The Miseducation of Josh Bailey?
Two points through 17 games isn't the worst point total on the season. But a nine-point pace for the season wasn't exactly what the Islanders had in mind when they drafted Josh Bailey in the first round four years ago.
There is a popular theory going around Islanders country that management mishandled the young center, exposing him too early to the NHL game and stunting his growth. Other fans point to his being flip-flopped form center to wing as a reason for his curious decline.
But the more logical explanation for Bailey not measuring up is that maybe he was never going to be as good as people thought he was.
There seemed to be higher than normal expectations put on Bailey coming into his rookie season. Unfairly or not, there are two reasons why people were expecting so much from the young center.
The first reason people expected so much of Bailey was because Garth Snow thought high enough of him to trade down twice before drafting him, making us believe that he was that much better than the players available to Snow between picks 5 through 8.
What people tend to overlook is the possibility that instead of Bailey being that much of a better player than the players drafted before him, maybe it's just possible that Snow didn't think any of the players drafted before Bailey were that good, making Bailey the best option of a sorry lot. Being the players drafted before Bailey, which includes fan wishlist topper Nikita Filatov, have combined for a combined 160 NHL points so far, this idea doesn't seem to be too far off.
The second reason for Bailey's high expectations was his inclusion to an Islanders roster at the age of 18 that was in need of some huge upgrades and hope for the future. Fans were thirsty for new blood to help turn around the team's sorry play, and Josh Bailey just happened to be stepping in at the time. But again, instead of Bailey being THAT good that he cracked the Isles lineup, it seems more likely that the other options at the Islanders disposal were just plain bad.
It didn't help much that Bailey was Garth Snow's first 1st round draft pick, giving Snow extra motivation to force feed Bailey down our throats, to justify both his drafting prowess and the fact that the Isles traded down twice to grab his choice.
Historically, the NHL success rate at the number 9 spot in the draft doesn't bode well for Bailey's future either. Here is a list of the players drafted at the number 9 position in the draft between 1989 and Bailey's draft in 2008:
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Forwards: |
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Logan Couture |
Robert Petrovicky |
Tuomu Ruutu |
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Todd Harvey |
Josh Bailey |
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Patrick Poulin |
Michael Rupp |
Brett Lindros |
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Petr Taticek |
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Defenseman: |
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Dion Phaneuf |
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Jason Marshall |
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John Slaney |
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Goalie: |
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Brett Krahn |
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Besides Logan Couture's rookie season last year, the best offensive total out of the number 9 spot in the past 20 years is defenseman Dion Phaneuf's 17-43-60 season. The roster above is a group that in each of their primes, believe it or not, would have serious trouble beating the Islanders today. And seeing how poorly the Isles have played this year, that's saying a lot.
The fact of the matter is, drafting at the 9 spot in any draft is a crapshoot, especially when you choose to slide down that far. The chances of Josh Bailey ever becoming an above average player in this league was low before he ever stepped on the ice. Heck, his chances of being a serviceable NHL player was 50/50.
The Islanders have been patient with Bailey. Despite his lack of production this year, he has yet to be a healthy scratch, although this could be due to a lack of depth at center on the NHL roster. Even so, it could also be a little persuasion from the top that has kept Josh in the lineup.
It's time to stop blaming the Islanders' handling of Josh Bailey and start looking at the cold hard facts. I realize he is still very young, but at this point it may be better to look at Bailey like every other player drafted at the number 9 position: A project who will most likely never turn into the player we hope he'll become.
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Hmmm... Nice post but got me thinking.
There are 30 teams, the average length of a career is about 6 yrs and there are 20 guys on each team give or take. So each team loses about 3 guys to retirement or aging or career ending injury per year. That means the NHL has to replace about 90 guys per season. The 9th overall pick should be a pretty good player by this logic.
Should be, but don't the odds trend toward 50/50 as the 1st round progresses?
I don’t have the various studies on hand, but I think I remember it moving toward 50% playing something like 200 NHL games as you move deeper in the first and into the second. (Sorry, I should look this up but it’s late.)
Even if I’m generally recalling right, that doesn’t change that you should hope to get something with the #9.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
I think Bailey has shown us enough flashes to know that he's capable of being a productive NHL player
Take this shift as an example from last season. This was during the stretch after he came back up from the AHL and was streaking. He looked to be a confident and capable NHL player for that period of time and he flat out dominated the AHL.
I don’t think the problem with Bailey was that he was rushed, I think he is one of the “country club members.” We’ve already seen him play slightly better after becoming demoted from the 3rd to 4th line. Last season he responded when he was demoted to the AHL. He needs a kick in the rear to get going when he shouldn’t have to.
I honestly believe that he needs to have a chip on his shoulder to get motivated and as a result play well. Some guys like JT have an insane drive to get better every day, Bailey is a guy who I think needs to be singled out for under performing in order for him to respond. There’s the adage “hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard,” Bailey has enough talent to be an NHL player but he needs to wake up and realize that isn’t going to be enough for him.
You wouldn't believe how good the Corsi is for my NHL 12 Be A Pro player.
I completely disagree!
“Bailey is a guy who I think needs to be singled out for under performing in order for him to respond. There’s the adage "hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard," Bailey has enough talent to be an NHL player but he needs to wake up and realize that isn’t going to be enough for him.”
Haven’t you seen those Isles commercials? Dude has a serious shirtless chain work out! ;)
by GreekIsles83 on Nov 23, 2011 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Oh no!
That means his sweat might’ve been spray-on?
I will never love again.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Nov 23, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
I think I wouldve had more respect for him
if he was doing curls with a bar with two cinder blocks on each end. Push-ups with chains are for amateurs.
We're all Islanders...except maybe the guys who are rumored to get traded.
by Chris McNally on Nov 23, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
And he has to catch a live chicken.
If he ain’t Rocky, he ain’t good enough.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Nov 23, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Funny little story
I read that comment as “Ricky” instead of “Rocky” and laughed hysterically because it would’ve been the best comparison as to what he looks like in net: a guy chasing a live chicken
by sayvillelax94 on Nov 23, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Josh Bailey
I’m not sure that Josh would have been a better player if he had a few extra years at the other developmental levels. But I am sure he would have been a different player. Josh played on three teams so far that weren’t able to get past a top 5 draft pick. Last year he landed on what became the third line with enigma Blake Comeau and a revolving door of RW’s. .. and a defense that was held up by 6 players with less than 200 NHL games… most of them were playing in their first 50 NHL games.
This year he has basically landed in a bottom six role, and I can’t remember a three game stretch where he had the same two linemates. This is a problemsomewhat of his own making. It is also a situation which will perpetuate bad numbers unless they settle into a long term solution.
The team really needs to start looking towards long term solutions, and building lines that can be evaluated with 5-10 game spans… and factor in how bad the defense is. So they need to look at how the 3 forwards perform in regards to EFFORT and not PRODUCTION. Until Mottau and Staios are replaced, and Streit and Macdonald are back to their highest level of play ALL of the forwards are going to come under undue scrutiny.
I really think Josh will be fine… he’ll be a solid middle six forward… unfortunately, we may have to see him become that player in a different uniform.
LighthouseHockey: We saw this coming!
@JPinVA
Bailey/Bertuzzi
This Bailey scenario reminds me of the Todd Bertuzzi debacle. Fans crying on a daily basis how he was a bust. We all know how well Todd did after his departure from long island. Bailey is a prime talent, always has been, always will be . When the Isles coaching brass or the coaches of the team he is traded to, finally figure out a way to put him on a second line with someone that can finish and compliment him on his incredible passing skills ,than you will see Josh bloom into a viable nhl point producer. He is not being used properly at the moment. This kid can produce offense if given the role of feeding a sniper.
by TonyT1 on Nov 23, 2011 6:15 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
You hit the nail right on the head
Its hard to be productive when you are constantly relegated to the 3rd/4th line duties, at least with respect to offense. Put Bailey on the first or second line for a month and lets see what happens then.
Isles rule, rangers suck... that's just how it is.
I concur...
Using the Bertuzzi comparison, he played with Markus Naslund and Brendan Morrison for a few years.
A far cry from Jay Pandolfo and Blake Comeau.
Send down
If people feel that Bailey was rushed and he is not productive at the moment, why not send him down and finish the year at Bridgeport? Its not like he is going to make or break this team, send him down and let him play some meaningful games and let him get some top line experience that he will not get at the NHL level.
He has to clear waivers
They’re not going to risk Bailey getting claimed off the waiver wire, which is where they’d have to first place him before sending him down.
by Daniel Friedman on Nov 23, 2011 6:51 AM EST reply actions
Um, maybe we should have him cover a ROBERTA FLACK song then?
Seriously, I think that, as JP alludes to, Bails needs to have a much stronger, more motivated supporting cast – crazy question: might it be worth trying to put him up on the 1st line again for a spell? JT can both pass AND score; with either Moulson or PAP as the other wing, Josh might get a much-needed boost of confidence…..
In memoriam: Virginia Ariel Cayon 1927-2011 R.I.P. Mom
I would like to jump on the whacky trade bandwagon because why not
Bailey for Kyle Turris? Players who need a change?
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I wouldn't do it this sason under any cicumstances
That guy has already missed 20 games. Expect a slow start and a groin/hamstring pull complete with being relegated to lower lines and some scratches until he “gets into the flow” of his 15 point seasons.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
by Keith Quinn on Nov 23, 2011 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Which is more than Bailey is on pace for
And are we talking about rebuilding or saving this year? I’m hardly advocating this trade because I still have hopes for Bailey, but a change of environment might be the best thing for him. Turris is an incredible crapshoot but it sounds like he’s miserable in PHX. Bailey has shown he is capable of more, but what happened? You’d have to think Turris has still yet to find his own groove.
Support Movember: http://mobro.co/YourUncleNops
by Uncle Zenon on Nov 23, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I guess the question is
why, if we’re willing to give Turris the “yet to find his groove” treatment, why not apply that to Bailey…who over his career has been better than Turris?
I get what you’re saying though, sometimes changes of scenery work, but mostly, I hate picking up guys that start the season late. In fantasy football, I predicted the horribleness of Chris Johnson for the same reasons. They either get hurt or they stink…unless they’re Crosby.
Bailey has been much better recently and his line with Martin has been a bright spot for advanced stats recently…I’m not sure what Turris’ defense looks like.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Isn't it also possible ...
that he’s simply a ‘late bloomer’ ?
It happens. Some guys just take longer. Including guys who begin at 22 and 23, nevermind 18. As long as his attitude is good and his teammates have his back, no way they should give up on him. And sending him down now would help nothing. I’m with TonyT1 up there on this. When the GM grabbed him he saw Bailey as a dependable, two-way second line center with strong playmaking ability. I’ve always seen him in the Brent Sutter mold and I still do. I’m a little disappointed and surprised he hasn’t gotten there yet. I also agree with TonyT1 that it would have been better to have Bailey settled in with regular linemates by now if he had progressed more quickly, but unless the GM comes up with a great deal that includes him going the other way, I still think that a couple of years from now, when he’s just starting his prime years, Bailey can be what the GM thought he was getting.
Its definitely possible
But for every late bloomer you get 20 non-NHL players. There is always a chance he can turn out to be a good, productive player. The point of this story was that the odds of that happening based on history arent good. We all (80% of us at least) spit venom at Josh when he doesn’t produce like he was a can’t-miss prospect who is missing, when in reality he is a prospect who is more likely to miss than not, and we should probably go a little easier on him and curb our expectations.
We're all Islanders...except maybe the guys who are rumored to get traded.
by Chris McNally on Nov 23, 2011 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
Drafts have been always been ...
a crapshoot, in all sports. Even ’can’t miss’ sometimes miss. Snow felt strongly enough about Bailey to go to lengths to get him, but I’m pretty sure he knew it wasn’t a sure thing. He took a shot. The ‘venom’ from the 80% is purely because of what Snow gave up and because Bailey’s progress is slow to come. I happen to be in the other 20%. I’m less patient with Comeau and now with Okposo than with Bailey, for a couple of reasons. And I still think his upside is upper than either of those 2 guys.
Back to wing asap
The experiment of moving him to wing should never have been abandoned. He is just not good enough to be a 1st or 2nd line center, and his style of play does not fit the 3rd or 4th line either. Move him back to wing asap or this kid will be completely useless by next year.
He's just not that good
The kid looks lost at there. He doesn’t respond well to forechecking pressure, makes a lot of mistakes on the puck, passes when he should shoot, doesn’t look at the net very much, and is mostly timid and afraid to make the impact play, preferring to play it safe.
I don’t know why they re-signed him in the off-season.
If anything, you need to look at what the hell is going on with Kyle Okposo. I think he’s the one who was overestimated. I think we all kind of know Bailey sucks.
The Enigma
I was one of Josh Bailey’s biggest defenders during the off season. I felt the Islanders have done a grave diservice but bringing him up right away.
1. Never projected to be a #1 center was projected as a possible 2nd or 3rd line center.
2. He was physically not ready
3. Last season played 52% center 48% wing
4. Besides Comeau revolving line mates including Sim, Schremp played the most games with him.
But my caveate was that he had to prove himself this season. Well he has not even come close. He has shown no heart at all. That is what bothers me the most.
By trade deadline if he does not change it is time to cut our losses. We might regret it in the future but it will be time.
here's the deal
some players can start in the NHL at 18 without a problem
Jeff Skinner
Tyler Seguin
etc
what’s the list of players ‘ruined’ by starting them too early?
I think this is more of a baseball thing, and an excuse for players who simply weren’t going to make it either way
Bailey dominated at Bridgeport last year – he had nothng to learn there – he simply doesn’t have an NHL game, or hasn’t been coached properly – something tells me he’d be just ffine under Jacques Lemaire – I hope he gets a chance to be a 3rd or 4th line two way forward for some other franchsie – we don’t need him to be that
Its hard to disagree with any of the points people are making
Lets face it. He’s switched positions numerous times, he was “rushed” to the NHL, he was drafted by Nolan, Played for Gordon and is now playing for Cappy. Minus the “position switch”, he sounds like the NHL Version of Alex Smith of the 49’ers. Smith was labeled as a Bust for so many years and is finally now starting to come into his own. I don’t doubt that there maybe a psychological issue with Bailey as he has been so heavily criticized and probably questions everything he does. I do think that Bailey may come into his game down the road, but I have to agree that I don’t think he has what it takes to be Center. I don’t expect him to be a franchise winger anymore (yes, I thought that when he was drafted), but I do believe he can be a serviceable above average player. I do like the kid alot, but sometimes I just question what happens to his game. I remember last year that he started out so hot, playing hard and creating scoring chances out of thin air. I thought, oh yes finally! Then he just fell off the earth and reverted back to his normal mediocre play. No clue what it is. Coaching, Skill (which I don’t think he lacks), or maybe he just doesn’t have the drive to be a great player in the NHL. As much as I am rooting for the guy, I do think that in a year or two, we should give him a change of scenery.
You should've seen her face. It was the exact same look my father gave me when I told him I wanted to be a ventriloquist.
By the way everyone
Happy Thanksgiving in advance!
You should've seen her face. It was the exact same look my father gave me when I told him I wanted to be a ventriloquist.
It's about his linemates
Some people, like Tavares, can step into the league and have the talent be strong enough to start out young in the NHL. Bailey from what I see, has the talent, but it needs to be groomed and not able to step in at a young age. Put him on a steady line with solid veterans who can work and teach him, he would grow like wildflower. He played a lot better the other night when Comeau sat out. I think Comeau is so inconsistent, that it affects Bailey.
Comeau may have sat out
but for the past two weeks Comeau has been playing on the third line and Bailey on the fourth, so Comeau’s presence or lack there of shouldn’t have affected Baileys game at all.
I think hes been playing ‘better’ lately because of his reduced role as a checking center and reduced pressure to produce offensively because of it.
We're all Islanders...except maybe the guys who are rumored to get traded.
by Chris McNally on Nov 23, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
baily
is maddening because after tavares he’s the most purely talented and overall skilled guy on the team. and you see flashes of it. you just cant give up on that yet.
filatov
i think there’s a lot of people that wouldn’t mind seeing him on JT’s right at this point…
PA’s points are solely from playing with talent above his own, and JT would have 50 more points if he played regularly with guys closer to his level… and if you wanted to make Bailey a winger, then y not have him play with JT then? the two have a little dangle and he could probably get the puck to JT as well as the opposite
instead of trying to get him to lift up a 3rd line to respectable levels, we need to give him a shot of adrenaline playing up top
These comments crawl up from the depths of the deepest Chasm of Saar
I definitely prefer Bailey + the picks to Filatov right now
Sounds like two NHL organizations (CBJ, OTT) wouldn’t mind seeing him on JT’s wing right now.
[Opens can of worms] Do you really think PA’s points are solely from playing with talent above his own?! Are you fist-f#$%ing me?
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Nov 23, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Yeah (about the Filatov thing... I'm not touching the PA debate with a 40 foot pole)
We have watched Garth Snow make apparently all the big mistakes a GM could make, but he’s made each mistake exactly one time. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve watched him do the following once and once only:
1) Trade (at least at the time) blue chip prospects and picks for a rental
2) Bring up a non-first-overall pick to play with the big club (Bailey)
3) Draft a European who’s already signed to a long-term contract overseas.*
4) Bring in a bunch of old veterans for “leadership” when what he actually got was “immobility.” *
I’m figuring that #2 above is why Nino and Strome were sent back to Juniors shortly after drafting them, and that overall we won’t see these things happen again. He seems to be a fast learner, but he has to make the mistake first before learning his lesson.
** Well those will be only times those things are done, right??!?!
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Nov 23, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Asterisk fail.
Naturally, since I put two asterisks after both lines 3 and 4, the internet decided I wanted to bold line 4.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Nov 23, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Internet fail brought to you by SBN autoformat
Interesting way of looking at it. Hmm…
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Ahh, the PAP debate
he who is actually outscoring JT since he’s been moved off that line.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Management
As much as I like Wang for what he tried to do. it almosts seems as if he is trying to run this team on ice like Jerry Jones does the Cowboys, except that JJ probably knows what he is doing. Think about what happened with the Yankees when Steinbrenner was suspended for the Winfield incident. Or better yet, just think about the Islanders own history, when the Pickett family let Torrey run the team, we excelled. At this point, I think the only fans that really care about the Islanders are the ones in Quebec. There is plenty of blame to go around for the Isles predicament, starting with Gary Bettman and his faux laissez faire attitude to league issues. First and foremost, the Coyotes should have been back in Winnipeg and Atlanta off to the ice tundra of QC. With all the talent that the Isles have drafted over the last few years, why do we keep getting trumped by teams like Dallas who were supposed to suck this year but all of the sudden are on top of the league? The formulae seems to be the same but the results are vastly different. WTF? Is is culture, management, luck? The fact that I post means I care, but why should I?
My problem with the Bailey pick is I don't believe he wasn't even rated in the Top 10 that year.
If I recall, he was ranked around 15th. If you’re going to give up your Top 5 pick and continually trade down only to over-reach, which seems to be a Snow tendency, then why not keep trading down or trade the pick for another player? It’s almost as if SnowWang is drafting to keep costs down. JT is the obvious exception, but I believe that if Snow could have gotten away with trading that pick without being hung upside-down from a tall tree by his Wang, he would have done it as well.
What the fuck happened to the Isles I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh?
It's a good point
I think part of it is, you still don’t know who’s taking whom at what spot (just like no one knows when the Isles are at 5 that they’d rather have Bailey + picks than the non-offensive D of the “big four” D). Being live at the draft last summer was interesting, because with people talking around me — People Who Know Things — as each pick came off the board you could hear multiple somersault arguments declaring what that pick meant for the next team. There are competitors talking to media to send smoke signals, competitors talking to competitors to make a deal, and competitors issuing poker faces lest their other competitors find out info to leverage against them with still other competitors.
Another part is you only have certain teams willing to trade up. So wanting to drop down to 12 is one thing, actually having the guy at 12 willing to give you something to move up to 9 is quite another.
I do think there’s a pattern of reaching, though I think Bailey was less of a reach than de Haan and possibly equal to the Nino reach. None are extreme reaches, but seem based on some desire to really feel like they have a “good fit” or “character” or whatever it is they’re looking for.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Nov 23, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Of course you have to have a willing trade partner, it's a given.....
but the “fit” or “character” they they are looking for is cost containment. If they reach, they can pay that 6-10 pick a lower ELC, which then saves them more cash as a RFA. I might give you that Bailey wasn’t that much of a reach, but only compred to DeHaan, who was totally unexpected by those( me included) on that draft thread that thought Snow had traded UP to take Kulikov. Yeah, that Defenseman-type guy that is in his 3rd NHL season and really hasn’t done too bad on some struggling Panthers teams. Except this year he has 15 points in 20 games. But he takes DeHaan, who everyone knew wasn’t ready and would be an extensive project.
What the fuck happened to the Isles I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh?
by FireGarthSnow on Nov 23, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions

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