Bits: Islanders Need More than Bettman Bonus Points
by Dominik on Nov 11, 2011 2:11 PM EST
in Bits o' Islanders News
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PrintThe deceptive allure of the NHL's version of ".500" is it's so polluted with shootout wins (and losses) that it's not a meaningful target. And that's not because "Hey, 4-4-3 is actually 4-7, 'cause you LOST those breakaway drills!"
Rather, it's because the NHL takes what is usually a two-point game and, when tied after 60, makes it worth 50% more: Suddenly a whole standings point is determined by the coin-flip or, as sometimes ... happens, officiating incompetence.
So 82 point after 82 games isn't .500 anymore. (Granted, this is not exactly news.) Failing to add points above your games played total is how teams quickly fall behind. Applied to the Islanders' record, one extra win or two SO/OT losses instead of regulation losses would have the 4-6-3 team at a nominal points parity position of 13 points in 13 games.
Which still isn't good enough. If the players look at that cosmetic record and say "just two wins and we're 6-6 and on our way," then they risk missing just how productive you have to be to even be in playoff contention in this league.
They need to start winning four of six, reduce regulation losses and hopefully steal their own share of coin flips. The quarter pole is 7-8 games away. Going 5-3 would put them at just 9-9-3 after Thankgiving, at the 21-game mark, which is usually only good for fourth place at best in any division.
Not Last Year
What's overlooked by the fans understandably having nightmare flashbacks to last year, at least record-wise, is 2010's 21-game death march was marked by just three OT/SO losses. The Islanders weren't just "losing" in the NHL's ambiguous definition of the word, they were failing to pick up points at all, piling up 17 regulation losses in that stretch. (Incidentally, their "strongest" stretch in that streak was a three-game run where they lost in OT to Atlanta and Columbus and mercifully, finally, won a game against New Jersey. Three bad opponents.)
So yeah, they can rightfully tell themselves that a mere 4-6-3 start is "not last year," not by any stretch.
But what is this year? In preseason I had them down for not making the playoffs but for keeping themselves in that bubble conversation until the end. That's not a bad step in a rebuild where many of the gems are still on the farm or in juniors, after another summer where your Martins and your Ehrhoffs refuse you flirtatious advances.
Alas, it won't be very meaningful if it requires another second-half resurrection (unless that resurrection were led by the eventual successors to the current underperformers).
We're a few weeks from the quarter pole. Red Wings GM Ken Holland always says he doesn't know his team until Thanksgiving. The day after Thanksgiving, the Isles will be at 19 games and begin a home-and-home with the Devils -- after playing the Canucks, Rangers, Flyers, Bruins, Penguins and Canadiens in the interim. They were 4-12-5 on that day last year. What'll it be this time around?
Links of Diversion
- Post-Game Coverage, Avs 4, Isles 3 (OT): Our recap and plus/minus | Mile High Hockey | Newsday | Denver Post's gamer and "Avs saved Sacco" piece; Also: combatants Matt Martin and Ryan Jones are old friends, which might explain their not-quite-violent fight | Okposo Net | NYIFYI
- Newsday bit from Staple saying Andrew MacDonald's offense needs to come around.
- Botta on potential changes, and realistic questions...
- ...and Botta with Jaffe on identity, physicality, call-ups and such.
- FanShots: The 3rd jerseys are coming Nov. 16 | On the Bettman-Fischler interview aired last night (but taped a couple of weeks ago) | Cablevision's HD appeal denied
- Flyers-Lightning-gate: Guess which side Lemaire is on? | Oh, and longtime ref Kerry Fraser doesn't appear to know the rules on this any better than anyone else ... problem is, he thinks he does.
- Watch Ryan Strome in the [mass sandwich] Super Series.
- In praise of Strome.
- The All-Star Game ballot, if you care. Here are the Islanders who made it.
- A critical look at the absurd Pekka Rinne extension: Driving Play: A Look at the Pekka Rinne Extension
- Fun stuff here, Jack Johnson is the one who stands out to me as cold, hard truth: The 7 NHL players with mind-blowing career plus/minus ratings - Puck Daddy
- Grab-bag of topics: Five Hole: Playing 'breakout or fluke' with Corey Perry, John Tavares and a pair of Maple Leafs - NHL - Sporting News
Goalie Dramas: From 6 to 4 in 60 Seconds?
Mikko Koskinen is not on the trip for Worcester today, but no update on whether there is a loan for him in Finland. Follow Michael Fornabaio there for that and for blow-by-blow of today's Sound Tigers day game.
Evgeni Nabokov has not been asked to waive his no-trade.
To quote Fat Sam (George Wendt) in "Fletch": "When it comes, it comes." So chill.
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I would say the problem from an analytical perspective isn't so much the one point given for being tied after regulation, but rather...
the NHL’s desire to end ties, and adding 4 on 4 for five minutes of overtime, and then a shootout…while exciting, neither of the latter is “real hockey” while the former is…no such thing as 4 on 4 periods beyond the 3rd, or SO in playoffs.
In the not too distant past, both teams earn one point after a tie, and there was no 4 on 4 overtime or SO.
by CanadianIsleslifer on Nov 11, 2011 2:45 PM EST reply actions
Memories...
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
the picture is really high on the accidental humor
They look like an ad campaign for chocolate milk.
We’re the Islanders! Be sure to drink your Ovaltine!
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
by mikb on Nov 11, 2011 3:42 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
At first I thought it was a typo
Ovaltine sounds so weird. In Switzerland it’s called Ovomaltine.
Still bummed it’s not in Swiss hands anymore. A Swiss institution in British hands :-(
The original Ovomaltine
by Francesca on Nov 11, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Whoa! Never knew that
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
In the SEL
They give 3 points for win during regulation. 1 point if you draw during regulation. 1 extra point if you win in OT or shootout. Obviously 0 points if you lose in regulation.
Works out pretty good actually.
Been praying for that for years now.
Mathematically, it just makes sense. Bettman talks about how teams stay close to one another in the standings, and that it creates excitement, but it only does so for people who are bad at math. If your team is three points behind the final playoff spot with four games to go, you’re not making the playoffs. It looks close, but not when the other team can get a point each night just by playing tight.
Yet another Moulson brother-in-law.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Nov 11, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
That's not even really true
As of 5 pm tonight, the top 8 teams in the East are separated by three points: Pittsburgh and Toronto at 21, Rangers, Panthers, and Flyers at 19, and Sabres, Caps, and Lightning at 18. But without the shootout and the extra point, the top 8 teams would be separated by only ONE point – the Leafs and Panthers would have 18 each, and there’d be a six-way crowd at 17.
Same in the West: currently it’s Dallas at 22 and four different clubs (places seven through ten) tied at 17. Translate to the old-school rules and presto! The Stars go to 20 and the sixth-eighth teams all have 16. One of the teams out of luck would be the Wild – from a tie for fourth at 19 points (8-4-3) to a tie for ninth at 15 points (6-6-3).
Funny, isn’t it, how actual .500 isn’t always good enough for the playoffs, but NHL-.500 isn’t? The Wings, for example, don’t make the playoffs now at 7-5-1, but with only one pity point (an OTL), their actual record is 7-6, and they still would be short of playoff position by two points (albeit with games in hand over LA, who is in eighth).
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
No, 500 is 41 wins.
Not 82 points. Two different things. Just because the NHL pretends they’re worth the same, they’re not.
We’re 4-9. We need to go 37-32 to finish 500. Totally doable.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
I'd go with 4-8-1
That shootout loss is really just a legit tie.
It’s time to fire up the Real Standings again.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
by mikb on Nov 11, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not counting ties.
Because then you have to discount shootout wins, which I think most of us won’t do for a bit.
If you’re consistent, you can count em.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
Exactly what I do
So (to take an example) the Devils are 7-5-1… except three of the wins are from shootouts. Without a shootout, the Devils would actually be 4-5-4. Winnepeg would also be in difficulties, from 5-8-3 to 4-10-2 (one shootout win, two OT losses).
One of my favorite features of the Real Standings is the ease of figuring out the difference in points: NHL points – SOW – OTL = points you would have before Bettman points existed.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
Which decade are you referring to? You missed the use of "anymore"
Back when there were ties and no extra points, .500 was 82 points:
40-40-2
36-36-10
…et cetera.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
by Dominik on Nov 12, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So now
it really should be 123 points, since every teams technically has 246 available to them. You just need to ensure each game goes to overtime before you win…
//shakes fist, curses Bettman
Tavares is Tavares.
by afrosupreme on Nov 12, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
No, you can still only get a maximum of 2 pts in a game. So the max pts is still 164. But once you get to overtime
you can win but you can’t lose. So some of those losses for those old-time teams would have been OTLs and so would have garnered a point. Its very difficult to compare pt totals to the previous era because some game award 2 and some 3 and its not a predetermined, set, portion of games that are worth 3. Some years there will be more 3 point games than others. The lower the scoring environment the more 3pt games there will tend to be because a lower scoring environment leads to more games ending regulation tied. Recently its about 22% of games going to OT and therefore being worth 3pts. 22% of 82 is about 18. The average team will win half its OT games (a mathematical necessity, one team wins the other loses, always 1 OTL for each OT win). That will mean an additional 9pts. So the average point total is 91. That’s the new .500. 91pts. There are 15 teams in each conference and just over half make the playoffs, 8 of 15 so 91pts should get you in but the conferences are not always equal so in the stronger conference you may need 95 or so and in the weaker conference 87 will probably do the trick.
The Shootout has just mucked things up more than ties ever did...
Here’s my biggest problem with the “OT Loss”: Used to be, if a team lost in the paltry 5 minute sudden death period, the winner got 2 points, as well the should, for notching a legit W and the loser got an L, because they lost the game, simple as that.
Then came the “OT Loss”…suddenly, a team that legitimately lost a game in the paltry 5 minute sudden death period gets a point…What?! They lost the damn game!
On top of THAT, they throw in a rinky-dink skills competition (um, why don’t you just use the old WHA 10 minute sudden death OT if you really want to cut down on ties?) at which point the “winner” of the skills comp gets TWO points (for a tie?!) and the “loser” gets…a point…for…a tie.
They want fewer ties, go with the old WHA’s 10 minute sudden death OT; the only system EVER, in modern pro hockey that’s produced teams that registered full seasons without a tie: 72-73 Philly Blazers, 73-74 LA Sharks, 74-75 Nordiques AND Aeros, and the 75-76 Aeros.
They want more penalty shots? Hey, I seem to recall they also want to crackdown on rough play. Expand the penalty shot rules to include egregious hits. Tack a penalty shot on to all majors except fighting. Whatever, just don’t turn the games themselves into a damn joke.
10 minute sudden death OT, expanded penalty shot rules (maybe you can tweak them for OT, make it a sort of “Double Jeopardy” to heighten suspense in OT, and that’ll probably take care of most ties and most importantly: A Win is still a legit win and a Loss is still a legit loss.
Anything’s better than the system they have now.
John Tavares: Loyalty. Character. The power to put every sports writer in Toronto on anti-depressants just by signing a piece of paper.
My rec league actually did away with shootouts
Nobody liked them. They now have a short 4-on-4 OT, and that’s the game.
We may be in the box, but you get the penalty.
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
Non-hockey scribblings at nightflyblog
Not having a flashback to last season.......
But having one of two seasons ago. From what I have been able to watch, this team looks older and slower than it did last season. Not something you’d expect at this point of a rebuild. There is also no heart for some reason. Never passed Mindreading 101, so I’m not going to speculate what’s in everyone’s head. But even during the losing streak last season, there was SOME emotion. I recall Rollie getting fired up and really going off a few times out of frustration. Somebody needs to get mad as hell and not take it anymore! I’ll settle for a stick breaking when slammed against the boards at this point.
"Is that all you got, I'll take your best shot......Here comes the BOOM!"
I remember after the game against Winnipeg they showed the Isles walking into the tunnel. They did not look happy.
They looked extremely frustrated and dejected. They looked like they cared, a lot. In the middle of a game its hard to tell what their emotions are. If they are losing its always going to seem like they are not trying hard enough or that they don’t have enough fire. It just always seems that way but I don’t think its true. If you score everyone’s happy and excited if you get scored on you’re deflated. Its a result of what happens, not the cause.
by TMS on Nov 12, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OTL=T and PPG must = 1.1
At the end of 60 mins. both teams have a tie. The OT is a chance for an extra point for one of the teams (quite absurd actually), but the other team still has had a tie during the game. It is the same point that teams used to get for a tie! Of course the bonus points inflate the standings and thus the competition, but statistically the difference is probably not all that great.
The upshot:
We need to look at the average points per game of each team and how that works out over 82 games to compare. This would mean (as of today), just taking the Atlantic as an example:
GP PTS PPG PROJ
Pittsburgh 16 23 1.438 117.875
NY Rangers 15 21 1.400 114.800
Philadelphia 15 19 1.267 103.867
New Jersey 14 15 1.071 87.857
NY Islanders 13 11 0.846 69.345
The be assured of the playoffs, a team generally needs at least 90 points. This means that a PPG of around 1.1. The good news is that the Islanders “only” need to win four in a row and they would be over this percentage. Of course, they don’t have to win the extra games consecutively.
Sorry if this all seems obvious to anyone, I just thought it was a good way of looking at things. I never understood why NHL standings did not include a PPG stat.
by Paumanok on Nov 12, 2011 6:15 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
OVALTINE!
Awesome that I’m not the only one who remembers that stuff. I might have been the only one of my friends who loved it growing up.
I get why making the playoffs is a big deal and how it would be a tangible sign of progess. I want to see games April and May that matter too, and hear the Coliseum quake, but at this point, I’m more concerned about credibility than the exact # of point they’re gonna need to sneak into the tournament. I think the pivot point for the GM’s rebuild is RIGHT NOW. The next 30 or 40 games are gonna tell us if the plan really is taking hold or not. I think some changes are called for now to give what’s supposed to be the core it’s best shot to coalesce. If the GM makes them and they don’t help, uh-oh, that would be more than a bump in his road. But he risks derailment if he proceeds with no action in the guise of patience. The main thing I want to see is for these guys gel into a real team (like we saw Boston is) and establish a real identity rather than a particular number of points by a certain date, because if that happens the wins and the points will come.
Ovaltine? Maybe they should've called it Roundtine.
Official choice of Lighthouse Dog #1.
by Fabtraption on Nov 12, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Time to see some Bridgeport
I would really like to see someone like David Ullstrom get a look soon. He’s been doing a great job in the A.
JPinVa = Botta
In Botta link, he recommends:
- Waive Pandolfo & Mottau
- Reduce Rolston playing time
- Call up Dibo & Haley (add toughness)
- Get rid of 3 headed monster goalie situation (trade Nabokov)
Exactly what I’ve been reading from JPinVA. Ah ha! JP is really Botta!
Or Botta reads LHH
or that plan is obvious to us on the outside.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Nov 12, 2011 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Only part I may disagree with
Rolston has played 2 of 3 good games (good effort) with his new line. I wouldn’t mind seeing him a few more games there. If he fizzles out, as is likely, scratch him. But getting good play from Rolston would be a bonus for this team.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Nov 12, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Wishart & Hillen
I would bring up Wishart (couldn’t be worse that Mottau, Eaton)
Also, Why did Isles get rid of Hillen??? yeah, he would get beat in front of the net once in a while, but at least he could skate with the puck; often leading charges into the offensive zone.
by JoRiverside on Nov 12, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
LOL
Thanks. ;)
I really should have left some kind of Rosen or COZO-type of easter egg.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Some news
Emphasis mine…I guess this absolutely is a problem for the goaltenders…which becomes a problem for the team
ChrisBottaNHL Chris Botta
Evgeni Nabokov will gladly report to any #NHL team planning to have him as one of 2 goalies this season.
4 minutes ago
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
See I didn't think he would go to Columbus
But I guess that means he would. It definitely gives Snow more options. Of course Eklund rings in with the crazy rumor of the week that Vancouver will move Schnieder and pick up Nabokov. That’s probably the last place I could imagine him going.
No Sleep 'til....Belmont?
Yeah
It looks like he is resigning himself to this year being a “lost year”. He is either playing here, or somewhere else, but bitching about it isn’t making time go faster…and truthfully, the 3 headed thing may be speeding his departure along. If it wasn’t a 3 headed thing, I could see that in Nabby’s mind, he would want to get out, but be much more selective about where because at least in the mean time, he would be playing more often.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
