Bridgeport and Prospect Roundup 1/30

the guys who were supposed to be playing with tigers are now up w/ the big club and performing well, and we have a chock full of college and ohl players who should step in next year and be impact players at the ahl level

I love this prospect roundup segment.

Opinion Piece:

I’m not so sure you can get too excited about any one prospect, and at the same time you can’t get too disappointed.

I couldn’t tell you whether or not the 1 win in January is something to be concerned about. It’s definitely not a positive thing. To assume the reason BBST’s are not doing well is because of Milbury’s reign of terror and the fact a lot of eligible players are already up with the big club doesn’t exactly fill me with positivity either. This could mean that such players are being robbed of development potential by being overwhelmed by NHL talent.

Since Bailey’s hip flexor issue he’s been quite frankley … horrible. He hasn’t stood out to me at all. I’m not sure if it’s mental or physical, but it’s definitely affecting him. He had an outstanding stay with the BBST, so I am more inclined to believe he’s got a mental bug-a-boo playing against the faster / bigger NHL opposition. I think he looked much better the last 3 months of his rookie year, than he does now.

The fact that we have some good Junior / NCAA players on the cusp of joining BBST’s doesn’t really do much to help the Islanders in the next 2 – 3 years. Look at one of our “draft steal” favorites. Justin DiBenedetto had a dominating performance on a line with fan favorite Matt Martin in their last year with the sans Stamkos Sarnia Sting. Now Justin is 9-2-11 in 28 games this seaon and 15-10-25 in 84 AHL games over two seasons. Hardly impressive with his talent projections. He’s 22 years old, and after his last 2 OHL seasons, you’d think he’d be pushing a center on the Isles down the depth charts.

I’ll tell you who I’m excited about as far as rookies and prospects go. John Tavares. I know… I’m captian obvious … and YES … He’s still a prospect. He’s only 20 years old. JT has had his bumps along the way … and at the risk of never winning another FIG challenge … I’ll tell you this much… I believe Johnny Tavares is going to tear it up the last 33 or so games. I see him getting between 15 – 18 goals the rest of the way. He’ll owe it to the return of Okposo and the emergence of Grabner, which gives the Islanders a lil more “teeth” to their offensive “Buzz Saw” … not that the Isles’ offense is impressive… It’s just that Okposo & Grabs gives the opposition another line to worry about.

Back to the non-NHL prospects. In simple terms I believe that if a prospect can’t dominate at the amateur level they are playing at … odds are against them that they’ll be able to do that against the worlds best hockey players.

Andres Lee and Casey Cizikas are definitely good feeling stories … but so was Justin DiBenedetto … and Trivino and Ness when they were drafted. Look. DiBo was the last player the Isles picked in the 6th round. He’s already beat the odds, and is a professional hockey player. He’s a depth center now, and after his ELC is done, Garth has to determine if DiBo has any more to give.

As far as Kirill “squared” is concerned… We have one (Kabanov) that is considered a highly skilled loose cannon that is still far away from making an impact physically and skillfully. Honestly … look how far down on the scoring leaders sheet for the MAINEiacs he is. He’s a second thought healthy scratch for a decent QMJHL team.

Petrov … 8 – 9 – 17 in 42 GP in a pro-league that is considered sub-standard to the NHL. I’d love to have him on the Isles … but. He’s not really putting up impressive numbers. Could it be that he’s not playing with talent that can support his stats? Who knows. What I do know is that 8 goals in 42 games in ANY league isn’t really impressive. Yes!! The KHL and most Euro leagues have less scoring due to the larger ice surface. I took that into account.

All this being said … I think the Islanders have a “Good” crop of prospects, that they haven’t seen in over a decade. That isn’t saying much since it’s been a long time since the Islanders have even put the proper focus on developing players … but it’s a good start.

Additionally… I think light years more important than our opinions, and determining which players are on the horizon is comparing our current prospect corps against other teams’. Are our prospects at the top of the scoring leader charts against their peers over the past several draft classes, and up coming draft class? Does our AHL team’s players dominate against other teams? Do our players at the Bridge dominate the scoring charts? How are our defenseman performing at all levels of hockey against their draft peers?

Here’s a big one. How many All-Stars, WJC players are among Islander prospects at all levels. The bad news. Only rookie Michael Grabner (skills competition attendee) made any noise at the NHL level… and he wasn’t even a prospect. He’s a now player…. drafted and developed by another team. He’s not a success story for our amateur scouting staff. He’s a success story for our pro-scouting staff and a lil bit of luck that he was available on the waiver wire… and a good pickup by Garth.

The good news? There are more positives in prospect development than there has been in the past. The question is, when will they emerge to their full potential to not only make the Islanders … but to help the Islanders beat the stuffing out of the rest of the league.

It’s nice getting these prospect roundups, because it gives us an opportunity to see how our guys are doing on a week to week basis. We can’t get too excited or to down based on a week’s performance. I think the best metric to measure the Isles’ collective prospect potential is measuring players’ progress against each other, and other teams’ prospects.

If you believe Hockey’s Futures … The Islanders are ranked 17th in prospect rankings. Not very impressive for a team that has made the playoffs only one time since the lockout. I know I know. There’s the Mad Mike factor … but here’s another factor … He hasn’t drafted a player since the 2005 entry draft. FIVE drafts removed. He’s not much of a factor anymore, except perhaps risidually on the quality of the Islanders’ prospect pool.

Also, recent 1st round picks, Bailey and Tavares are up with the NHL and aren’t included in the HF rankings … Consider this though. Other teams also have young guns and stud veterans already playing in the NHL … and neither Bails or JT have thus far blew the doors off the NHL. JT may be the only player with the potential among the two to do so. Assuming they both do … they still need lots of high quality help.

Then there is the question of how long do we keep these players in the AHL to (commonly used term) “OVER RIPEN?” … Just like the model franchise, Detroit Redwings does. Ask yourself this… Is that really the strategy of the Redwings? Maybe. Or perhaps it’s the fact that their prospects have all the time in the world to develop because their is no room on the parent club’s roster due to their high quality NHL talent spread over the entire roster.

I just wanted to put this all out there. Something to think about. I tend to manage my expectations with a more tempered view of our prospects… Call it the Scott LaChance factor.

What he did after going to BPT shows that he is the kind of guy that takes adversity and uses it to make him better. I do think he will come out good. I would also like him to play with some better players. He seems to overthink things right now and that might come from not trusting the guys he’s with. One thing to keep in mind too is he was not drafted as a high scorer. He is meant to be a shut down two way center. It is quite possible that he has been stuck playing a more defensive role to cover Comeau & Schremp’s asses. I know I’m a bit of a Bailey apologist but I have not seen anything off the puck to get me worried about him.

Has a better shot too. He is not as much a garbage goal man. There’s no real way to know how he will transition but 3rd line 15-20 goals is a reasonable expectation. He could surprise and be a 30+ but you cannot really project that. He’s been on a tear after missing 4 weeks injured which is a good sign. That’s the kind of resiliency you like to see. I’ve caught about 6 North Dakota games on TV this year and he’s looked good in most of them. I would think he get’s his shot at least.