Silver Lining? Islanders 2011-12 Scoring Chance Update
by Chris McNally on Oct 27, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
in New York Islanders Report Cards
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It's hard to be positive for any professional sports fan who sits through a full game of watching their team fail to get on the board. The possibility of encouragement has to sink even further when that shutout is the third of three straight losses. But if I were an Islanders fan (oh wait, I am) I would be encouraged going in to Thursday's rematch against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Yes, the Islanders got shutout. Sure, many of our ears are bleeding after having to sit through 60 minutes of Paul Steigerwald and Bob Errey's "commentary." But the effort put forth by the Isles was much better than what we saw on the Florida trip. The execution by the team was better. And finally, even though we put up a goose egg on the scoreboard, the scoring chance differential was better.
The numbers for the Florida games were so bad that I didn't want to post them by themselves. I have a strict policy of never being the guy who delivers the news that causes someone to take a 30-story dive off the roof of a building. The Florida numbers were horrific enough that I couldn't make any promises.
Luckily for my conscience, and the Isles immediate future, a different team showed up on Tuesday. Below on the left are the players scoring chance numbers for the two Florida games and on the right are the numbers for Tuesday's game against the Pens (COI stands for Chances On Ice):
|
Player |
COI For |
COI Against |
COI +/- |
COI For |
COI Against |
COI +/- |
|
|
Tavares |
7 |
16 |
-9 |
10 |
6 |
+4 |
|
|
Moulson |
8 |
13 |
-5 |
9 |
6 |
+3 |
|
|
Parenteau |
7 |
15 |
-8 |
8 |
6 |
+2 |
|
|
Nielsen |
7 |
10 |
-3 |
3 |
0 |
+3 |
|
|
Grabner |
5 |
9 |
-4 |
3 |
2 |
+1 |
|
|
Okposo |
8 |
8 |
Ev |
3 |
1 |
+2 |
|
|
Bailey |
1 |
4 |
-3 |
2 |
5 |
-3 |
|
|
Comeau |
0 |
3 |
-3 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
|
|
Rolston |
2 |
7 |
-5 |
3 |
1 |
+2 |
|
|
Reasoner |
6 |
6 |
Ev |
4 |
1 |
+3 |
|
|
Martin |
4 |
3 |
+1 |
4 |
2 |
+2 |
|
|
Pandolfo |
3 |
6 |
-3 |
4 |
2 |
+2 |
|
|
Streit |
11 |
17 |
-6 |
6 |
4 |
+2 |
|
|
Staios |
8 |
14 |
-6 |
5 |
5 |
Ev |
|
|
MacDonald |
5 |
12 |
-7 |
7 |
7 |
Ev |
|
|
Hamonic |
4 |
9 |
-5 |
7 |
6 |
+1 |
|
|
Eaton |
2 |
8 |
-6 |
5 |
2 |
+3 |
|
|
Mottau |
2 |
8 |
-6 |
5 |
3 |
+2 |
You'll notice that both the 1st and 3rd lines, as well as the bottom two defensive pairs, all managed to generate more scoring chances in the Penguins game than they managed to create in two games combined on the Florida trip. Its also very encouraging to see that the number of scoring chances against were down, with all but four players having a positive scoring chance differential (led by John Tavares' +4), and only two players having a negative differential (led by Josh Bailey's -3).
While Pittsburgh may have capitalized on more scoring chances, the Islanders did manage to outchance the Penguins 18-13. The encouraging number is that the Isles outchanced Pittsburgh 17-11 in 5 on 5 situations. That is a vast improvement from getting outchanced 6-13 and 8-17 while at even strength against the Panthers and Lightning, respectively. With the lackluster 5 on 5 play from the Islanders so far this season, maybe they are starting to realize that they can't rely on special teams to account for all of their scoring.
So while a loss is still a loss, maybe it's time to hold up on all the talk of line changes or personnel moves. Maybe we should give this team a few more games to see if the Islanders have started to turn the corner offensively. Because the play of the Islanders in Tuesday's game is a good sign entering the last week before November. Especially for all of us fans who still have the memory of our 1-7-3 November of a year ago fresh in our minds.
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Good stuff
They did look a heck of allot better but they didn’t get allot of 2nd & 3rd chances off of rebounds. They can’t be looking for the fancy , tic-tac-toe, goal…Those will come but they can’t force it. It seems like when they start scoring that they start to look for the perfect plays and they fall away from what made them successful in the 1st place…They need to keep chipping pucks deep, winning on the fore check and get pucks to the net and looking to bury rebounds….Dump and chase is the key. Fancy passes at the blue line will come after the opposing D starts cheating, by leaning back, expecting the dump and chase in the corner. That will give them room to skate it in and pass…But they can’t force it!
Well said. The One of their biggest issues is what we see in the pic above…there’s only one man crashing the net. We need much more net presence and that can be done with intensity and drive. They all say it, but they’re starting to piss me off with how little they do it.
Grow a pair of balls boys!!!
by Empire39 on Oct 27, 2011 10:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Chris when you track this
you are getting the time of the scoring chance and everyone on the ice correct? I want to look at some point to see how the F/D pairings are working to inflate/deflate scoring chances. It seems unfathomable to me that Eaton/Mottau can be in the positive, but I’m assuming that they got those inflated totals by being on the ice at the tail end of a 4th line shift (4th against 4th) and remaining out when the 1st came on (riding the backs of JT/MM/PAP).
In the Pittsburgh game, it looks like Amac/Hamonic was the primary D pairing with the 1st line (10+ minutes of even strength ice time) while Striet/Staios was used with the 2nd and 3rd lines (with only a little over 4 minutes with JT). It’s interesting usage suggesting that they want the more “defensively responsible” line out with JT (where the offense comes from the forwards) and the more offensive D (Streit) out with lines that are theoretically more sound defensively.
In the Florida game, JT was primarily with Streit (9.5 min ES) and the Hamonic/AMac pair was primarily with the 2nd and 3rd lines and Eaton and Mottau barely played with FNGO at all, but relatively evenly with the 1st, 3rd, and 4th lines.
In Tampa, Steit again was mostly with line 1, but a lot with FNGO and it seems like Eaton/Mottau were spread relatively evenly for their TOI but kept away from the 4th line. (which proably helps to inflate the 4th line corsi/scoring chance numbers a bit).
Again this may suggest a problem with line matchings and pairings on the road, or just that Cappy is recognizing now how to effectively pair and shelter the D with appropriate lines now.
It would probably be more accurate to use the scoring chance and shift chart data for this though than to try and hypothesize with the H2H sheets, but it’s early and all those green bars give me vertigo.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
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Mottau and Eaton played abnormally well last game
But some of that can probably be explained by combinations.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Oct 27, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I have all the tables
but I didn’t know how many people were looking forward to me just dumping the tables into post. Plus I was trying to have some meaning come out of the numbers as opposed to just force feeding numbers down everyone’s throat.
As for the defense and their numbers, you have to remember that blocked and deflected shots don’t count, so, for example, there was one instance when Pittsburgh was pummeling the Isles and Eaton blocked two point blank shots, once with his hand, and in my eyes those are scoring chances, but according to the rules that were set up, they don’t count. Again, with Bailey’s point blank shot that he took forever to put on net that we allllll remember, that went off the defensemans leg and never made it to Fleury. So while I view that as one hell of a quality scoring opportunity, according to the guidelines I was told to follow, it doesn’t count.
And the times are correct. I go to ice tracker on NHL.com and double check the times of all the recorded shots, so they’re as official as they can get. The only ones I can;t double check are the shots that go wide, which so far have been at most 3 times a game, but at worst I would be off a second on those chances.
As the games go on and I get a handle on this and I’m able to post these every game or two, I’ll add all of the tables into the posts.
mocking opposing announcers and their horrible commentary since '89
by Chris McNally on Oct 27, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Eaton blocked two point blank shots, once with his hand, and in my eyes those are scoring chances, but according to the rules that were set up, they don’t count.
Yeah, that’s a challenge with this IMO. If Corsi is a proxy for puck possession (b/c it includes blocked shots), this, maybe, helps account for Sutton types who don’t possess the puck much but maybe have the “skill” of knowing how to keep the puck from hitting the net as often?
Oh hockey, you defy tidy descriptions.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Dos anyone know why subject lines may not pop up on mobile devices?
Don't feed the TROLL!...You have been warned.
by the maroon bird on Oct 27, 2011 9:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
No
been like that for a few days now…the app works fine. The mobile site, not so much. It’s not doing a great job of telling you when there are new comments either.
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
Website:Lighthouse HockeyTwitter: @KeithLHHockey
Yea
it seems to be random when it happens or doesn’t too. Weird.
Tavares is Tavares.
by afrosupreme on Oct 27, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you mind for records sake posting each game separately?
Also, so now we have scored what, the first game against Florida, @FLA, @TB, and Pitt? Or have I missed NYR, TB, and MIN games? (I know you didn’t have the Min game previously)
Thanks a lot!
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
I have them all
it took me a while to get Minnesota and thats why I was behind with posting them. And then when it came down to it, it seemed silly to post scoring chances from two weeks ago as a current post for people to read. Also like I told Keith, I wasn’t sure how many people wanted to peruse those charts in a post, they’re kind of tedious to sift through for the average reader.
I’m going to create a fan post with all of the tables to date hopefully in the next few days, so you’ll have all of the data for every game this season when I get that up. I’ve been trying to cross reference my data with the other teams who have been recording chance, but unfortunately most of our games so far have been against teams that aren’t participating, so we’ll just have to cross our fingers that I got everything right
mocking opposing announcers and their horrible commentary since '89
by Chris McNally on Oct 27, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll add
another vote to see them all. I know this stuff makes more sense over the long haul, but it’s also interesting to see when the data backs up or disputes what my eyes and brain were telling me.
Tavares is Tavares.
by afrosupreme on Oct 27, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Well Friday will be like Christmas then
bc Im gift wrapping everyone a post for tonights game with tables included!
mocking opposing announcers and their horrible commentary since '89
by Chris McNally on Oct 27, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Recommendation
Create a data dump site, either a generic blogspot thing (as I did) or even just a google spreadsheet.
Especially if you’ll fall behind occasionally (I know I did/do/will do), it’s easier for everyone. It keeps outdated games/tables out of the main story stream, and puts the data out there for those who want it.
Then you could just FanShot them upon creating, or just link to them when you do summaries.
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by George E. Ays on Oct 27, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Thats a good idea
Maybe I’ll set up a website, so if anyone wants to go back and review the data it will be easier than trying to search through posts. Youve been a ton of help so far George. Thanks.
mocking opposing announcers and their horrible commentary since '89
by Chris McNally on Oct 27, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm compiling it all myself, for a review after this weekend.
So thanks a lot Chris.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
http://twitter.com/#!/garik16
OT, gonna dump this here till preview, from Staple:
Nabokov in net for #Isles tonight in Pittsburgh. Milan Jurcina making his season debut, Mike Mottau scratched.
Twitter for BlackBerry® • 10/27/11 11:16 AM
NY Islanders, just one irrational free agent signing away from contention!
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by Keith Quinn on Oct 27, 2011 11:25 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Wow really?
I guess Cappy is going to have a short leash all season with the goalies. One bad game in Tampa (which really wasnt all his fault) and Montoya finds himself in the number 2 slot.
So glad to see the flailing snow angel in the press box
mocking opposing announcers and their horrible commentary since '89
by Chris McNally on Oct 27, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m now a little concerned Montoya might be hurt.
Tavares is Tavares.
by afrosupreme on Oct 27, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Ditto
i think he has been better than Nabby. Perhaps a Nabokov trade coming?
But best news is Jurcina in, Mottau out.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Oct 27, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the other possibility
Garth has someone really interested who wants to see him play back to back against a top team.
Tavares is Tavares.
by afrosupreme on Oct 27, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Nabokov deserves to start,
but so does Montoya. That’s a good problem to have.
I don’t think there is a trade in the works, or at least, I hope so.
After what happened last season, the Islanders would be irresponsible to trade Nabokov so early. What if Montoya goes down? You hand the crease full time to DiPietro?
For the first time in years they have two good, consistent goalies. Why give one away?
I agree
regarding the trade, but Montoya not playing for so long, after playing so well, is somewhat strange, no?
Tavares is Tavares.
Yes it's strange
I expected a more balanced rotation.
They probably see a wide improvement potential in Nabokov. They may like what they see and feel confident that extended play will bring back the Nabokov of old times.
I think he only trades Nabokov if he can bring back a good defenseman.
Perhaps even one that becomes a UFA this summer. The question: which direction has the best chance of leading Isles to the playoffs? Hard to say, because, like you say, if Montoya goes down after that, Isles could be in big trouble in goal.
But I do think even without Nabokov, Isles aren’t as thin in net as some teams.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Oct 27, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good luck charm back!
Snow Angel out:)
by Isle in Topanga on Oct 27, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions
I thought this was interestingly worded
NYIslanders
NYIslanders
Capuano said the lines will stay the same to start. Same forwards as Tuesday. #Isles
mocking opposing announcers and their horrible commentary since '89
maybe he's shifting around the d-pairings
streit-jurcina
amac-hamonic
eaton-staios???
screw homework, its all about islanders hockey
Possible
I would like to see how Staios looks without Streit.
Capuano on Mottau:
NYIslanders: Capuano said: “Mike (Mottau) has played extremely well for us. As have all our D. We want to get Jurcina back in.” #isles [http://twitter.com/#!/NYIslanders/status/129579407131160576]
Extremely well? Are you kidding me?
I would like to see how Staios looks without Streit.
You may very well not, too…
Tavares is Tavares.
by afrosupreme on Oct 27, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That first game might warrant the rolaids within arms reach
but itd be nice to see what we really have in him
mocking opposing announcers and their horrible commentary since '89
by Chris McNally on Oct 27, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
They honestly looked pretty good last game.
2nd and 4th lines played better than previous games, in my estimation.
by North Dakota Red Eagle on Oct 27, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Love this.
Right in line with what the Corsi reports are telling us. What’s amazing is that Rolston and Comeau always come out a little bit better than Bailey. Every game. Its like if they can just escape Bailey for a few minutes per game they can raise their Corsi. I don’t think Rolston or Comeau’s Corsi ratings mean much because they’ve played with Bailey so much. I really like Josh Bailey. I’m rooting for him and I really thought he’d break through this year but so far his numbers are just so awful its hard to believe. You can’t put any kind of positive spin on them. At least his last game was his least bad so far this year. See positive spin – I was wrong.
It is interesting
I keep wanting to go through the game shifts to see just when those differences are. It’s possible he’s used in a few situations as a defensive center without his usual wings.
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
