, really) - is their inability to retain POSSESSION of the puck and to keep it within the opponents' zone. In other words:
- When the puck is in the neutral zone, more often than not the puck is heading toward the Islanders' Defensive Zone.
- When the puck is in the offensive zone, the Islanders are having problems KEEPING it there as they try to get shots on net.
- When the puck is in the Islanders' defensive zone, the Islanders are having trouble getting it out and thus are giving up too many scoring chances.
Now, the NHL doesn't keep track of the time of possession each team spends within each zone (a shame), but we can approximate this by using shot totals - all shots, including missed and blocked shots. In other words, Corsi (For an explanation of Corsi, see here). The table below thus shows an approximate of the amount of time each team has kept possession in the opponents' zone. I've included the actual Points each team has accumulated per game as well in the table:
| Rank (Possession) | Team Name | Possession (% of time in the Offensive Zone) | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit | 58.5% | 1.083 |
| 2 | Boston | 54.9% | 0.923 |
| 3 | Vancouver | 54.9% | 1.000 |
| 4 | Washington | 53.6% | 1.500 |
| 5 | Chicago | 53.6% | 1.357 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | 53.2% | 1.400 |
| 7 | St. Louis | 53.1% | 0.923 |
| 8 | Colorado | 53.1% | 1.071 |
| 9 | San Jose | 52.5% | 1.308 |
| 10 | Ottawa Senators | 52.3% | 1.000 |
| 11 | Florida | 51.4% | 1.154 |
| 12 | Columbus | 50.5% | 0.357 |
| 13 | Winnipeg | 50.4% | 0.857 |
| 14 | Los Angeles | 50.3% | 1.071 |
| 15 | Montreal | 50.1% | 0.923 |
| 16 | Phoenix | 49.8% | 1.231 |
| 17 | New Jersey | 49.8% | 1.083 |
| 18 | Philly | 49.6% | 1.286 |
| 19 | Buffalo | 49.2% | 1.231 |
| 20 | Toronto | 48.5% | 1.357 |
| 21 | Tampa Bay | 48.1% | 1.143 |
| 22 | Calgary | 47.9% | 1.000 |
| 23 | Carolina | 46.7% | 0.929 |
| 24 | New York Islanders | 46.3% | 0.833 |
| 25 | Anaheim | 46.2% | 1.077 |
| 26 | Dallas | 45.3% | 1.538 |
| 27 | Minnesota | 45.2% | 1.308 |
| 28 | Edmonton | 44.4% | 1.385 |
| 29 | New York Rangers | 44.3% | 1.308 |
| 30 | Nashville | 43.1% | 1.231 |
Now you'll notice two quick things about this chart:
1. First, The teams you'd expect to be in the top of the league, for the most part, are the best possession teams.
2. Despite #1, a whole bunch of teams aren't doing as well in the standings as we'd expect from their ability to drive possession forward.
#2 seems like a contradiction. If possession is so important, why are both Dallas and the Rangers below the Islanders? The answer brings us back to shooting percentage. In both Dallas and NYR's cases, both teams have managed a supernaturally good shooting percentage this year. However, remember what we said above....in the short run, high and low shooting percentages are mostly flukes. Both teams' #s will drop, and as they do, their inability to drive possession will cause regression - making both teams fall back to the pack. On the opposite side of the spectrum is Detroit, who is dominating possession but can't get the puck in the net at a good rate. They're likely to bounce back. Detroit's decline this season is just an illusion. Fear the Red Wings.
Of course a second factor is what causes the oddities such as Dallas, NYR, and of course Edmonton this year to stand out despite being abysmal at driving possession: Goalie performance. All three teams have had ridiculous goalie performances thus far. To some extent, the Rangers can count on Henriq Lunqvist keeping them in games despite their awful play - though he's not a .929 goaltender. But Dallas' Kari Lehtonen and Edmonton's Nikolai Khabibulan are NOT goaltending stars and both of whom are going to collapse hard. And with them, both of their teams will collapse. These teams are not dominating, they're just getting really lucky with goaltending. Luck runs out.
Unfortunately, the Isles' poor offensive (and defensive - since keeping the puck in the opponents' zone naturally reduces goals) performance is NOT likely to regress as the sample size increases because they've been abysmal at keeping the puck in the offensive zone. Only the Rangers are worse in the Eastern Conference at getting the puck where it should be - in the offensive zone - and the Isles are 23rd overall. In fact, the Islanders' possession numbers looks identical to last year's Islanders' possession numbers - INCLUDING the numbers from our horrible slump. If we remove the horrible start from last year's numbers, the Isles this year have been worse. Quite simply put, if the Islanders' inability to drive possesion continues, the team is very likely looking at a 14th place finish.
But it's still early! Things could very well change, and in fact they should. But for us to figure out what the problem is, and for the team to change things to fix the problem, it has to figure out what is the cause - or who is the cause - of this possession problem. Assuming I have time (a big if, I'm sorry), in parts 2 and 3 of this series we'll look at what are the likely causes of the problem.
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Really interesting..
it’s going to be interesting to see at the end of the season, going back to this post, whether this “formula” is applicable.
Enlightening...
That was good, garik…I hope we find an answer to this lack of puck possession…Is there gonna be some improvement??
I’m sick of listening to asshole Rags fans so hopefully they will begin to faulter due to their horrible possessions time…
Looking forward to parts 2 and 3 but
isn’t this like saying: “Hey! I know why you have been having those headaches that make it impossible for you to concentrate at work! You have a brain tumor!!”
If puck possession is such a central element of hockey success and the Isles are lacking it (and I am not disagreeing with this notion), aren’t you basically saying that the team sucks?
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Nov 8, 2011 4:53 PM EST reply actions
Quite possibly
But not necessarily since 1) it’s early and 2) a few changes can theoretically help. In theory, if the coach is trying to run a certain gameplan and, as Capuano has claimed, certain players aren’t playing along, then they could either be brought into line or removed. I do think there are some players underperforming, which could be cause for a rebound. (Alternatively: Those players aren’t as good as expected.)
Personally, I read inability to maintain possession as the terminal diagnosis of possible problems (others being luck, injuries, randomly poor goaltending/shooting (so luck), tough schedule). So my read of the headline was: What’s Wrong? They’re Not Good.
A lot of this, to me, comes back to the blueline. The team is doing okay keeping pucks out of the net right now, but I don’t think they have enough defensemen who are competent at moving the puck the other way and preventing the puck from coming their way.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Agree in part, but the nominal forwards have also looked frightfully inept at (1) gaining and then (2) keeping the offensive zone, even when they have been given a decent transition through to the neutral zone.
=d
Agree, many chickens and eggs
I suppose every discussion like this peels back to “Well if Eaton could complete a pass” → “Well if Comeau could receive a pass” → “Well, if anyone could complete a cross-ice pass” sort of spiral.
And of course hockey is fun because a couple of powerplay goals can make everything feel better. Until that wears off.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Experience cannot compensate for slow in the neutral zone
preventing the puck from coming their way
Staois last night was a perfect example. When you get older and slower you still want to make the play to keep the offense alive, so you jump up to play a neutral zone puck, but there is that slight hesitation. You then get burned and you know who your man is and you skate as hard as you can to make the right play, but your legs just won’t do what you want them too and you can never regain defensive position. There’s only one thing to do, flip the net after the puck goes in.
The next time, you sit back and play the 2-on-2 in your own end instead. The puck may not go in immediately, but you stay out there longer and the opposing team has to play less defense and wears you down a little bit more. They slowly create more in-zone chances and need less odd man rushes to generate opportunities.
This in a nutshell is what life is like for a slow, old, underskilled defenseman that has relied on positioning, but is now too slow to make up for missed plays. I know how Staois feels becuase I see that defenseman in the mirror after every game.
by Hockey1919 on Nov 8, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Amen
Although my sympathies for you seeing Staios in the mirror. (He is kind of a handsome man, I guess.)
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I keep telling that a-hole to get out from behind me because it is creepy, but every time I look in the mirror he's hanging over my shoulder.
You didn’t think it was me I was talking about did you? I’m a fleet, svelte, 21 year old.
by Hockey1919 on Nov 8, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Me too
My knee feels 100%, nothing hurts when I wake up, and I can go all night long.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Jambo jambo.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Nov 9, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
HAHA
Very funny! Rec’d!
Proud to root for the Jets, Mets, and Islanders!!!
Twitter: cmauceri524
Bart Scott: "I’m sure now there will be something written about how the Jets are back, and we won’t listen to that either, because at the end of the day we know that you guys don’t know what the hell you’re talking about."
by CharlieIsles on Nov 9, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
(He is kind of a handsome man, I guess.)
Dom, youre making Staios blush!
(But yeah- hes a pretty good looking guy.)
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Nov 8, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
As with all my posts about a current event, there's an unwritten word at the end of the title:
“AT THE MOMENT”, or “NOW.” So yes you could say that I am saying that the team sucks AT THE MOMENT. But we kind of knew that already. This post basically explains WHY they’ve been failing in the most general sense, before going into specifics later.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Did we?
But we kind of knew that already.
Did we really? What was their corsi during the Golden Age (i.e., Winter of 2010-2011)? My rough logic on what to expect this year (and that of many other fans) was based on extrapolating from that period plus Streit and the other additions. Were they lucky then
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Nov 8, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
Mind giving me dates for the "golden age"?
At a certain point the team got worse results wise, but from some duration we often heard the “second best record since XXXX.” I think the injuries in the last 15 games didn’t help.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
As I said...
…Winter of 2010-2011 (or more precisely, December 16 through March 22).
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Nov 8, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Not very good either (basically the same as this year)
Which follows Keith’s bit below. BenHasna had a great image which you can see below, which showed the possession numbers stayed the same all year, but our luck fluctuated from horrible to good.
(The red line on this graph is Possession Percentage (Corsi) over a ten game period while the blue is goals fielded/goals allowed ratio).
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Just when I thought...
this couldn’t get any more ridiculous. Could somebody get that chart to Capuano. I’ve never seen a better diagnosis of what’s wrong with a hockey team.
…how did the Islanders perform against the S&P?
LighthouseHockey: We saw this coming!
@JPinVA
by JPinVA on Nov 9, 2011 8:29 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
You do like talking about luck, don't you?
Although of course nothing of this is meant to diagnose what exactly is wrong with a hockey team, the following chart is even more telling re what was driving their success in various stretches last season:
You can see PDO, which is just the aggregation of save and shooting percentages, in green there – basically, that’s their “luck” line and however maybe the single-most useful stat in hockey. Then you can see a somewhat consistent Corsi there (red) and a highly volatile goal ratio (blue). Apparently, in the short-run the “luck” was a major driving force behind their inconsistent success.
That’s not at all the whole story of course, even the whole article doesn’t cover nearly everything. But it is a good hint why extrapolating from their best stretch last season might lead to disappointment.
That said, this season they’ve underachieved a bit due some “bad luck” involved with their shooting. Right now, -3 would be a more correct reflection of their EV play (excluding empty-net situations) than -7. They could have got an additional win. That would not really be good enough, either, though. And of course the big concern there for me is that the schedule won’t get easier and the roster most likely not better without major moves (the not unlikely boost from some call-ups might be offset by important players getting injured, etc.).
by BenHasna on Nov 9, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
all that needs...
are bollinger bands and an ad for Scottrade under it.
LighthouseHockey: We saw this coming!
@JPinVA
Eye-opening
I really wonder if the coaching staff and front office understands this. Snow’s offseason strategy suggested that he was extrapolating from last season’s second half success where we had three solid goal scoring lines and all that was needed was some tweaking and defensive help (a view I as well as many other fans shared). If their success was basically luck and this assumption was mistaken, that kind of sucks.
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Nov 9, 2011 9:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I remember last year
the team won a great many games in which they were outshot…which could (correlationally) mean that last years binge may have been hugely “luck inflated” right?
The flip side of that may also be true which would mean that there were just wild variances in luck/shooting percentage?
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
that can be score effects as well
A team with a lead tends to be outshot: they won’t take as many chances to create offense and the other team throws everything at the net.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
And you're not terribly hopeful for (much) improvement, right?
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I actually am quite hopeful.
I’m perhaps too optimistic.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
I was going to ask from what sources (personnel, regression, tactics)
but I think I know based on this:
In fact, the Islanders’ possession numbers looks identical to last year’s Islanders’ possession numbers – INCLUDING the numbers from our horrible slump. If we remove the horrible start from last year’s numbers, the Isles this year have been worse.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
This statistically bears up two theories I have had
1. They don’t forecheck very well (I said it was broken)
2. They don’t transition the puck out of the zone very well.(the defense makes panic passes since they are slow or not big enough to fend off the forecheck)
I’m sure there are plenty of other people with the same theories, but I have not liked their forecheck for some time now. They do not gain the zone and sustain pressure.
Against the Caps it looked like Nielsen line in particular was not dumping into the zone, but was passing diagonally across the slot and they seemed to have had success, but with Okposo and Grabner on that line earlier this season it seemed to result in passes through the low slot that resulted in a transition by the opposing defense.
This doesn’t seem to be the same scheme as the other lines use. To my untrained eye, it looks like the stroing side wing does the dumping and the chasing. The weak side wing stays up high looking for the turnover. This worked last night with Grabner swatting the puck back into the zone to JT to get the puck back for Grabner’s goal. This works because Tavares knows how to pressure the Defenseman and can create turnovers behind the goal line. With Bailey’s line you have a lot of trouble getting pressure on the defenseman and the forechecking winger just chases the defenseman out from behind the net to clear the zone with Comeau and Rolston somehow both on the strong side (pre-line swap).
With Bailey’s line you have a lot of trouble getting pressure on the defenseman and the forechecking winger just chases the defenseman out from behind the net to clear the zoneEver since you brought this up the other day I keep replaying instances of it (from before and afterward) in my head. Thanks … jerk.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Wow, that was supposed to be blockquote, not strikethrough
I need a nap.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I love when statistics tell me what I have been seeing.
When the stats don’t agree, I blame the statistics, of course.
keep replaying instances of it (from before and afterward) in my head. Thanks … jerk.
I guess this image is better than two Islanders colliding three stooges style, I’ve only seen that three times this year, once for Mo, Larry and Curly. What gives me hope is that an adjustment in forecheck scheme or getting guys to follow it may improve things. I’m curios if the Devil duo in particular are used to the left wing lock and have difficulty picking up the a new forecheck. You know the old dog, new tricks thing.
We knew they would suck, really???
I think we all expected a team that can battle and compete. So far this team looks like shit, plain & simple… I’m starting to think its due to the oldness on the team…What is Garth thinking right now?That’s what I want to know…Isles fans deserve a word from the GM…Unless he has no answers…Did he really think the vets he signed were gonna make this team better?He signs vets that are old and ready to retire…He needs to get some vets that are capable producers..If not then just play all youth…Call up Wyshart, deHaan and some of the young promising forwards… .Come on now!!!
by KO21 on Nov 8, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I never thought it would be this bad.
Then again I never thought our D was good, I thought our offense was great, and I thought our goaltending would have been shotty. It’s weird, but this season could be worse then I expected it could have been without major injuries if this trending continues. It’s crazy.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Think it supports what I’ve posted a few times on. They are weak on the puck. Lose battles, get easily separated when they have it, and cannot separate when opponents have it. Look at those top 6 teams… the word strong defintely comes to mind
by 7:11_OT on Nov 8, 2011 5:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
See how Tavares anticipates and positions himself between the defender and the puck.
The kid really knows how to read the play and get his body between the defender and the puck. It isn’t a big hit, it is playing the stick when the defender is at his weakest. That and phenomonal puck control once he has it. We’ve seen him steal pucks at center ice this year from players that are known to be faster, but he cut the right angle on them and stripped them. You just can’t teach that level of hockey sense.
We have a lot of forwards that just may fail the hockey idiot test. Fire the puck around the boards and see who chases it around the glass and who cuts across the ice to pick it off. Seems simple, but I see a lot of forwards reaching behind the net with their stick and arms extended, when they could be cutting the defender off instead.
Indeed
We’ve seen him steal pucks at center ice this year from players that are known to be faster, but he cut the right angle on them and stripped them. You just can’t teach that level of hockey sense.
It’s really fun to see. Man, as his physical side catches up with his hockey mind, ooh lala, sasoon.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I remember when we used to say this about Kyle Okposo :(
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
I think looking at how JT has worked on his skating and battle for pucks is making the others look even worse. Its like, he is already so good and he worked so hard to improve, WTH are the rest of you doing, playing video games?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Nov 8, 2011 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So what I'm taking from this is,
the isles are likely looking at a top 10 draft pick/10th-12th finish in the east if the odds work themselves out a bit, and at worst a top 2-5 draft pick if thinks continue to hiccup along the way on offense and defense with our problem players so far.
Correct???
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Is it too early to look at the draft?
I would love a top 10 pick for a defenseman.
Constantly building for the future.
Way too early.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Nov 8, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Its not too early
I wouldn’t mind a top ten drafted defenseman in the upcoming draft. That is a desire, not a prediction. I would rather have the Isles do well, but if they continue to play poorly, then I wouldn’t mind drafting a defenseman with a high draft pick.
All Who Oppose Grabner Shall Perish.
Still think it's too early. Things can easily change fast, and new personnel is undoubtedly coming...the question is when.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
I hope you're right but it looks like they suck.
They just aren’t playing hard. And if they can’t show up now, there’s no hope. I don’t care who’s coaching them. The talent level just doesn’t stack up to the rest of the league. Play Montoya and DP and lest move forward giving the team the best chance to win
DP will be good again... written 9/6/11. Now thats a prediction truly believed!
by themass on Nov 8, 2011 6:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's extremely early, but the way thinks have worked out so far, this is what the numbers are pointing to correct?
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
U thinking new personnel through trade or call-ups?
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Call ups.
I’ve said from the start that only 3 of our starting D-Men this season would be in our 6 starting d-men by the end of this year.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Opinon, do you think wishart's last year was a fluke or do you think the kid has the potential to maintain his level of play last year?
And from what you’ve seen of DeHaan and Donovan this pre-season/training-camp, do you expect them to even be close to playing par in a bottom 4 d-role this year?
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
Last year Wish looked good
He looked like he played himself out of a spot in the preseason however. Any word on how hes doing in the AHL?
Constantly building for the future.
Subpar Defense Corp
I think that’s been the main problem. Eaton, Staois, Motteau (when he’s been in there), and Jurcina (whose play seems to have regressed, maybe due to his injury) don’t skate the puck out of the zone particularly well, and are not really capable of joining the play to add that extra attacker on the rush. It’s all passing to get out of the defensive zone, and point shots in the offensive zone.
For all their faults in the defensive zone, Hillen and Reese were more capable as puck-moving, join-the-rush defensemen, generating more offensive pressure overall. Heck, even Martinek fell in that category.
What this team needs are more talented, defensively capable versions of Hillen and Reese. Donovan, Ness and deHaan better improve quick.
last year/second half
we had better play because other teams were hurt, and we had a mini surge of health from those like Grabner who could capitalize on the rest of the league’s petering out
this year, we seem to be the ones playing very hurt as the season started – really have to wonder how many of our players simply should be on IR or have regressed physically post injury recovery (Amac, KO, Streit, Mottau, Eaton ,Jurcina, etc.)
you see this in baseball with pitchers coming off injuries never being the same – the concern here is that this is a much bigger issue than we thought would be the case and in some ways we need to start over aside from the obvious JT, etc. building blocks
the D to be sure is a huge issue in this
why we suck
a very slow Defense means we have the puck less – and a terrible, clueless 3rd line doesn’t help either
in many ways, that’s enough
would be interested to know if there’s some way to figure out puck possession line by line
Lines 1 & 4 are probably close to break even, Line 2 has been below average/unhelpful vs expectations, and Line 3 a nightmare
I am really digging the new Cary K.
Makes me look like mr. brightside!
=d
by AP77 on Nov 8, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
sparked by
what seemed like one of the more promising teams in franchise history (and may still be over the next few years)
instead, sukcing all the oxygen out of the room
Offensive Individual talents and weaknesses
One thing I have noticed this season so far is that most of these guys are not personally playing THEIR game. Of course there are systems in place that are worked on and set up for the team to follow on a whole BUT, with the exceptions of the 2 or 3 guys mentioned here every day (Tavares, Martin), these guys are not using their individual talents to contribute. The wins come when they do. I’m not talking about line chemistry here. I know there are factors keeping them from utilizing their talents SOMETIMES, but It looks to me like the fellas lost their identities a bit. To name A quick few off the top of my head……
Rolston- This guy is supposed to have some kind of slap shot right? We saw it the other night against the Caps.The teams official site has him listed with 24 shots (4th most on the team) but where is the BIG shot that breaks masks and had goalies ducking out of the way? I guess he only pulls that one out at team practices.
Grabs40- I know he is a slow starter at the beginning of the season, and he does have a few goals, but it seems like he has had trouble really getting that open space push that he had last year. Finishing was never his strong point, but still.
Moulson- I have not noticed him around the net front like he made his presence known last year. Yea, maybe he’s there, but he’s not THERE.
KO- As noted numerous times here already this season. He’s supposed to be a hitter right? There has been alot of talk about toughening up and needing bigger guys? Okay yea, bigger guys, but they have a few bangers who just are not doing what they were signed for.
Comeau- can be placed over there under the not hitting hitters category too right? Cappy already sat him for a few this year. The “power forwards” are all out of power
I also noticed that they (as a team) are not accepting passes. This is different from the BAD passing that has also been contributing to the offensive zone possession time. And you can say the Coli has “bad ice” but I have been noticing this on the road games too. So many times this season i have been seeing passes just bouncing off of, or over the blades of sticks. Passing is a two way street. Its not like those sticky velcro tennis ball catch n throw sets. You have to receive the pass as well as it is sent.
Maybe This doesn’t have as much to do with the offensive zone possession percentage as it does with the overall diagnosis of their problem in my eyes. And maybe I’m stating the obvious but hey, doesn’t everyone?
by Strong Island Thuggery on Nov 8, 2011 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting you mention the passing b/c I noticed that too.
I know there is a skill to accepting a pass but I wonder how much is just luck or small sample. But it’s definitely noticeable.
I think the more likely reason is that b/c of the lack of possession, there’s no flow to their game or space in which to work. I think it causes them to be ‘off’ just a half second, and if you’re trying to accept a pass when you haven’t been skating, it better be perfect.
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
I've wondered about the ice myself.
We know the NVMC has bad ice but I’ve wondered if it really does affect the passing (and the skating). And if they get used to playing on one type of surface does that mean they are making passes and possibly skating differently than they would in other arenas with different ice? But then when they get to a quick ice do they have to re-adjust – and are they able to? Is that why they fall so much in some games and skate so slowly in others? Is that why passes look like rockets and they can’t catch them? How much does that play into their game?
Grabs and Moulson
Grabs: He usually loses 5 pounds or so by the ASB…I know he came into camp lighter than usual but maybe he’ll have that “push” you mention by then.
Moulson: I always see him around the net. He has an excellent release and plays with JT so it’s just a matter of time b4 he gets the bounces
"I can't really hear what Jeremy (Roenick) says, because I've got my two Stanley Cup rings plugging my ears." - Patrick Roy
Yep, but I'm optimistic the 2nd line can improve. The D? I think its a talent and age issue there. The 3rd line? Sigh....
I’m not that hopeful that they’ll be any good but they can be better than awful.
Very nice
I enthusiastically approve of both the analysis and the easy-to-read language.
And as long as I’m commenting, I think I’ll use this opportunity to try to talk you into joining my project.
1. When the puck is in the neutral zone, more often than not the puck is heading toward the Islanders’ Defensive Zone.
2. When the puck is in the offensive zone, the Islanders are having problems KEEPING it there as they try to get shots on net.
3. When the puck is in the Islanders’ defensive zone, the Islanders are having trouble getting it out and thus are giving up too many scoring chances.
If you were tracking zone entries, you’d be able to separate these things out. This article, for example, seems to be almost exactly what you’re hinting at, separating out offensive, neutral, and defensive zone contributions to generating/preventing shots. Email me if you’re interested.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Well done Garik!
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
honestly, if they would simply dump and chase they would have much better odds, compared to their current and consistent try at dragging the puck across the opponents blue line, where in, the puck gets consistently stripped within the next 6ft from the blue line….depressing to watch, game in and game out
Oh man, Garik, turns out you're wrong...(via Newsday)
Coach Jack Capuano, still unhappy after Monday’s defensive lapses against the Bruins in a 6-2 loss, is leaning toward giving Mike Mottau some playing time after the defenseman spent the last five games as a healthy scratch. “I’m sure Mike will get in there sooner rather than later,” Capuano said.
/facepalm
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Why?!?!?!?
WHYYYYYYY?!?!?! seriously, Its not like Eaton or Jurcina have been particularly good but theyre still both better than Mottau
"Mario Lemiuex… I used to respect you."- Turgeon1992
Maybe its like when you were little on a long road trip and your dad threatened to turn the car around and go home if you didnt quit screwing around? Thats what Im telling myself anyway.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Nov 8, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
But I didn't do anything!
Why am I getting punished?
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Nov 8, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Or maybe you’re being punished for fostering the cesspool of incivility that I’m told — by idiots :)) — that this place has become.
=d
by AP77 on Nov 9, 2011 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Who is telling you that?
Since you brought it up and want to talk about it.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Nov 9, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Will you stop touching me?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Nov 9, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Well it'll motivate whoever is scratched.
Or it better.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
by garik16 on Nov 9, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Got to love JT
“We’re only two games under .500, so there’s no need to panic and feel like we are playing terrible hockey and we’ve lost our game or our identity. We have to be better in some areas and that will give us a good chance of winning and breed some more confidence. But definitely we want to win more hockey games and have to win more hockey games if we want to get to where we want to be, so there’s a lot of room to improve and be better in a lot of areas. But it certainly doesn’t feel like last year and I don’t really think that is in any of our heads.”
So, in short, you think you have to win some games?
by DP'sknee(andhipandflubugandotherknee) on Nov 8, 2011 9:41 PM EST reply actions
yeah but .500 point percentage is not average anymore
We have 4 wins and 8 losses. 2 of those losses are the OT variety.
Build from the back
I haven’t been able to watch every game but from where I see, the biggest problems involve the defense not being able to control the puck, keep it in the offensive zone and find open players. If the defensemen can’t become offensive players then it’s 3 against 4 or 5 and goals aren’t happening. Too much deadwood (please, no cowboy photos) on the backline. We need players who can help generate puck movement.
The second problem is bad neutral zone play. Loose pucks are lost. The other team gets to it first. They go 75 feet to score but we have to go 125 every time. That’s a losing recipe.
And finally, we don’t have very many accurate shooters. The 7% is misleading. How many times do we miss breakaways? Hit posts? Just shoot wide? Those have to be on net and create rebounds (or go in the first time). That’s why Ryan Strome was such a good pick. We need some snipers, not a bunch of grunts who don’t score and are better suited for fourth or fifth lines.
There’s some good core talent but not enough to work with.
Cue the discounted ticket deals
in 3…..2…….1…….
Thanks for bringing attention to this Garik. RANT TIME!!!!!!!!!
it’s clear as day watching the games. Their breakouts are awful. The defense is constantly making panic plays up the boards where the winger can only chip it back out to center ice, only to allow the opposition to retrieve and advance again.
There’s no support on the puck at all along the boards. It can’t be that they just don’t know how to cycle or where to be, more likely it’s that covering up for poor D play in their own zone, and having to compensate for that take players out of position. When they dump in (if they don’t turn it over at the blue line) they’re changing instead of chasing, and if they do chase, usually a forward is still trying to get out of their own end.
And then there’s the neutral zone. GET THE PUCK DEEP PLEASE. Nielsen (sorry Dom) has been one of the biggest offenders, but PAP, Bailey, KO, have all been guilty of trying to make lateral passes thru defenders in the neutral zone only to have them deflected and stolen only to short circuit the rush.
It’s pretty gloomy as of right now with Eaton and Staios getting regular shifts. With AMac and Streit and Jurcina seemingly still working their ways back from injury. With Rolston and Bailey and KO sleep walking thru games. But, we’ve seen almost this exact team, minus Streit, drive play and possession. Hopefully they come around again.
Katic is a big injury right now. They need someone with speed and puck skills back on defense right now. He would’ve been a nice option right now. Garth missed out on Erhoff and tried to fill in with senior citizens and is paying the price while waiting for the BPT kids.
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
jeez could I have said 'right now' any more? Sorry about that
"It don't make you a bad person" - Ron Bennington
Diagnosis
Patient: Doctor, I’m depressed, I’ve been having problems at work, we all seem to be in a collective slump, just can’t help my coworkers out of this rut, it seems hopeless
Doctor: The Diagnosis is simple! The islanders are in town tomorrow, see John Tavares play and that will make you happy and bring you excitement.
::Patient buirsts into tears::
Doctor: What is it? Whats wrong?
Patient: Doctor, I am John Tavares!
by Isles2011 on Nov 9, 2011 9:03 AM EST reply actions 9 recs
I laughed until I cried
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
Good joke...everybody laugh.....
Roll on snare drum…..curtains……..
"Mario Lemiuex… I used to respect you."- Turgeon1992
ha!!!!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Nov 9, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Curious
How do you generate the offensive zone % from Corsi numbers? (I googled it quick, but didn’t find anything-btw your Intro to Analytics 4.1 was the top hit, maybe this was slated for 4.2?)
Tavares is Tavares.
Corsi approximates it, so OZ% = Corsi in this case. (the correlation isn’t 100%)
Here’s a good link for it: http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2008/08/zone-time.html
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
I feel dumber now
because I actually read that one, but I still don’t get it. For example, if I total the Islanders CorsiREL I end up with -57.5, which I would guess would come out to a 42.5 offensive zone %, but that doesn’t match up, so obviously I’m using the wrong data or screwing something else up…
Tavares is Tavares.
Yeah, Corsi REL is completely different. That’s a measure of each player on ice vs off ice, and it’s per 60 minutes. That’s not a percentage, so it’s not translated that way.
Where garik gets the numbers from in this case is here: http://www.timeonice.com/mplayershots1112.php?team=NYI&first=20001&last=21230&hv=0
It’s a script so it takes a few seconds to load, but at the bottom will be the team number (46.3%). You’ll also get the number for each individual.
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
One note
There will be discrepancies between the TOI script and BTN data. TOI I believe runs all even strength situations (5v5, 4v4, 3v3), while BTN is 5v5 only.
So for instance, TOI comes up with -5 for Frans Nielsen (+1 goals, +2 saves, -8 misses, even blocks). BTN has him at -1 (12GP * 11.95 TOI * -0.42 CORSION / 60).
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
BtN is 5v5 and 6v5, I think.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Nov 9, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
He includes empty nets? Interesting, didn’t think that was the case.
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Probably more accurate to say “he hasn’t gotten around to removing empty nets yet.” But yeah, if you check team stats there’s no 6v category, starts from 5v5, and the times all add up to 60.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Nov 9, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Aahh ok
I see how they get that number now. Awesome-thank you.
And it seems like that % isn’t generated on the timeonice single game sheets, but doing something like http://www.timeonice.com/mplayershots1112.php?team=NYI&first=20200&last=20200&hv=0 works. Is that generally the easiest way to get it for single games?
Tavares is Tavares.
If you want the percentage, yeah, it’s that, or download it to excel and put formulas in place to do the math.
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
It might be faster to go game-by-game and tally up the goalie’s numbers (I haven’t actually tried)
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Nov 9, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
It ended up
being pretty quick to just put in the single game ID as the first and last game to generate individual game data, but I was only doing a dozen games, so I could see it getting tedious for a lot more…
Tavares is Tavares.
Nice job Garik
Thanks for putting the work in on this one.
Proud to root for the Jets, Mets, and Islanders!!!
Twitter: cmauceri524
Bart Scott: "I’m sure now there will be something written about how the Jets are back, and we won’t listen to that either, because at the end of the day we know that you guys don’t know what the hell you’re talking about."
Excellent Garik...........
good research and writting. Can’t think of anything to add – but I will make a comment that is probably not pertinent. Scoring chances are what really. count as well. They are driven by good skating, hard fore and back checking in both zones. IMO so far we have played a soft game as measured by PIM. Yea you don’t score much on the PK, but other teams do score against a team that is playing the way we did against Boston. True they are a top team, but we beat the Caps because they were tired and probably took us lightly. We can’t count on that. I say come out harder and take the occasional offensive zone penalty say around the net on both ends of the ice. Gain respect and maybe our talented [on paper] forwards will come thru with more goals. Its the only way to win and IMO one of the main reasons we are losing. Of course the D situation needs help big time.
Check the league Stats
Yes we are near the bottom in size along with in the standings – Gee I wonder if there might be a coincidence working here?
This has been fascinating.
Thanks for writing it. Will be interesting to see how all the different factors play out as the season progresses.
Oh eally
It seems to me the guys who were effective the 2nd half last season are pulling more pine this season. Montoya should be the starter! The players who finished the 2nd half, rally to him. Okoposo seems out of sync since coming back. Streit has made some good passes but needs to shoot more. Three goalies are too much distraction on the team. Due the age and money, I’d trade DP and Nabby and take the risk with Montoya. When DP is healthy, he is awesome, but then you never know when he is going to go down. Nabby gives up to many easy goals, as in the Boston game. Why do you think the Sharks didn’t want to pay him! Overall, the team seems uptight. Again Taveres gets cheap shotted by the Penguins and again the team isn’t backing him up. Stop the pussy footing around and play some damn hockey! It’s a game after all. Stop thinking so much! It’s skating, passing the puck, shooting, defense, and goaltending. But it still starts with SKATING! Use your youth!
by Madswede-Turtledove on Nov 9, 2011 12:47 PM EST reply actions
Awesome stuff. My thoughts -
When will the NHL finally start keeping puck location time?
Columbus has got to accept that Mason is not the guy. They are not a bad team but their goaltending is execrable.
The Rangers look horrible by this metric. Have they been lucky?
Why are the Rangers and Ottawa hyperlinks?
The Rangers look horrible by this metric. Have they been lucky?
Probably. What should be mentioned and I’m too lazy to read through everything to see if it was, score effects play a role in Corsi here. Not that it helps the Rangers, who are also bad with the score tied by this metric, but that’s a factor.
Goaltending helps. They also protect leads pretty well.
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
For anyone interested
in the game by game breakdown (as I was), I totaled it quick:
11-7 @BOS L6-2EN 40.3%
11-5 vWAS W5-3EN 45.5%
11-3 vWPG L3-0EN 52.6%
10-29 vSJ L3-2OT 52.5%
10-27 @PIT L3-2SO 42.2%
10-25 vPIT L3-0EN 54.9%
10-22 @FLA L4-2EN 40.0%
10-20 @TB L4-1 38.7%
10-15 vNYR W4-2EN 53.2%
10-13 vTB W5-1 47.4%
10-10 vMIN W2-1 44.6%
10-8 vFLA L2-0 41.5%
I’m sure this is one of those things that is more useful over a season, than a single game. For example, there are some games where the % is misleading, such as the win vs. TB where we were up big early and sat on it, while TB piled on the pressure in an effort to come back. On the flip side we won the possession battle in the loss to WPG, but I bet the scoring chances came out ahead for them. We had the puck a lot that game, but we didn’t do anything with it.
That said, there are some interesting numbers:
Only 4/12 games over 50%. Our record in those games is 1-2-1, but I imagine a lot of us who watched would say we played better than our record in those four games.
No games over 10% better than opponents (better than a 45-55 split), but 6 where we were 10% worse. In those 6 games we were 1-4-1. The lone win was MN which I think most of us would agree was stolen by Montoya.
Fun unrelate fact: half of our games have had an ENG. We are 2-4 in games featuring an ENG.
Tavares is Tavares.
Man
we have like 3 guys that haven’t even been on the ice for an even strength goal. (Comeau, MacDonald, Gillies ans several who have probably only been on for one: Hamonic, Bailey)
How flukey/lucky are the Sv% and shooting% numbers in a 12 game sample? Does anyone know what league norms and highs and lows generally are?
Some noticings…Amac and Ham have very high sv%…shutting things down nicely, or getting lucky?
Highest sv% guys, Matt Martin and Josh Bailey…who are now on the same line…conincedence?
DP has the highest corsi% on the team…obviously a small sample, but dare I say, maybe he does help drive play forward? (/throws things)
Mottau’s corsi% is terrible…probably from all of that laying down, sucks that Cappy is thinking about playing him again. But maybe he is a good luck talisman because the team shooting percentage and sv% is unreasonably high considering his corsi%.
I’m gonna go vomit now.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
How flukey/lucky are the Sv% and shooting% numbers in a 12 game sample?
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com/2011/10/how-much-of-shooting-percentage-is.html
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Faceoffs could be another proxy.
A good possession team will have more offensive zone faceoffs than defensive zone faceoffs. Where can we find that statistic?
You can run them game by game for the team: www.timeonice.com/faceoffs1112.php?gamenumber=20001 (enter the correct NHL.com game number at the end).
BTN has a summary for each player also. http://www.behindthenet.ca/2011/new_5_on_5.php?sort=6§ion=zonestart&mingp=&mintoi=&team=NYI&pos=
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by George E. Ays on Nov 9, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Another thing I noticed
Despite all the poor corsi stuff, most of the team has been outscored by less than two goals at even strength. Those outscored by more than two…
Comeau -4
Okposo -5
Reasoner -3
Nabokov -6 (goalie, with lifted during bad outing)
Amac -5
Hamonic -5
The thing about Hamonic and Amac is that again, their sv% is pretty damn high at .950 and .940 respectively…despite that the team is shooting at 0% and 1.1% with them on the ice. Comeau has a similar issue with a .943 and 0, but a lot of the shooting % is his fault :)
Anyone think it’s interesting that this is exactly the third line now? Perhaps Cappy is using some advanced metrics…perhaps not, but interesting that the worst of the lot ended up together.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Nov 9, 2011 2:11 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Yea
I guess you can chalk that up to strong goalie play? Even though we can’t get shots, and score even less, two of our goalies have played above league average (or had until BOS).
But still, with a -10 differential as a team, you’d think it would be spread out a little more…
Tavares is Tavares.
by afrosupreme on Nov 9, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Also of note
in the Caps game, those three were primarily with Streit/Staios, and in the Boston game, were with Amac/Ham
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Coincidence? I think Cappy is smarter then we think he is. Then again, that Mottau getting ice time quote is baffling a bit, unless he has the balls to sit staios.
What do you mean they won 4 cups in a row? Is that possible?
by OzzyFan on Nov 9, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
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1979-80
Source: Uploaded by user via NYIslanders on Pinterest
May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
